PokerStars - $10+$1|25/50 NL - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

SB: 3,220 (VPIP: 13.33, PFR: 14.29, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 15)
Hero (BB): 2,836
UTG: 2,880 (VPIP: 60.00, PFR: 40.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 5)
UTG+1: 5,272 (VPIP: 18.92, PFR: 12.12, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 38)
MP: 3,060 (VPIP: 16.67, PFR: 16.67, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 7)
MP+1: 3,091 (VPIP: 9.09, PFR: 4.55, 3Bet Preflop: 7.69, Hands: 22)
MP+2: 5,297 (VPIP: 22.67, PFR: 17.33, 3Bet Preflop: 14.29, Hands: 76)
CO: 1,456 (VPIP: 28.57, PFR: 19.05, 3Bet Preflop: 22.22, Hands: 22)
BTN: 4,244 (VPIP: 12.31, PFR: 7.81, 3Bet Preflop: 3.33, Hands: 65)

SB posts SB 25, Hero posts BB 50

Pre Flop: (pot: 75) Hero has A J

fold, fold, fold, fold, MP+2 raises to 100, fold, BTN calls 100, SB calls 75, Hero raises to 550, fold, fold, SB calls 450

Flop: (1,300, 2 players) J 8 A
SB checks, Hero bets 800, SB calls 800

Turn: (2,900, 2 players) Q
SB checks, Hero

so I squeezed here against these guys as their fold to 3 bet was high and had been playing fairly passive.

flop is obviously great but the turn made alot of draws complete.
if i bet and get raised should i be folding here? or getting it in?

So given he didn't fold to your 3-bet despite having a high fold to 3-bet, what range do you put him on before the flop? And how does his range change when he calls flop?

What draws are there in that range that complete on the turn? Do you really think he is still around with KT? Did he call a 60% pot bet with a gutshot? What heart draws could he have completed? Would he have stuck around pre with T9?

88 and JJ are in his PFR range, so he's probably not slow-playing trips.

I think you have at most 8 combos to worry about: KT, T9, and 6 AQ combos. But some of those may have already folded. He probably has as many AK combos, and may have one or two AT or Ax. If he did make 2 pair with AQ, or the flush but not the S-F, you have a redraw to the nut flush. So you are slightly ahead of his range.

Given you've only got 1536 left and the pot is 2900, you are choosing between a shove now, getting it in on the river, or trying for a cheap showdown. With only a slight edge, ICM and being WA/WB might argue for checking back now and, if possible, on the river too. If you check now and he leads river, he needs to have a large % of bluffs in his range for it to be right to call. IF River is a , GII.

you have only half a PSB left. Even if you are behind now you have any heart, A or J which you can hit to give you the best hand the majority of the time, and gives you roughly 22.5% equity (very close to what you pay when you gii) against a range of something like T9s,KhTh,Kh9h,Th7h,9h7h (at a guess).

I'm sure a good chunk of, if not most of, the time you are ahead here so I think this should be a Gii on this turn.

Shoving is good if we can peg his range to exactly AT/A8. All the rest of it improved ott so I would check and hope to improve river or that villain checks to us on bricks where it should be safe to value shove vs randoms.

+100.

But if he can only have a few combos of flush, whats the point of shoving to make ALL the worse hands to fold?

Wouldnt it be better to raise/call the shove?

This !

By shoving we are turning our hand into a bluff in that he's folding worse and calling better. The question is what's he betting for value that we beat when he stabs otr ? Would he bluff and if so with what ? Also our hand looks like a weak ace or some horse **** pp Otr after checking back. If he stabs Otr that would be the Real conundrum.