Thanks Obama x2

Arigato Obama-sama.

At 2 pm today every table at Red Rock casino was filled and the $1/$2 waiting list was close to an hour. After I got on, my initial read was that the table was tougher than it should have been, and I thought about a transfer, but then I found a few spots where some EV could be made and I decided to stay.

Just after that decision I pick up T9 in MP1. UTG limps, UTG+1 limps along and so do I. Normally that's a raise from me but I don't know the table well enough yet and in this case I prefer to be in later position for a raise with this holding, as some of the regs are still to my left, and they could be the big 3-betting types for all that I know.

7 ways to the flop.

(Pot $14) - 7 Players

Flop: JJQ

Checks to me. I bet $10 and get one call from the BTN. He has about $150 left after the call and I cover.

(Pot $34) - Heads Up

Turn: 4

Nice card. I bet $20 and BTN calls.

(Pot $74) - Heads Up

River: Q

BTN has a beer in front of him and I don't. Out of the corner of my eye I catch a quick grimace from him when the Q hits the river. It's just a micro-expression that I never would have caught if I had been drinking. And if I hadn't caught that, my choices would have been to either check/fold or to bomb the pot and fold sheepishly when he shoved on me. But now that I caught the tell I slice out a quick and cheap $30 and he folds.

It turned out that 3 of the players at the table were $2/5 regs waiting for a new table to open for them. They left after an hour and our table got better. Still, I ran into a few semi-bluff spots that didn't work out as well as the above hand, and on the last orbit of the session I was down a bit and had $235 in my stack. I usually buy in with $300 and top up a $100 at a time.

Last Orbit: UTG+1, a standard $1/$2 player, opens $10 and I raise to $35 with AK in the CO. UTG+1 makes it $105 to go and I shove for $235. He has me covered. So here we go, a few posts back I talked about how I shouldn't be afraid to put my rack into play on the last orbit, and here I'm doing it in the very next session.

Now for the justification: When I have 120bb or less I don't mind getting it in with AKs, even after a 4-bet from someone in EP. First of all, not all $1/$2 players are positionally aware. Some of them open what they open no matter where they are. Secondly, I block AA and KK; they now total 6 combos instead of 12. I'm holding my own against QQ, and there are still 9 combos of AK out there for the push, or for the flush draw advantage for me vs AKo.

Being up against QQ-AA, AK adds up to 42% equity, and that's exactly what I had when I shoved. Now, isn't there a chance that I could induce a mistake from a meh $1/$2 player? Hell yes. He could have been mucking around with AQs or AJs and will now have to either fold out his equity in a $210 pot, or he'll have to call and be dominated in a $470 pot. Also, my image is tight, so there is a non-zero chance that he'll make a nitty fold with QQ or AK--I've played this game enough to know that a few of these guys always count a 5-bet shove from a tight player as KK-AA.

The only way I can get him to either make a mistake or to compound a mistake is to shove it. All of the above mistake scenarios are small percentages on their own, but I wouldn't be surprised if together they added up to around 8% of added equity, which in a $470 pot adds up to around $37 in EV. Or I could be a nit and fold my $35 3-bet? Pssh.



Red Rock Casino: 4 hours:
(-$300)

I've been following your thread since the beginning as I like to see if people who take their shot at Vegas can make it or not. I've been grinding the 1-2/1-3 games for almost four years here and have won at a top tier win rate.

That said, I've been trying to figure out why you have struggled here. The bar is low to grind out $10-$15/hr. I'm pretty sure I have not played with you since you played in the Caesars freeroll properties and I avoid them so the only way I can try to understand your game is with hand histories and these two you've posted explain a lot.

Hand 1 T9 suited - If your normal line is to raise two limpers from middle position with this hand, I think that's a huge leak. Overlimping I think is best by far. It keeps the pot small and allows you to call a raise perhaps while keeping a lot of money behind. If you instead had raised, now a three bet really sucks as you are probably now not getting the right price to call.

So it goes a 7 way limped pot to the flop. Why on earth are you betting this flop? It's a paired board which severely weakens your bad open ended straight draw. Did I mention it went SEVEN WAYS to the flop? I'm done with this draw honestly and not putting in another chip. You have so many things going against you. Seven way action, limped pot so ranges are wide and the pot is small, paired board so your implied odds are lower and reverse implied odds since you could easily put money in dead.

