First day of Winter - ho ho nooo ... Not so cold out today, but there's still tons of snow everywhere, so that's always kind of blah ... guess it can only go up from here


Still trying to get to Silver Star, so will probably play some more today while the Calendar's got a zoom promo. Sometimes the tables tighten up around 9pm or 10pm, after the after-dinner crowd has filled their puzzle card, so will maybe have time to keep reading more stuff then?

Or ....may just take a rest on the couch, will see


Okay, going to play for a bit, then take a break for din

Learning Corner: Possible Warning Signs of a Rough Patch to Follow?


Have tried to pick stocks that will hopefully do okay for years. But guess since my investments will be in tax free accounts, selling will be an option as well (without having to worry about tax)?

Haven't found too many companies that grow exponentially year after year without things eventually cooling off for them - like Starbucks ... and possibly Apple? So was wondering ...


QUESTION: Are there sometimes maybe signs that a hot stock is starting to cool off a bit?


In the last thread, there were those 5 red flags that Sears was showing:

1. Decreasing share price
2. Decreasing (or negative) earnings
3. Increasing debt
4. Debt that's very large
5. Increasing interest from short-sellers

Maybe an early warning sign that a company may have hit a bumpy road is that a couple of those 5 things may still look fine, while a couple of them are starting to look not quite as solid?

Have taken a look at a couple of companies, but may need to look at several more to see what sorts of things may start to look different *before* the share prices might start taking a turn? As with poker, maybe things won't always be so clear?

So here's the first company ...



Example: Domino's (DPZ)

1. Share price - still increasing, not declining (declining would be bad)

2,3. Earnings still look fine, but Domino's debt level has increased (so the first is okay, but the second is not really great)

4. Apparently their debt level is starting to look a little on the high side too (not good)

5. Increased short-seller interest, decreased insider interest (not great)

This article was saying that the reason Domino's share price went down last year was because they missed earnings. And that the only reason their share price went back up is because they did an accounting trick of borrowing money to buy back shares:

Marketwatch: Why Domino’s Pizza stock may be poised for a fall (May 18, 2016)

In #2,3 it shows that they used the borrowed money to buy back shares - guess companies like to buy back shares because it decreases the number of shares on the market ... and that will increase the Earnings Per Share (EPS), when there's fewer shares? But guess stuff like increasing earnings, share buybacks, and paying out dividends are *supposed* be the result of a company that's prospering, not the result of a company that's borrowing money to get the numbers to look like that's the case?

This other article was also saying that strange accounting is oftentimes the first sign that a company might have started to stumble.

The Economic Times - 7 ways to figure out problems in a company's financial health

LESSON: So with Domino's here:

1. Doing a google search for why Domino's shares were struggling in 2015 led to that helpful article which explained the accounting trick.

2. And so it sounds like their increasing debt and higher debt levels may indeed be an early warning sign of a rockier road ahead?

The article was a report on somebody else's analysis - but the analyst thinks it's possible Domino's might actually *decrease* next year! So guess maybe it'll be interesting to watch and see what happens to DPZ next year as well?

omgosh, so beat My head wasn't feeling so great after trying to get closer to Silver Star today ... now my head feels like scrambled eggs, yikes ...

Night everybody

My packages have arrived from Amazon - that 2 day shipping is the nuts ... now have plenty of time to do some nice wrapping and make every package look special Will try to get some of that done tonight - and may post some more stuff later too, will see ...

Anybody recognize this?

It's that hand-crack flashlight/phone-charger/radio that was looking like the neatest invention ever a couple of months ago, after my power went out for a *whole 8 hours*, and my phone battery died too lol ...



Got a bunch of these to give out as stocking-stuffers ... and got one for me as well




Wrapping the other stuff next ...

Article Corner


Since there's several things besides the health of a company that can affect share price, have still been checking out realclearmarkets.com every day, and have started watching CNBC as well. Although there seems to be a lot of time fillers on that channel when there's not much going on?


Today they were reporting that Trump has announced that he might impose a 5% tariff on imports, and this is what happened to the share prices of some of the big-name stores:

Wal-Mart, Target, Macy's Drop Amid Tariff Talk

CNBC was saying Trump's tax cuts won't likely be enough to offset the tariff, so even ULTA dropped 2% today.

Not sure if may have to go back to the drawing board and consider different picks?

Almost turkey day!


Have posted this vid before in my old thread, but the awesome dance moves make it extra-festive, and hopefully worthy of a double post ...

Am no break until the New Year - wish poker was still playable, but oh well ... lots of other fun stuff to do over the holidays


Meeting up with a friend for coffee and a gift exchange this afternoon - hope everybody's having a nice day!

Happy Holidays!

Christmas Eve for us is usually a quiet day spent with the family watching holiday specials on tv, and prepping for the whirlwind of activity that's about to hit the next couple of days




All my aunts and uncles and cousins are coming over for dinner tomorrow - we feast, watch movies, and play board games ... still haven't watched that $5 movie from Walmart so that may be in play, will see lol ...

