Stop-Loss Theory


Probably we would have all been happy to see bitcoin reach $18k today - guess it would have been an especially big milestone, as a very clear sign that bitcoin had reached a new all-time high?

Here's a little illustration from my book, of how stocks in may tend to move in periods of price growth - guess in theory, and oftentimes in practice, when a new all-time high is reached (ceiling 2), the old all-time high (ceiling 1) will tend to become the new low (floor 2)?

A couple of days ago, all the technical analysts were saying the market was very bullish, so hope that's still true and this doesn't happen - but guess there's certain stop-loss theory for when a new all-time high isn't reached, and merely matches the previous level before turning downwards again?

With the stop-loss maybe being when the trendline gets broken?

If am going to try to avoid buying and selling based on fear or greed, should maybe be looking at things like theory which may signal an insufficient amount of liquidity coming in to make up for any outgoing liquidity?

It sounds like it would only be an issue in theory if the price dipped down to something like $14.2k, instead of going up past the former all-time high of $17.1k on Bitfinex ($16.6k on Coindesk?)?

Only bought in at $14.5k to begin with! Not sure if this is the sort of spot should be getting robotic about setting stop-losses? Guess it really shouldn't be coming into play, if the price of bitcoin is going to continue to go up - it seems like there's so much interest in bitcoin, and like everybody's very bullish about it's future ... and the second much larger futures exchange will be opening next Monday, with NASDAQ's opening in the new year, etc.

So the underlying fundamentals appear strong - guess the theory will only start to come into play if the price starts moving towards $14k ... which shouldn't be happening when the fundamentals are strong.


It actually looks like the price could turn upwards - but it also looked like that 6 hours ago! And the price has kept going down.


Haven't clicked the button yet:

Really hope the price keeps going up, so won't have to deal with the possibility of the price going a different way, even if the chance is remote. Guess there were always tricky spots in poker, although for me the money was always so much smaller

Will figure out something ...

Kind of hard to know if theory should apply to an asset that routinely has 30% swings - but set the amount a little higher and pressed the button on the stop-limit, and hopefully the price continues to rise and it just becomes a non-factor ...

People aren't going to want to see this, so anyone who may be a hodler for life no matter what may not want to click on the button - but if bitcoin is digital gold, guess there is a non-zero chance it could mimic the price patterns of the real thing?

Spoiler:

It seems much more likely that the price will go up and not down - really hope that's the case! It's my money at stake!!

My last day of work is on Friday, so am kind of dialing it in


Guess the person who does the technical analysis at CoinDesk is really mostly a writer who does this analysis for his articles - compared to some of the other analysts, his don't seem to factor in as many details?

There's someone on youtube who's been making videos though who's a professional trader who does this for a living - and he just posted a fresh video sometime in the past day.

Here's the highlights of what he's said he's seeing in the charts right now:

• he confirms that ~$17.5k is a 'wall'
• says he's been buying around $16k and selling at $17.5k, and moving to litecoin, ethereum
• calls it 'healthy consolidation'
   
• he confirms the only cause for concern would be if the price drops below $14k, which he says he doesn't really see happening
   
• says the bulls still in charge, and he's not seeing any indicators that would give cause for concern
• sees it sitting at these levels for a couple of days before pushing higher
   
• he offers a note of caution because of the huge euphoria in the air - he says there will be times when the price goes up and pulls back and goes up again, but that one day it's going to pull back and not go up again and it's going to stay down, so it's really important to be prepared for that

He doesn't mention what he'll be looking for as signs that something like that may be impending. And he doesn't mention how high he believes bitcoin may go.

Guess it's up to each person to decide how much stock they want to put into these analyst reports Have noticed possible signs of there being recreationals in the pool as well - if they're the people who are buying at times when traders don't seem like they would ... like at the very peak of a high and stuff? So who knows

Just bought some litecoin - there's a technical indicator called a bull flag that's supposed to have about 67% reliability in showing that another sharp rise is likely to happen?

Of course, am massive fish who's still learning - so the amount is small, and will be at peace with results no matter what, even if the price tanks 300% in 2 minutes And thanks to crypto kitties, have some ethereum as well

Am sort of liking this idea of buying several different assets with promise - guess it helps to smooth the variance, so when one isn't moving on one day, there's still the chance of something else doing okay?

