Quote:
Originally Posted by EggsMcBluffin
Assume he opens 77+, A9s+, AJo+, suited broadways, and traces of 55-66, A8s-, ATo, KQo, 9xs. Quite tight.
What do you reckon his unexploitable defense range is vs a 9bb squeeze? How do you think that compares to reality? What would you do to exploit him if you assume he deviates?
Let's be clear, I'm at 38BB, not 50BB, which I think changes things pretty significantly. At 50BB I absolutely think we have room to 3-bet squeeze to something like 9-10BB, but at 38BB it's a lot more awkward.
But let's go through the exercise. I would expect that in theory, he shouldn't really have a calling range vs. a 9BB squeeze at all. I would think against a 9BB squeeze off 38BB effective the only responses are probably jam or fold, with maybe a small amount of clickbacks to 18BB mixed in. It's probably something like KK+, AKs and maybe slivers of AQ/AJ clicking back and JJ-QQ, AKo jamming. I wouldn't be surprised if there are no clickbacks at all. He's probably folding something like 70-75% of the time.
In practice, I think the deviation is going to be that our opponent calls too often, probably not finding the clickbacks and instead jamming a pretty linear range of JJ+ and AK and doing a lot of calling with stuff like good AQ, suited broadways and worse pairs.
The problem, of course, is that when we squeeze and the UTG player flats, we are going to get flatted by the LJ a fair amount of the time which is actually pretty bad for us, and may have enough strong hands that backraise on us and put us in a miserable spot.
Last edited by jpgiro; 04-07-2023 at 10:28 PM.