This thread will explore the following question: Would it be possible for a recreational investor to achieve decent returns from investing in individual stocks instead of an index fund – from home using internet resources, without needing to invest a ton of time?


There seems to be some conflicting reports as to what may be achievable?

On the one hand - investing experts haven't always had the greatest track record ...

1. Monkeys, cats, and other random picks have routinely outperformed many experts
2. Many experts, after doing research, seem to think Amaya's a good buy

On the other hand – Warren Buffett believes that if even cats can do it, people should be able to manage

http://time.com/money/4428509/warren...esting-quotes/

Quote:

On buying individual stocks: “If you like spending six to eight hours per week working on investments, do it. If you don’t, then dollar-cost average into index funds.”

Something else that seems like it may be possible for even a recreational investor to do okay from home, is that there seem like there might be quite a few similarities between poker and investing? As in poker, it sounds like it might be possible to minimize the risks associated with uncertainty, by gathering and processing info, to help in finding the most +EV choices?

Have had good luck with investing so far, but did get lucky – so this thread will explore if it's possible with research to help improve the odds of continuing to do well with the stock market?

Hope it's okay to post my thread in this section of 2+2 - looks like a lot of people are using quieter area to reflect on what's on their minds? So that'll be nice ...



Preliminary Findings - added August 29, 2017

Investing in stocks does seem to be quite a bit like poker?

1. There's promos for recreationals - the government offers very generous tax breaks to encourage amateurs to participate, which makes buying and selling tax free
2. Have been trying to maximize EV to stick with strong starting hands, and then continue to gather info and monitor changes post-flop - have stuck with investing in quality companies that appear like they may continue to grow profits in the long-term, like Amazon and Facebook
3. Have been avoiding higher stakes play where the sharks hang out - so no day trading, options, or short-selling ... any more
4. Guess there's still risk and uncertainty though - so guess it helps to run lucky!

The Big Investment Dilemma


Guess there's three basic ways one can invest in stocks ...

1. By investing in index funds
2. By investing in mutual funds
3. By buying stocks individually

And just about every article on the internet seems to recommend the first option - of investing in a index fund that tracks one of the broad market indices, like the Dow Jones Industrial Average. So it's interesting to look at how much/little the Dow has grown over the last 15 years, when it's compared to something else like Apple stock.

Here's the graph of Apple (AAPL) and the Dow Index (^DJI) since 2001 (the blue line is Apple, and the red line that looks horizontal is the Dow Index)

The Dow Jones Industrial Average has grown by 67% over the last 15 years - but Apple's grown by 9206%. So guess $10k, invested 15 years ago ... would it be worth this much today (?)

The amount for Apple's so crazy, am afraid my spreadsheet might be wrong But if it's right, the difference is enormous.


DILEMMA: With conventional wisdom being that index funds that track the Dow are the way to go, would it be foolhardy to take a different route and buy a stock like Apple instead? Or would it be more foolhardy to stick with conventional wisdom, when there's the potential to make millions by making different investment choices?


It would be incredible if $10k invested in Apple fifteen years ago would have made someone a millionaire by now – it seems too good to be true?

A Closer Look at the Case Being Made that Picking Stocks is Junk Science - the random stock picking experiment

So experiments comparing index funds or the picks of professionals with those of monkeys, cats, and random picks made by computer have been conducted several times - with different sample sizes, and lengths of time. And the random picks have repeatedly outperformed the market ¹,²,³


There's several theories as to why this may have happened:

1. Some believe that trying to beat the market is a junk science ³
2. 2. Some have noticed that the random picks have tended to more often be small-cap stocks, which tend to outperform large-caps? ¹
3. 3. It may be possible for some, but not all, to beat the market – and to show a profit, hedge funds not only have to beat the market, they have to make enough to overcome taxes as well as the large fees that they charge. Which is a really high bar to have to clear ⁴,⁵

The third theory is interesting, because the writer talks about ability/talent - and with the rise in popularity of mutual funds, he believes demand for fund manager likely exceeded the supply of those capable of beating the market plus taxes and fees?