May have an idea of what to watch for bitcoin in the coming days? Please keep in mind am just a fish! So, please take all of this with a grain of salt

Haven't seen anything about this from technical analysis sites - guess it came more from school ... but was noticing that the shape of the rise the first time was more bowl-like, with volume rising as the price rose? While this time it looks like it's more dome-like, with volume declining as the price rises?

Maybe (?) something to possibly watch for, that may (?) be a sign of possible dwindling recreational fomo in the coming days may be the shape and amount of the new all-time high? It sounds like everybody's hoping the price may reach a new all-time high of $20k - so maybe a good sign of fomo might be if the price goes even higher than expected and rises all the way up to $22k or whatever? And then on the other hand, maybe a sign a sign of more trader-heavy participation if it only goes up to something like $19k or whatever?

Really not sure - will have to see what unfolds


Update: Haven't gone busto on the litecoin - yet!

Too bad, can't seem to get into Coinbase - the price for LTC on Bitfinex is only $285, and on Coinbase it's $346? Could people buy it on Bitfinex and sell it on Coinbase? Litecoin's supposed to transfer pretty quickly?

Wasn't sure if the pattern was still enough of a flag/pennant to continue to hold?? So decided to sell - which means it's highly likely to go up tomorrow

Will try to stick with very clear patterns while still learning - even if am just buying mini-amounts. Guess this is just for practice, so will see how things go ...

One thing about litecoin - with it's small market cap, guess it only takes a relatively small amount of fresh new money to achieve large gains?

The price just refuses to go down


Does this still look like a flag or a dinosaur?

Was reading more about timing a bull flag, and guess the time to buy is when the flag is over - so it would be when the price rises back to $320, and the volume starts to rise?

Also, ideally there should seem to be a reason for the price to want to continue to rise -


Am kind of getting tired of crypto - one thing about stocks was that there were earnings estimates available that were oftentimes quite reliable. So there really wasn't much risk involved at all in achieving double digit gains. Guess supply/demand commodities are a different animal - people who stress about weakening demand risk pulling out too early, but people who stress about missing out on gains risk pulling out too late ... two different sides of the coin, but we all struggle with the coin ...

That wasn't a great analogy, but am not a poet


GL to everybody still in the market struggling with whether to hold or sell, and if sell then when - would imagine it must feel rather stressful, with the amount of money at stake.

Looks like there was fresh attempt at a LTC rally this morning, and it ran out of steam:

The price still rose about 10% from last night, which is nothing to sneeze at!


Everybody's still expecting bitcoin's price to rise - wonder though if maybe recreationals are more interested in finding the 'next bitcoin', instead of buying more of the real thing? Is that why LTC and ETC have been taking off?

Have a new sweat - added one more ETH to my crypto-kitties fund, so now have 3.

Am trying super hard to reduce my greed and fear trading, by trying to focus more on the info - underlying fundamentals, buzz, investor interest, technical indicators. Have been really good about hodling my crypto-kitties profits. So hopefully am making progress ...

Gosh - it hit the stop-loss already. That didn't go as hoped - but it did go as planned for.

With small enough amount, am finding it's definitely possible to truly not care about the outcomes either way - so we're making progress

This may be my most important post of the thread - the line is where my first attempt at trying to conquer my fear of hodling was made ... and then went and sold my ETH, and look what it costed me ...

Am going to take a chance on ETH and LTC going up - will try not to look at prices until the new year. That should make it much easier to hodl.

My new phone arrived today, and was setting up all the settings - and coinbase, quadriga, and google authenticator keep popping up in the app store. As well, was doing some nightly reading, and there's crypto articles everywhere. It seems like ETH and LTC have been getting just as much attention, and it takes so much less $ for them to grow? Hopefully they continue to make double-digit gains?


Happy Holidays everybody!

These are such different times for crypto than a couple of months ago before things went mainstream.

Hope am correct in betting on people wanting to find the 'next bitcoin' - and hopefully they feel there's enough features in ETC and LTC for them to possibly fit that bill? ETC only needs to reach $1,500 to return 50% gains, and LTC only needs to reach $600 to achieve a return of 50% - while BTC would need to reach $33k to return 50%. It seems like a 50% return on ETC and LTC may be doable if even BCH is trading ~$2k these days?? Bitcoin branding some might argue - also fewer coins ... but still ...

