Got so philosophical when fatigued lol


So impossible to time the market just right ...

A couple of positive things am seeing this morning - it looks like there may be a floor at $14k for how low the price may be going (for now?)? And all the other alt-coins seem to be up today - is the market cap for crypto at an ATH? Maybe bitcoin's just staying down because all the traders moved their money to other coins, and there's a chance they may rush back into bitcoin if there's a rise again before Monday?

On the other side of the coin - my guess as to what's happening in the market is no better than anybody else's ... if bitcoin's being bubblish though, is there a chance things may be here on the graph now? With the first dot being where my sale was at $10k?

Was reading the hedge fund ceo say that he feels like the bubble pinnacle could reach as high as $40k-$50k because institutional money hasn't entered the pool. Although, historically it looks like that usually happens before the public jumps in? Is it possible a coin that's anti-bank may wind up lacking the involvement of the establishment until well after any potential bubble has burst? Like maybe they won't get in until much farther down the road, or something? And maybe the graph won't decline nearly as severely as in the pic above?


Not sure if will be buying back into bitcoin today - will have to see what things are like tomorrow.

Also ... not sure if it may be feeling like there may be some tough choices to be made for some of you still in the market right now? Hodl for the long-term or sell - and if sell, when? It must feel like trying to decide to call or fold for all of one's chips at the final table of the tournament of a lifetime? Wonder if maybe this is one of those situations where we should all be trying to not be results oriented? Although am finding it hard not to be. Best of luck to everybody with their bitcoin today <3

Wish it were nice enough out to go for a jog - kind of feels like there's still a ton of stress chemicals streaming through my body, and it feels like a nice long run would have helped take off some of the edge?

Was going to try to get back to my usual daily grinds, by going out to Rexall to take advantage of their generous weekend airmile bonus!

Was going to pick up some BOGO fish oil supplements. Was noticing a big difference in my mood this year, after starting to eat more salmon, so started to take fish oil supplements to see if they'd have the same effect - not sure if am feeling the same difference when taking fish oil so far though?

The resources on the internet all seem to say that the benefits of taking fish oil supplements have yet to be proven - although my mom's doctor recommended she try taking fish oil supplements to help with her cholesterol before trying perscription medicine, and she said they worked to reduce her cholesterol without needing any real medication. So maybe there's some benefits to be had from taking fish oil - although do not seem to be noticing any just yet?


Guess it will take a while to decompress and get back to the usual routine - will try to be kind to myself, and take it easy

Was lying around, wallowing in my depression, with my self-esteem still feeling like it's somewhere under the sea - and got a bit of a spark of inspiration. Seem to remember seeing something a while ago, about how the shares of some companies have skyrocketed since announcing that they were looking into ways to possibly add blockchain technology to their products/services. Maybe taking some time to look more into how companies may be starting to use blockchain technology may be way to try and get back on that horse?


Have also been reading Tim Ferriss stuff on learning to see failure as an opportunity for success, and found some lovely quotes on that same idea - here's one from Ellen ...

Really like Ellen and Oprah - they've accomplished so much, and yet they seem so genuinely nice and kind, and interesting and thoughtful? Ellen's quote here where she talks about failure and success being the two possible outcomes of taking risks sounds like she could be describing a couple of poker hands being revealed on the river Pretty nice to get yet another reminder that oftentimes maybe important to try and remember that sometimes there's variance and uncertainty - and so maybe results aren't always going to be the best way of evaluating an experience?

Maybe helpful to try to focus more on the stuff have learned along the way that can be used to make improvements in the future, or something like that?


Okay, will do some of my reading now

Am watching low-budget Netflix original holiday movies to help soothe my depression - huge bombshell in The Christmas Prince ... the soon-to-be King was adopted!

There were a couple of other quotes from the same page as Ellen's - found it helpful seeing them all listed together, because everybody basically gives the same advice, but says it in a way that sounds so personal to them. It made it feel like the advice was so close to their heart and went to the core of who they are - and everybody's so successful, that it made it feel like they all know this great secret to life that they're all trying to share?