Ok so you decide to take a stab at it on the flop. Fine, I can maybe get behind it if the table is playing fit or fold and no one will put pressure on you with top pair or a draw. Once you get a caller, why are you barrelling the turn? Who cares if you picked up equity? It was seven way action and someone called you on QJJ rainbow in position. This is a clear check evaluate on the turn and it's not even close. In fact, any reasonable bet from the button and it's a check fold.

Now the river, you say you picked up a live tell. Was it a general live tell that truly shows disgust and lead to a fold? Who knows. Honestly I think the guy made a nit fold with a J, even though people usually don't fold full houses and you got lucky. The grimace was thinking you got there with a Q cause what else could you have triple barrelling? Oh the ten high missed straight draw.

Hand 2 AK suited - This is probably one of the big reasons for your struggles in Vegas 1-2. A standard 1-2 player opens to $10 UTG+1. Since you are in the CO, I don't mind three betting AK suited. If I was in earlier position, I wouldn't mind flatting with it as well.

Now this as you put it standard 1-2 player in UTG+1 four bets it to $105 and you are ok with five bet jamming $235??? I would hardly call it nitty folding AK after three betting to $35 and facing a four bet to $105 and in practice, a shove for $235 since there are zero flops you are folding for $130 more.

Your standard 1-2 player who is opening UTG+1 has zero combos of AJs in his four bet range and maybe one combo of AQs AT BEST.

Then you try to defend it by saying well even up against a range of QQ+, I have 42% equity so I can call. That's best case scenario!!! There are lots of standard 1-2 players that won't four bet QQ. So now you have to remove at least half of the QQ combos. Now what's your equity?

It sucks but this is an easy fold facing a four bet from a standard 1-2 player in any position so whether or not a player is positionally aware is moot.

What these two hands and your thought processes behind them, show me is that you are far away from ABC solid poker fundamentals and that's why you are losing at 1-2 nl in Vegas.

Hand 1 from an ABC player - Multi-way limped pot on a paired board, I'm not chasing my draw. Fold.

Hand 2 from an ABC player - I'm facing a four bet from a non maniac, I'm folding everything but AA/KK.

Sure ABC players aren't going to be top tier crushers but they will grind out low variance wins consistently.

I appreciate the excellent analysis and feedback, URMeowed. I post the hands because I want to talk about them, so let's talk.

I overlimped in this spot for the reasons that you posted.


You cannot check/fold all of your marginal to medium draws, even multiway. You have to bet/fold some of them and lay claim to some pots. I only have to win the pot around 15% of the time to be +EV. If I had a better draw or if the board was better, I'd be more likely to check/call to avoid being blown off my equity by a raise. Facing a raise with this hand on this board, I'll be happy to fold.

The caller isn't automatically granted a nuttish hand when calling a $10 stab in position in a large field limped pot. It's true that the overall calling range of a big field is narrowed, but the individual caller could be a fish who wants to see another card cheap with any piece.

I care that I picked up equity. It's one of the more important criteria for a double barrel, and now if I hit on the river (1) I won't have to make very big bet proportionate to the pot to make good money off trips or top pair, because of the money that already went in on the turn and (2) a third flush card might kill the action on the river, getting me a fold from TP when I don't want it, but at least I got money in on the turn.

Putting him on a QJ only is way too nitty. There are 6 combos of that vs 12 combos of KT that will often bet when checked to on the turn, and we're going to fold to that, when we're holding blockers? Yes, there are also a fair amount of Jx combos, but I can still beat that with a lot of river cards.

I knew. It was one of the most obvious tells that I've ever seen. The fact that it happened quickly and went away almost instantly made it more likely that it wasn't a fake tell.

You're giving him too much credit. I don't think he's folding a boat to a $30 less-than-half-pot bet. These guys don't understand relative hand strength when they're holding a full house.

Okay stop. Standard $1/$2 players make a ton of mistakes in 3-bet pots. Sometimes they fold too much, sometimes they call too much, and sometimes they spazz too much. Don't tell me that you've never seen a standard $1/$2 player spazz with 99 or QJs. How many 4-bet pots do you see, in fact? Not many, so just a few instances of this spazzing, therefore, add up to a significant single digit percentage of 4-bet hands, which is certainly enough to turn my 42% equity into the +EV zone, rather than folding out all of my equity with a premium hand.

If I'd had $30 more in my stack, it would have been a fold, but I had what I had and I think it was a +EV play. And finally, never underestimate fold equity, even if it's only a percent or two, you throw it on the scale with the rest of it

I both know and appreciate that the rules on this site are strict against spamming your own books and whatnot, so I'll try to tread lightly.

