Just a bit of background to this situation, is that I am at the final table in 3rd place in chips. Stacks are not too deep with 7 for the 9 between 13 and 20 BBs. There is only one stack below 10 BBs, with a 7 BB stack.

I felt a bit of pressure at this final table, at top prize is $1K, and 9th place pays only $90. I had a memorable blunder about a year ago where I was playing for over $1K at a final table and I ended up calling off on a jam with AQo to a LAG chip leader. I was 3rd out of 7 at the time. LAG player had AKo, and I busted. I totally regretted missing out on a decent amount of money there. I am always looking for a chance to redeem myself from that, and anytime I can make a final table that pays $1K that is nice, but it isn't common. My current buy ins right now are between $3 and $17.

As far as the hand in question, it is folded around to the button, where he jams 13BBs. His steal stats seem fairly LAG, as he is around 44% to steal. His VPIP and PFR stats are 25%/20%. At this point I have A9o, with a 19BB stack.

It was a tough spot and I only had enough time to think about a few things. His stack of 13BBs is second lowest on the table, above the 7 BB stack. I realized that if I call and lose, I'd basically be tied for last on the table in chips. With a 3rd place stack, that would be quite crushing for my ego. The stacks were fairly close together, so its not like my 3rd place stack guarantees a top 3 placing.

Had I won, I would have been 2nd in chips on the table. I didn't have time to realize that part though. It also got in my mind those situations where I make the correct call with the better hand, and I still lose. In the end I folded, and this hand was the biggest question mark for me on the day.

What do you guys think about this spot? What are the main things I should be considering? With online poker, there is just the time limit that affects decision making, not to mention other tables being played as well. I just want to be able to prioritize and focus on the key things when making this call/fold spot.

Ofcourse the main things would be pot odds, as well as ICM. The pot odds on the call would have been calling 121K to win 158K, or approx 1.3 to 1. I would have needed 43.4% equity here based on that. As far as the prize pay outs, they were as follows:

1- 1000
2- 725
3- 525
4- 380
5- 280
6- 200
7- 150
8- 110
9- 90

In hindsight, I wish I called. I think the thought of losing that hand and going out 9th stopped me from pulling the trigger. But let me know what you guys think, because I still can't tell whether this play was a big mistake, small mistake, close situation, not close situation, or the correct play. Thanks!



PokerStars - 5000/10000 Ante 1250 NL - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

CO: 48.55 BB
BTN: 13.3 BB
SB: 17.79 BB
Hero (BB): 19.34 BB
UTG: 6.98 BB
UTG+1: 16.32 BB
MP: 30.78 BB
MP+1: 15.99 BB
MP+2: 16.45 BB

9 players post ante of 0.13 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.62 BB) Hero has 9 A

fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, BTN raises to 13.17 BB and is all-in, fold, fold

BTN wins 3.62 BB

I would probably call here. I think its marginal though.

If I were BTN I'd be jamming 100% of the time I'm raising. Our A9 would be higher than a 50% equity because he is likely jamming with any Ax, and KXs, any two Broadways, and any PP.

The problem is that this guy may minraise with <15 bb's with marginal hands. But if we haven't seen any evidence of that, I would call.

You shouldn't be trying to redeem yourself from a bust out of a tournament a year ago, nor thinking about how your ego will feel if you lose a hand. Those are strange things to mention and make me think that you are allowing cognitive biases to manipulate your play. Forget all that background noise and focus on what decision is optimal in the long run, then play until you reach the long run. That is the way to beat the variance simulator that is MTT poker.

This hand actually seems quite close. I'd guess you should call something like 55+ KQs ATo+ A8s+ vs an optimal range. If that's the case A9o is right on the border and may be a call if villain is shoving too wide, or if they for example always minraise QQ+ AK unbalanced. You have the info to plug it into an ICM calculator and see what the actual ranges look like and what deviations you can consider.

Yeah this is as simple as plugging into an ICM calculator.

By chipEV you should be ahead vs. range, but you need to figure out the actual cash money equity of your stack if you win vs. if you lose. That should let you figure out how much equity you need vs. villain's range to make this a +$EV call. Then figure out what you think your opponent's range is and whether A9o is good enough against it.

I'm calling.

semi fist pump call. You aren't behind many hands.

Thanks for the feedback guys. Ya in hindsight, it should be a call.

Ya for sure I should not be thinking about how tilted I would be about calling and losing, or past blunders in similar situations. I think the best way for me to alleviate this is to just keep playing and winning and getting more experience being at final tables that have prize payouts of over $1K. That way I will get used to those situations and be more numb to them, and be able to live with what ever result may happen, and just focus on making the correct play.

Considering past errors is a good way to learn. It's known as self-corrective feedback in psychology. There is evidence to suggest that corrective feedback is actually a more effective learning strategy than error avoidance (https://www.annualreviews.org/doi/10...-010416-044022).

Crucially, though, is that the decision being evaluated was an error. You seem to think that your AQo bustout from a year ago was inherently a mistake because the opponent showed up with a better hand, AKo. This is called results-oriented thinking or outcome bias, a form of confirmation bias. Poker is a game of ranges, and it's quite possible that your stack off with AQo was indeed the correct move vs the opponent's range.

Try to engage in objective analysis. Ignore the actual outcome and focus on the average expected outcome.

You are thirsty for knowledge and I commend you. Keep it up.