Yes, I can put this into HRC, but I’m curious what you guys think. Villain is a younger kid. It’s the 2nd orbit.

Day 2 ITM. We have 15bb villain has 12bb

Folds to LJ who opens to 2bb. Folds to us in the SB.

What does your shoving range look like? Is it tighter than if they had 15bb? In this specific hand I had QJs

I think I would let this go.

My shoving range aside from AQ+/AJs/99+ would include some AXs because it blocks big A hands. Because its a younger kid I would likely include AJo/88 and ATs (though I have busted like 4 times recently with AJo including twice in the money).

I think if aggro and young- I’m fine shoving sometimes bc it’s QJs and we have solid equity even against calling range most of the time. I’m fine with fold pre also or even flat which is an odd one from me. If we flat, we can play fit/fold pre- not ideal but I’m fine with it to lower variance a bit? I get worried jamming over a 12bb min open bc most hands they are min opening are “bet to induce hands”. Normally I would rather call a jam in spot like this bc they are prolly jamming their mid to lower pairs. Maybe even 99 or 10-10 is just open ripping.

As played- nothing wrong in my view if you lose to a nutty hand. Idk you have 15bb, gotta make something happen and can’t just sit around folding to a comically low stack. If you think villian can open/ fold on 12 which I assume a young aggro player will- I’m fine with the play. Even if villian has AJ/AK we have solid equity. I might just sigh flat though bc we only need to stack off on really good flops and just fold rest bc let’s be honest- a 12bb min open is going to be weight toward strong hands.

Shove range is going to be like 66+/ A10o+/ A5s+/ KJo+/ K9s+ This range is not ideal but just a guess on what I’m doing. Maybe tighten up some of the lower end due to fact it’s 12bb open. Think I would be happier if it was a button or CU open.

Without more reads, I would fold to a 2x from a 12x stack. May be too many big hands and not enough r/fs. If it were a big stack, the push would be generally good.

I think at 15bb eff this is a clear jam. Off 12bb, I tend to play more cautiously (probably to a fault). I just think they’re more likely to shove a bunch of middling hands rather than open, meaning I’m dominated by his calling range, and might not have enough FE to make up for it. I ended up shoving and lost to QQ. I actually misread his stack size (Thought he had more), or I probably would’ve folded.

Not answerable without more information. What are the other stacks? What does the pay table look like?

Kind of irrelevant IMO. Payouts are very flat. There are 1k ppl left. We have 1900 locked up. Next pay jump is in like 100-200 spots to 2k. The BB had 30bbs

I don't think this is close at all given player tendencies to be unbalanced.

A 12BB raising range should be pretty polar, either big pairs or raise/fold Ax / Kx type hands. That's what makes this tricky. You do block half of QQ/JJ, but that leaves all of AA/KK open (but also all Ax/Kx raise/folds).

I don't really love or hate any option. I think it's an easy shove against a more standard wider opening range, but the way this should be polarized would give me concerns about doing that. Folding is rarely too bad a move, although you do have a good hand. I guess I wouldn't even hate flatting and just going with it if you flop reasonable equity, although the problem there is if he is really polar you'll still be behind.

I don't think any particular play stands out and it might be up to your read and risk tolerance. If you feel this is too likely to be strong, then folding is fine. If you think he has a decent percentage of raise/folds, you can jam. If you think he might be raising strong unpaired hands like this that he would call a shove with but aren't made yet, you can call and get it in on the right flop.

It's a clear open jam, even from EP, but things get complicated once we are facing this super strong looking open. Everything you are flipping with would jam the 12 BB stack (especially from LJ) and you are beating only a few combos of hands (QTs, JTs, maybe J9s). You are getting crushed by way more combos.

QJs is my favorite hand and even I would approach this cautiously. If you haven't seen the BB 3 bet much, I would flat. Otherwise, I would fold.

On second thought, the BB also has to fear the strong looking open, so he probably won't squeeze a lot of the spots that he would earlier in the tournament. This pushes me more towards calling and potentially then we even price the BB in so we can play a multiway pot where QJs plays well.

Tricky to make good assumptions here because this is where the OpenNAI frequency really drop off precipitously and there's probably no good answer about who's still retaining a lot in their range. You could ask 10 different people and get 10 different equally justifiable answers.

IMO--

Do think you'll see substantial 9xs and 8xs here. IP probably supposed to snap it off with like any pair, A7s+, A9o+, suited bwy, KQo--and won't achieve that. Might be close but probably not quite.


Think the polarization of his range is obvious and not a particularly strong way to differentiate yourself unless you're connecting it with him having to snap it off with stuff most would fold. This means pounding him with ships.

QJs a clear ship for me.

Put a number on his assumed fold-to-3b frequency.

People find folds here quite often, probably 45% +/- 10% relative error.

They may not find the OpenNAI too often on average but when they do they have plenty of indefensible combos vs ships.

How about flatting? I think Call > Fold > Shove is best

Solver likes flatting here (ChipEV)

Something like all suited broadways, 22-QQ, AJo+, A9s+, A5s.

Playing call with KK+, some of the mid suited connectors, and like KQo, ATo, suited Ax