I have a story published in Oh, No, Not Again: The 2019 Fark Fiction Anthology, which has just come out in electronic and paperback form. It's called Open Container, and it's published under my Fark s/n Garza and the Supermutants. I won't post the link here.

Some of you would recognize the story as being The Trial from the Nit-tastic Tales thread. Other than having undergone a title change and a professional editing pass, it's the same story only a bit more sleek, so there's no compelling reason to go out and buy it.

I'll get it because it's my first published story and I'm pretty psyched about that.

Congratulations, I like this life achievement unlock

, I’ll post when I get this look forward to reading these stories.

Have you had a chance to read other stories? Do any stand out?

Well, I was going to wait until I was completely up to date to comment here since I just found this thread, have been reading it for two days now, and am thrilled that it is still going (I checked). You are a great writer who addresses some topics many of us think about, but never publicly vocalize, and there is poker. I hope it lasts a long time and now I am subbed.

But, I just gotta say something about Wayne Newton and I tell my Newton story every chance I get. I am older than you and am a late 60s music guy who had a draft card for Vietnam. We hated music like Wayne Newton. By an ironic twist of fate, I ended up in Iraq in 2004-2005. Wayne Newton came with his USO show and I thought, "what the ****, who wants to see Wayne Newton?"

It was incredible. In true Bob Hope variety show style, it blew everyone away. Something for everyone, he is the true definition of an entertainer. Everyone loved it and the audience was young and very diverse. Didn't matter who they were, they liked his show and appreciated that he was willing to go to a place hotter than Vegas in the summer and much more dangerous to give us a show. If you ever see him, thank him for me. Out of three shows when I was there, his was by far the best and widest ranging as far as "something for everyone." The other two were 50 Cent and Charlie Daniels Band. All were appreciated by the troops whether or not they were fans of the particular music.

Anyway, looking very forward to your continuing story. Loved the Jack Torrance tweets, too.

So far I've only read my own story on the Kindle version. I'm still an old-school dead tree guy, so I'm going to wait for the physical version to come in and probably drag it around in my backpack for a few weeks. I plan on ordering the paper book after Christmas, when the porch piracy figures should hypothetically go down.

Thank you for the kind words, carolinabay! Thanks for the story about Wayne in Iraq. What a magnificent dude. Were you a contractor in Iraq? You must've been around my age when you were there.

I was an old Dio/Black Sabbath/Metallica kid and then I loved the industrial and grunge stuff as a young adult. Wayne Newton was cool in a kitschy ironic way for about 5 minutes in the early 90's, when my musical sensibilities were formed, but when 2p2er Gambelina visited town she took me to see him and I was converted within like 3 minutes. The man is a master entertainer and it's an honor to see him at work.

It’s in my cart.

First off, let's address the downswing: it's about 10-12 buyins, which is bad but not catastrophic. What makes it seem worse is that I've only played around 10 hours a week for the last few months. That's not professional play by any standard; it's an extended unpaid vacation with some poker thrown in. It's Nic Cage's Leaving Las Vegas Light for the sensible, nitty alcoholic.

What would have been a bad two or three weeks if I was playing full time turned into months and months, which seems all the more psychologically damaging for its being dragged out. The cure for this is what it's always been: play sober, set hourly goals for the week and meet them. In short, act like a professional. I need to put in 30 hours Wednesday to Sunday and I'm going to try for it--starting tomorrow, of course, always starting tomorrow.

Oh no, here we go again.

The last 4 times I've flopped top set I've been outdrawn and raised on the river every time. This is not a whine; this is a prelude to a hand.

Yesterday saw another good game at the Golden Nugget. The place is starting to grow on me. Villain is the BB and is a classic calling station, the likes of whom are rarely seen nowadays, even at the $1/$2 tables. I had been at the table for 3 hours and I noticed that he was limping close to 90% and limp/calling or cold calling at least 50%.

MP limps, I make it $10 on the CU with KK, a little cheaper than usual to try to entice BB into calling, as I've noticed that he is somewhat elastic with bet sizing (i.e. more likely to fold to bigger bets). BB calls and MP calls. I have around $400 left and BB covers me.

Here's what BBs cold calling range might look like. Lots of queens, lots of 8s and lots of 4s.



(Pot $31) - 3 Players

Flop: Q84

Checks to me, I bet $15, BB calls, MP folds. Again with the smaller sizing. It's true that I'm giving his many flush draws a good price, but I also want calls with any 8, any 4, every pocket pair in between and any gutshot.