(for Johnny Cash, and JK Rowling)

So setbacks are a positive - setbacks are a positive! It's kind of a paradox, so needed this one other quote to really start to feel like my mind was truly starting to warm to the idea they were trying to share:

You know what, no matter how things have gone with all of our bitcoin and other alt-coins, stock market portfolios, and poker - all of us who come to this site are super life lucky to be the type of people who has a passion for these sorts of things, and is really good at them. Only a certain percentage of the population fits that bill - and for those of us who do, there's always going to be other opportunities after bitcoin, there are. We're all very lucky ...


After finding all that advice online, started to feel more ready to start assessing the damage and do some assessments of my bitcoin experience.

The accounting of the 'what ifs' made me realize the difference if everything had gone exactly right wasn't as huge as it felt, in looking at the sharp rise of the graph - for some reason it felt more painful to have to calculate the capital gains haha!

And then, through looking at things step by step made me realize that some of the beginner mistakes was making were bound to happen sooner or later - so they were probably inevitable, and best learned now? The damage would have been much more severe if had managed to grow a large portfolio based largely on run-good - and then made those same mistakes ...

Then looking at how my $10k +$5k balooned to $51k allowed me to see the randomness of the crypto market, that had me in the right place at the right time to profit from the BCH pump and dump. It really helped bring home what Ellen was saying about how anytime there's risk and uncertainty, there will be positive outcomes and ones that are less so?


Am really starting to take to heart those ideas that it really is better to take risks and be willing to fail - because setbacks are a good thing that make us better people, and teach us new things. And there will always be other opportunities, there will ...


My sleep schedule's all messed up - bitcoin's been really stressful, so guess it's helpful to take some time to heal?

Just going to copy over some stuff from the trading thread over in the investing section:



Should be able to rebuild and reach ATHs with my portfolio by investing in the stock market in a decently short amount of time - with possibly lower risk than there might be now with bitcoin?

In the new year, am going to try to hit the learning resources super hard, and learn as much as is out there. Sometimes that can be a real slog, when there's an excess of info that has to be waded through to find those couple of helpful nuggets. But stumbling upon those one or two gems usually makes it feel like the efforts have been worth the while - and all am usually doing is rolling around on the couch in my jammies watching silly shows like SWAT, so no big deal lol ...


They had some interesting-looking web classes scheduled at TD last month, but they were all during the day. May try to see if the recordings are available on demand? They sounded like they may have had some helpful info - on using options as a hedge, how to trade after hours, how long-term investors may still be able to benefit from using technical analysis, etc.

Probably should have started up with the learning materials much sooner, but was doing well thanks to run-good and got lazy. Probably having a couple of stumbles has given me the motivation to finally get going - so hopefully this is me turning a setback into a positive, and will be all the better for taking some chances?


Hope everybody's having a nice weekend! <3

Just turned on Saturday Night Live, and in the opening skit they had children asking Santa for gifts inspired by current events - with an ~8yr old asking Santa for bitcoin

Don't have the comedic timing to translate the funny from the screen to the page That's the second reference to bitcoin there's been on tv in two weeks though! There was that Big Bang episode a couple of weeks ago too - guess that shows how mainstream bitcoin's become?


The technical analyst over at CoinDesk Okmar appears to have perhaps taken the weekend off - may buy back into bitcoin with a fraction of my previous money, if he starts to see signs that the correction is winding down?

or winding up?

The animated holiday windows downtown at The Bay were cute, but they weren't very festive this year!

Wonder if maybe most recreationals may tend to buy when prices are on an upswing instead of a downswing? That's what will usually tend to do myself In the new year, will really have to try to do better with buying low and selling high, instead of the opposite


Anyways, guess if in times like now it's mostly traders who are actively in the pool - it seems like this may be when technical analysis may be good for getting an idea of how other people who are using technical analysis may be deciding when to buy and sell?

While Omkar over at CoinDesk is taking the weekend off, managed to find another site that gives some really neat buy/sell advice based on technical indicators: https://ca.investing.com/currencies/btc-usd-technical

Maybe this helps explain why the prices are stuck right now between a certain range - if it's mostly traders who are trading, and they're all using the same technical analysis results?


Here's some technical analysis results/advice from the site, from a couple of minutes ago - will put them in a spoiler ...

