Blinds: 600/1200
Position: CO
Hand: TT
Stack: 44K

Just got to the table so the only player I had reads on was the SB, who I play with a fair amount and I consider to be an excellent player.

Pre-flop action:
UTG (60K, no reads but seems like typical MAG) raises to 3600
LJ (45K, Asian kid) calls
Hero flats
SB (100K, table chip leader, very good LAG) shoves for 60K
UTG and LJ fold
Hero ???

Three questions:

1. How do we feel about the flat?

2. If we 3-bet, do we have a non all-in sizing or are we primarily shoving?

3. Now that we've called and are facing a shove, is TT good enough to get it in?

1. Not a fan, your TT plays poorly multiway at this depth. You are barely getting the odds to set mine vs a 3x at 36 eff and it's going to get dicey even if you have an overpair. Shoving picks up 7.5bb when it gets through and you will get it in with fine equity when called. I guess flatting to set mine, or continue on very favourable boards, or stab when checked to occasionally, is going to be better than folding, especially if the first 2 players in are on the tighter side.

2. Shove for sure

3. Call imo, you can do some math and check your equity vs certain ranges and compare to the price being laid.

It's 56,000 in the middle (10,800 + 1200 + 44,000) and 40,400 to call. 40,400 into 96,400 gives an equity requirement of 41.9% to break even cEV. TT Vs 99+ KQs AQo+ AJs+ you have 45%. TT Vs 99+ AQ+ you have 43.3%. TT Vs TT+ AQ+ you have 39.3%. So the determining factor is whether SB will shove any smaller pairs. Perhaps they will 3b small with some of their AA and KK which will improve your equity against those ranges slightly. So it's gonna be close but I reckon call.

Opener should not be perceived to overfold vs the squeeze, or any 3betting for that matter

But once the squeeze gets through to you, SB having all AK alone (and I do think he pure ships AKo) along with the massive subsidy of 8.5bb makes TT a money printer in the vast majority of universes. Call.

There's so much more AK than QQ and JJ it's really tough to envision a universe where TT are not winning a lot of EV. He's owning himself pretty hard if he plays KK this way. And AQo, KQs at least can make their way into his squeezing range, too.

I'm going to talk about the flat first, before getting into calling off the squeeze.

The size of the UTG open from an unknown in an $1100 tournament is interesting in the sense that the "correct" raise size here is probably something like 2-2.5BB. So we have to ask what our opponent's strategy is - is this just their normal open size and they have a normal-ish opening range, do they have a tighter than normal opening range and maybe do some limping, or is it somewhere in between? The big thing we can surmise from a 3x open off 50BB is that they're probably not a super-studied GTO player, so assuming that they're opening a GTO range is probably incorrect.

The reason this is important is that the tighter the opening range, the less inclined we're going to be to want to pile in money with TT in a squeeze spot. It's not really just about what the opener is doing here, it's the fact that there's still a player in the lojack that can absolutely have strong hands (in theory they should have stuff as strong as smatterings of AQ/AK/JJ here), plus there's still multiple players behind us.

My thought in game was that I don't really have a good handle on what type of opponent the UTG player was and I could just be betting into a range that absolutely smashes me, and by flatting TT I leave myself options to get away if the action goes crazy behind me. If a player yet to act squeezes and the UTG player goes with it, I can actually fold TT pretty comfortably.

However, the big issue is that the open and call makes this spot play different. With a 3x open I don't have much ability to 3-bet small, and the spot becomes more like a 25-30BB spot where our squeeze sizing is primarily all-in. So the question is whether TT is good enough to just shove in, say, a 25-30BB spot, and it probably is.

So if I had to do it over again, I'd probably just jam. The profitability of the shove is really about getting a lot of folds from hands with equity, and unless the UTG player has a really narrow opening range we're going to get enough folds to make the jam easily profitable.

Is UTG in this spot true UTG at an 8-9 handed table?

If so, TT are pretty much vaporized when he finds that call against the 50bb ship. His calling range might be as tight as QQ+, AK and the more JJ he has, the worse TT are doing.

I wouldn't have ships here. UTG 3x'ers do not overfold. It's not the same as this spot: https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/2...-fold-1820806/

Assume he opens 77+, A9s+, AJo+, suited broadways, and traces of 55-66, A8s-, ATo, KQo, 9xs. Quite tight.

What do you reckon his unexploitable defense range is vs a 9bb squeeze? How do you think that compares to reality? What would you do to exploit him if you assume he deviates?

