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16s: 99 overs vs decent villain 16s: 99 overs vs decent villain

07-19-2008 , 11:54 PM
Poker Stars $15+$1 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t10/t20 Blinds - 9 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

MP1: t1730
MP2: t1310
CO: t1190
BTN: t1470
SB: t1480
Hero (BB): t1500
UTG: t1530
UTG+1: t1790
UTG+2: t1500

Pre Flop: Hero is BB with 9 9
3 folds, MP1 calls t20, MP2 raises to t80, 3 folds, Hero calls t60, 1 fold

Flop: (t190) 7 8 4 (2 players)
Hero checks, MP2 bets t100, Hero ?

At the most, he has TT+, AQ+. If he has AQ+, he probably wont fire again unless he hits the turn. He thinks I am set mining and not drawing, so he may even give a free card on the turn. At least, this is how I expect most good multitabling regs play.

Worth it to call here or no?
16s: 99 overs vs decent villain Quote
07-19-2008 , 11:55 PM
pretty easy flat and reeval turn here. if we raise to 350, we cant really call a shove because i doubt hes doing that without QQ+. by calling we can get him to think twice about TT-JJ, and also can bet if checked to as his check on this board on the turn would probably be weak, ie AK/Q cbet.
16s: 99 overs vs decent villain Quote
07-20-2008 , 12:45 AM
yep what cawley said , if hes a decent player he isnt going to double barrell bluff you often
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07-20-2008 , 01:50 AM
in these spots,

Does anyone like leading out for 100-120 here?

only monsters shove, and Ax hands flat imo.
16s: 99 overs vs decent villain Quote
07-20-2008 , 08:13 AM
If he's more than just decent, he'll have an easy time putting you on a hand once you cc pre, c/c flop and check turn.
With that said, I think the call pf is pretty bad. It's for like 5% of effective stacks, OOP vs an opponent who likely won't give us a tremendous lot of action if we flop gin, and one we can't play a small overpair comfortably against.

If I had made the mistake of calling pf, I'd probably bet/fold the flop. If you do check, you are faced with a bet nearly 100% of the time, and you either fold to it (making you lose to AK/AQ sans cc, where a bet would have won the hand), or you call praying that he's got overs and slow down.

Yeah, I'm pretty sure I'm spot on here vs a winning reg.
16s: 99 overs vs decent villain Quote
07-20-2008 , 08:42 AM
Its 4% of stack (60 to call) so call pf is fine, on the flop i give up though.
16s: 99 overs vs decent villain Quote
07-20-2008 , 09:37 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by eurythmech

If I had made the mistake of calling pf, I'd probably bet/fold the flop. If you do check, you are faced with a bet nearly 100% of the time, and you either fold to it (making you lose to AK/AQ sans cc, where a bet would have won the hand), or you call praying that he's got overs and slow down.
Agree. What is your plan on the turn if:

1) overcard
2) blank
3) Another clubs

appears on the next street?
16s: 99 overs vs decent villain Quote
07-20-2008 , 10:41 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by eurythmech
If he's more than just decent, he'll have an easy time putting you on a hand once you cc pre, c/c flop and check turn.
With that said, I think the call pf is pretty bad. It's for like 5% of effective stacks, OOP vs an opponent who likely won't give us a tremendous lot of action if we flop gin, and one we can't play a small overpair comfortably against.

If I had made the mistake of calling pf, I'd probably bet/fold the flop. If you do check, you are faced with a bet nearly 100% of the time, and you either fold to it (making you lose to AK/AQ sans cc, where a bet would have won the hand), or you call praying that he's got overs and slow down.

Yeah, I'm pretty sure I'm spot on here vs a winning reg.
u sure this is a bad call pf? i had decided here with 99 was a pretty good spot to call. people don't fold overpairs... if you stack him 1 out of 23 times ur good.
16s: 99 overs vs decent villain Quote
07-20-2008 , 11:01 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Into2ndWind
if you stack him 1 out of 23 times ur good.
wat
16s: 99 overs vs decent villain Quote
07-20-2008 , 12:18 PM
I would say his range is not "at the most" AQ+ TT+ I would say his range is definately that, maybe not even as low as TT. I'd flat call the flop and try to get a cheap showdown. Fold to 2nd barrel.
16s: 99 overs vs decent villain Quote
07-20-2008 , 09:15 PM
it really is a super standard call preflop im unsure what your thinking here euryth, 80%+ MP1 will call behind us as his range includes alot of pairs and faced with those kind of odds im sure he is calling. tell me if im wrong but folding 99 in this spot would be really bad.
16s: 99 overs vs decent villain Quote
07-20-2008 , 11:22 PM
yeah folding 99 pf here is horrible.

Even if the raiser is good, your call invited other callers that you could stack.

You can call more often for set value if you expect a multi way pot almost regardless of one opponents skill level.

Maybe I'm wrong, but I now like the bet out about 120. If he raises, he has an overpair. If he calls or folds, he has 2 overs, so be any safe turn.
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07-21-2008 , 03:43 AM
The thought of folding pre is pretty funny to me.
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07-21-2008 , 05:08 AM
Are we saying that villain stacks off with AK on Axx boards here?
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07-21-2008 , 05:40 AM
Without Mp1's limp I fold this pre all day. However in this case calling seems pretty standard since itll usually be multiway and his range will be slightly stronger.
16s: 99 overs vs decent villain Quote
07-21-2008 , 08:13 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by eurythmech
If he's more than just decent, he'll have an easy time putting you on a hand once you cc pre, c/c flop and check turn.
With that said, I think the call pf is pretty bad. It's for like 5% of effective stacks, OOP vs an opponent who likely won't give us a tremendous lot of action if we flop gin, and one we can't play a small overpair comfortably against.
1. So fold? If yes, it looks like it goes against the standard theory of 5-10% rule. And there is also MP1 calling more often than not, so I don't get how this could not be superstandard setmining situation.
2. If you say it is easy to put us on range, what that range is? My idea is that if that range includes 99 as well as 88 or AK, then even if he has easy time to put us on range, he will have hard times to decide how to play.