Spoiler:

Current price is $13,457 - if it's all traders in the pool, technical analysis seems to show that other people who are using technical analysis will start selling around $13,700-$13,825?

Like maybe technical analysis doesn't really predict - but it can be helpful as an indicator of how a big portion of the market will tend to behave? Which can sometimes be nice to know, instead of always wondering?

haha!! Yes, maybe meant to say that instead! Am not sure - have now confused myself


You're not in So Cal anywhere near the wildfires by any chance, are you SA? Pretty scary how they've broken out all over S. California - and they spread so fast!

Am watching Netflix right now because SNL wasn't very funny after the opening skit - gave Office Christmas Party with Jennifer Aniston a try, but have now started watching You Again with Kristen Bell, and it's quite entertaining!

Thanks again for the recommend - nice to have so many movies available to watch anytime there's nothing else on tv

Was watching, and it looks like the price went as high as $13,850 - but then took a turn ...

Now the site says the price may turn back up anywhere between $13,460 and $13,667? Possibly $13,331?

Am going to sleep now though - will have to see where the prices landed tomorrow ...

I feel exhausted for you Sam! I'm pretty sure I would have difficulty sleeping riding the bitcoin express

Hey Rexx!! Thank you for stopping by to express some concern - have heard before that that sometimes peoples' best qualities can also be the very things that provide them the most grief. Guess being someone as big-hearted and compassionate as you must feel all the emotions that come up in your life ... as well as many of the strong emotions of others?


Am actually doing well - and just bought back into bitcoin, but with the experience to know how little experience i actually have, and with awareness of how much more there still is left to learn. So have gotten back on that horse, this time mindful of the fact that anytime there's a learning curve, and anytime there's risk involved, there's going to be stumbles along the way.

So will see how things go - am so sorry to have caused you worry. It's quite a gift you have, to be so attuned and empathetic to others - and we're all very fortunate to have you around here at 2+2 ... thank you for sharing your gifts with all of us

Have a wonderful Sunday!!

Fell asleep pondering bitcoin lol! Guess when technical analysis indicators are set up the way they are over at investing.com, is it basically a bot that tells traders the optimal line?

Except guess these indicators show demand or lack of demand - and if it's only traders playing GTO, was wondering if maybe the graph wouldn't start to rise until there was fresh money starting to pour into the system, due to some sort of catalyst, like the beginning of futures trading tomorrow? Unless the GTO bots tell them to start buying themselves?


Was looking at the bot on investing.com, and many of the indicators were saying to buy. And with the futures exchange opening tomorrow, it seems like maybe the price may continue to rise today? So decided to buy back into bitcoin One of the experienced traders in the trading thread was saying that it's unrealistic to feel like any short-term trade is more than 60% likely to rise. And someone else was pointing out how from the Kelly Criterion study, it looked like maybe it was common for people to confuse a 60% likelihood with 100%?

Not sure what the true Kelly ratio may be in this situation, and how much it should be modified for me being a noob relying solely on the TA from investing.com Because the whole thing of Kelly is that it's as big a mistake to bet too small as it is too big?

Decided to buy 0.5 bitcoin - and as am typing this, it's starting to seem like maybe that's a decent amount to start ... things just took a turn, although there does seem to be a floor.


Will watch for a couple of hours, but then have to go out for a while - will see how things go ...

My anti-virus expired last night, so am installing my new one while watching the bitcoin charts - will buy whatever's selling for cheaper at the time my current one expires, so last year had Norton, and this year had to get McAfee. They both seem to work well, but to switch over had to uninstall Norton and that meant having to reboot the computer ... gosh, what am willing to do to save a couple of bucks lol ...


Have been relying quite heavily on the new Tim Ferriss book Tribe of Mentors to help give me guidance over the last couple of days. And Patton Oswaldt shared a story of how when he decided to get into comedy, he was willing to take a financial hit to devote himself full-time to learning his new craft - and by immersing himself in it, he feels like he cut his learning curve from about 10 years down to around 1 or 2?

