The water is just warming up, Sam...

Hey HUMBLE.!!


Congrats on your Ethereum doing so well - it looks like it may have even done better than bitcoin the last little while?

Was seeing so many tech deals on Black Friday, but most of them seemed to be in the US - did you manage to find any bargains?


Ya sold my bitcoin a couple of days ago - which has been an interesting experience. It definitely made the profits seem much more real - people have been astounded to hear was able to make $38k in under 2 months!

Really hope there's still some room left for bitcoin to grow - have been looking for ways to try and minimize a bit of the risk, and have been able to find a couple that may hopefully work?

So yeah, may be buying back into the market again very soon, with a couple of extra safeguards added - would be lovely to see the price rise up to $12k or $13k before the holidays ... ho ho ho!!

GL to all of us with our holdings!!

Bitcoin Bankroll Management


Weighing the risk of a bubble burst against the risk of missing out on gains

Guess prices of commodities need a reason to rise or fall - maybe increased awareness and hope of turning a profit may tend to cause the price of bitcoin to rise? And here's a list that someone came up with of some of the things that may cause the price of bitcoin to fall?

Wonder what other people feel the chances of a crash happening soon might be? Maybe 10-15%? So maybe 85%-90% likely to rise?

Was going to maybe put $10k back into bitcoin - that would leave $28k of actual profits, and $10k of paper profits with the potential to make more. But then started to wonder if maybe bitcoin is more likely to grow in the near future, would it be better to risk a little more?

Amount to re-invest into bitcoin?

Kind of a neat thing about a stop loss - if were to put in $20k and use a stop-loss, could set it so the most am able to lose is $10k ... then guess would be able to make money off of $20k instead of just $10k?

Here would be option 1

• invest $10k @ CAD$14k/bitcoin
• no stop loss
• if price drops down to $7.5k, loss = $4.3k

And this would be option 2?

• invest $20k @ CAD$14k/bitcoin
• set stop-loss @ CAD$11k/bitcoin
• maximum loss = $4.3k

Does option 2 seem like it should be okay? Not too reckless?

Leaving my coins on the exchange

Hopefully the odds of a hack into a major exchange aren't super high? That would bring my maximum loss up to 100%, doh!

Was maybe going to try spreading my coins around to more than one exchange - so if one does wind up getting hacked, hopefully the chances of more than one getting hacked are much lower?

Only know 3 exchanges, the 2 in Canada and is Bitfinex in the US? So will have to find a 4th ...

• QuadrigaCX
• Kraken
• Bitfinex
• ?

Am okay with losing $5k - that would still leave me with $33k in profits! Hopefully by keeping $20k in bitcoin, will be able to make even more than the $38k have now?

Still haven't heard back from my exchange about cancelling or setting aside part of my withdrawal - hopefully the price of bitcoin goes up ... but not until am able to buy back into the market!


Does this seem like a decent plan?

Nothing wrong with keeping a large portion of your profits. Bitcoin is extremely volatile.

Good idea on setting your stop loss.

You know what, had set aside around $2.5k when requesting a withdrawl from my exchange - and then actually bought back some bitcoin last night, after noticing that the price was starting to rise ... it looks like had $2519.86 total left in my account?

So was back into bitcoin to experience today's volatility - what a strange drop there around 5:30pm today Wonder if maybe those big drops are someone selling big amounts every time the price hits a new high?

Did that review of past price swings for the last couple of years, and it seemed like most of bitcoin's big movements have been caused by events? Like the announcement of a fork, the cancellation of a fork, a crackdown in China, an expansion from Wall Street, etc. So maybe profit-taking may be something of a newer trend? Especially since the price has gone up so fast - maybe there's quite a few of us wanting to rebalance our rolls, and pocket a little profit along the way?

Am relieved to see a fast recovery happen again like it did the last time there was a drop a couple of days ago - the technical analyst on youtube was saying the recoveries show a lot of strength, like there's no shortage of people looking to buy up more when the price goes low. So even if people are starting to sell some of their bitcoin, hopefully it's true that there's more who are still looking to buy - maybe some people are even using limit orders to buy during dips?


Wonder if this may become the new normal for bitcoin, with the price continuing to hit new all-time highs, only for there to be sharp drops of over $1k - with fairly fast recoveries? Unless the price stays around $12k for a while?


Am not sure what price to set my stop-loss at - wanted to set it high so will not lose too much money if the price drops a lot really fast ... but maybe not so high that it sells low, only for the price to go right back up? doh'! Wonder if US$9.6k might be okay? Or too high?? US$8.6k??


Bitcoin may be the new poker - a hard way to make easy money

GL to all of us with our crypto!!