A LOT of articles pointed to the poor performance of the experts to conclude that the lesson to be learned from the experiments were that many mutual funds these days are probably not worth the money, and that index funds are a better way to go. Except, guess that doesn't take into account the third option of selecting and investing in individual stocks? That seemed to work out pretty well for the monkey and cat, who managd to beat the index funds?


In addition to Warren Buffett, there's at least one writer who felt like the monkey method of picking random stocks, checked twice a year, just might be the more EV way to go (see: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/how...ain-2015-06-25)


So, maybe it should be possible to make picks that outperform index funds?


So much info to pour over about investing on the internet - am trying to keep this thread free of the dopey that's usually filling my mind the other 90% of the time (the cats, knitting, recipes, Mariah Carey holiday tunes, etc ) ... will see how things go


¹ http://www.forbes.com/sites/rickferri/2012/12/20/any-monkey-can-beat-the-market/#3f177be46e8b
² https://www.ft.com/content/abd15744-9793-11e2-b7ef-00144feabdc0
³ http://www.economist.com/blogs/freeexchange/2014/06/financial-knowledge-and-investment-performance
⁴ http://www.marketwatch.com/story/almost-no-one-can-beat-the-market-2013-10-25?page=2
⁵ http://www.marketwatch.com/story/how-hedge-fund-geniuses-got-beaten-by-monkeys-again-2015-06-25
⁶ http://time.com/money/4428509/warren-buffett-investing-quotes/

Guide for Beginners


Found a really nice guide for getting started on learning more about index funds, and researching stocks, and all that:

Investopedia: Getting Started In Stocks

What's nice about the guide is that they mention all three options of buying index funds, mutual funds, and individual stocks, while many resources only seem to mention the first two? So will use this as my guide, and will next try to take a closer look at index funds

These US election results are looking pretty bad right now ...

Already sold my Exxon stock in October, and hadn't bought anything to replace it yet. So just have my Amazon stock - was planning on holding it for the long-term, but my stocks are in a tax-free RRSP, so won't have to pay any tax if it gets sold. Not sure what sort of price will be able to get for it when markets open tomorrow, but hopefully won't get caught up in too much of the drop everybody seems to be expecting? Guess can hopefully buy it back after everybody's jitters settle down ... maybe in 4 years, after someone else gets elected?

Seeing Trump on the verge of becoming President of the most powerful country in the world reminds me a tiny bit of when Rob Ford got elected - only a tiny bit because the sale is so much larger now. But guess it is what it is - guess will just have to wait and see what happens next ...

Went to bed feeling a bit sickly like the grey kitty in the photo below

Guess it was very jarring to see that the world as it really is, might be very different from how it's seemed to be? And in light of that surprise finding, there was that uncertainty of like ... did people just vote for Hitler? Is the world about to go down in flames??

Maybe it's too soon to assume too much, but guess the fact that many of us were expecting the stock market to crash, and instead it went up shows that maybe we're not on the verge of armageddon as feared At least the person that voters became passionate about is savvy, when that hasn't always been the case ... like didn't George Bush used to think that God was giving him policy advice, or something like that? And look where things wound up then - he wound up invading Iraq! Guess peoples' choice for President could have turned out a lot worse, as far as economics go. Rob Ford did quite well with economic stuff when he was in power, so maybe Trump in office will wind up being a bit like that with the economic stuff? Guess will have to wait and see about the rest ...


Anyways, life goes on - have been reading so many interesting things about investing, can't wait to be able to start posting some of them. Guess the part that takes the longest time is trying to distill all the info down into a simple couple of sentences. Would love to be able to redo the second post of this thread - probably could have been cleaned up a lot more

May try and post some more tonight

Warren Buffett's Approach to Investing in Individual Stocks


Here's some more detailed advice from Warren Buffett, that makes investing sound so much like poker!

