$109 Progressive Knockout

12k entries

Remaining players: 250 (current payout ~$300)

My position: around 100th place

Bounty on my head: $320


All I knew was villain was an online MTT reg and opened 1 hand from 7.


What do you think of the river play?
My thinking was he would continue barrelling the river with a big part of his bluffs + 33 and 77 (possibly Q7) which were the only value hands I put him on. But maybe I'm too optimistic.
Thanks for any comments. Cheers.


PokerStars - 15000/30000 Ante 3750 NL (8 max) - Holdem - 8 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

CO: 28.21 BB
BTN: 19.89 BB
SB: 15.85 BB
BB: 47.14 BB
UTG: 11.56 BB
UTG+1: 34.05 BB
MP: 31.06 BB
Hero (MP+1): 40.41 BB

8 players post ante of 0.13 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.5 BB) Hero has A Q

fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 2.1 BB, fold, fold, fold, BB calls 1.1 BB

Flop: (5.7 BB, 2 players) Q 7 3
BB checks, Hero bets 1.99 BB, BB raises to 6.3 BB, Hero calls 4.3 BB

Turn: (18.3 BB, 2 players) 8
BB bets 9.15 BB, Hero calls 9.15 BB

River: (36.6 BB, 2 players) J
BB bets 29.47 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 22.74 BB and is all-in

This is how I get knocked out of tournaments or at least lose a lot of chips.

There are no semi-bluffs on this flop. 65/64/54 wouldn't be semi-bluffing with no overcards and no pairs yet.

The hands that would do this are Q7s/Q3s/73s/77/33. Or at least these are the hands I would do this with.

I probably fold on the turn because we didn't improve and the sizing indicates it will be all in on the river. If KQ/QJ/QT was doing this they probably go about it by checking the turn or making a smallish blocking bet.

Turn is close, but I think you still need to call there. River though looks like a fold. Not enough bluffs here, and he's not going to be value betting worse w/ his tournament on the line.

That's just not true. A gutshot is a fine bluff candidate here. You're saying villain has no bluffs, and that's just not going to be true of a good player. I'm not at home so I can't run the spot, but I'm confident there are going to be bluffs with hands like gutshots and double backdoors, especially if they block some of your Qx combos.

If you're folding TPTK this readily and assuming villain never has bluffs here, and never bluff yourself if you're in villain's shoes, you're going to be very exploitable.

In a PKO I think villain is more incentivized to get stacks in with that kind of hand and hope you call with worse. But I think the top pairs with potential kicker problems don't check-raise that often.

Villain's tournament is not on the line. OP's is. And it's a PKO; he can win three buyins if he gets hero to call off with worse.

OP,

Flop and turn are fine. River is a very tough spot. If villain is good and balanced you gotta call some percentage of the time. Of course, it's the exact line villain would take with a strong flopped hand, which sucks, but that's why tough players are tough.

The only bluff that got there is T9s and that seems like a low frequency candidate compared to actual gutshots or three-in-a-row backdoor straights. A good villain who bluffs with backdoor hearts on the flop is probably going to follow through like this. Plus there's a slim chance he could be overplaying KQ to try to win the bounty.

Against a maniac I always call; against a straightforward player I always fold.

I ran the spot in Octopi, and here's BB's range after the c-bet. The yellow is a check-raise of 30% pot; the orange is a check-raise of 50% pot.



So there should be a solid range of bluffs in here.

(BTW, the solver recommends 3-betting the flop with AQo and 75/25 split 3-bet/call AQ of spades-- specifically, the combo with no flush draw. Clubs and hearts do some 3-betting but mostly call. And AQs not of hearts jams the turn.)

Much appreciated, kind sirs.


Nath, may I ask how does one decide what action to take when there's a split for a specific hand between different actions?

For example the T8s, says 30% -> fold, 30% -> call, 10% -> raise smaller, 30% -> raise bigger.

I just cannot understand how's the knowledge applied when playing the actual hand.

The splits are usually somewhat dependent on suits but even there the actions are split. Looking into more detail:



T8 of spades always folds because it has no backdoor flush draw. The other combos are a mix of calling and raising, with clubs raising slightly more than the two other combos (I presume because it has the backdoor straight flush draw).

Here is a thing that is often lost or forgotten during the endless discussion about ranges that has been generated by the advent of GTO strategies in poker:

When it gets to the end and it is time to show the cards you no longer have ranges. You have Poker Hands.

Now I am going to give you some old-school poker knowledge. I know that is deeply discouraged and frowned upon in this forum but here it is nonetheless:

A single unsupported pair will win only 25% of the time in holdem, regardless if it is top pair, an overpair, whatever, and it does not matter if you have top kicker or not. In other words, a single unsupported pair (even top pair!) is not a very good hand on the river.