Almost bought some ripple yesterday as well, because it's the 4th coin that's getting lots of buzz - does it have the 3rd or 4th largest market cap, and several partnerships with corporations? But the graph didn't look that healthy, with the *huge* ups and downs.

It's astounding how much money there is available to move numbers the way they are - especially now that all the S. Korean kids are having to pull their $ out of the market, and focus back on school


Will wait for a different entry point to buy back in - it seems like the price of XRP should drop soon? Will be interesting to see how little the drop is - if it's not very big a drop, maybe that'll be like how bitcoin used to be ... up, up, up?

It looks like there's still so much opportunity left in the market - this time am feeling quite okay with hodling, because it feels like things are still getting started for some of the other crypto-currencies.


Current price of XRP: $87.50

Will see if it drops down to $70?

Funny how we can be hoping for the price to plummet or moon.


Good call on google authenticator and similar token generators.

I have made the move to replace all my sms/text authentication to these apps.

Have yet to found myself wishing for the price to fall - guess because everything would be so much simpler if the price continued to only ever rise ... please, just keep rising, and make me rich already haha!

Wishing the price would go down - guess is that related to wondering if a choice was optimal?

These are such interesting times - it seems like everything's been exploding, but everything's very swingy at times and flat at other times as well, with multiple coins now in play. Up until now hodling has been highly effective - but at this point maybe even hodlers may be looking around with fomo, and possibly some second-guessing?

Cryptos can be quite harsh - the variance feels a bit like the graphs have seen of the hyper-turbo pro in the PG&C section Guess none of us can be at the right place at the right time all the time, and catch every big rush It can be hard to do, but maybe best to try and be kind to ourselves, and cut ourselves a break - and be thankful that cryptos are still so hot, and there still seems to be plenty of opportunity available, and all that?


The only thing about Google Authenticator is that it's a bit of a pain to have to log in to the exchange, switch screens to get the 2FA number, remember the number, switch screens again, and then type it in before the number turns into a new one - otherwise wind up having to start all over again lol Guess the text doesn't expire. But ya guess they're both supposed to help - remember reading somewhere that the last time an exchange got hacked, apparently the hackers only bothered with the accounts that didn't have 2FA ... so, ya worth the effort.


Take care HUMBLE.! May crypto be kind to us!!

Am still learning, so can't be sure - but with BTC having been in a cooling off period for several days now, those technical analysis numbers make it seem like it could be finally be ready for a fresh spurt of growth, this time to new all-time highs?

Still learning though!! So who knows


Of the top 5 market cap cryptos getting all the buzz, it looks like maybe next good may be LTC? And ETH looks like it could use a couple of days to cool off - but who knows?

XRP just refuses to go down! People seem desperate to get into ripple, so hopefully a good sign that it'll continue to rise, when the time is right?


Am going to try to hold 25% of each of the 4 coins, but will wait a couple of days to buy ripple. Hopefully that's a nice amount of each to have?


The Great American Baking Show's on tonight - watched the Great Canadian Baking Show, and the Great British Baking Show yesterday, and they're all so lovely! Also SWAT's on lol. Am still reading my book as well - so that's what's on the agenda for tonight

Oops - guess that was supposed to say $0.87 and $0.70? whoops!


It looks like Ripple finally dropped down to $0.70, so picked some up - maybe a terrible spot to buy?? But hopefully one of my 4 coins will start to rise soon - hopefully BTC?


GL us!!

Bitcoin tried so hard to get something going - and then it ran out of steam

Before the rally, had just set up my portfolio to have 25% of 4 of the 5 coins with the largest market cap, BTC, ETH, LTC, and XRP. And was a bit shocked to see a rise in BTC price actually cause the value of my portfolio to shrink! It looks like as bitcoin started to rise, everybody started pulling out of the other coins, to try and catch the bitcoin rally?

Watching everybody pull out of the other coins to pile into bitcoin, reminded me of that scene in the holiday movie Deck The Halls, where someone gets the idea to try and light up his house so bright, that he'll be able to see it from the satellite camera feed he found on the internet - and when he plugs all the lights into his outlet, they need so much power, they wind up shorting out the entire neighborhood?