1. Value comes from being able to accurately assess the quality of a company, and putting money into strong ones ¹ (like only putting chips into the middle when having the best hand)
2. Added value comes from capitalizing on other peoples' mistakes - stocks can go on 'sale' when people get pessimistic and sell stocks in companies that are inherently strong, thereby making the price lower than it would normally be ²,³ (pots are bigger when other people make big mistakes)
3. However there's variance due to factors outside one's control:
   1. The economic and political climate that surround a company can have as much of an impact on a company's performance as the CEO ⁴ (like a bad board run-out)
   2. And sometimes info can be incomplete or inaccurate ⁵ (bad outcomes are sometimes unavoidable)
4. So bankroll management's important for comfortably weathering heaters and downswings ⁶
5. And so is tilt management, to ensure that analysis of the fundamental quality of companies stays the primary focus ⁷

It's seeming more and more like investing in individual stocks might be a viable option – guess maybe it wouldn't hurt to take a closer look at each of the two options?



¹ http://www.businessinsider.com/the-circle-of-competence-theory-2013-12 ("What an investor needs is the ability to correctly evaluate selected businesses. Note that word "selected": You don't have to be an expert on every company, or even many. You only have to be able to evaluate companies within your circle of competence. The size of that circle is not very important; knowing its boundaries, however, is vital.")

² http://www.suredividend.com/warren-buffett-quotes/ (“The most common cause of low prices is pessimism—some times pervasive, some times specific to a company or industry. We want to do business in such an environment, not because we like pessimism but because we like the prices it produces. It’s optimism that is the enemy of the rational buyer.”)

³ http://www.suredividend.com/warren-buffett-quotes/ (“So smile when you read a headline that says ‘Investors lose as market falls.’ Edit it in your mind to ‘Disinvestors lose as market falls—but investors gain.’ Though writers often forget this truism, there is a buyer for every seller and what hurts one necessarily helps the other.”)

⁴ http://www.cheatsheet.com/money-career/warren-buffetts-15-most-memorable-quotes.html/?a=viewall (“Over the long term, the stock market news will be good. In the 20th century, the United States endured tow world wars and other traumatic and expensive military conflicts; the Depression; a dozen or so recessions and financial panics; oil shocks; a fly epidemic; and the resignation of a disgraced president. Yet the Dow rose from 66 to 11,497.”)

⁵ https://www.gobankingrates.com/personal-finance/7-investing-mistakes-warren-buffett-regrets/ (“To date, Dexter is the worst deal that I’ve made,” Buffett said according to Reuters. “But I’ll make more mistakes in the future — you can bet on that. A line from Bobby Bare’s country song explains what too often happens with acquisitions: ‘I’ve never gone to bed with an ugly woman, but I’ve sure woke up with a few.'”) <- Gosh, Warren finding himself in some spots, back in the day lol

⁶ http://www.suredividend.com/warren-buffett-quotes/ (“I’ve seen more people fail because of liquor and leverage – leverage being borrowed money. You really don’t need leverage in this world much. If you’re smart, you’re going to make a lot of money without borrowing.”)

⁷ http://www.suredividend.com/warren-buffett-quotes/ ("You need to divorce your mind from the crowd. The herd mentality causes all these IQ's to become paralyzed. I don't think investors are now acting more intelligently, despite the intelligence. Smart doesn't always equal rational. To be a successful investor you must divorce yourself from the fears and greed of the people around you, although it is almost impossible.")

⁸ http://www.dummies.com/personal-finance/investing/stock-investing-for-dummies-cheat-sheet/

⁹ http://www.investopedia.com/university/stockpicking/stockpicking3.asp

The evening news had a clip of Prime Minister Trudeau being asked today what we're going to do about the "sexist, racist, bully" that just got elected



Even funnier was his answer, "Well, we're Canadian - we work hard to get along with people, so ..."

Trump made such a big deal about NAFTA during the debates, but the US trade deficit with Canada's not that large, relative to the amount of trade that goes on? It looks like there was $280-$295 bil of trade last year, and a $15bil deficit - maybe it's Mexico that he had in mind, since the US trade deficit with Mexico last year was $58 bil, on $236-295 bil of trade?

