Hero open 2x utg AKo w Kd 18BB eff

Villain 1 flats sb
Villain 2 completes..

Flop AJ6 w J6 of dd

Villain 1 rips 2.5x as chip leader 2 15 players left and hero is 6 of 15 before hand and if hero folds he is 8 of 15?

Can we ever find the fold w AK here?

What does villains range look like in your head?

How many places paid? I'm guessing you're already ITM? It would come down to ICM considerations for me. I'd put him on a flush-draw/combo-draw heavy range like JJ, 66, AdXd, QdTd, and some random diamond suited-connectors. More bluff heavy (more suited-connectors, fewer sets) if it's a spot he can put a lot of ICM pressure on you. More value heavy if it isn't.

Kd possibly isn't super relevant because I think it mostly blocks combo-draws you don't really want him to have (given ICM considerations). Although I guess it blocks some super spazzy KdXx bluffs which are more or less probable depending on the stakes you're playing.

75 places paid… 15th was a pay bump next pay bump was 9.

Can we ever fold?

Fwiw this hand was not played by me.

My horse played it and thinks it’s a fist bump call.

I think he was in fine shape if he folds. Lot of tournament left.

Obviously folding is fine. Folding is always fine when you're facing an overbet shove for your tournament life in a multi-way pot and you only have a pair.

After running some numbers I think it's a relatively easy fold. Hero is likely behind villain's range even if villain only has pure value very rarely.

I haven't run the sim but I'm fairly sure villain has no open shoves here in theory, so it's tough to range them without some indication as to their playstyle. A6s and 66 make sense for value hands, perhaps some AJo and AJs, JJ almost certainly rips pre at 18eff. AdXd is possible but this hand really wants to check to let others put in chips with parts of their range that are way behind. I wouldn't be surprised if they show up with something like AT or AQ given the non-standard line. For bluffs there aren't all that many with the Kd blocked. QdTd, Qd9d, Td9d, Td8d, 9d8d, 8d7d.

It's quite a weird spot. I wouldn't be surprised if it's a fold with the Kd specifically. Hero will have enough AA, JJ, 66, AJ and AdXd to call unexploitably, and then mix in some calls with AK/AQ with no diamonds to maximally unblock flush draws.

That makes sense if villain is a skilled, rational player or if hero is try to play some super theory-oriented strategy. In reality, the dude probably had a flush draw or a strong hand that he didn't want to get out-drawn (IMO). Agreed he probably doesn't have much JJ, I didn't include it when running my equity calculations.

I agree w all this

If I read the board correctly, all of the nut flush draws are available. If 66,AJ, A6s and AQ are available in full and villain can do this with a fair amount of flush draws plus a few other random ones, we're probably around 50-51% equity. If any other Ax or random stuff shows up, we're in even better shape. Just adding a few AT combos that we dominate changes things significantly. The Kd is slightly relevant, but probably only blocks KQ/KT/K9 specifically so it's not that huge.

Since we need 41% for this be a break even call, I can't see folding unless the payout structure is such that there's a huge risk premium here. (i.e., we're not ITM) If this was a final table scenario where we may have a 10%+ risk premium, I can maybe get behind folding. But with 15 left our risk premium isn't gonna be that high.

If the Ad was blocked on the board I'd be much more inclined to fold.

EDIT: One important note here - we actually prefer the Kd here, because while it does block a few flush draws, it also gives us a small amount of runner-runner equity we wouldn't have otherwise.