So the freeroll: Playing at the Flamingo for 13 hours within a week qualifies you. The prize pool is $10,000. 1st through 20th places get $350 each and 21st through 40th get $150 each. Today there were 72 runners, so the EV per runner was $138 each. Given my 2 hour per tourney estimate, that makes for a $69/hour EV. That figure makes it worth breaking my 'no tourneys during the work week' rule. Harrahs runs the exact same promo, so I think I'll be locking up 26 hours/week at the two sites for a while, given the risk/reward ratio of the promo freerolls here in the earlygoing.
It's not completely free. There's a $5 cover charge, which I interpret as a nuisance fee designed to get you to show up once you've signed up, as you can sign up any time during the week once you have your 13 hours in.
Given the way a lot of people think, the prospect of losing the $5 that they've plunked down is probably more of an incentive to show up than the prospect of losing almost $70/hr in EV. Today, 3 runners who put in the 13 hours and the $5 were still no-shows.
I went out in 51st and got bupkis. The hand I busted on might be of some interest. Blind levels were 15 minutes and almost everyone was short stacked within the first 90 minutes.
UTG open shoved with 4bbs, MP had 10 or so bbs and reshoved. I had 5bbs on the button and 8
8
. I tossed my stack in without giving it much thought.
NARRATOR: He was wrong.
UTG had A6o, so we're going to give him the proper wide shoving range. MP's spot was a bit more problematic. Runners were dropping off quick and the bubble was coming up on a very shallow two-tier payout scenario--almost an all-or-nothing, satellite type payout scheme.
This rewards nittyness for anyone with a larger (relative to the average) stack. So we're going to give MP a much tighter range on the reshove.
I was risking 5bbs to pick up 15.5bbs--and that's the problem--there were no antes. At 600/1200 blinds, my head was geared for antes. Without them, I needed 32% equity.
Now, let's add 10% antes for 8 players, where I'd be risking 5bbs to make 16.3bb. That would require 30.6% equity. Still marginally bad but closer.
Obviously, I can't run equilab simulations in my head, but I can check on my guesswork later to see if I'm terribly off. After playing so many tourneys over the years, I'm usually within a few percent; so I have that going for me, which is nice.
Let's look at pocket 9s in this spot.
Surprisingly not that much better, but fine if they were running antes, which they weren't
There was one other hand, in the cash game towards the end of the day, that was not of particular interest, other than for the amount of real money that went into it. I had built up a very nice stack at Harrahs, thanks to a bluffing donor with bad card sense and terrible timing, but I subsequently punted it off from the button vs a good reg in the sb--in an $1100 pot all in preflop, AK < QQ.
Both of us thought the other one was trying to get in the last bet, and that's how we got up to six, with me putting in the last of them. Nice hand sir.
Flamingo $5 entry, Bally's, Harrah's: 8 hours:
(-$179)
Last edited by suitedjustice; 07-21-2018 at 02:10 AM.