It looks like their biggest trade deficit might be with China - because they only exported $116 bil of stuff to them, but bought $482 bil in return. Guess that's not really trade any more if the difference is so wide, and so one-sided?

Guess will see how things go with the trade re-negotiations - but it seems like the US-Canada relationship might be a lot healthier than some others. Looks like we export to them our excess oil, and they export to us all their lovely fruits and vegetables. Also more Canadians go to the US for vacation, so they make lots of Canadian $ that way too, and stuff

Hopefully we can continue to be friendly neighbours ...

Basic Intro to Index Funds


For the person who doesn't have time to spend on investments, index funds that track the Dow Jones Industrial Average (or the S&P 500) are believed by many to be the 'safest' way to get the most returns over the long-term ¹,²

As Investopedia notes:

A $10k investment made 10 years ago in an Dow Jones index fund would now be worth about $17k

More About the Dow Jones Industrial Average

The Dow was set up over a hundred years ago to show how the US economy is doing ³ - so it's one of the most-watched indices, and includes big companies from various sectors, many of which are household names ...

Therefore, buying into an index fund is the same as buying a pre-packaged bundle of 30 large-cap individual stocks. And because the primary purpose of the index is to show how US businesses are doing, the companies that make up the Dow haven't been picked to maximize the returns of the funds that track it. For example, Walmart is part of the Dow, but Amazon is not ...






Risk Level?

However, it seems super important to note is how the Dow lost 30% of it's worth in 2008, since quite a few articles on the internet had this to say about index funds:

Quote:

Zach's Research

A central advantage to index funds is that they are relatively low-risk options for investing in stocks and bonds, designed for steady, long-term growth. They are inherently diversified, representing many different sectors within an index, which protects against deep losses.

Quote:

Forbes

Building a portfolio of low-cost index funds allows you the emotional freedom to completely ignore the stock market, focus on the financial issues that actually matter, and get on with your life.

Two of the Dow's 30 companies actually wound up going bankrupt in 2008 (or close to it?) - GM and AIG. In light of that, not sure it's the case that index funds are so safe, they don't need to be monitored?


LESSON: So even with index funds, guess like with poker the gains will tend to be more long-term - while in the short-term, it's possible for the variance to be quite high?


¹ http://finance.zacks.com/primary-advantages-disadvantages-index-mutual-funds-4030.html
² http://www.forbes.com/sites/thebogleheadsview/2013/05/23/index-funds-low-fees-arent-the-only-advantage/#59514cca3f25
³ https://www.djaverages.com/?go=industrial-overview

Time to Buy


Really wish there was more time to learn more things - but tomorrow or the next day is when the Federal Reserve said they were going to raise interest rates. And last year when they raised interest rates, a lot of stocks fell about 10% soon after (in January). Not sure if the same thing will happen this year, with everybody being so optimistic about things with Trump taking office? But guess for sure prices are likely to go up when Trump cuts taxes, so maybe best to try and buy stuff before he takes office next month?


Still marveling at how Apple exploded last decade ...


Haven't seen any stocks whose prices have doubled or tripled over the past year - so it looks like that ship has sailed Was tinkering around with a compound interest calculator though, and was surprised to see this, with a litlte extra starting money, and more money added every year, this might actually be doable??

And there are actually a handful of stocks that have had price increases of 30% or more, year after year, for several years.


Have tried to collect a list of companies that seem like they might have a chance of continuing to grow. But guess competition can be pretty stiff - so maybe after a couple of years of big growth, the competition may tend to catch up with a lot of companies? Am especially worried about Domino's - because their pizza to me still doesn't look particularly appetizing ...

