Hey SA - great to hear that you're portfolio's still doing well as well!!


Am mostly relieved to not be busto - at least not yet Guess that's always the fear with investing, when there's uncertainty?

Have a bunch more to add - guess will go to the store and grab some salad, and then will post more stuff after dinner ...


Thanks for stopping by with the nice message SA - that made my day!

Hey Sam congratulations on your stock success starting from a 10k investment to where your at is inspiring makes me think about buying a few shares of Coca-Cola in part because the town of Quincy 30 miles away from me in Tallahassee at one part in the early 20th century had the highest population density of millionaires in the USA. Largely because a local bank manager encouraged all of his farmer clients to invest all of their money in CC.

https://www.joshuakennon.com/how-qui...-millionaires/

Do you own any CC and is this something I should look to acquire?

Hey Hank!

Really liked that blog article about Coca-Cola - about how everybody in the area would purchase shares of the company, and then they've all been able to share in the prosperity ... guess that's sort of the hope with these investments for me as well

Guess that's the million dollar question - what shares are the best to buy, so that their value will grow over time? It's still a question am very much still struggling with, even though things have been going fine so far ...




Just went to take a look, and it looks like Coca-Cola is up 9% for the year - amazing to read how the company got started almost a hundred years ago, and see it still doing well today Warren Buffett may own some shares - guess that's a pretty big endorsement, to have his seal of approval!


Thanks so much for the kind words, and for stopping by with the great article - very cool that Coke and the Coca-Cola company come from your part of the world!

How (Im)possible Will it Be to Continue Achieving This Rate of Return?

Quote:

Originally Posted by TrustySam

Would it be possible for a recreational investor to achieve decent returns from investing in individual stocks instead of an index fund – from home using internet resources, without needing to invest a ton of time?

Warren Buffett believes that if even cats can do it, people should be able to manage

http://time.com/money/4428509/warren...esting-quotes/

Quote:

On buying individual stocks: “If you like spending six to eight hours per week working on investments, do it. If you don’t, then dollar-cost average into index funds.”

So at the beginning of the thread, was looking at the two different options for investing - guess one option would have been to go with an index fund like most of the advisors online seem to recommend, while the second option was to try Warren Buffett's approach of trying to hand-pick a bunch of stocks that looked like they might be promising?

Maybe a bit like going with a prix fixe meal vs choosing dishes a la carte?


Like guess DJIA index funds are more or less a pre-packaged bundle of 30 stocks, from a wide range of different industries? Here's how each of the 30 DJIA stocks have been doing so far this year ...

(ScreaminAsian and I were wondering a couple of months ago what was happening with defense stocks - looks like Boeing's doing amazing ... who would have guessed?? And there's Coca-Cola on the list - one of the great American company's of all time )

Guess in theory, was maybe sort of hoping with the Warren Buffett method, it might be possible to just stick with the companies that are doing super well, without having to be stuck with the companies that are currently struggling? Although in practice, guess it can be really hard to try and find those companies who stand the best chance of doing well in the near or long term future

The company that seemed like it might have have the best chance of returning a strong profit this year is actually down for the year - while the company that's done the best for me wasn't even on my radar at the beginning of the year

ULTA ytd: -16.2%
BABA ytd: 95.0%

Here's how some of the other stocks was eyeing at the beginning of the year, or have purchased at some point during the year, have wound up faring so far ...

Google (GOOG) ytd: 20.4%
Facebook (FB) ytd: 47.7%
Amazon (AMZN) ytd: 29.0%
Domino's (DPZ) ytd: 12.4%
Apple (APPL) ytd: 41.0%
Priceline (PCLN) ytd: 23.7%
Visa (V) ytd: 33.0%

Guess about half of the companies that seemed like they might do well this year have gone on to actually do well - while half that seemed like they might do well have actually gone on to struggle.

Not sure how possible it will be to predict future struggles? Guess there were warning signs with Domino's, but not sure there were too many signs with Google? And ULTA's completely fallen off a cliff - don't recall seeing any signs of that heading their way


After comparing the stocks of a DJIA index fund with my list of stocks that seemed like they may do well this year, it does seem like it might be possible to get better returns using the Warren Buffett method of trying to stick with companies that seem like they stand a good chance of doing well? Although with competition being so fierce for so many of these companies, maybe it's to be expected that a fair share of them will wind up struggling - and it won't always be possible to predict ahead of time when that might happen for them?

