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12-04-2016 , 10:27 PM
Research Reports - Multi-sector Conglomerates

Read somewhere that these might be an alternative to an Index Fund, since they're a bunch of companies rolled into one? Maybe a lot more confusing to keep track of than say a pizza company?

3M has been outperforming the Dow

Last edited by TrustySam; 08-28-2017 at 07:11 PM.
12-04-2016 , 11:08 PM
Research Reports - Business Services

For some reason, Visa and MasterCard are in this section, while American Express was in the Finance section - but the majority of the companies in this section seem to mostly service businesses?

Waste Management was featured on an episode of Undercover Boss a couple of years ago - their graph looks really nice, although their net income seems to vary quite a bit from year to year? The research report says it's because there's big fluctuations in the price of recycled materials?

It was a lovely episode though - there's a summary of the episode in the first two minutes of the vid ...

Last edited by TrustySam; 08-28-2017 at 07:11 PM.
12-04-2016 , 11:38 PM
Research Reports - Industrial Products

Oh, it looks like Manufacturing is included in this section, along with containers and stuff? Nice to have the chance to see this whole list of companies, that have mostly never had the chance to hear about before ...

Last edited by TrustySam; 08-28-2017 at 07:11 PM.
12-04-2016 , 11:54 PM
Research Reports - Construction

More companies have never heard anything about - may have seen signs for some of the paint while at Home Depot getting my poinsettias? Kind of surprised this section's so small ...

Last edited by TrustySam; 08-28-2017 at 07:12 PM.
12-05-2016 , 12:34 AM
Research Reports - Basic Materials

Guess the gold stocks were the ones that were rising while most everything else was going the other way in 2008?

There's a 'GG' in the gold section - saw a 'CRAI' and an 'STT' before as well ... giggles ...

Last edited by TrustySam; 08-28-2017 at 07:12 PM.
12-05-2016 , 01:10 AM

Took some time off to play the $1 Cash Blizzard tourney from the December Calendar promo today, where they were giving away extra prizes in the first hour of play. Guess at first glance, it seemed like the chances of getting the $50 bonus were kind of slim - then took a closer look at the payouts, and it looks would have had to have made it all the way to 13/12,890 to win a similar amount with my poker skills ... talk about longshots lol ...

Anyways, still 5 more sectors to go, so will have to leave that for tomorrow ...

Night everybody

PS Oh, a Card Hunt!

Last edited by TrustySam; 08-28-2017 at 07:12 PM.
12-05-2016 , 09:23 PM

Had a bunch of silly stuff to post, but was going to try to keep the clutter to a minimum - so will try to be serious and stay focused ... for a change!

Will try to finish up posting the rest of the research reports - really happy to have them available with the click of a button

Last edited by TrustySam; 08-28-2017 at 07:12 PM.
12-05-2016 , 09:59 PM
Research Reports - Oils and Energy

It looks like this sector was doing quite well when oil and gas prices went through the roof during the Iraq War - guess the stocks for natural resource companies may tend to go up and down, as the prices for the natural resource rise and fall? If unrest breaks out again in the Middle East and oil prices start skyrocketing again, guess this might be an area to watch?

Warren Buffett likes oil and gas stocks - Chevron and Exxon are also part of the Dow, and have nice dividends too ...

Last edited by TrustySam; 08-28-2017 at 07:13 PM.
12-05-2016 , 11:21 PM
Research Reports - Auto, Tires and Trucks

Guess this section includes more established brands like GM (used to be part of the Dow), as well as new ones like Tesla?

Last edited by TrustySam; 08-28-2017 at 07:13 PM.
12-05-2016 , 11:42 PM
Research Reports - Transportation

This section includes planes, trains, and trucks - looks like none of these are part of the Dow either?

Last edited by TrustySam; 08-28-2017 at 07:13 PM.
12-06-2016 , 12:04 AM
Research Reports - Aerospace

Okay, last section - guess this is mostly US military/defense stuff? And some of them seem to be doing very well - the research reports were saying that Northrop Grumman has been developing drones, while Raytheon has been working on cyber security and surveillance equipment. The growth rates look pretty high, but the stuff sounds so sophisticated - still maybe better to just stick with pizza companies?