Its quite different from this spot too

https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/2...-pair-1820644/

Let's be clear, I'm at 38BB, not 50BB, which I think changes things pretty significantly. At 50BB I absolutely think we have room to 3-bet squeeze to something like 9-10BB, but at 38BB it's a lot more awkward.

But let's go through the exercise. I would expect that in theory, he shouldn't really have a calling range vs. a 9BB squeeze at all. I would think against a 9BB squeeze off 38BB effective the only responses are probably jam or fold, with maybe a small amount of clickbacks to 18BB mixed in. It's probably something like KK+, AKs and maybe slivers of AQ/AJ clicking back and JJ-QQ, AKo jamming. I wouldn't be surprised if there are no clickbacks at all. He's probably folding something like 70-75% of the time.

In practice, I think the deviation is going to be that our opponent calls too often, probably not finding the clickbacks and instead jamming a pretty linear range of JJ+ and AK and doing a lot of calling with stuff like good AQ, suited broadways and worse pairs.

The problem, of course, is that when we squeeze and the UTG player flats, we are going to get flatted by the LJ a fair amount of the time which is actually pretty bad for us, and may have enough strong hands that backraise on us and put us in a miserable spot.

Hmm I’m fine with the flat as a lower variance play but it does open up to a nice squeeze from the button/ blinds. I think I like 3! Here with intention to fold to a 4! Bc we are crushed by a 4!. I say 3! To 11k or even less if you want to exploit and think villians will fold to say 2.5-2.9x ish which I think is possible if first raiser is ever light.

This spot- if I’m 3 betting as a squeeze kinda here/ I have to think the ep player can do it light aka they are middle aged to younger and are correctly opening (think they are open A2-A5s from ep, and maybe some worse hands like KJo.

I think it’s an easy fold as played bc you run against what AQ+ 99+ maybe? Hard to range bb per se but it seems like a lot of pairs better than your hand and some flips. Idk I think jamming 36bb here is kinda bad bc you are only called by better pairs and AK/ maybe AQ. I like 3 betting more as a semi squeeze and folding to a 4! Bc the 4! Is never light. I think 10-10 is wayyy too good to flat here kinda. The LJ is going to be a bad hand that can’t call a high % of the time and you only have to worry about the first raiser having a real hand + someone luckily picking up a hand from btn or blinds.

Maybe jam is ok here bc we put in what 1/4th our stack with a 3!. Idk in live game folks play so straight up- I like giving ourselves an out if they do 4!. I like 3! Also bc we pick up an easy 8.5bb when first raiser is on lighter part of their range- if LJ calls and we see flop heads up- we have an easy cbet on a lot of board textures to take it down without running all 5. If you did 3! Here and we get 4! From blind- seems like an easy fold bc at best we flip against AK. Btw this spot looks like a super juicy squeeze for the person that ripped pre here. Sure folks don’t squeeze enough in the live game normally so we fold but still.

Range of jam is hard to say but I would guess 99+ with AQ/AK/and maybe KQs. I almost wanna say I would discount AA/KK bc shoving those hands here seems like a punt of ev by a player in that spot. Like AA/ KK would love to 3! Fairly large and play a super simple low spr pot postflop.

oops, thought you also had 50 bigs lol

You're still in shitty shape when a squeeze ship gets called--he probably should not call wider than TT+, AK, maybe even JJ+ AK

QQ and AK looks like a better squeeze all-in range in theory but there's still some EV, albeit probably only a small amount, to be had with an exploit of basically no ships and instead capitalizing on underfolding by using 8bb sizing more than we otherwise would

mixing flats an 3bs to 8bb looks like a viable exploit for TT, on the basis of what you described: UTG will underfold and LJ will too, and taking it to the streets in that spot works

there's still a lot of strategic complexity with an SPR of 1.5ish

and no matter what you do I don't think it's ever an unjustifiable move to stack off against squeezes or 4bets; the pot is too big

TT is mostly a 3b preflop in that spot. And when he SB shoves versus you flat, TT is a theory call after everyone else folds.

If you 3b and UTG shoves on you TT is a fold. You can 3b fold with these stacks. You are putting artificial limits on your hand that are not true in theory.