So maybe it'll be possible to continue to achieve higher returns than an index fund over the long-term by trying to hand-pick promising companies - but if it won't always be possible to tell who might wind up struggling over the course of the next year, then probably it won't be possible to always achieve returns as high as they are right now?


FINDINGS: Seem to be a bit of a fish on a heater right now But hopefully things are going okay, as well?

PS. Still grinding out my side hobby as well - today's was a big one!

Inc Articles


Lately, have been quite taken with @Inc! Which is a site that publishes articles on how to start and grow a small business ...


The articles seem to maybe fall into two broad categories?


A lot of articles seem to be about mental game issues - which kind of reminded me of poker, like a lot of things seem to Guess maybe something that's similar between running a business and poker, is getting in lots of spots where choices have to be made, and there's $ on the line?

Although maybe something that makes running a business very different is that there's customers to consider as well?


And then a second batch of articles seem to have more stuff about the actual nuts and bolts of running a business.

Something have learned from reading the articles, is that there are maybe two big aspects to a thriving business - innovation, and marketing?


Marketing's kind of an interesting concept - because how many times has it seemed like there's been this type of person, who's managed to find a way to get people to buy enormous amounts of junk?

Quote:

Originally Posted by TrustySam

guess have always seen entrepreneurs as people with interesting ideas for something new ... although guess people open small businesses like convenience stores that resell stuff. Guess this person is maybe somewhere in between? Something else that's maybe different is that he says he doesn't put in a lot of hours - which sounds like a different experience from what have heard about running a business? It seems like it must take a lot more work than 10 hours a week, not sure?

On the other hand, there was this Forbes article about the growth of the KIND Snacks business - and it's kind of an interesting tale about how someone started off with a good idea, and yet was still struggling with trying to compete in a very saturated market ... and it wasn't until partnering up with a venture capital firm who retooled the marketing strategy that the company really started to take off?

Marketing's funny - it seems like maybe the innovation part of business might tend to be an area where poker players might tend to feel more at home? And for people with good ideas, it seems like maybe a lot of the time they might tend to feel like the quality of the product should speak for itself? So guess it's quite interesting to hear just how much can be accomplished with marketing - or is that maybe mostly if a product isn't especially unique? Maybe innovation helps to make marketing a bit less of an imperative? But still important maybe?

Guess will have to keep reading to find out


There were quite a few articles on marketing like this one, describing all sorts of different things ...

Starting and running a business is such an amazing accomplishment - it's always seemed to me like it must take a very exceptional, very talented person to be able to grab life by the horns in that way, and be able to wear all those hats ...

And the more have been reading about starting and running a business seems to confirm that for me - that entrepreneurs are a very special, very dynamic bunch

Can't help but scroll through this thread and look at all the stuff am usually doing on any given day, like ...

• making dancing dog gifs
• napping
• giggling over something silly
• etc

... could that sort of business personality be any more out of my league?

Very fascinating though


Anyways, hope everybody has a really lovely long weekend - just have plans to do my usual, which is not much

Hey Sam , how's things?
Just wanted to say hi and join the growing chorus congratulating you on your investing achievements. Your results are pretty impressive indeed, you're a clever cookie!

And ps..please don't ever question the value of napping. I find a quality nap is the answer to many of life's woes


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

Haha! Current mood ...


Guess it's still early with the results, but thanks marke. Wasn't sure how things would go when starting the thread - so relieved to not be busto ... (yet? )


It's already started to get colder here on the other side of the world - so guess the weather should be starting to get a lot nicer in your neck of the woods? Lucky you!

Have a great weekend!!

Yup it's a great time of year. Tomorrow il be on the harbour for a predicted 28 C and then 3 days later just a few hours away in the snow again.
I enjoyed your comment in SA's blog. I would have posted after you there but I seem to only ever get chastised if I do

Have a great weekend!


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

lol!! Guess creative geniuses like SA can be a bit temperamental

It's sure nice to have the weekend here

Movie Time


Am about to head out to see Wonder Woman!