After helping my Mom out in the kitchen tonight, may check out the sales online - the stores only closed an hour or two ago, and it looks like Boxing Day's *already* getting started?




Hope everybody has a wonderful holidays!

We wound up watching Beauty and the Beast on tv - and then i wound up watching some of it again on the West Coast channel ... sooo good!

Anybody actually going to the mall tomorrow? Could swear some of the prices don't change much from what they were yesterday ... except maybe for holiday wrap. So may duck out to try and stock up for next year.

Also, my nephews arrive tomorrow!

We've saved some of the presents for opening until tomorrow - although there's never usually too much surprise about what we're getting because we all trade lists ... cat slippers, yes!

Night everybody

Turns out one of my nephews got sick overnight, so they won't be coming for another couple of days. So wound up going to the mall after all ... along with the rest of humanity ...

So hot in the mall!


Guess will have time to go back to looking at more stuff - will do that in a bit

Selling High


Guess if we're trying to buy low and sell high, then as soon as new shares have been bought, will maybe want to:

1. Try and keep track to make sure everything's going as hoped,
2. And keep on the lookout for signs that things might be starting to take a turn?

Not sure when will be the ideal time to sell after that - maybe before the share price starts to take a turn? Although maybe it won't be so clear when things might be about to take a turn, or if a company's possibly just hit a temporary bump in the road?



Analyst Recommendations


Guess any time there's uncertainty, opinions can very? On the one hand, there was that Domino's article recommending selling (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/why...all-2016-05-18) because:

1. their earnings were starting to fall short of analyst estimates
2. they started to borrow money to pump up estimates using accounting tricks

And there's more analyst stuff on this page on nasdaq.com, where analysts are also collectively predicting the price of Domino's stock might go down slightly next year ...

It's interesting to see the range of price estimates though - because it looks like someone still thinks they might do really well next year and that there's a chance DPZ could rise all the way up to $195? While someone else thinks it could go as low as $132?

Have been trying to read through annual reports, and look at financial reporting on my own to see if that might help - not so sure it helped as much as being able to see what the analysts were recommending though?


PLAN: It's nice to have Domino's as a test case - will be able to watch this stock and see how the analysts do in predicting how things might go for them in the coming year. Hopefully they're predictions will be fairly accurate, and then will be able to rely on analyst predictions in the future?

Considering One More Stock: Facebook (FB)


Hadn't spent too much time looking at Facebook because they haven't done super well this year - but just noticed that the analysts on nasdaq.com are expecting FB to go as high as $157 next year:

On the other hand, there was this article explaining why there was the big price drop in October, even before Trump got elected - which doesn't sounds as encouraging:


While another article says people may be overreacting and that now may be a good time to pick up shares that might be undervalued: http://fortune.com/2016/11/03/facebook-stock/


Wonder if those estimates are reliable - wouldn't that be something if their share price were to really rise that high? Will have to keep reading to see what other people see in Facebook's future?

Here's the Fortune article that was more positive about Facebook's drop in price in October - maybe more reliable because it relies on a group of analysts, and isn't just one person's opinion?

http://fortune.com/2016/11/03/facebook-stock/

Quote:

Why Facebook’s Stock Drop Makes It a Better Buy The social network may have forecast slowing revenue growth and higher investments next year, but it remains a strong long-term bet, according to an overwhelming majority of brokerages. By "slower" Facebook means less than the 56% growth the company managed in the third quarter. Analysts also noted that Facebook's comments on "ad load" and heavy investment in talent and data centers were not new and that there was nothing to suggest that the company's spectacular run was coming to an end. Ad loads are the number of ads that can be displayed to customers without alienating them. The issue is particularly important for Facebook since 90% of its users access the social network through mobile devices.

This person did a nice analysis of all the analysis

http://www.profitconfidential.com/st...plit-fb-stock/

Quote:

This Is What’s Causing One Analyst to Warn Against Facebook Stock Facebook Inc (NASDAQ:FB) and FB stock investors face what may be a crossroads, as some analysts remain bullish on the stock while one analyst predicts a fall by as much as 30%. FB stock has had a solid 2016, gaining 13% year-to-date. FB stock recently fell 5.5%, despite an excellent Q3 report, mainly due to the belief that ad sales, which were a large part of the of the 56% revenue growth over the same period last year, were going to slow in the next quarter. This came after Facebook CFO David Wehner said as much during a conference call, believing that Facebook has reached its ad limit per page, and will explore other avenues of revenue. Some analysts see this as the beginning of a steep drop for FB stock. [However], of 49 brokerages covering Facebook stock, 45 have given it a “buy” or higher rating. Several analysts have also noted that Facebook’s warning about slowing ad load revenue was nothing new, and that Wehner has pointed this out in previous quarterly reports. While there seems to be more analysts on the bullish side versus the bearish, at the same time, the risk of a 30% decline might be enough to keep some investors away.