ULTA (ULTA) - the cosmetics superstore
Google (GOOGL) - Google!
United Health (UNH) - guess this is like a privatized OHIP ... health insurance, is it?
Northrop Grumman (NG) - defense contractor
Domino's Pizza (DPZ) - pizza delivery
Home Depot (HD) - hardware superstore
Amazon (AMZN) - online superstore

And Jeff Bezos seems to be a bit of a wildman - Amazon's earnings actually don't look that great right now, but they're expected to rise quite a bit by 2018. Also, he had that twitter war with Trump

Trump's also been critical of defense costs, so people are unsure of how that might affect defense companies like Northrop Grumman?

Visa actually only seems on track to rise in price about 20% next year - it looks like a Charlie Brown Christmas tree right now, but by September of next year it should be in better shape, since they tend to surpass expectations every quarter ... so guess they seem like more of a sure thing than some of the others that might have a chance at a higher return?


Not sure what to do ...

Learning Corner: P/E Ratio and Dividends


My book Stock Market Investing was saying that the lower the P/E the better, and the higher the dividends the better - and a lot of the Masters like to look at both. But my book also makes it sound like these are secondary considerations, and should only to be considered *after* finding solid companies that will grow over the long-term?

So the steps should maybe be ...

1. Find healthy companies whose earnings are growing steadily over time, and then the price of their stock will rise as well.
2. Only then should P/E ratio and Dividends be considered?

Examples of P/E Ratio and Dividend Yields

Guess younger companies with more room to grow may try to reinvest earnings in the company, while older companies may give some or all of the earnings back in the form of dividends? And these days, the only stocks with a low P/E and a high dividend don't seem to be growing very much any more?

Example 1. Verizon (P/E Ratio of 15, Dividend Yield of 4.5%, Average Annual Growth Rate (AARG) of 6% )

Example 2. 3M (P/E Ratio of 22.5, Dividend Yield of 2.5%, AAGR of 25%)

Example 3. Dominos (P/E Ratio of 40, Dividend Yield of 1%, AAGR of 78%)

Maybe there's companies that have had a rough couple of years that are on the verge of a turnaround that might have low P/E's with high dividends - but maybe that's too hard for a non-professional to find at home? So the only other time it'll maybe be possible to find companies with high growth potential that have low P/E's and high dividends might be during downturns of the market, like in 2008 - back then United Health had a P/E ratio of 8!

LESSON: Didn't realize all 30 companies that make up the Dow have dividends - quite a few of them have quite steady growth too, so it may be possible to have the best of both worlds, by sticking with something like United Health (average annual growth rate of ... 45%, is that right?)?

Dividends must be especially nice to have when the market takes a downturn - it must be nice to have some return to offset the losses? Also, guess if things start to actually grow, the dividends could really start to add up into something Would imagine that might be lovely to have, once the stock value starts to rise ...

Guess the big drawback to going with something like United Health is that it won't be possible to test it out as a customer - so have no idea what they might be like. They seem like they might be more likely to sustain larger returns for a longer time than Dominos, not sure?

Just remembered it's garbage day - should get that to the curb, so can come back and snuggle up in my cozy jammies


Was going to go pick up a pizza today from Domino's, but guess their pizza's different from the wood-oven kind they usually serve at restaurants, with the homemade sausage and fresh mozzarella, and stuff?

Half the price though ... maybe equally tasty, but in a different way?

Will have to see how adventurous am feeling tomorrow Going to go bring the garbage and recycling out now ...

Short List of Possible Picks


Went back to take a closer look at everything, and managed to spot a couple of things ...

Northrop Grumman - it looks like they've really only done super well the last couple of years, during Pres. Obama's second term? So maybe Donald Trump's comments about feeling like defense spending has gotten really bloated is real cause for concern, if there's been lots of years where spending's been less?

Home Depot - it looks like they *may* have had a little bit of a bubble ... that deflated a bit this year? But maybe still a bit left to go?

So have narrowed my list down to:

ULTA (ULTA)
Visa (V)
Amazon (AMZN)
Google (GOOGL)
Domino's (DPZ)
United Health (UNH)

May go back and re-read all the research reports for each - and then may try to read the actual annual reports for each as well?


