Winning Poker Network (Yatahay) - 150/300 NL - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

MP+2: 11,068 (VPIP: 23.81, PFR: 20.00, 3Bet Preflop: 25.00, Hands: 21)
CO: 6,570 (VPIP: 19.05, PFR: 15.79, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 21)
BTN: 9,767 (VPIP: 14.29, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 7)
SB: 9,744 (VPIP: 5.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 21)
BB: 3,960 (VPIP: 25.64, PFR: 7.69, 3Bet Preflop: 7.14, Hands: 39)
UTG: 21,357 (VPIP: 11.11, PFR: 11.11, 3Bet Preflop: 33.33, Hands: 9)
UTG+1: 32,303 (VPIP: 25.00, PFR: 15.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 21)
MP: 5,448 (VPIP: 14.29, PFR: 16.67, 3Bet Preflop: 10.00, Hands: 21)
Hero (MP+1): 15,366

9 players post ante of 30, SB posts SB 150, BB posts BB 300

Pre Flop: (pot: 720) Hero has A Q

fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 600, MP+2 calls 600, fold, BTN calls 600, SB calls 450, BB calls 300

Flop: (3,270, 5 players) 9 9 Q
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets 1,420, MP+2 calls 1,420, fold, fold, fold

Turn: (6,110, 2 players) 3
Hero checks, MP+2 bets 2,400, Hero calls 2,400

River: (10,910, 2 players) 7
Hero checks, MP+2 bets 6,618 and is all-in, Hero?

This is just always a 9 right? I have a club and a diamond which sucks.

I think vilain doesnt have many 9's here. When you c/c turn you give him room to bomb this river. I would Call river, as played. What u think?


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There are definitely some % of bluffs here - I think not enough without a read - even given the pot odds. Your hand is pretty face up and i don't think many of the population jam their missed draws against an obvious top pair/overpair hand

Since it went multiway pre and villain flatted flop with 3 players behind this just really looks like a 9 and rarely a missed draw - probably not enough to make this a call.

Thanks for the input guys. I ended up folding because I thought his range was pretty 9 heavy. Afterwards I was thinking if I'd fold AA or KK in this spot, which is why I posted. AQ is the same hand as AA or KK in this spot, so it should be an easy fold.

I don't entirely agree. V could've flatted AA/KK pre so it's not the same as AQ here.

1900-2100 flop. Check turn.
As played turn is fine. River close either way.

Remember this is an MP+2 flat of an MP+1 raise, so we should be discounting a lot of marginal hands here. Do we think our opponents are going to be flatting with a lot of 9x offsuit stuff here other than maybe A9? I don't think so. Our opponent's range is primarily going to be pocket pairs, Ax suited hands, some good suited broadways, suited connectors and some two-gaps, and maybe some strong offsuit broadway hands.

Flop is fine. I don't think the bet size makes that much difference here, but we want to size the turn correctly if we bet there. V is probably calling flop with all draws, pairs or better, plus maybe some gutshots like KJ/KT.

Turn check-call is fine. Opponent will be checking their top pairs here almost every time so their betting range is almost 50/50 between draws and made hands.

Since the river is a blank our opponent's range is almost now entirely split between busted draws with no made hand (52%) and made hands that beat us (43%), with some weak pairs in there that might check. Our hand is basically a bluffcatcher at this point and it really depends on how often we think our opponent bluffs here. If we think our opponent bluffs 40% of the time then we can call so this really is a villain-dependent spot. My general default here would be to fold, especially at lower stakes tournaments where many players do not bluff enough.