Anyway the way he played it he either has a set of 77's or 33's or he just really wants you to think he does so you will fold.

Since it is a PKO and he has you covered I would think that him wanting to stack you is much more likely than him wanting to check-raise bluff you off of a few chips on the flop and then turning it into a three street bluff. But you never know!!!

Tough spot on the river - I don't think I'm folding this one if the villain is a reg. There are some natural bluffs here (65s,46s) come to mind, we block his two pair combos and I don't think he calls with 73s. Even if he had a set I'm not sure if he'd x/r the flop here, yet if he had 65s he's way more inclined.

Statistics like that are mostly useless. Maybe a good starting point, but for an advanced poker player, that all means nothing.

How many players entered the pot? What are their ranges. How do their ranges interact with the board? What was the action?

I could go on, but you see the point.

In the actual hand, there is no flush possible, and only unlikely straights for either range. That has to skew your 25% to a much higher number.

Yes, by the rivrer, he either has a bluff, or a hand that can beat AQ. That tells us that our hand is a pure bluff catcher (If he can have KQ, this is just the easiest call). When he is polarized around our hand, our bluff catches should be close to zero ev. This is where you look at two factors: 1. Is Villain bluffing at approximately the right frequency. If he is under/over bluffing, we just respond by over folding to someone who doesn't have enough calls. If he is over bluffing, we call our bluff catchers. 2. If we don't know, we then look at blockers. Does AQ block more value, or bluffs? Our QS blocks 2 combos of 2P. Our AS doesn't block any natural bluffs, like a random A5s with double back doors. That makes this a 'good' bluff catcher, if we are just looking at point 2.

In real life, point one is 95% of the game. Only against a good, balanced player would we need to get to point 2.

I agree this flop is likely under bluffed, but then again, there isn't a ton of value that wants to check raise flop.

One last point; a PKO incentivizes us to call here; if we fold, we will have a medium stack and will be ineligible for several players bounties. If we call and win, we will be table chip leader (and probably a top 3% stack in the tournament) and thus able to win bounties from virtually anybody.

LOLOLOLOL discussion of anything but ranges will not be tolerated on this forum! Don't worry, I know that further infractions will be punished.

I said it was old school poker knowledge and obviously such wisdom has far less value today than it did back in the day, when people knew that a flush beat a straight but never gave much thought as to why.

Nonetheless my point is valid. Of course You need to understand ranges and how they work. But what gets lost in that shuffle is the need to retain a situational awareness. Where do you stand in the tournament. Which Villains do you want to mix it up with, and who do you want to avoid. Why does this Villain in particular want to play a big pot with you.

These things still matter. OP has allowed himself to be painted into a corner. He started the hand with a useful stack of over 40 bb's but now half his chips are in the pot and he is faced with a demand for most of the rest while holding nothing more than a bluff catcher, in a situation where (in my opinion) the Villain's range is going to be heavily skewed towards winners and away from bluffs. This is not a winning tournament strategy.

Stack Preservation is a thing. Ideas like that get short shift around here these days but if you want to succeed at tournaments one of the most important skills you can develop is knowing when to cut your losses. For me that moment in this hand was on the turn. OP faded the check-raise and did not improve. Villain bet half the pot. What a perfect time to take the L and move on.

Why did you come into this thread immediately defensive and purposely hostile like this?

For all your "I'm old school and you young whippersnappers" (I've been playing seriously for 20 years, for the record) your ultimate point about the hand comes down to "You have a bluff catcher." Which nobody is disagreeing with. The question is whether villain has enough bluffs, or makes value shoves with worse, to make this a call. If you think he doesn't, why not just say that without all the puffery?

Defensive yes; hostile no.

Defensive yes, because any time I make a post which says "stop thinking about ranges for a minute and think about this instead" I get flamed. Hostile, no, because it is just a discussion forum about a game. You could care enough to be hostile?

Just for the record, my point was not "You have a bluff catcher" My point was "You have put yourself in a position where half your chips are in the pot and you are faced with a bet for most of the rest and oh by the way your hand is weak. How did you end up in that bad spot? How can you avoid it in the future?"

But again, that thought strays away from the discussion of ranges, and so I guess it doesn't apply here?

You can avoid it by either not playing poker, or only bet when you have the absolute nuts, check otherwise. You haven't made any valid posts in this thread - 3for3poker summarized it best.

So what you are saying is that:

"When it gets to the end and it is time to show the cards you no longer have ranges. You have Poker Hands." is not a valid point in tournament poker.