My book Stock Market Investing was saying those can be helpful sometimes for more than information - because companies can vary with how frank they'll be when presenting results, with some being quite creative with spin? Was immediately reminded of Amaya when reading that - have never read any of their full earnings reports, but oftentimes their summary sheets make it sound like poker is actually growing ... and in a fairly convincing way!


Have so many things swirling around in my head - had a bunch of other things typed out, but guess going in those other directions didn't seem as helpful? So will give the annual reports a try


Be back in a bit

Annual Report: Domino's Pizza (DPZ)


What an eye-opener!


The big mystery to me was how Dominos was making so much money from selling cheap pizzas, in a pretty competitive environment - but maybe it's more accurate to describe them as being in the business of selling franchises, and charging rake?

Was reading in their annual report that they only actually own about 5% of their own stores, which they keep primarily for testing out new ideas. They make money from the other 95% of stores from:

• selling people franchise rights $$ (sold by region Internationally)
• then selling them the equipment $$ (optional, with a rakeback offer)
• and also sell them the food they need to make the pizzas $ (optional, with a rakeback offer)
• THEN take a cut of the profit $$ on top of all that!

Got reminded of Amaya again, wondering if everybody's doing all the hard work, and Domino's is taking the bulk of peoples' money? It says they charge 3-5.5% of sales, and then the franchises have to pay an extra 6% of sales for national advertising costs, so they have to pay for any local advertising out of pocket ...

Oh, and there's another parallel to poker - they were saying that it's most common for people to own 6 stores, although some own only 1, while a couple own as many as 50. It reminded me of multi-tabling?

And then guess Domino's handles the technology stuff, like the ordering system - and it sounds like they've done a good job of trying to make sure they're making it easy for people to order ...


Something interesting to hear was that a lot of the franchise owners are actually former employees - so guess they have experience, and this gives them a chance to be owners and share in the profits?


But does this sound a bit contradictory?

Quote:

In contrast to the U.S., international pizza delivery is relatively underdeveloped, with only Domino’s and two other competitors having a significant global presence. We believe that demand for pizza and pizza delivery is large and growing throughout the world, driven by international consumers’ increasing emphasis on convenience, and the proven success of our 30 years of conducting business abroad.

Our Competition

The global pizza delivery and carryout segments are highly competitive. In the U.S., we compete against regional and local companies as well as national chains Pizza Hut®, Papa John’s® and Little Caesars Pizza®. Internationally, we compete primarily with Pizza Hut®, Papa John’s® and country-specific national and local pizzerias. We generally compete on the basis of product quality, location, image, service, technology and price. Our business and those of our competitors can be affected by changes in consumer tastes, economic conditions, demographic trends and consumers’ disposable income. We compete not only for customers, but also for employees, suitable real estate sites and qualified franchisees.

Maybe they see opportunities in new areas like Cuba, but once they get there, they have to compete with Pizza Hut and Papa John's, or something?


One other thing that stood out - guess they were saying that last year's earnings were a bit lower last year because they did a share buy-back and increased dividends ...

And they said they've been opening up 1,000 new locations a year for the past 4 years, and they're hoping to do it again next year - but that there's no guarantee that they can replicate the same returns, since any number of things could change at any time ...


Can see much more clearly how they're making their money now though - maybe worth a shot?

Only wound up reading 1/5 of one report And am all exhausted from it too lol ...

Saw some disparities in earnings between the Yahoo page and my gurufocus graphs - so it looks like some of the future estimates might be off? Will have to look at those more carefully tomorrow, and try to continue reading more annual reports.

Some articles have come out predicting there won't be any drop tomorrow after the interest rates get raised, so maybe there won't be any discounts to be had after all. Although, all the tech CEOs are supposed to be meeting with Trump tomorrow, so will be interesting to see how that goes ...


Too tired to post any extra holiday cheer - night everybody ... zzz

Hey SA

Right now am feeling about as smooth as Trump Guess Obama was very smooth, so got very used to his easy breezy demeanor - remember this time he got *super frustrated* with Congress?