Big growth numbers in recent years for some of these companies

Last edited by TrustySam; 08-28-2017 at 07:13 PM.
12-06-2016 , 01:31 AM
Originally Posted by TrustySam Work Space for Learning How to Research Stocks
Haven't been able to find any learning materials on the internet that seem very helpful for learning how to research stocks - it reminded me a lot of how many of the articles on how to play poker were like that as well? Wound up reading, gosh ... maybe 20 poker books instead when trying to learn how to play poker - with maybe 2 of those being helpful? Wonder if maybe it'll sort of be the same with learning how to research stocks?
Originally Posted by TrustySam Work Space for Learning How to Research Stocks
It took so long to learn poker - was just wondering if maybe learning how to look at stocks will take just as long ... years?
Originally Posted by TrustySam Work Space for Learning How to Research Stocks

Wanted to post some reports first, so would have a variety of stuff to look at while trying to become more comfortable with all those new statistics from my book Stock Market Investing.

Guess with some of the data like the EPS looking so different for different companies, with some results like those for Disney and Amazon looking a bit more complicated than some others, hopefully it might help to keep practicing looking at different graphs, and reading more about each company?

So may post all the reports first, and then continue trying to learn more statistics? Oh boy, gl me

So to recap, the learning hasn't been going so hot so far!

First tried learning things for free off the internet - then decided to try ordering some books instead. And then at first the books seemed promising - but lately have been finding myself reading stuff and wondering, "well that was kind of interesting ... but is this *really* helping make things more clear??" And is it the books? Or is it me???

Guess was hoping that posting all these research reports would make it easier to pull up some real life examples to look at while trying out some of the tips in the books - and hopefully doing some practice exercises will make a difference? So guess that will be the plan tomorrow - to try reading the books, and look more closely at various research reports to try and learn with examples. And guess if that doesn't work out so hot either, will have to try out something else, so will see how things go

Night everybody
12-06-2016 , 04:27 PM
wug thoughts on DB?

Last edited by ScreaminAsian; 12-06-2016 at 04:34 PM.
12-06-2016 , 07:05 PM
Hey SA!

It's surely never a good sign, when Sam's first 'thoughts' when reading your question were ...

what's a wug ?

? What's DB

Guess the hope is that with more hard work, one of these days will hopefully be able to take a look at things and have a better idea of what might be in store for a company in the future? Looks like ... Deutche Bank (?) had an *amazing* day today?

Although it looks like last year, Deutche Bank lost money - so guess that's why the stock price must have gone down?

But the Zacks research reports says they've been revising their estimates for this year upwards? Although the report also says they've got an ongoing $14bil lawsuit with the DOJ ...

So, not sure SA Still reading my books to try and learn how to use all those statistics ... and that's not going so hot Hoping to make some progress tonight

Can't believe it's only 6pm? Goodness ...

Last edited by TrustySam; 08-28-2017 at 07:16 PM.
12-06-2016 , 07:27 PM
Oh ScreaminAsian, here's the Zack's report for the bank - not sure if have already posted it? But guess the 'library' of reports is so long, wasn't able to find it, if it's there?

Deutche Bank (DB)

12-06-2016 , 10:12 PM
"wug" means "what u got?"

i tried the search feature in this thread and it didn't seem like you had mentioned DB yet.

i think DB owns some trump debt. and he gets to appoint doj officials that will be in charge of prosecuting some fraud case against them or something i think. so potentially they could leverage this ongoing association with the potus for profit in the future
12-07-2016 , 01:42 AM
Hey that's great thinking SA, to use the search feature Will use that next time myself

Am disappointed to hear that my library is incomplete though, d'oh! Would be great if it's *mostly* complete, with just one or two things missing - but what are the chances have only missed one or two ... don't usually run that great Wonder how many more might have gotten missed and didn't wind up getting saved?

Hope any investments you make wind up doing better than mine Looks like my Visa's gone down, while the market has gone up. May *actually* be doing better with my poker this month, so ... yeah that's how bad things have gone so far with the Visa

Guess there was also a dividend today, so that's an extra $1.47 in the bank lol ... oh well, guess this was a purchase for the long-run, so will just have to wait and see how things go ...

