Quote:
Originally Posted by Mlark
I don't play tournaments, but assuming this tournament is pretty crazy as you say the action has been, couldn't they just have a flush? The nut flush? Does not seem like a fold.
To me the real mistake here is not folding pre. UTG (!) raises, and MP makes a large 3bet, almost 4x, I think we can pretty comfortably release our hand here. We are probably fine if we never cold call a 3bet pre, especially if we suspect MP does not 3bet wide enough like most players. Even hands like AKo and JJ are probably going to be pretty close to indifferent between cold 4betting and folding. I think if you just cold 4 with QQ+, AKs, maybe AQs, and mix 4bet or fold with JJ/AKo and fold everything else you probably will do fine.
The problem with flatting anything preflop is that you cap your range. You are saying you have QQ, JJ, TT, AQs. And when you cold 4bet, people can very comfortably fold vs you knowing it's likely just KK+, because you are flatting everything else.
You will see a bunch of other players cold calling 3bets a ton with a hand like 77, but I wouldn't try to be like them. Study preflop charts like on GTO Wizard and you will be miles ahead of your competition.
Who cares about capping your range - we're set mining in a multi way pot so this will be played extremely straightforward. With that said I don't know at what stack depth this is a call vs fold - if we're 12% to flop a set the question is how much are we winning when we hit it. This is also a highly exploitable live event as seen by the 5 way action - using GTO Wizard to solve this spot isn't the way to go imo.