Gosh, things sure are going to be different by the end of the week - hopefully will be able to wipe the sweat off our brows with all the stock market $$ that'll hopefully be pouring in ... otherwise ...

Hey Horace! Those are great tips - have heard some people mention those factors, but have been reading so much stuff, everything's gotten a bit jumbled around in my head So that really helps that you list them clearly and concisely as you just did - and then tie it in to Amazon as an example

Also very nice to see some reassurance that things seem like they should go pretty well with Amazon for quite a while


Guess the world's changing quite rapidly - but hopefully 2017 will be a great year ...

How to Find Individual Stocks to Invest In – Using Online Analyst Recommendations


Guess there's maybe really 3 possible investiong options?

(1) Considered buying some Berkshire Hathaway, Warren Buffett's portfolio - was wondering what might happen to his company though, if something were to happen to him? Turns out am not the only one who's been wondering - he's 86 years old, so people on the internet have been talking It sounds like everybody feels like he *is* the company - so there's that?

(2) And then there's index fund ETFs - guess Donald Trump has promised to slash taxes across the board, and slash regulations - so everybody's expecting the market to flourish next year? Looks like the DOW and S&P 500 have had some double-digit growth years, so maybe next year will be one of those years as well?

(3) There's also online 'analyst recommendations' of individual stocks - haven't had a chance to look too closely at any of the recommendations in greater detail, but there's sites that keep track of what everybody's recommending, and here's what they're recommending for Visa:

15 out of 24 analysts are recommending Visa as a 'strong buy' today




And on average, 30 analysts are expecting Visa to grow by 20% in the next year

Two analysts are also recommending Amaya as a strong buy which makes me nervous about trusting these online recommendations. But ...

Since going public in 2008, Visa's outperformed the Dow






And there's signs that Visa might be under-priced

The stock tanked after Trump won the election - but analysts say it they should do well under a Trump Presidency. So they think people must have just been moving their money within the financial sector to banks, where they think they might be able to get an even larger return?¹,²

So the Year-to-Date graph looks like this - it's doing worse than the Dow right now ...

Wish there were more time to just sit on the sidelines and ponder stuff – but maybe sometimes the best way to learn is by jumping into the pool to get our feet wet? So decided to give investing in Visa a try. Visa's part of the Dow, and part of the S&P 500, and Warren Buffett owns some too - so, guess if were to buy some Berkshire Hathaway or a Dow or S&P ETF, would be buying a bit of Visa anyways?

Guess if everything's expected to do well next year with Trump cutting taxes and deregulating everything, it'll be hard to go wrong with any pick - so hopefully if Visa continues to underperform 'the market', it won't be by too much. Will just have to be mindful of the swings in the short-term - eek!

Will see how things go!



¹ http://finance.yahoo.com/news/buy-donald-dip-payments-stocks-202011626.html
² http://www.investors.com/news/visa-mastercard-paypal-stocks-suffer-ugly-losses-american-express-discover-fly/
³ http://time.com/money/4428509/warren-buffett-investing-quotes/

They were saying on the news that Justin Trudeau's in Cuba, and gave Fidel Castro a call and asked if he wanted to meet up - and he said he wasn't feeling well. But yesterday the President of Vietnam rang him up, and Fidel told him to come on over - it feels like 'we' just got snubbed by Fidel

So it looks like the new investment is off to a positive start today - can't help but look at Visa's graph for today, without being reminded of my own cash graphs though. Like with how every once in a while, my cash graphs can look super nice on any given day - but then after days become weeks and the big picture starts to emerge, things don't always look so hot


It's sure nice to have had the experience of dealing with swings in poker - to help keep the day-to-day variance in perspective, if 15% swings aren't uncommon for this stock?



Have been trying to read up on those huge stock market downturns that happened in 2001-2002, and 2008-2009, but my head's a bit fatigued from all the new stuff have been reading and trying to digest It's been verrry slow going tonight - may need a couple more days to read up on all the details ... may even need the weekend too, what with my head feeling all scrambled, and all


Night everybody

Goody Corner


Looks like my peanut head is still feeling fried from the overload of information have been taking in - so the continued learning will have to wait for my head to de-clutter ... d'oh!