Maybe it would be more prudent for me to sit on the sidelines and read up a storm before jumping back into the pool to give things a fresh try - but have read a bunch of people say the same as Patton, that if you do so with the intent of trying to minimize risk, it's a mistake because there's always going to be risk? And sometimes you learn more faster by being engaged?


Am using better bankroll management - so will see how things go ...

Am already screwing up anew, and learning new things - yes!


Came home in time to start with a fresh do-over - bought in at ~$14,518?

May sell if it goes above $15,400 or so and meets resistance, and then may wait to see if it drops to buy again?

If not, would be lovely to be able to hodl long-term. There seems to be quite a bit of hype for the new exchange opening tomorrow - maybe that will attract fresh interest from recreationals?

GL to me with my new 0.5 bitcoin!

There's a bunch of books available to borrow on amazon.ca, that are free with a kindle unlimited subscription - and they have a free 60 day trial available right now on groupon ...

Just borrowed this ...

Have my free Tim Hortons Double Double Visa latte on my side ...

And started up Elf on Netflix - so am all set to have a study session now. Am really starting to appreciate how taking chances and making mistakes can be such a good thing - have to say it's super motivating (!) to want to get better *fast*! To try and do whatever's possible to try to prevent future ones from happening again

Cracking open the books now - gl me!

Wow, some enormous swings once the exchange opened!

Okay, thanks to the Kelly Criterion, have invested an amount in bitcoin that am truly willing to lose - which should allow me to hodl, without having to worry about short-term swings, which can be enormous

The kindle book's pretty good - the section on trading actually started by talking about mental game issues, rather than chart reading. They describe how it can sometimes feel to have to experience variance, and then go on to talk about how important it is to not focus on results, and have good bankroll management - just like with poker?


Nice to find a resource that seems like it should be helpful, right off the back - am going to keep reading

EDIT - oh, never mind

Here's the link to the price of those futures: https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/?symbol=@XBT.1

The investing/trading book is fantastic - it's great to find advice from someone who's got a lifetime of experience under there belt, who then understands where people are at, and can offer tips that will really make a difference?


His tips at the beginning of the book on mental game stuff are quite a bit like Jared Tendler's. Here he talks about keeping one's focus on making solid investment choices, and avoiding wondering if they were 'right' or 'wrong' - especially in light of results, since there's so much variance?

Was surprised and relieved to hear him say this happens to everybody?

And he was pretty kind about describing two of the more common beginner mistakes - the first is fomo

And the second is proper bankroll management

This book reminds me quite a bit of Arnold Snyder's poker book as well - guess they both have a ton of experience ... and both are very good at observing people and incorporating that into their play?


Kind of surprising how those futures started trading on a Sunday night - instead of on a Monday morning? Anyways, it looks like they're still trading higher than the current price of bitcoin - kind of nice to get a little reassurance that people are optimistic about the prices going higher?

Did everybody have a good day of following the market?

When the markets take a turn and a downswing hits, sometimes it can be easy to forget what it can feel like when the markets take a turn again, and the upswing hits. Any gains lost can be so quickly made back


Am looking forward to cracking open the e-books tonight - lots of new info to process, but the stuff have been learning has been life-changing! Am really excited to see what other new things will be learning today that will be helpful tomorrow, and the day after that

Will also be watching the charts of course - will have to see if bitcoin will maybe be able to reach $17.7k sometime tonight? Have had to up my investment because of Kelly - it may have been a little too small before, given the potential for gains in the next week + ? Won't watch the charts too closely though! Except for learning purposes

Okay, going to have a little dinner, and then hit the e-resources!

Just wanted to copy over some more observations/experience/info/insights from the Trading Thread over in the Investing section, that caught my eye:


Proper Bet Sizing to Help with Risk Management and Tilt

Quote:

Originally Posted by ToothSayer

To me he's referring to a question of self management and risk management.

4. People go on tilt. They have bad judgement. It is just human nature and there's nothing to be done about it. If you variable size, you wipe out your account on bad trades when you're on tilt or when your judgment is wrong. Large sizing tends to correlate with tilting - it happens in every field, from poker to trading to casino gambling.

