Full Tilt Poker $11 + $1 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t15/t30 Blinds - 9 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

Hero (BTN): t1485 M = 33
SB: t1470 M = 32.67
BB: t1500 M = 33.33
UTG: t1500 M = 33.33
UTG+1: t1500 M = 33.33
UTG+2: t1500 M = 33.33
MP1: t1500 M = 33.33
MP2: t1470 M = 32.67
CO: t1575 M = 35

Pre Flop: (t45) Hero is BTN with A K
UTG calls t30, 1 fold, UTG+2 raises to t135, 3 folds, Hero calls t135, 2 folds, UTG calls t105

Flop: (t450) T 8 3 (3 players)
UTG checks, UTG+2 checks, Hero checks

Turn: (t450) J (3 players)
UTG checks, UTG+2 checks, Hero checks

River: (t450) Q (3 players)
UTG checks, UTG+2 bets t150, Hero raises to t300, UTG folds, UTG+2 raises to t1365 all in, Hero?

UTG+2 is a pretty good reg at these stakes. He has a 10%+ ROI over like 5000 games. I think his range to iso-raise is going to be a pretty standard TT+, AQ+, but his range to check that flop and that turn is exactly AK and AQ. I min-raised him on the river because I think it's the best way to get value from AQ if he decides he wants to pay me off. Thoughts on any street and PF are appreciated.

I really think you need to make it at least 550 or something to look like you are trying to commit without committing. Minraise isn't the way to go here imo because it is way too lolihaztehnuts. No way I am folding (megastation ITT) as played cause we chop often and are getting the right price without him spazzing out at all. FWIW in his shoes, he shove shove any AK combo with a spade 100% of the time.

I think you played it fine all streets, but I think the river min-raise puts us in a spot to get valuetowned by a better hand or put to the test when he also has AK. I doubt he's ever play a set/two pair this way on flop/turn and certainly not 3-bet jam river.

It's likely you both had AK in this spot. I think he would have bet a FD on the flop (AK or AJ of spades if the latter is even included in his iso-raising range).

As played, I think we call get half (maybe he overplays 99 on river?). It may be nitty and missing out on value, but I would consider flatting river because I don't see him paying us off light.

RA

Shove pre

shudda made it 400 on river... he has AK veryy often here.. but i guess u can call and pray he doesnt have AK spades

Is this a standard move from a good regular, betting a FD in this spot?

What?


I like the line until river - i would bet more and call if he shoves.

Isn't any river raise going to be "LOLIHAZEHNUTZ" against a thinking player? I mean, I flat here than most regs (I flat QQ+ here a ton), but I never have AQ in this spot and the absolute only hand I check on the flop and turn and then raise on the river is AK. Plus, from the way the villain played it, the only hand I can possibly get value from is AQ. I think it's more likely that he tards and calls a min-raise with AQ than it is that he tards and calls a bigger raise with AQ.

I would say it's pretty close either way. If he bets, I fold AK, maaybe fold JJ and get it in with TT (if I called with it) and QQ+. So, you fold some better hands, and get it in with decent equity against others. The decision would be based on how often he thinks I have KK or AA in this spot.

But, if he had, say AK, the turn seems like a must bet. you have a ton of outs and can probably fold some better hands and I can't have too many hands that beat him.

The problem with minraising is that flatting is clearly better imo because we are getting less value when we level him into calling with worse. As is, we are just getting worse odds to call (making it more correct to fold a chop).

Interesting spot and I concede I might be missing something.

I don't really follow this. You're arguing that raise large>flat>minraise?

I assume we're comparing the options of raising larger versus min-raising. Your argument seems to be that if we min-raise, we might then be able to fold to his reship, which is bad. There's an easy solution to this problem: just min-raise and never plan on folding. Giving ourselves more options cannot be bad unless we fail to choose the right one.

Raise seems silly to me A. If this guy is good and we know him he'd have to be about 20 beers deep to call here with AQ because it's sooooo obviously not good ever B. We let the donk overcall with w/e stupid hand if we flat C. If we're raising so that we can call a reraise to chop at best, well that just seems dumb

With regards to larger>=flat>small, I guess I am saying we aren't being rewarded enough when we have the nut flush and he calls hoping to chop.

It helps if we have strong reads that he is capable of turning some hands like AQsx into a bluff. I also think we should literally always raise AKsx here, and probably AKxs too. I guess I am still a little undecided if he makes it here with worse that calls or bluff 3bets enough that raising is justified.

The way this hand played out, solid villain's range looks likes 99+ and AQ+. The way the hand played out, this really only looks like AKo and AKs. I know this is a uber narrow range but if he is going to raise a limper pre, he will always lead flop and turn with overpairs to protect/get value from draws, and would certainly bet any set he may have on the turn if he decides to be tricky and check flop. Really gross spot but would villain 4bet AKo here for value? It's close.. but I'd fold as he has a flush here more often than AK imo.

He can certainly have AJss imo, but probably bets turn fwiw.

I really don't think solid regs will raise AJs here, though it certainly is the bottom of his range and IS possible.

Depending on the limper it is standard from later position imo, and can be fine from where he is at.

I agree, but the more likelier holdings are AK,AKs

I actually totally forgot about the random in this hand. That makes me think flatting is probably better to get the random to call. I think it's correct that I'm very unlikely to get value from AQ.

Agree, agree.

I don't see him checking twice with the nut flush draw, you two seeming disinterested in the pot, and having the initiative of last aggressive action.

RA

He either has AJs, cooler AKs, or sucks and has QQ. Technically it's prob a fold since you only tie or lose if he's rly good postflop.

Not this

river rr has to be bigger. Call shove... Reg isn't making it 135 after limpet with a range much wider then JJ,QQ,KK,AKs

if he has AK of spades so be it.

if he has AJss here I want to play 5000 games with him. I don't see a winning reg opening AJss with limper

I don't see anyone opening AJss with a limper

I would really expect him to bet the flop with two overcards and nut flush draw. If not that, when he gets a gutshot on the turn as well, it looks like a good spot for a semi bluff. I'd also expect him to bet TT+ for value on the flop or at least turn. That makes me think he has AQ or AKo (also expect him to bet tptk with fd on the turn if he has AJs). The river bet only really makes sense with AK, as I think c/c a normally sized bet would be the right play with AQ. I don't think he will fold the straight if he has it, especially if he has a spade, and we're obviously crushed with a flush. He might call a min raise with a set or AQ but those seem unlikely for him to have, and we put ourselves in a really bad spot if he shoves.
I flat the river and expect to split. As played, I still call and expect to split, but I'm ready to kick myself when he turns over a flush

My options are RR bigger, minRR and flat. The point of raising (I assume) is to get the reg to pay off with a worse hand and in this spot, he can only really have AQ for a worse hand. If I raise larger, I think it's pretty clear that he's less likely to pay off with AQ. Sure, a smaller raise is very LOLIHAZTHENUTZ, but a larger raise screams that as well, so I'd rather have him have insane pot odds to try and overcome that.

But, better than both is probably flatting. I initially forgot about the random in this hand. He might be willing to call with all kinds of junk which will make what is very likely a chop a better deal for me. So, I now think it's flat>RR small>>>>RR large

Oh and BTW, he had AK naturally.