Guess it's nice to take a break every once in a while - it gave me a chance to look at flyers tonight instead, which was fun. The free local newspaper gets delivered every Thursday night with all the flyers for the week, and it looks like today's was especially packed. Every year the holiday shopping seems to get started earlier and earlier, and this year it looks like they've decided to start 'Black Friday' a week before US Thanksgiving, instead of waiting until the day after? Maybe they figure that since it's been a whole five (six?) weeks since our Thanksgiving, that must make it okay to start getting ready for the holidays right now?

Did see a couple of things or two - looks like the 2 for $5 poinsettias are back at Home Depot again this year. Here's a pic of one from last year from my old thread ...

Such a cheap way to add something fresh and festive - and they last for weeks too, so wound up buying a bunch of them last year to give away as little gifts, and people seemed to really enjoy them?


Also saw this special promo - would be lovely to be able to get like a $50 Roots gift card to buy gifts with ... then could keep the bonus $10 Canadian Tire gift card for myself lol





It does say there's only limited quantities, so will be very disappointed if there's only about 2 per store, and they're already gone


Then saw this on the Shoppers Drug Mart website - it's a flu shot finder ... will have to try to remember to get my shot before it starts to get super cold, to avoid catching anything this Winter!

http://flushot.shoppersdrugmart.ca


Final bonus - a doggie in pajamas ... so cute!




Looks like the Head of the Federal Reserve in the US announced today that they're planning on raising interest rates soon - guess are people are maybe expecting the economy to get worse before it gets better now? Hopefully my head will be in better shape to read more about this, and other downturns of the economy, and will be able to get going with more learning by the start of next week


Hope everybody has a nice weekend!

Little follow-up of the gift certificate promo from a couple of months ago -
used the Roots one to get this gift for Mom for Mother's Day ...

... then used the bonus Canadian Tire one to get some lettuce plants for me, lol!

Not sure how well the lettuce will grow in the partly sunny spots of my garden, or if they might have to be shared with mr. bunny? Would be lovely if they're enough to make salads all summer long, but guess will have to wait and see how things go ...

Just made a chicken sandwich with lettuce and tomato, and some roasted root vegetable chips for dinner, and then played some mediocre poker tonight

Had a whole extra thing was going to post, but meh it's not that interesting

Night everybody

Went back to looking at headlines again tonight - so many Donald Trump scandals every day, every day


Was hardly seeing any business stuff, so got bored and started looking at pet pics, eg.

(so cute! )

Then finally found something - guess nobody knows what'll happen in the future for sure ... but this hedge fund manager mentioned a possibility that doesn't seem to get a lot of mention, so that was kind of interesting? He was saying that the market seems like it should be okay for the next couple of years, with Trump's tax cuts - but he believes rising debt levels are troublesome, so maybe the market could just start to go flat for a prolonged period of time rather than drop all at once? Maybe he had retail in mind, with malls not doing so great these days?

Also saw that the National Geographic Travel Photographer contest is back for 2017 - for anyone who's interested in looking at photos that are actually interesting to see

http://travel.nationalgeographic.com...17/all-entries

Guess the neighborhood Canadiana may not be the most exotic vegetation - but it's been lovely to have the warm weather back, and leaves on the trees

May try to finish up the photo lessons by the end of the week - will be going to California at the beginning of next month, so it might be nice to get some tips on how to better take photos of palm trees!

Pet pictures are definitely more interesting than Trump.

I wondered with your pictures, if you tried to make series. Something like 10 different from the same tree, like vary the close-up, angle, position of a tree in a picture.... And then to see at home which one is the most interesting.
Canada has in parts absolutely stunning nature. If you are near it must be similar, where you are.


And you have often really cool food. I am basically every time inspired to repeat, like this sandwich with veg chips.