These are some pretty basic principles of trading you need to understand. Smaller/standard sizing help you in the following ways:

- You feel no emotional pain at appropriately cutting losers

- You don't mind letting winners run, because it's not a huge amount of your stack and it doesn't have great emotional importance

- You're isolated from tilt. You cannot blow up your stack during the two tired or emotional or distracted days you're guaranteed to have a month.

- You're on an even keel, and all trades have the same basic mechanics. Keeping key things the same allows you to notice subtle anomalies and similarities. You get a richer, more nuanced feel for what's going on. This is just a general life rule, and it applies to trading to.

- Your stress levels are lower and you are more detached - you simply decide to enter or not, and how long to let it run for, without the agonizing decision of how much to bet and if you're missing out. Discipline is essential for a trader, because our minds and emotions and judgment is flawed in so many ways.

Quote:

Originally Posted by BrianTheMick2

I'm sure it all makes sense, but the reasoning was incorrect.

An easy, non-mathy way to understand it is that I'll offer you two wagers, and you can make the wager as often as you'd like and both are available to choose from:

1) You roll a die, and if it lands on 1, 2, 3, 4, or 5 you double your remaining life expectancy (with corresponding healthiness in the added years). If it lands on 6, you die instantly.

2) You roll a die, and if it lands on 1, 2, 3 or 4, you add one day to your remaining life expectancy (same healthiness conditions apply). If it lands on 5 or 6, you lose one day of your remaining life expectancy.

I hope your intuition tells you (assuming that you like being alive) that the second bet should be made an infinite number of times, even though the EV of each bet is lower than the first by approximately one metric ****-ton, and the first bet should be made approximately zero times.

Bet Sizing That's Too Large

Quote:

Originally Posted by Clayton

to me LTCM is a good case study in the opposite direction, overconfidence, less the fact that they bet too much (tho i guess the principles are pretty intertwined).

it would be like having the heads/tails game but the coin lands heads 99.5% of the time (but the actual odds of the coin are not disclosed) and you have 1000 tosses. LTCM would be the group that's convinced that the coin never lands on tails and just goes all in every single toss.

to me it's less about LTCM having the balls to have skin in the game, it's more that they felt they built a system that literally couldn't lose, so why wouldn't you just go all in every single time if you knew you'd never lose? when in reality black swans are a thing and no such system exists. if LTCM had a system where it's 95% winners and not 100% winners you'd figure they would still probably underbet kelly... only by virtue of thinking they were at 100% were they the only ones who actually bet huge.

ton;53218916]all a function of how bankroll is managed. very analogous to poker. difference between the best and the worst is how they interpret the edge (the worst may be overconfident) and how they manage their downside (the best risk a fixed % and stick to it, the worst could risk it all under duress)[/QUOTE]

Bet Sizing That's Too Small

Quote:

Originally Posted by ToothSayer

Right, but imagine you could just "get over it" and trade appropriately while taking larger size? You would crush the people who trade appropriately taking smaller size. Is this really such a hard thing to do?

Your position here is that doubling or more your EV is -EV. That's an extraodrinary leak...if you can work around even a part of the source of that leak, you're gonna do a lot better. Compounded it leaves the other strategies in the dust.

Imagine you bet 5% of your stack and double every trade.
Now compare with someone who has the same entries and exits and bets 10% of their stack and doubles every trade.

After 100 trades:

- Regular sizer has 131x his starting money
- Double size has 13780x his starting money

Basically, double size is 104 times richer than regular sizer.

Guess anything can happen, but it looks like the price may be close to it's short-term bottom, and will either start to go sideways or up?

The more have seen of 'the market' responding to technical analysis indicators (traders with bots), the more it's seeming like a tool that can help with investing - only because others are using it. To not at least learn how to use it kind of seems like trying to play poker without a HUD? Guess it's okay if nobody else is using one, but if a lot of people are, maybe it can't hurt to know what it is the other people in the pool may be looking at?

Quote:

Originally Posted by TrustySam

Have another passage from my book about why it's important to stop trading on fear and greed like a fish, and get more in the habit of relying on info and bankroll management, so then can have peace with our choices no matter what the outcome?

Will put it in a spoiler, because it may make some people uncomfortable to read! Sorry for the post!

Ahhh, looks like not tonight -