Hi all

I played in a $10 MTT on GG Poker over the weekend and there was a hand in which I wasn't sure I played correctly (I'm pretty sure I didn't).


Preflop there is 2.84 BB in the pot after blinds and antes.

Hero has around 85 BB

Hero UTG - Dealt pocket 10s, bet 3.5 BB (My usual open bet is 2.5 BB, but I varied it up here because I didn't want too many callers).
UTG+1 - Calls
Folds around to BB, who calls too.

Flop: J 9 k
Pot: 11.84 BB

BB: Check
Hero UTG: Bet 5.92 BB (I wasn't sure where I was after that flop, and figured I'd push out a bet to see where I was at).
UTG+1: Fold
BB: Calls

Turn: 10
Pot: 23.68 BB

BB: Checks
Hero UTG: Bet 17BB (I've hit trips now and considering the check, I think BB is on a draw and I don't want him to hit it)
BB: Calls

River: 6

BB: Bet 24.78 BB

At this point I'm fairly certain that the BB has a Q (probably AQ considering the pre-flop call) and has hit the straight on the turn when I hit the trips. If I call and lose, I'll have 35 BB remaining. I ended up calling, even though I was fairly convinced that they had AQ and I should fold. BB shows AQ and takes down the pot.

I know that the call was bad, not even sure why I called, it was just so hard to lay it down. I'm concerned about my play on the other streets however. Was the bet on the flop too low, should I have bet more? How should I have evaluated the BB hands considering the check on the flop and turn? How much, if even at all, should I have bet on the turn?

Thanks for the help.

Your preflop bet sizing should generally be smaller-- usually 2-2.5x based on stack depths and position. 2.5x would be fine.

"Seeing where you're at" is a line of thinking that you need to retire, and think about the purpose of your bets. That doesn't mean you can't bet here; you have a gutshot to fall back on, and you can potentially prevent the pot from being taken away from you. But I don't think there's much reason to bet even as large as 50% here since you're not folding kings or jacks out (especially since they'll almost always have a gutshot, if not two pair) and you're not folding out nut flush draws or flush draws with other equity. (Speaking of, do you have the Tc? That's a factor into their ranges here.) If you bet 33% or even as little as 25% you're not likely to be ahead if called. With the two overcards, checking is fine as well.

I don't like betting large on the turn. You say you think BB is on a draw, but a lot of those draws include Qx, which now beats you. And you're also not considering his full range of hands, instead focusing on part of it. A bet this large may fold out two pair, which is the kind of hand you want to get value from. If you're going to bet, 1/3 pot will accomplish your goals while still keeping in hands you beat. Betting 3/4 pot is basically asking to only get called by hands that beat you. When you try to get a specific result from a specific set of hands in a player's range, you can set yourself up for bad outcomes against the rest of the range.

River you seem to know what happened. You're still getting good pot odds though even at that size, but it's a large bet and at these stakes unlikely to be something you beat, unless the missed flush draw just leads as a bluff. But you really overinflated this pot and put yourself in a difficult situation. Exercising more pot control and thinking about what you want to accomplish with your bets, as well as thinking about your opponent's entire range of hands rather than a specific part of it, would have served you well here.

Thank you for your insight, really appreciated. I had 10 10. Regarding what you mentioned for the pre-flop bet size. My usual bet (almost regardless of hand) is 2.5BB, but on occasion I mix it up and do 2BB, or 3BB.

I used to play a bit about 10 years ago, most of my studying was with books from Dan Harrington and the like. The game has changed so much, and I need to think more about ranges now. What you said about over inflating the pot was is what I was thinking about and the reason I wanted to review the hand, because like you said, even though the call on the river wasn't the worst, it was a lot worse than it could have been.

Thanks again

Yeah, I went through the same thing. I largely stopped playing after Black Friday and only really started again in 2021, and even by then there had been so much advancement in the game-theory optimal understanding of the game, solver technology, understanding range construction, etc., that I had a lot to learn to modernize my game. But it's doable.

Harrington's concept of M was really one of the biggest insights into tournament play at the time. People usually talk in terms of big blind depth now, but adjusting your ranges and lines for your stack size, knowing when you should be making all-in moves, are still highly important to tournament success.