Total 162 entrants and top 17 were paid. Down to 19 left and the blinds were 3000-6000 can't remember the ante but I think it was 750. This was about 2 weeks ago so my memory is a bit foggy. I had a stack of about 75k. Table is 9 handed and I open UTG for 17000 with AQo. My opponents know I'm not playing many hands so I figure this UTG raise will look strong and get me some blinds and antes close to the bubble. UTG1 folds but UTG2 thinks for a long time before she flats. She is not a loose player at all so I'm actually suprised by her call here. Everyone else folds.

Flop: 10h 8c 7s I check oop and villain checks.
Turn: 10h 8c 7s 5h I check again, villain checks.
River: 10h 8c 7s 5h 6h

This is where I try for it. I figured if she hit this board, she would have def bet it on the turn (if not the flop). So now i'm putting her on something like AJ, KQs or a small pair like 3's. I've got less than 60k left and am in the blind next hand. I figure a shove here looks way too weak so I disguise my bet as a value bet, repping something like 99 or 44, maybe hearts. I bet out 31k, leaving me with only a few big blinds behind. Sure enough, villain moves all in and I fold after some hollywooding. She didn't show but told me she had AJh but who knows. My question is, where did I go wrong here? I thought the river bet was ok in case she did have a hand like 22 or 33. Sadly, I went out in 19th, 2 hands later in the SB. Thanks for the help.

I play Venetian daily 4-5 times a wk and sometimes throw in a Aria. I feel like with blinds this high, and close to bubble, u should be able to raise 2-2.5X and accomplish the same thing. Raise to 13k or 14k max, that way if you want to fire a small C bet of 10-15k on the flop & have to fold you still have a managable stack. If villian has range of no pair hands it will be hard for them to continue on that flop with just overs, if she did have AJh and u c bet, she shoves or raises and u muck, but still have more chips.

With 13xBB, standard 2+2 play is to open shove. AQ is strong enough to push UTG and might be difficult to play postflop.

I would just give up versus the early position caller on this flop. Aweful flop for AQ or to represent anything on. Usually the caller is ahead.

Not sure what river bet accomplishes, as I don't know if villain folds a better hand often.

Dont play that much live mtts anymore, but with 12.5bb, isnt that an autoshove given how big the blinds are ?

Yeah also if villain has air, he would probably have bet the flop or turn. Right now he probably has a small pair or something.

I totally agree with you. AQ is a witch to play oop. looking back I guess its a fold or open shove, even as UTG. The reason I bet was to specifically bluff out 22 33 or maybe even AK or another AQ as I did see her as a tight player who only played quality hands. I guess this range of hands to try and bluff was too thin though compared with all the other hands she could have had. Oh well. Live and learn

Hey there. Suprised you don't like Aria better. I used to play Venetian all the time but the Aria is structured a little better and is a little deeper. Plus it starts an hour later and i'm a lazy ass. I agree with your input on the opening raise amount. I guess I was trying to look strong as a TAG UTG because with AQ, I really don't want any callers and am just trying to get blinds before the bubble. But yeah, makes sense that 2.2x raise should be standard with any of my raises at that point. I agree with the other poster though that in this spot with only about 14 BB I should ship it if i'm gonna raise. If I had a bigger stack, then 2-2.5x is correct. I think the sizing of my raise was a little goofy and put me in a bad spot.

FYP, dont ever fold there, you will lose alot of your stack going through the blinds and you WILL get called by worse.

How much realistically do you think I could get called by worse in that spot when it's so close to money bubble and I have a tight image raising UTG?

never played this tourney but I guess your stack is not one of the short stacks (nor the biggest stack either), aka open shoving is not bad whatsoever but just min raise pre if ur going to raise. need to cbet that flop (yes lame annoying w/e u wanna call it). Do you think she's good enough to flat with tt-aa?

obvi open shoving would be the correct play imo. what was avg stack?

I know I was close to average and thinking back, I have the hand exactly right but I think my stack may have been a bit bigger because I think I was closer to 15 BB. Average was probably about 105k and I was probably between 85-90k.