The theme of the story is supposed to be something like that even though the world may sometimes get scary, no need to worry - with a cute top and magic bracelets, everything will be okay

(That message clearly appeals to a lot of us, because this movie's been a big hit! )


Guess this long weekend's a great time to catch up on some movies - guess people haven't been going to see movies as much this Summer, so a lot of places have discount tickets now?

Have seen a bunch of stuff about it maybe being because of Netflix and Amazon ...

Or even Rotten Tomatoes ...

Cineplex has started offering that service mentioned in the first article - Wonder Woman's already available for home viewing for $22, even though it's still showing at the box office ...


Maybe prices for movies are too high? Would probably go a lot more if they were half the price all the time

More spoilers from the movie - Wonder Woman gets distracted by some cute boys on the hill, and a girl warrior comes and kicks her butt ...

Wonder Woman was really cute - she's supposed to be trying to save the world because she's got super powers. But something happens to her man, and so she loses her concentration and starts to wander around in a stupor for several minutes, sobbing, "Steve, nooo ..."



But then she pulls it together, and channels all her sadness into fighting the bad man, and everything winds up okay in the end ...

Yay!

The funniest part, was that she fixed her hair before going into battle lol - fun movie!

Fall Project – Learning More About Businesses


Guess the day-to-day of long-ish term investing doesn't require me to do too much, if anything, most of the time - maybe that's one of the reasons why this thread wound up veering off into silly land for so long? Also, am quite a silly person, so there's that ...




Anyways ... am still scrolling through headlines every once in a while, looking for ways to try and improve my investing choices. Guess one thing that's maybe supposed to help, is trying to learn more about companies? Since buying shares of a company is really like buying an itty bitty piece of them?


@Inc Articles

Those @Inc articles have been great for that - saw one that said taking on the responsibility of running a small business is very similar to parenting ... because you're always trying to learn and get better and improve, and never come to feel like you're an expert. Can't decide if that made running a business sound not quite so scary, or made it sound even more frightening?


There were also some articles on the innovation aspect of business, and it's not quite what would have thought – guess maybe it's not so much about trying to come up with something new all the time? It's a bit more customer-driven – like the innovation should fill a void and meet a need? Really love that idea of businesses creating new things to bring more fun or convenience or variety to peoples' lives – guess it's spreading happiness and driving progress, all at the same time?


The marketing stuff on the other hand feels like such a different world from math/chess/poker – guess it's more the domain of like the Eric Hollreiser types Like take this example of a statement from a PR rep for Burger King ...

Quote:

Originally Posted by TrustySam

Looks like there's a new crypto-currency about to be launched - lol!

It seems like such a silly thing to say – but does this stuff work maybe? How could that guy in the CNBC article made have made $1mil so quickly by selling junk, unless marketing works??

One of the @Inc articles featured a slightly different example of the power of marketing – guess back in the day when big cars were prized and smaller cars weren't selling that well, VW launched a successful campaign that turned compactness into an asset ... and then smaller cars supposedly became really stylish and trendy?


Am struggling to find resources on marketing that sort of speak a 'language' that feels familiar – there was one that assumed the product of the company was something innovative ... and then all the marketing stuff that followed sort seemed a bit more understandable? There was stuff like ...

• figuring out who might like the product (who potential customers are)
• figuring out why the new product is different and better, and how it solves a problem that people may have had with current choices
• building customer relationships based on trust and loyalty, through consistency

Anyways, guess that'll be my project for Fall, reading @Inc articles - there's 40 years of them, with hundreds each year!

Bitcoin


Have been eyeing Bitcoin again - was posting in the thread in the Investing section, and got a lot of helpful feedback from someone who's held some for a while, so that made it worth it to venture into that thread. Am super grateful for the help, and may try to buy some soon if the price dips below $4k?

There was someone else in the thread though, who's already addressed me *three times* (using 2 different screen names)? And never analyzes anything, he just keeps implying or stating that he can handle the swings, he's handling the swings, he's so good with the swings ... the oddest part is that he for some reason feels the need to tack a personal insult about me onto the comment. So far, he's said ...

