Beginner Corner - Am Not Sure What To Do
Started the long weekend a little early
Doubt About the Choice to Sit Things Out For a Bit
After posting last night that it seemed like it might be a good idea to sit on the sidelines, kept reading more stuff ... and it seemed like with each new piece of info, would start second-guessing myself?
For example, saw something about the German market being set to open higher and noticed that gold futures were trading lower, which made it seem like the market would continue to rise today - and then placed orders to buy back into the market in the morning
Then read that the Japan market which opens before midnight EST started off mixed because everybody was feeling very apprehensive about Comey testifying before Congress next week - and then proceeded to cancel the orders to buy back into the market in the morning, and decided to go back to sitting things out
So am still feeling really unsure about whether to buy back in or sit on the sidelines - guess it sort of feels like the decision is between avoiding a potential downturn at the opportunity cost of making some gains, or taking a chance when the market seems to be much more risky than it was a couple of days ago?
Similarities Between Investing and Poker
When feeling unsure, seem to continue to find it helpful to relate this new experience of investing to what stuff was like with poker
Guess when the cards are all going the right way, it can sometimes feel like it's hard to muck things up too badly? But then when the breakeven period hits and the spots get more complicated and there's run-bad and bad beats - guess maybe it can be very helpful (and important) to put more time into studying and looking at learning materials, and break open the Jared Tendler again?
If there were a scale of emotion that went from 0-10, with the unpleasant emotions being at 0 and the pleasant ones being at 10, am probably most comfortable living in a zone of like 4-7 ... like, not so comfortable with uncomfortable stuff? Have a feeling part of me was eager to be out of the market in fair part because stuff suddenly got a lot more awkward and uncertain?
Am probably tilted - because there's not really a way to limit the exposure of a market downturn to one's portfolio besides sitting out ... and then sitting out can have it's drawbacks as well, when the market continues to move up once no longer in it, as it has after selling all of my stuff two days ago. Also, the money's real money now! Guess my portfolio's not super large - but low-mid 5 figures isn't super small either ... and it'll only continue to grow larger, knock on wood
So the stakes will just continue to grow - and so guess it'll be important to learn how to deal with the occasional tilt that will inevitably accompany being in the market?
Warren Buffett's Advice
Warren oftentimes says that it's futile to try and sell at the top and buy back at the bottom, so he likes to just stay put and not even try to time the market - because so far things have bounced back eventually?
Have found all his advice so far to be +EV
So maybe will just have to become more comfortable with the swings? So maybe that's really the best approach - which is opposite to what am doing now
Conclusion
Guess it can only help to read more - will maybe try looking at specific subjects through Google news, like 'Comey', 'impeachment'? And try to find more opinions from people in the industry like analysts to see how they see things going in the next little while?
Will try to find the optimal line - and hopefully gathering more info will help me feel more certain about with whatever that line is? And then guess will just have to get comfortable with it feeling sort of not as fun, now that the market heater may be over and has hit a patch of turbulence. Guess learning can be enjoyable in a different sort of way
Can get started with the learning tonight - was fiddling around while writing this, and won a satty to the 4:30pm SCOOP, and we can't unregister from the target ... so looks like will be playing, GL me
Last edited by TrustySam; 08-28-2017 at 09:14 PM.