But the rest of your explanation is disconnected from your previous statements. You said you assumed that UTG villain may not be GTO, but then you assume a perfect GTO response to your 3bet. If you assume his range is off when opens, you have to follow that same logic after you 3bet. If he is not studied as you said, he will have calls where he shouldn't have calls.

maybe is he's opening closer to the average BTN-3 open range but from true UTG, no they're definitely not; on the contrary they're a pure flat unless you're exploiting as described

if we make it 8bb and utg 4b ships it we have 32bb to call to win 52bb

UTG would need a lot of JJ and AA to make TT ever a fold; the inclusion of AK, and the disproportionate prior likelihood of AK (16 combos vs 6 each for the pairs) drives the result

UTG didn't shove. SB shoved. It's a theory call.

If we instead 3b to 8 and UTG shoves, TT is a fold.

not if UTG ships KK, QQ and all AK

add in AA and JJ then sure, fold

This is the UTG shove range in GTO:



If they call AA and JJ instead of shoving those then this does get to call. I mean even in the solution against that range calling is slightly positive EV with 0.01. But my point was not commenting on when this is or isn't a call, but just that we can 3bet to 8 and still fold. It was given in previous answers that this is not a real option due to stacks, but in reality that was not true.

The problem with using the GTO Wizard sims in this case is rhat:

1. This isn’t a cEV spot, it’s a tournament spot with 50% of the field remaining which does change reactions significantly. I was looking at the MTT ICM sims more than the cEV ones.

2. Thr GTO Wizard sims assume normal 2x-ish sizing. When have a bet to 3x and cold call off of 38bb effective, our reaction has to change significantly. It can’t be the same as facing a min raise and a flat. The size of the pot is already bigger.

Ultimately, the reason why 3-bet to something like 8-9bb seems particularly dicey in this spot is not necessarily that we can’t react correctly against a shove. It’s that in a midwestern $1k MSPT, my expectation is that the UTG is going to react primarily by calling when they should almost never have calls considering ICM. And once they call, the HJ calls a ton and we’re now left in a bloated multi-way pot.

Now in practice, we should be able to navigate that pretty well being in position, but it’s way more challenging and when I can shove and get UTG to fold 75% of the time or more that might be a better result than being in a 3-way pot a pretty good chunk of the time?

Now if we go bigger, like 11BB, then we’re probably putting ourselves in a spot where we get a more polar reaction from the UTG player. But we are also now in a weird spot where TT is in a close call off spot given we’d be calling 27 to win a pot that’s gonna be 81.5. We would have to feel pretty comfortable that their range is something other than JJ+, AK to want to call off.

I get that in theory this is a viable 3-bet non all-in spot, but in this configuration I’m not convinced that we get the desired result. Which is why in game I leaned hard toward flat, and if we think that’s bad that’s fine, but I’m not sure jam is appreciably worse than 3-bet small.

All of this being said, I do appreciate the insights and the feedback! Great conversation.

Btw do folks here think jamming 36bb would be too much here? I would say yes bc we are only called by hands we flip with- maybe AQs AKo and AKs and better pairs. Also think we can maybe get a call by 99 or 88 from original opener if they get sticky and want to see a flop thinking we could have AK or AQ?

I do understand how 3betting a 3x open puts a large % of our stack in but think it’s better bc we can find a nice exploit fold against a 4! To original opener or when someone behind wakes up and rips.

I did not know to look it at ICM. It was never mentioned in the original post.

As for the adjusting for the large raise, we can shave off the bottom.

At 50% TT can mix call or 3b. Fold to the shove.

1: I prefer the flat to 3-bet. Against an unknown UTG open raising is difficult. Especially because the opening raise is 3 bb's. It is very likely a JJ/QQ/AK type hand (leaning more towards JJ). It is possible we could get JJ to fold to a shove but not a sure thing given we have only 37 blinds.

2: If we 3-bet it would have to be a jam. Normal 3-bet here would be 14k because of the caller (which would be well over 33% effective stack). 3-betting to 8k is begging for calls which is awful for TT against at least 2 players.

3: Our biggest problem this hand is that we just got to the table. SB on the other hand knows what UTG is up to. Because UTG folded to the shove it seems like SB may have known that UTG was wide. I also think that SB has hands like AK/AQs/JJ/QQ here. But SB can also be shoving with 77-99 if it knows that UTG is very wide. Given that SB is a very good player, SB would be assuming that the callers would be folding to the shove once UTG folds. I would be more inclined to call the shove with 25 to 30 bb's than the 34 we have left. But I think it is close because I don't think SB would be doing this with AA and probably not KK as well.