Cheers ScreaminAsian

Last edited by TrustySam; 08-28-2017 at 07:16 PM.
12-07-2016 , 02:02 AM

Been busy reading and pondering the stuff in my books ... and nooo, that is not code for *slacking* or *napping*

Before discovering poker, used to read about two books a week - then after discovering poker, didn't read at all Guess might be a little rusty, so things may take some extra time ... but was reading some stuff that seems like it was helpful, so will keep at it

Also had a nice time enjoying some holiday tunes

Will continue tomorrow

Last edited by TrustySam; 08-28-2017 at 07:17 PM.
12-07-2016 , 07:33 PM

What a difference a day makes ...

Gosh, are stocks ever swingy - guess things could easily take just as big a turn tomorrow? Probably things'll for sure take a turn next week when they lower the interest rates? Guess it's always fun to enjoy a heater though

Going to burrow in and watch the double-episode of Survivor and read my books - nice night to do that in some comfy jammies, under a cozy blanket, with a hot beverage ... hope everybody has a nice evening!

Last edited by TrustySam; 08-28-2017 at 07:18 PM.
12-08-2016 , 01:35 AM

Saw some pretty Christmas tree pictures from around the world while taking a break from my reading

Was finding myself taking quite a few breaks tonight - guess it's been a lot of new info to try and digest It's nice to have this blog as a place to try and summarize info though, because trying to write a little summary sometimes seems like it can help with trying to process stuff?

May give posting a summary a try tomorrow - but not sure if will wind up posting anything ... will give it a try though

Night everybody

Last edited by TrustySam; 08-28-2017 at 07:18 PM.
12-09-2016 , 12:03 AM
More Big Picture Ideas from the Masters, That Show the Similarities Between Investing and Poker

Originally Posted by TrustySam Work Space for Learning How to Research Stocks
Similarities Between Investing in Stocks and Playing Poker

Warren Buffett's Approach, in the Big Picture

From reading the Warren Buffett quotes that everybody's collected, it *sounds* (?) like ...

1. Value comes from being able to accurately assess the quality of a company, and putting money into strong ones (like only putting chips into the middle when having the best hand)

2. Added value comes from capitalizing on other peoples' mistakes - stocks can go on 'sale' when people get pessimistic and sell stocks in companies that are inherently strong, thereby making the price lower than it would normally be , (pots are bigger when other people make big mistakes)

3. However there's variance due to factors outside one's control:
A. The economic and political climate that surround a company can have as much of an impact on a company's performance as the CEO (like a bad board run-out)

B. And sometimes info can be incomplete or inaccurate (bad outcomes are sometimes unavoidable)
4. So bankroll management's important for comfortably weathering heaters and downswings

5. And so is tilt management, to ensure that analysis of the fundamental quality of companies stays the primary focus

Got to the part in my book Stock Market Investing that lists some of the teachings of some of the investors who have become known for beating the market over the long-term. So there was a section on Warren Buffett, and also:
Benjamin Graham
Phillip Fisher
Peter Lynch
William O'Neil
Bill Miller

Some repeat themes were:

1. No One Wants to Invest in the Market When it's Going the Wrong Way

The experts were saying that it's not at all natural to want to buy low and sell high - like with poker, guess most of us want to buy (play more) when on a heater, and sell (stop playing) when in a downswing. Who here would be excited to buy into the market at the end of 2008?
(Graph of the Dow for 2001-2008)

LESSON: So that's apparently the big challenge of investing - is being willing to move in when there's bargains to be had, when you really feel more like sticking on the sidelines?

2. Buying Low, When the Lows are Really Low

Benjamin Graham was saying that the things he uses to help him stay motivated are:

a) Reminding himself that he's sticking with quality - and that quality companies are always rewarded in the long-term.

Guess that's maybe like trying to focus on the quality of one's play, instead of looking at one's graph in the short-term? Here's the Dow in the longer-term, including the recovery after the crash (2001-today) ...

b) Stick with value measures

The experts confirmed that the market's not necessarily 'efficient' in the short-term, and there's definitely bubbles and dips due to people getting overly optimistic or pessimistic - so that's were the extra value can be found, profiting from others' mistakes?

Guess normally stock prices should be rising at about the same rate as profits are rising? Although, found a graph for United Health, for the same period as the first Dow graph up above, 2001-2008 - guess the value measures do show that the price of the stock (in green) was lower than it should be (should have kept rising at the same rate as the profits in red)?

