Villain was running 28/21 over about 115 hands. With ICM do we just not defend the A4o? Also is river just a fold as played? Any help is appreciated.

Reading this hand history hurt my feelings, this is a gross spot. The stacks mean it's hard for you to really get info postflop, and they played their hand decent, or odd. Once you defend and the Ace flops the chips are going in, especially since minraising can become the standard late in a tournament which means their whole range is in play. The reshove pre doesn't feel right, so you call to see if you flop well. You flopped well, and the rest is just oof. The river is a spot where if your time bank is 5 minutes, you can find a fold a good chunk of the time. I'd expect to get shown something stupid like Aces up or QT or a set of 8s or 9s a good chunk of the time here. The AT is weird and the line he took makes it really tough for you to do anything other than bust out in this spot.

Perhaps we can sigh fold the river a lot given that it’s basically the FT bubble of a 4.40 imo. A lot of his bluffs have showdown value here that I would expect a lot of ppl, especially near the FT, to check back on the river (e.g, T9s, Q9s, K9s). Can likely rule out any one pair hands with a jack. Does he take this line with pocket pairs that we beat (33-77)? Maybe, but he also checks the river a lot and even checks the turn a lot with those hands. It’s possible he has no air except KT and KQ, though that might be hasty. How many of K7-K2s does he have? Does he have Q7-Q5s?

We chop with the bottom of his value range (A3-A7) and lose to the rest. He has all of the sets and two pairs and QT. AK, AQ, and AT are possible but this feels like an uncommon line for those hands. I’m def sad for you though the whole way. It’s a gross spot, esp given the stack depth.

Preflop is fine but keep in mind hands like these have heavy RIO. You'll never be able to valuetown a worse Ace, so you're going to be calling down Axx boards behind/bluff catching. As played after he checks back the flop I would lead the turn - you should have the best hand a lot and him checking the turn with Jx really sucks. As played on the river I think this is a fold - I doubt he ever checks the flop and goes bet bet with bluffs, but he did take an odd line with AT.

Stacks on the other table matter for this decision, but it might just be a fold pre. Obviously seeing results makes that easier to say, but it's also illustrative as to why-- you're just always facing this problem when you do flop an ace. I'd consider jamming as an option if he was opening particularly wide, but with a covering stack on the button I don't expect him to be.

River might be a fold too since I'm not sure what natural bluffs he has here-- not many Tx hands that don't now have showdown value or beat you, just KT. Heart draw would be plausible except he didn't bet the flop. Considering how good the flop is for an opening range even under these conditions, and how much ICM pressure he can put on you, he should be betting 1/4 pot or so basically all the time, so not doing so might raise some alarms.

Oh my God, you're alive.

Hi nath

What Ax are we calling preflop? A9 and A8 seem alright here since we dominate at least a few combos of CO opening range.

I have been away from poker for years so my analysis could be off.

I virtually never see a bluff with this line on this board with these stacks.

But I also never expect to see an Ace take this line on this board, where there are some draws on the flop.

The thing is, the player is very active based on the preflop stats you showed, so I would expect pure bluff hands to stab at the flop.

It is possible that some draws could check back, realising that if they bet and you shove they won't have the odds to call off, but I think this is less likely.

The value hands you beat are also going to check behind on the river.

I think the call pre is perfectly fine and it is possible to just fold the hand on river, but it just goes to show that if your post-flop game is not disciplined then you can get into tricky spots playing out of position with weak hands, or with any hand really.

Zone Reads is technically still alive although I think there's been barely any new content in years. We have a Twitter account, too!

Anyway, yeah, without thinking too hard about it, that's probably right for offsuit aces-- you need some chance your kicker can play or flop a pair good enough to win. Any suited ace would also be fine, as long as you proceed cautiously with one pair.

In similar configurations, A4o always gets in with A3o mixing to fold. Splitting call, 3b non-ai and shove depending on exact stacks. An active villain in a 4.40 with a healthy stack might be prone to opening wider than eq so jamming might outperform the other options.

As played flop and turn are calls. River is a fold. In general, bluffcatching is worth zero. However, bluffcatching is worse in ICM contexts, when you factor risk premium. V would need to overbluff at a frequency greater than your risk premium to make hero calling profitable. That, or they would need to way overdo it with worse for value. Moreover, you have much better call downs: A8, A9, AT, T7hh.

I can't tell if I missed something the first time I read this or if the image changed somehow but why does it look like there are only two cards on the flop? I don't think that was the case before.

I see 3 cards on the flop, 2sAhJh (Firefox Android)

Yeah, now I do too. And I was pretty sure I did the first time I looked at the hand. I guess whatever browser I was using when I posted that was loading something incorrectly or making it look screwy.