"a single unsupported pair (even top pair!) is not a very good hand on the river." is not a valid point in tournament poker.

"But what gets lost in that shuffle is the need to retain a situational awareness. Where do you stand in the tournament. Which Villains do you want to mix it up with, and who do you want to avoid. Why does this Villain in particular want to play a big pot with you." these are not valid points worthy of consideration in tournament poker.

"You have put yourself in a position where half your chips are in the pot and you are faced with a bet for most of the rest and oh by the way your hand is weak. How did you end up in that bad spot? How can you avoid it in the future?" these are not valid points to consider when discussing tournament poker.

" Stack Preservation is a thing (...) if you want to succeed at tournaments one of the most important skills you can develop is knowing when to cut your losses." this is not a valid point if we are discussing tournament poker.

I have to think that it is pretty funny that no less than three posters have reacted so negatively to me having the gall to actually divert from the strict demands that we discuss ranges only.

3for3 did put it best, in the first 2 lines of his response: "what you are posting is useless. Ranges! Ranges!"

I'm sorry I had to revisit this but I must say that I am VERY convinced that there are many other ways to avoid getting a 40bb stack all-in with a TP/TK bluff catcher, and that the ways you listed are not the only options. I refuse to believe that giving up poker or playing the nuts and folding everything else are the only ways to avoid getting felted in this situation. If I worked at it I could probably even come up with some ways to avoid this pitfall that are strictly range-based.

"whippersnappers", I did not know this word

That's the whole reason why this topic exists.

Avoiding to get stacked is not really a strategic goal. The best player in the world gets stacked sometimes, otherwise he gets run over.

$109 MTT far above my level, I was just wondering if BB is supposed to go all-in with KQ on the river?

You're still doing it.

What people are reacting negatively to is the fact that you came in with purposely hostile language about how "I know discussing anything but ranges is forbidden" and then have been defaulting to saying that in response to every post responding to you since, refusing to actually engage with anything anyone said so you can repeat your talking points about how you're persecuted for not talking about ranges.

You are not posting like you want to discuss this hand; you are posting like you wanted to pick a fight over how the kids with their computers don't have the OLD SCHOOL KNOWLEDGE and EXPERIENCE you do.

Do you want a response to your actual points? Here you go.

It's a fundamentally meaningless statement unless you're so good at putting opponents on specific hands that you can do so every time you're faced with a river decision. In that case, you would be the best player who ever lived.

Correct. It is so broad a point as to be essentially useless. AK on an AT853 board with half pot behind in our stack might as well be the nuts. 82 on an 87653 board with 5 times the pot behind might not even be worth a single bet. What is and is not a good hand is relative.

What do they have to do with this hand? We got the information about the tournament status and the villain in the OP. That's the extent of knowledge we have. How does this statement help us analyze the hand? It's just a platitude.

Again, not very useful in this particular hand, and you aren't offering any practical advice either. You don't get better by avoiding difficult decisions, and you don't win tournaments by playing your strong hands passively, by and large.

The only way to avoid this situation is to either fold the turn or check the flop, and I think those would both be bad decisions.

If we fold the best hand because of "stack preservation" then that's terrible. Again, not applicable to the hand, because we're trying to determine how often villain is bluffing, which is the key element of this decision.

What you are posting is useless because it is a broad series of platitudes with little to no practical application to the actual hand posted, along with some comments that indicate you were looking to pick a fight.

Your only practical answer was "he has a set of 7s or 3s or wants you to think he does." Yeah, we figured that out. Hence why the questions are "how often is he bluffing, and does he ever play KQ this fast?"

Everything else you posted has nothing to do with analyzing the hand posted and could be copied and pasted into any thread here without changes. The fact that you came in with hostility, preparing to pick a fight over any kind of modern analysis, makes me question whether you are posting to give advice and to discuss hands, or to start fights about how modern methods of study and play are inferior to yours.

Ok... well, his tournament is essentially on the line. Not sure of your point being so literal there.

So in summary your point is, Hero has a bluff catcher and he needs to decide if opponent is "essentially" risking his tournament w/ some combo of 65, or similar more than ~26% of the time.

I think everyone in here knows that. I'd fold considering it's PKO, and it's a so-so run out to bluff on.

Because in a PKO there's a significant difference between being covered and being the covering stack, even when stacks are close. The "essentially" is far more significant a gap in a PKO.

Ok so how would you play the hand? You claim everyone is playing this wrong so let's hear it.

Tough spot. We are pretty high in our range, but at the same time its unlikely, that KQ play like this for value, and there were no draws on the flop. So I would expect to see a lot of two pair or sets here, and for that reason I lean towards a river fold. The other streets are all pretty standard.