And here's how UNH has done after the crash (2009-today)

LESSON: Guess downswings and tilt are unfortunately a big part of investing too - so focusing on looking for companies with a continued steady rise of profits (EPS) should help keep the focus on finding healthy companies that will do well in the long-term, at a good price ... when we might otherwise be tempted to sell and sit on the sidelines? Also, guess getting in the habit of buying low is supposed to hopefully help make it easier to avoid the temptation of buying high (stock prices rising faster than EPS)?

PS. The only site have found so far that graphs the historical stock prices and profits (EPS) on the same graph so they can be compared like with the United Health graph above is - had to get a 1 month subscription, but then it's easy to see if a company's price is under, over, or just about right? Guess that's the only way to find stocks at a good price?

Last edited by TrustySam; 08-28-2017 at 07:20 PM.
12-09-2016 , 12:41 AM
Buy or Don't Buy?

Example 1. United Health, in 2008

1. Check analyst reports - is there a reason to expect the company to do well in the long-term future? YES
2. Check - see if profits (red line) are doing as well or better than the price (green line) ... YES

It's done really well since ...

Example 2. Disney, in 2015

1. Check analyst reports - is there a reason to expect the company to do well in the long-term future? YES
2. Check - see if profits are doing as well or better than the price ... NO

Guess there was time to wait for the short-term bubble to deflate, for anyone interested in investing in Disney?

Last edited by TrustySam; 08-28-2017 at 07:22 PM.
12-09-2016 , 01:23 AM
My peanut head feels like it's about to explode! Don't even have the energy to add a holiday ornament or a danish like usual

Guess the other repeat theme that all the experts talked about was why companies will do well over the long-term, and what sort of stuff they like to look at to find quality companies. And some of them rely on statistics that have been having trouble figuring out how to use?

So was next maybe going to try looking at different website pages, like the Yahoo Finance page that draws the graphs of all those stocks, and try to see what all those numbers on the side say about each company?

Will give it my best shot! Not sure how it's going to go, but will give it a go

Last edited by TrustySam; 08-28-2017 at 10:55 PM.
12-09-2016 , 07:26 PM
Yahoo Finance - EPS Estimates

Okay, so here's our first try at using some of those statistics listed off to the side of the graphs - GL us!


So to try and keep things focused on the important stuff, we only care about ...
  1. Finding quality companies that will do well (grow) over the long-term
  2. That are selling for a reasonable price - hopefully on sale

Statistic to Help Us Find Those Things - EPS
  1. When earnings (EPS) grow steadily over time, the share price will too
  2. In the short-term when the two are out of sync, that can tell us when a stock might be overpriced or selling at a bargain?

Guess there's been a lot of hype in the news since Trump got elected, about how financial companies should do much better with tax cuts and deregulation, while Trump isn't as fond of Silicon Valley. So here's a couple of high profile stocks that are part of the Dow, that maybe show signs of people reacting to that news?

Example 1. Goldman Sachs

They haven't been doing so great since the crash in 2008, after all those complex financial instruments got outlawed - but after Trump got elected, it's been on fire ...

Now we check Yahoo Finance for the EPS reports of this year, and the overall 2016 estimate - and it says that analysts are only expecting Goldman Sachs to make $15.61 EPS this year? With a so-so-ish record of being accurate with predictions?

Going back to the chart to add in the EPS prediction for the end of the year, it looks like Goldman Sachs is WAAAYYYYYY overvalued at $250, and should only be selling for about $150 per share? Guess people are buying up in the hopes that earnings will improve next year - but some of it may be Trump bubble too?

Example 2. ULTA

Have also had my eye on that Mid-Cap Cosmetics chain that sells pretty cute stuff, like this bath and body set with two bath fizzies that look like macarons ...

They're not over or under priced ... but they're in the middle of a 5-year expansion, so their stock price and earnings have been rising through the roof ...

BUY: May try to pick up some of this as well for my Tax Free Savings Account, after Dec 13/14 if the prices hopefully drop a bit?

Will continue looking at stocks and stats on Sunday - have a nice weekend everybody!

Last edited by TrustySam; 08-28-2017 at 07:25 PM.