• am weak
• am a know-it-all
• am sloppy and unprepared

It seems like maybe the last person to call me names on 2+2 was in the Timex thread about three years ago - someone called me dumb and arrogant ... and the next day he quit 2+2 and never came back

Not sure this guy will stop addressing me in posts - because it doesn't seem to me like he's handling the swings very well at all. Am expecting him to call me stupid any day now ... and then he'll probably call me evil lol ...


Swings are hard - they always are, for everybody ... just because there's no way forward but through doesn't mean they're easy to handle.

It's hard to be understanding of someone's position, when they're calling you names. Wish had been able to muster a bit more sympathy at the time - maybe the conversation may have taken a different direction ...

That coping mechanism of seeing in others certain things seems like it's maybe projection?

Like if someone feels anxious, if they can find someone they can feel is more anxious than them, then maybe they feel better about themselves?

Not sure that's the most productive way of dealing with adversity? Maybe better to seek out reassurance?

Sam, doesn't seem like your weak, a know it all or sloppy/unprepared and the poster giving you grief needs to get their **** together! Had a guy who was camping on my rental acreage tell me I'm a psycho for calling the cops on him a second time twice in two days because he keeps showing up drunk, unannounced and unwelcome.

Think I enabled his ****ty behavior for so long because I'm also alcoholic but his drunkenness manifests in more repulsive ways. Guess we can all make the best of bad situations try to make them vehicles for growth this episode makes me want to clean up my own alcoholic ass.

Really look up to your approach to life Hank, because it seemed like you may have maybe faced adversity in your past - and that's what's perhaps turned you into the compassionate person that you are now

Yeah, it's like this one person who keeps pretending to be two different people - and he tried to act normal for a bit, but then he couldn't control himself and started calling me names again Now am irrational and a troll ...

That's all he does is write lots of posts to me and call me names - not sure what he's expecting to happen in return, that would drive him to keep doing the same thing over and over and over again??


Thanks so much for taking the time to write that supportive post Hank - that was lovely

Brian Rast talking about Bitcoin is all sorts of awesome

This PAD SNG's not boring at all

Short History of Bitcoin Price Swings


Was considering buying back into the Bitcoin market - even sent a bank wire deposit to my bitcoin exchange today, so hopefully the money will be available by the end of the week?


Didn't have a chance to go back as early as 2015, although it seems like maybe the market may have changed a bit since then? Guess Bitcoin's only been around for a decade or so, so can take a look at price swings in earlier years while watching Poker After Dark tomorrow


So have only looked at the price graph for Bitcoin from 2016 to the present so far - was able to learn a couple of interesting things using the interactive timeline graph on the 99bitcoins.com site ...

https://99bitcoins.com/price-chart-history/

2016

Jan 14, 2016: $431
May 24, 2016: $449

June 20, 2016: $750 (increase of 50%) - Bitcoin mining is halved, making it more scarce (http://uk.businessinsider.com/bitcoi...lvening-2016-6)
June 23, 2016: $592 (decrease of 20%) - possibly because of Brexit? (https://www.cnbc.com/2016/06/23/bitc...n-halving.html)

Aug 3, 2016: $551
Nov 9, 2016: $726 (increase of 30%) - Trump's elected, strong US$ expected to be bad news for emerging currencies (https://www.cnbc.com/2016/12/07/bitc...rocketing.html)

Jan 3, 2017: $1020 (increase of 20%) - currency chaos in India as they take paper out of circulation (http://www.bbc.com/news/technology-38415066)

2017

Jan 12, 2017: $784 (decrease of 23%) - China crackdown (http://www.businessinsider.com/bitco...11-2017-2017-1)



As well, sometime in January it appears that Japan makes the announcement that they're going to enact regulations to provide consumer protections for Bitcoin. And the user base for Bitcoin shifts dramatically practically overnight - interest in the US soon follows ...

Here's some pie charts showing trades going from 90% in China in 2015, to a more balanced mix of China, Japan, and the US in present day ...

Mar 3, 2017: $1272 (increase of 50%) - Japan
Mar 25, 2017: $935 (decrease of 26%) - SEC rejects the Winkelvos ETF



Apr 1, 2017: $1085 – Japan declares Bitcoin legal tender
May 25, 2017: $2567 (increase of 250%)
May 27, 2017: $2083 (decrease of 20% in 2 days)

June 11, 2017: $2900 (increase of 50% from lows, increase of 16% from high)




July 16, 2017: $1933 (decrease of 33%) - China resumes withdrawals after 4 months (https://www.cnbc.com/2017/06/15/bitc...-for-june.html)

Also a new pattern of volatility is detected - my bitcoin got sold in the middle of this phase ...