My profits aren't so large anymore, on ~$2.5k ...

Still, already managed to make enough today enough to possibly buy an appraised piece of art!

Is it just me, or does the hut look a little ... 'off'? Well, will have to see what other pieces of art will be able to afford, once more of my money is freed up by my exchange and can buy back in with a little more


Was hoping to pick up a pretty piece of affordable art at some point, so would have something lovely to enjoy - it's not so nice out in my neck of the woods at this time of year ...

It was nice to hop off the bitcoin train for a couple of days - finally managed to set up my Roku stick, and was able to watch Paul Blart Mall Cop 2 Also treated myself to the new Tim Ferriss book called Tribe of Mentors - Fedor's in it, and so is Vitalik Buterin ... he likes cats, who knew??

Will have to go back to my daily bitcoin reading in earnest tomorrow. The number of articles seems to have exploded, so was only able to skim over stuff quickly today - the preview of this one started off so brilliant, and then went downhill very quickly ... hopefully didn't wind up missing any that didn't sound very interesting that got much better later down the page?

Will oftentimes try (?) to make the effort to walk a mile in others' shoes? Since everybody grows up with a different set of skills, opinions, and experiences - it seems like it can oftentimes be a chance to see the world with fresh eyes, and learn new things? Although guess oftentimes it can be hard to feel motivated to try and see the potential benefits of something new and different, when something's outside one's comfort zone - have struggled with that at times ... like with my hobby of trying out something new for 30 days ... didn't it take me something like 3 years between attempts at trying new things??

Here's a Venn diagram of some different life experiences ...

So have never made the effort to try to spend time on a farm However, did decide to try to give technical analysis a try, even though have been saying for a while that it only seems to be about 51% reliable? Maybe because it doesn't cost anything to learn - and there's a chance it could help provide an 1% edge?


So may post some technical analysis practice graphs throughout the night, while Great American Baking Show and SWAT are on - will see how helpful it is in predicting future price movements!

Technical Analysis - Practice Graph





The 'double top' was supposed to be a sign of a potential downturn - instead the price is continuing to rise

Hopefully that's a sign that demand is still very strong?


The two signals from the RSI indicator - the bearish divergence, and the high RSI both led to temporary downturns. So today the RSI seems to be quite reliable in predicting when the price will move up or down?

CONCLUSION?: It seems in the short-term like the market may want to continue to move up, any time the RSI will let it?

Closer Look at the Double Top


In normal times, apparently a 'double top' was supposed to signal a drop in demand, enough to lower the price to around $16,320 - instead the price rose to $16,800!

UPDATE: RSI hitting 80 again - perhaps mild temporary price resistance at ~$17,100, until it drops?

There's a double bottom forming, with a low RSI - will see if the price that's now at $16,500 will move back up above $17k?

Anybody else hooked to watching the graph move up and down? Have quite a bit invested in bitcoin ... hard to concentrate on much else ...

Looks like was supposed to look at volume when a 'double top' or 'double bottom' happen - it says there's supposed to be an increase in volume on the second bottom, to ensure enough demand for a full recovery?

Looks like there may be some possible temporary mild 'bullish exhaustion'? What time does everybody in Asia wake up and decide today's the day to buy more bitcoin? Hopefully soon!

This latest turn of events is outside my skill set - it looks like the volumes may not be showing enough demand for a quick recovery ... as in like a recovery in 30 minutes.

Maybe by tomorrow though, who knows?

Bitcoin's turning me into a bit of a nervous wreck - am kind of afraid to go to sleep Need to find myself a boyfriend who will stay up late to watch my bitcoin, so can get my rest

That little correction was unexpected and felt quite scary! Something reassuring - the lows haven't gone lower than the previous lows ...

That's supposed to be the sign of normal variance? So only if the price drops lower than $15.2k the next time will that maybe signal a true change in direction, is that right? Guess that's how people set their stop-losses? Maybe $14.3k just to be sure?

Well - as someone pointed out in the bitcoin thread, the technical analyst at CoinDesk made a future price prediction that was too low, and the price wound up going much higher much more quickly.

Maybe under usual circumstances, price graphs tend to move up at a steady rate, rather than exponentially?

So if demand for bitcoin holds steady, guess we're supposed to see price increases and pull-backs in-between these two lines? Maybe all the better if the price shoots up past the expected rate of rise?

SUMMARY: Things that may signal a shift - a rise or fall outside the current range of 'normal', for bitcoin?

Being out of the market was no better either - wish bitcoin would just hurry up and get to it's peak so we can all be millionaires and relax

Sigh ...