That's what watching bitcoin try to get something going reminded me of - it's gotten so big, it seems like it needs so much juice to spark a rally? The price hasn't been dropping, but each new all-time high seems to barely surpass the last one?

On the bright side, managed to dollar cost average some more ETH, LTC, and XRP while they were all in the dumps - so am happy with my hodl. Now just need to get lucky to hopefully catch one of those huge rallies!


It's nice that bitcoin's still up a bit for the day - maybe some fresh money will start pouring in when the new futures exchange opens up in a couple of days? Wonder if it will open up on Sunday night like the last one - is that typical? It seems like such a strange time to start trading ...

Looks like everything's been quiet in the crypto world tonight - maybe everybody's busy trying to make sure everything else gets done before the holidays?


Managed to pick up a little gift for my nephews today - it's a book on football, that's shaped like a football.

(found a pic of the book on the internet)

The cashier tried to toss it to me like it was a real football - have a feeling at least one of my nephews may wish it were an actual ball instead of a book, and try to do the same The other one may like the pics though. Thankfully my family's not shy about putting together lists of what they'd really like for Christmas! Helpful to know they want a certain kind of golf ball or face cream, so don't have to spend as much time wandering around the hot mall getting distracted by all the stuff would like to be getting for myself


Hope there's some holiday gifts in store for us in the crypto world tomorrow!

Night everybody

Spotted a hot deal over at Roots - a gift for you, is a gift for me haha!

Kind of a weird typo - but that's what's showing on their website. Roots stuff is always so nice to give and receive for Christmas, because it's so timeless and lasts forever. Have received some nice totes and purses over the years, and they still look good as new.

Wish their footwear fit me, but my feet are kind of narrow, and their shoes tend to be a bit on the wider side.


Anyways ...

Just finished up another low budget holiday movie on Lifetime while rolling around in my jammies on the couch - am now watching the news and am trying to get motivated to do a little holiday e-shopping



Was going to get a gift-certificate to the restaurant reservation service Open Table for my brother and his wife, but wanted to add a list of restaurant recommendations for where they might be able to use it? Looks like the restaurant scene in a couple of the big California cities is super huge, like in NYC and Las Vegas - did a google search for 'new restaurants' and 'best restaurants' and 'top restaurants' and got a flood of articles with very up-to-date recommendations. Looks like lots of those famous name chefs have spots in LA, so this may take a while to put together a list.


Today was the last day of my job doing legal stuff for the government. Always figured would want to be a lawyer, but after working in the field for a couple of years, wasn't so sure any more - especially if it meant having to go back to school for 3 more years? So it's lovely to have this opportunity to go in a different direction and help out with the family small business.

Will be getting more pay for less work - so right off that bat, that should be pretty cool haha! It's also a chance to learn new things about how to run and possibly grow a small business. So am really looking forward to that.


Anyways - so today's also the start of my holiday vacation! That means will have a chance to devote 100% of my attention to following crypto for the next little while lol ...


Funny thing about those great gains showing next to LTC and ETH right now - they look so great, but it's only because this time yesterday both their prices were in the dumps while everybody was pouring into bitcoin. A couple of days ago their price was actually higher - so am actually down a little bit with those two so far.

Have started following the crypto market cap website, and it says something like $5bil was added to the crypto market today - gosh, where did it all go? Am not seeing very much of it in my account right now

Nice to see bitcoin on a rally today Although a +$1k rise in bitcoin's price isn't causing the pop in gains like it used to - guess we were all pretty lucky to get in as early as we did, even when it seemed 'late', at US$3.5k or whatever


Fun thing - everybody who made a purchase of one those discount coupons through Travelzoo this year apparently received a free $25 credit from Shutterfly, as some sort of promo thing (no minimum purchase needed to redeem). Travelzoo sells full travel packages, like they had a 7 day trip to China available for $600 with flight included a couple of weeks ago? My purchase that qualified me for the Shutterfly credit was just the tickets for that 2hr Statue of Liberty cruise up and down the Hudson River in NYC - the tickets were only something like $25 each to begin with? So pretty happy to have made the list for the free credit!