Aug 1, 2017: $2787 (increase of 50%) – split into BTC, BCH
Aug 18, 2017: $4360 (increase of 180%) - rise of institutional investors (https://www.cnbc.com/2017/08/12/bitc...-fourfold.html)

SUMMARY: So there appear to be 3 core user groups of Bitcoin

1. China
2. Japan
3. US

Guess people in China have been using Bitcoin as a hedge against a devalued yuan since the beginning. But the rise in interest in Japan and the US is supposed to be relatively new - found these little bits about the rising interest in Japan and the US ...

Japan

US

Apparently people are actually going to be starting to use Bitcoin in stores in Japan - but guess people are also buying Bitcoin for investing, including highly leveraged day traders ... and any time people buy for investment purposes, guess the swings will tend to be wider as people ride the tide and try to take profits?

Maybe Bitcoin will still be a solid investment, so long as there's an ongoing trend towards increased actual usage, and greater mainstream acceptance? Although 30% swings should be expected, as investors seek to take profits? Possibly more if there's an *actual* reason for the drop, such as a regulatory crackdown?

Oh boy - keep wishing there were more time in the day, then wind up staying up too late at night ...

Then come home and ... zzz
Never seem to learn

yawn!!

Poker After Dark should be on soon - also Masterchef

More Bitcoin Stuff to Look At


Guess a lot of people believe that poker is just gambling, no different from roulette or craps. It seems like a lot of people think that about investing too, perhaps because future events are outside one's control?

To me there seem to be so many similarities between poker and investing – with both, usually try to gather as much info as possible, identify the stuff that seems to matter most, try to anticipate all the potential outcomes, prepare a response for each ... and try to learn from my mistakes. Wish my skill sets for both were better But hopefully doing something will be better than doing nothing at all, or staying out of the market altogether?

Guess Bitcoin's supposed to have very dramatic price swings, so once invested, would really like to try to avoid the temptation of pressing refresh, refresh 20 times a night to get the most up to date price – instead, would ideally like to spend the time trying to get the most up to date info on the factors potentially driving the price changes, because that's the stuff that's needed to make plans for potential price movements?


Ongoing Watchlist for Once Invested in Bitcoin

Guess my investment in Bitcoin is intended to be a bet on the fact that demand will hopefully increase over time?

So to keep track of how my bet is doing, will try to keep track of the three core demand groups, their relative proportion, and any new rises in demand from others?

1. Demand for Usage (seeking ease of use, privacy?)

• Is actual usage growing in Japan? (https://www.coindesk.com/department-...ayments-japan/)
• Other moves towards greater acceptance?
  • Increase in consumer protection reguations in other countries - eg Russia, Australia (https://www.cnbc.com/2017/08/17/bitc...c-country.html)
  • Ongoing US rejection of Bitcoin ETFs?

2. Demand for Savings (seeking security)

• Is China looking to enact any new crypto regulations?
• Is the US$ getting stronger, and making emerging market currencies worth less?
• Are any big countries having other currency issues?

  
3. Demand as an Investment (seeking profit) 

• See below for futher discussion

 

More on Demand for Bitcoin as an Investment

So there appears to be *some* evidence that Bitcoin could potentially be *part* bubble?

Everybody seems to believe that the -30% decrease in price in June/July 2017 was due to people profit-taking? And guess if demand for Bitcoin usage is growing, guess the price shouldn't be decreasing (and by that much) unless there's quite a few people only interested in Bitcoin for it's profit potential?

Wouldn't have expected that to be an issue, but guess people have purchased commodities with limited demand for investment purposes in the past - and apparently each time, demand has evolved in a very similar fashion?

The notes in the next graph are from the Prof. who came up with the theory/graph of the bubble phenomena - guess gold and silver post-crash didn't drop down to zero like in the theoretical model, because they have actual worth and demand from users as a product?

From the graphs, guess the 3 main factors to watch would be ...