Gosh, wish had been doing this technical analysis for more than a couple of weeks

Can't be sure, but if the price drops below $15k, that may signal the start of a new trend - and more people might start selling off? But am not sure??

My stop-loss kicked in - can't withdraw my funds from my exchange for another week though, so guess there's always a chance may buy back in again, if things look good?

Am still watching the market - looks like there was just a big spurt of buys that took the price from $14k to $15k?

Will keep watch to see if it can spark a rally, but so far the downturn looks to have quite a bit of momentum? (sample size of 2 weeks worth of experience ) With the more people looking to sell than buy?

Well, so the RSI (the strength index) went above 70 for the first time since things took a turn a couple of hours ago - so that's encouraging.

Although the volume still looks like it might be light? So some good news, and some that looks not as promising.


NEW DIRECTION: Uncertain? Maybe holding pattern, for now?

Well, should get to bed - am disappointed at the way my bitcoin experience ended up wrapping up. Did wind up in the plus - and did manage to get lucky to be at the right time at the right place for the BCH pump and dump, so maybe it wasn't meant to be for me to have the chance at a second bite at the apple.

Will have to give some thought to if may have jumped the gun too soon on too little info when bitcoin hit $10k. Then again, there was someone in the bitcoin thread who said he was recommending bitcoin to relatives at that level, and really wasn't sure if it would continue to rise or it would tank. So maybe it was the right time for me to get out? If had been more experienced, maybe would have known to use a stop-loss instead, and maybe could have used technical analysis to see where things may have been headed?

Am glad to have gotten my money back today, and am glad to have given things a second shot, even though things wound up taking a turn. Was willing to take a risk and have it not work out - something have learned from reading Tim Ferriss' books is that it's much better to try and fail, and pick yourself up again and try again, rather than let fear hold you back?

So some success, and some fails with my bitcoin experience - and the fails are always a bit hard. Have learned things that will help me with my investing moving forward though, so maybe that'll wind up being the biggest payout of all?


Guess there's always a chance may pop back into bitcoin Will definitely keep that option open


Am really really wishing for the best for everybody - every person's different, with their risk tolerance, and amount they're willing to risk. Have faith that everybody's doing what's right for them, and however things turn out for us all - awesome, or just great - am sure people know where it is they want to go

Night everybody.

Am still up - these wild swings really aren't for me ... get so depressed and fatalistic when bitcoin hits a downturn.

That being said, bought back in a half hour ago, and the price has already gone up a thousand

Don't even care about money all that much - when was trying my hardest to figure out what to spend a windfall on, all i wanted to do with it was donate it to charity and save.

This seems like a once in a lifetime opportunity though - and still +EV hopefully?

Have already given notice at work, and will be starting at my family business in the new year, and have a bunch of holiday time saved up. So maybe worth it to take tomorrow off, and watch bitcoin? It's helping with my investing. Maybe should have taken a chance and made my stop-loss a little smaller, not sure?

Some bearish divergence - there may be a mild temporary downturn in price incoming ...

Hmm, looks like this word does not mean what i thought it meant?

Meant to say ... pessimistic? something-else-istic?

looks like depressed and fatalistic and pessimistic are all synonyms - so it was redundant.

did not see that coming

dejected?

Some fresh technical analysis articles have come out. Lots of mixed signs it seems? Am still reading them - then will have to get some sleep ... am exhausted ...


1. Forex Live - http://www.forexlive.com/technical-a...ar-ma-20171208

Says the correction may have been because the price was trading above the moving average (parabolic). But that the market's been showing signs of being overbought for ages, and it still keeps moving up. So, really who's to say that a correction is for sure in store again anytime soon?

2. News BTC - http://www.newsbtc.com/2017/12/08/bi...ng-small-dips/

The analyst sees dips, and warns that the signs clearly point to the market being overbought - but yet it keeps rising.

The analyst also warns that the higher the price rises, the greater the opportunities for people to profit-take, and the greater the increase of a greater crash happening?

Something different that this analyst does is add current events to the analysis - so they pointed out that with the futures exchanges set to open up, and all the hype in the news, with nothing new on the horizon that would seem to tend to cause the price to fall, those might tend to point to a continued rise in price?

So another analysis that's maybe unsure?

EDIT - oh, looks like there were just two. Very mixed bag - the rises are so intoxicating, but the falls can be so painful. Can see what the second analyst was saying, about the higher the rise in price, the greater the risk of larger crashes.

Volume's super low - if can sell at a small profit, will maybe do that and go to sleep.

Will try to wait for a stronger sign of a rally to give bitcoin another chance. Will see how things look tomorrow - will try to be up by 8am? 9am??