OP, I call this PF all the time.
16s: 99 overs vs decent villain Quote
07-21-2008 , 08:18 AM
1. I think calling anywhere near 10% of your stack to setmine in an STT is mindnumbingly bad. There is something called the 5/10 rule that authors use to get readers play something that is approximately good, this much is true. But it's obviously not thought out with STTs in mind, and it's not dogma. I think 5% is usually pushing it - especially against a half decent opponent.

2. Are you seriously suggesting that we'd c/c this flop with AK? If I was villain, I'd put him on something like 99-JJ with 80% certainity, almost regardless of turncard.
16s: 99 overs vs decent villain Quote
07-21-2008 , 08:56 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by eurythmech
Are we saying that villain stacks off with AK on Axx boards here?

Just curious, are you getting away from TPTK this early?

I think PF call is standard. But I'm calling to set mine, not go broke with just 9/9 here.
16s: 99 overs vs decent villain Quote
07-21-2008 , 09:15 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by eurythmech
1. I think calling anywhere near 10% of your stack to setmine in an STT is mindnumbingly bad. There is something called the 5/10 rule that authors use to get readers play something that is approximately good, this much is true. But it's obviously not thought out with STTs in mind, and it's not dogma. I think 5% is usually pushing it - especially against a half decent opponent.

2. Are you seriously suggesting that we'd c/c this flop with AK? If I was villain, I'd put him on something like 99-JJ with 80% certainity, almost regardless of turncard.
1. I didn't say I am fan of 5/10, but I think there is some serious math behind and calling e.g. 7% should be still good. But here we're talking about almost precisely 4% (60/1480), and you explicitely called it mistake - which implies you don't even think it is close.

2. I am not, that was an example. My problem is that I have no clue how to play AK here (PF & flop too). I'd like to hear your opinion how to play AK here. But I think sets are often played this way, since few players open them, and c/r seems too strong. So I'd probably c/c set here. I am not decent in your eyes though.
16s: 99 overs vs decent villain Quote
07-21-2008 , 09:46 AM
Really need some more info for this... why is MP2s stack 1310 already? We are still 10/20, was he limping? raising? betting bad hands? What exactly.

Personally I don't think there is any great way to play this flop with the 99.. you can make arguments for check folding, check calling, maybe even check raising here.

I think it is ok to set mine with 99 this early... In SNGs I will do something like this just cause its really tough to play this hand OOP and I don't want to get crazy with 99 yet. I think its like 5% of our stack that we risk, and sure we wont get stacked 1 in 20, but who cares? You gotta gamble a little bit, and trying to hit a set in level 1 is the best time for it. Set mining in level 4 is disaster.

That being said.. check fold the flop then.. cause its just difficult to play.. its an overpair but a really bad situation. Much different than having KK on Q83.
16s: 99 overs vs decent villain Quote
07-21-2008 , 10:15 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by djs1070
Just curious, are you getting away from TPTK this early?
Against someone who I never have beat when the money goes in? Of course not. This would include most villain I'd lable as "decent".

Quote:
Originally Posted by 7castle
1. I didn't say I am fan of 5/10, but I think there is some serious math behind and calling e.g. 7% should be still good. But here we're talking about almost precisely 4% (60/1480), and you explicitely called it mistake - which implies you don't even think it is close.

2. I am not, that was an example. My problem is that I have no clue how to play AK here (PF & flop too). I'd like to hear your opinion how to play AK here. But I think sets are often played this way, since few players open them, and c/r seems too strong. So I'd probably c/c set here. I am not decent in your eyes though.
Well, you did mention it as if it was some sort of authority that needs to be considered. Or as if it's got much merit in an STT situation. I'd be amazed if you showed me some math that says calling 7% of effective stacks to setmine is clearly good.

I'm not sure where you got the idea that this has got much to do with our stack from, most certainly what matters if effective stacks. Sure if MP1 comes along it's a different situation altogether, but as long as he doesn't (and he didn't), it's closer to 5% (4.65).

I don't see how using AK as an example serves any use, since it's so obviously removed from his range. AK is a very standard call preflop and a c/f on the flop, unless we have the nut flush draw - which'd give us some options.

I think sets aren't usually something we need to consider, since hero should have 88/77/44 here so seldomly.
16s: 99 overs vs decent villain Quote
07-21-2008 , 10:39 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by eurythmech
I think sets aren't usually something we need to consider, since hero should have 88/77/44 here so seldomly.
I'd be playing 88/77/44 here all day.. so, just cause you wouldn't doesnt mean the hero couldnt (i.e. if you were in the villains spot, you should still worry about it). But this is off the subject.
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07-21-2008 , 10:43 AM
Yeah, some people do fold 44, though. Or even 88.
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07-21-2008 , 11:23 AM
I would call him even with deuces preflop...especially with deuces...basically I would setmine in this spot all the time.
16s: 99 overs vs decent villain Quote
07-23-2008 , 07:00 AM
Eury if you aren't set mining for less than 5% of stack, out of the big blind, in a multi-way pot, with a raiser, when do you ever set mine? Do you wait for 3 limpers and the button?
16s: 99 overs vs decent villain Quote

      
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