1. the 1000% growth point
2. the 10 year point
3. and widespread purchase from the general public as an investment product?

It looks like Bitcoin already passed the 1000% growth point ... possibly 2 years ago? So maybe the two factors to keep an eye on might be the other two?

Ongoing Watchlist for Once Invested in Bitcoin (continued)

3. Demand as an Investment (seeking profit)

• Maybe watch out potential approval in the US of a Bitcoin ETF (possibly a double-edged sword - would greatly increase demand, but would be the type to possibly fuel a bubble, thereby increasing the chance of a crash?)
• Is actual demand for Bitcoins to use keeping up with the demand for it as an investment product?

4. Other

• Bitcoin Changes/Updates
  • Any discussion of future forks, splits, or halvings?
   
• Exchange/Brokerage Hacks
   
• Analyst recommendations?
  • The ranges don't seem to converge with nearly the same frequency as they do for many stocks - probably not very reliable?
   

One other thing - have come up with a not-very-scientific gauge will maybe try to experiment with ... will maybe watch to see if the market maybe tends to rise when hope>doubt, and falls when doubt>hope? Like if there's lots of encouraging news, but only a couple of bits of only semi-scary news, does the price keep rising?

Price targets

Buy Point

The stock market's been on fire this year - and 4Q, with the run up to the holidays, is usually the time of year when a lot of stocks rise in price the most?

So if it's possible to make like a 50% return in the stock market for the year - guess would have to achieve the same (or greater?) from an investment in Bitcoin, for it to add something that isn't achievable from just investing in Facebook?

So guess by the time my bank wire clears, if the price of Bitcoin is $5k, will need for it to rise to $7.5k in the next year for it to reach a 50% return? Wonder if that's possible?? An alternative would be to wait and hope for the price to drop down to $4k - then would *only* need for the price to rise to $6k by next year to reach a 50% return?




Guess am buying Bitcoin in the hopes that in the near future the following happens ...

• Actual usage of Bitcoin explodes in popularity in Japan
• More regulations are adopted in other countries, and greater interest in using Bitcoin to make purchases rises
• The US approves a Bitcoin ETF, and it becomes available on a major exchange

DILEMMA: So what to do - wonder if it's more likely the price will go back down to $4k, or if it's more likely the price will rise to $7.5k (wait to buy, or buy now to avoid missing even more gains)? Guess may still have a couple of days to mull things over?

Exit Point

There's always known risk factors to any investment - companies are required by law to list them in their annual report, which makes things nice and easy

Guess the ones for Bitcoin might be ...

• Japan is like the test-case for actual mainstream Bitcoin usage - so if doesn't catch on, and there's little hope of it catching on elsewhere, guess that could be fairly fatal?
• An unsustainable amount of investor demand, that far exceeds actual demand?

Guess one advantage of keeping watch on factors instead of the price graph would be that if both those things were to happen, it might be possible to sell right away and avoid a potential fall down to like $2k or whatever, if usage in Japan doesn't catch on as hoped?

So guess my sell point is factor-based rather than price-based. Although it seems like stuff is never so clear cut - like if only one of those two factors were to become an issue, then maybe it won't be so clear whether to continue to buy or hold? D'oh ...

Final Thoughts

Wish there was someone could ask for help with refining my watchlist and deciding on price points Have tried my best, so will see how it goes - hopefully the $ is in my account and ready for making a purchase by the end of the week?

Goodie Corner


Looks like 'Streamboat 2' has had to temporarily relocate because of Hurricane Irma - so Jaime, Matt, Chris, and Kevin Martin have all gone to stay at Mike Vacanti's place ... in New York City!!

Haven't had a chance to watch all of it yet - should i watch it before or after my nap?

(stayed up too late ... again )

Guess visiting new places, with new sights and sounds is always a bit of a fun adventure - should be a good vid, looking forward to it!!

The Staples bros vlog was sooo good!!

Jaime said they might not be able to go back to the Streamboat for another 4-5 days? That sucks that they have to miss WCOOP - it seemed like he was really wishing he could get back to streaming ... guess does clean-up after the storm take a couple of days, or something?

Am such a button-clicker ...

Didn't wind up going for the deposit bonus - but this seemed like too good of an opportunity to pass up? Hopefully??

Go Patriots lol!