Was going to use it to make a book of old photos to give to my brother for Christmas - which means having to scan and download all the photos so there'll be something to put in the book lol

Guess that should keep me busy, before heading out to the Christmas Market down by the lakefront later on

Managed to find something out about investing graphs and technical analysis indicators – not from anything have seen on the internet, but because of poker with a little bit of school thrown into the mix?


HUDs and Other Indicators

A common view of poker is that it's just gambling, because nobody can know what future cards will be dealt. And a common view of technical analysis is that it's like trying to read tea leaves, because one can't tell what will happen in the future from looking at the past.

But there are edges to be found in poker from knowing certain things about people and probability - and HUDs can help increase the likelihood of positive outcomes and help minimize risk, as they're mathematical models of human behavior. It seems like some of the technical analysis indicators maybe do the same thing - they measure the nature of demand?

TA Helps Find 'True' Growth Rate, Helps Lower Variance

Guess underpinning the usage of technical analysis indicators is the fact that the market for something can grow in different ways - like there can either be slow and steady price growth, or it can come in fits and spurts? And like with poker, it seems that slow and steady growth over the long-term is more likely to be a more accurate indication of 'true' growth, if there's fewer one-time heaters and downswings?

There's an indicator called the RSI that essentially measures the degree of 'spurt' in run-ups, that's very popular. If anyone's noticed how rallies in price keep getting knee-capped while they've just gotten going, guess it's because people using technical analysis have been taught to be suspicious of fast and large spurts in price? So when the RSI says that one has happened, it tells them to sell and sit on the sidelines and wait and watch to make sure there's enough 'true' support to sustain the price at it's new higher levels?

Limitations of Technical Analysis Indicators

Guess like how a HUD can't tell a person if they'll win a tournament, these technical indicators don't seem to be very good at showing how high a price may go, or how low it may fall - it's definitely not a crystal ball That seems to be especially true when the variance is more erratic, coming in fits and spurts - because then there's no way of knowing if there'll be more?

Some Findings From the Bitcoin Graph - Help in Setting a Stop-Loss

Something was able to see from bitcoin's graphs, is that a rise in price to $20k by tomorrow night would seem to require a faster and larger 'spurt' of fresh money, at a rate that's higher than the money's been coming in so far?

The rise in price hasn't been slow and steady, so there were different ways to interpret the graph, but both seem to show that it will require a more rapid injection of money than there's been in the last while? (Am not totally sure though?? )

If that's the case (not sure if that's the case! ) - maybe chart-reading can help set a stop-loss? Both charts seem to show that if the prices rise to $20k, a pull-back to around $17.5k would be normal? So if there's a drop below that, especially if it happens really fast ... would that maybe be a sign of an unexpected sell-off?

Set my stop-losses yesterday, but maybe the one for bitcoin may be a bit too low?

But yeah, technical analysis doesn't seem to be helpful at predicting prices, only that there'll tend to be pull-backs that would be normal. Looks like the price is already almost at $20k - who really knows where things are going to go with bitcoin in the coming days ... maybe it'll go all the way up to $25k, and keep going??


Hope the person who's been posting technical analysis videos on youtube posts another one soon - he's very thorough, and always prepares for every scenario, so it would be nice to hear what he'll be looking for in the coming days ...


CLIFFS: Technical Analysis may be helpful in setting stop-limits, by showing when a sell-off is larger than normal?

Gosh, have started trying to adjust to west coast time, because will be flying out there on Tuesday. But still woke up at 7am, and saw on my iPad that bitcoin was on the verge of breaking $20k.

If had been in front of my computer, would have seen that it started to take a turn, and was likely going to go down. Right now, everything looks good for a rally - but am not seeing any signs of interest in that right now?


The person who does the technical analysis on youtube really delivered with his vid yesterday - he pointed out that the run-up to the start of futures trading on the CME is different from the run-up to the start of futures trading on the CBOE. Because in the days before the CBOE began offering futures, the markets were flat - while in the days before today's CME there's been a rally.

Also noticed something else that's different - now there's the CBOE futures to look at, and yesterday the one for January actually started trading lower than bitcoin's current price. So not sure, but at the start of today's CME - is there a chance the price could drop, rather than rise?


Who knows though - maybe at the start of trading tonight the price will rise to $22k! Am not really sure