There was also these quotes from an analyst on Reuters:

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-fa...-idUSKBN12Y1YW

Quote:

Drop in Facebook's stock makes for good time to connect: analysts Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster, who reiterated his "overweight" rating, said Facebook was making the right investments, "which should pay off in spades during 2018+." "There are several consumer and ad innovations that should keep advertiser demand high (for Facebook)," said Canaccord Genuity analyst Michael Graham. "We believe Facebook's operating momentum, high growth and reasonable valuation continue to suggest it should be a core tech holding."

The analysts sound pretty confident that Facebook should do just fine - will be so sad if it winds up really doing well next year, and miss out on the big gain Guess if it's solid, maybe it wouldn't hurt to wait a year for them to develop new revenue streams?

Still slightly tempted to buy a little bit of Facebook - will have to ponder the options in my jammies because it's time for bed

Night everybody

happy holidays, sam. i hope you're enjoying the time with your family...

Hey, viper!


Wasn't sure anybody was still reading - haven't been making as much progress as your Index Funds probably have But guess everybody has to start somewhere ...


Thanks so much for the well-wishes - hope you're having a very wonderful holidays as well!
Happy Holidays viper!! Cheers!!

Not sure it's the greatest day to go skating - guess we shall see

Hope everybody's having a nice day!

Since my nephews aren't arriving until tomorrow, actually had time to return one of their gifts and get a better one for cheaper




Which meant spending part of my day waiting in another line, zzz - guess it was also a chance to check out all the other gifts people were returning though ... looks like the chocolate fondue fountain, and the foot-tall talking stormtrooper weren't huge hits

There also seemed to be lots of couch potato type gifts - a mini-fridge, tv trays, a foot massager, a space heater ... guess everyone in Canada must do the same thing at night: sit around in our jammies and watch mediocre tv ...

Wonder what's on tonight lol

More Facebook (FB) Stuff


Looking at their share price gains, year by year, it looks like Facebook has been slowing down for a while?

Although, went to double-check the price to see if it was in line with earnings at gurufocus.com - and it seems to be showing that the share should be doing better than it is ... closer to the red dot?

So it looks like it's pretty underpriced like Google. Guess some of it might be the Trump anti-bubble that seemed to hit a lot of tech stocks after the election - and then maybe the rest is people worried about Facebook's growth slowing down in the future?

Although the analysts seem to think people are overreacting.


CONCLUSION: Maybe FB is a more risky stock - with the potential to grow more in the short-term next year, but also the potential to not grow as much as it *should*, due to the uncertainty of what lies ahead for them in the long-term future?

Can't wait to pick up some shares, and for those tax cuts to get passed by Congress - have tried to pick stocks that in the very least won't decline in price ... and will hopefully increase!

Hopefully the stock market does really well next year, and we all do well as well

Have still been checking Yahoo Finance for articles every day, but it seems like everything's been pretty quiet because of the holidays?

So couldn't come up with anything else to look at right now - guess will take a break from looking at stock stuff for the rest of the week and just enjoy my nephews' visit, and hopefully things'll start picking up again in the New Year?

Night everybody

NVDA

Hey SA!


Was looking at that a while ago - guess did they develop some sort of gaming computer that learns, or something like that? What a year they've had - wow! Looks like many of your picks have done super well

Mine not so much


Have seen the WYNN stock on several peoples' lists for 2017, and DB seems to be on fire - really hope lots of stocks do well in 2017 the way people are expecting ... maybe we can all retire by the end of next year


Cheers SA!

Portfolio Update


All the experts say it's futile to try and time the market, and that they never manage to buy at the absolute bottom and sell at the absolute top. So just went ahead and bought the stuff for next year today, in case things wind up going up in the new year, instead of down ...


Here are my final purchases! Decided to buy Amazon and ULTA because am hoping they will grow over the long-term. And am buying Google and Facebook because they seem (?) underpriced?

Can't remember why the Facebook wound up separate from the other three lol since it's all in tax free accounts - so can sell it in 6 months if it seems like things might be cooling off for them then?


It feels so helpful to have had the experience of doing something with money where there's rises and falls, and a short-term and long-term - so hopefully things won't feel too different from poker, and will be able to stay focused on potential earnings in the long-term and not the share price in the short-term, like the masters recommend?



Guess will keep reading Yahoo Finance stuff as well - so will see how things go

My nephews are watching football and eating egg muffin sandwiches - they're like little mini-me versions of my brother ... genetics are something They go home in an hour or two though, but it's been nice to see them


Anybody have any new resolutions for 2017 - this is about all that caught my eye for this year

Also, it'd be lovely if this turns out to be true

With poker winding down, hopefully 2017 will turn out to be a year of exploration and fresh discoveries, of lots of fun and exciting new interests and activities. GL to us all!