(Pot $61) - Heads up.

Turn: T

Sheeit. BB checks, I bet $25 and BB calls. I have a redraw to the second nut flush. Still, I want to keep it small and keep his pair and single spade holdings in.

(Pot $111) - Heads up.

River: K

BB checks, I bet $35 and BB raises to $100.

(Pot $246) - Heads up.

I bet small because another straight came in on the river to snap off my brand new top set: AJx or AxJ. Why would he call these on the flop? Why wouldn't he? They're good looking hands with backdoor flush and straight potential and he's a huge station.

One important thing about classic stations is that they cease to be stations from the moment they put in a raise. Once they raise they are denizens of Valuetown. To paraphrase Ed Miller, FOLD FOLD FOLD everything but a monster. But is top set a monster on this board? In my last hand review post, I picked on certain players for not knowing relative hand strength when they have a boat, and here I don't even have a boat.

I bet small because I was snakebit (see the prelude) and ready to fold to a shove. But this isn't a shove. This is a pretty small raise relative to the pot size. But to him, it's a hundo (weeeeeeeeeeee), which is a big bet. What does Ed Miller say when a station puts in what he thinks is a big bet on a late street? FOLD. HE HAS IT.

But what, my friends, is it?

Here's where we get into a very special thing about stations. On certain hands, when they hit two pair, they win a lot of money off of bad TAGs who can't bet/fold TPTK on the river, who instead insist on calling and being shown K2o for two pair. I've been that bad TAG.

So here's his range strength distribution on the river.



Ignore the light red bars and the numbers in parentheses, they're a cumulative tally and misleading. The dark red bars and the combos to the left of them tell the story. Notice that he has a lot of flushes and straights, 60 combos total that beat my top set.

But he has 12 worse sets and 39 two pair combos for 51 total that I beat.

I only need to call $65 to win $311, that's 21% equity needed. If he only raises with his sets or better, that's 12/72 combos that I'm beating, giving me 17% equity. I just need him to be raising with a few of his 2 pair hands to make it a +EV call, one that I'll be losing a fair amount of the time, but it will still be better than folding.

Only the most basic elements of this math go through my head while I'm tanking in real time. But I think I can get the gist of it. Because I fool around off table with these range charts, I can think something like this...

He has some worse sets here. I need roughly 20% equity. Goddamnit. If he's doing this with at least some two pairs, then I might be good. Would he do it with two pair? I think so, because it's probably worked for him before. And I think I'm seeing a shove here sometimes with a good flush, and he could have the nut flush, so we might be able to shave a few hands off the top of his range with this smaller raise. But maybe he'd be scared to raise a set or two pair because of the flush. Does he even see the flush? Maybe my small bet on the river told him that I didn't have it. Who knows?

I call.

(Pot $311)

Nicely done at the GN I also really enjoy the games at that place.

If I was in your shoes I’d consider brushing up on my O8 game and start with the $4/$8 at Orleans. Apparently easy money, can hopefully win a BB/hr and move up to $8/$16.

I like PLO8 but I'm terrible at it, at least at the online micros. I have a hard time telling when my low has been counterfeited and I get quartered a lot. Live, having to remember 4 cards without constantly checking them gives me the heebie jeebies.

I was actually a soldier in Iraq. Long story, TL;DR was on active duty Army in late 70s/early 80s. Joined National Guard after 911. Turned 49 while in Iraq. Wasn't the oldest guy there, either. Actually started playing poker again while there and got caught up in the Moneymaker boom. Loved me some Black Sabbath, but I learned a lot about how good entertainers like Wayne Newton really are. He has a gift. Looking forward to your continuing story.

I appreciate your service, carolinabay, and I would read the hell out of an "I was a middle-aged soldier" thread, either here or in the Other Other Topics subforum.

+1 To that.

Speaking of other topics: exercise routines are a lot like dreams in that there is a limited audience who wants to be bothered to hear about them. Mind you, the people who do like these topics are quite enthusiastic, but I'm not going to presume that I could make my exercise habits interesting to the general public, so I'll be brief.

I started a quick and simple program at home with dumbbells back in early October and--unlike most of my projects--I've kept up with it. All I want to say about it is that my concentration at the tables is better than it's ever been, even counting the times before when I wasn't drinking.

I know that the mindset pros swear by it, but it's counter intuitive to me that regular exercise will help you learn how to sit still better, and yet it seems to be working.

Exercise, no drinking at the tables, strat talk, more hours to be put in, and a nice win at the Nugget - I like where this thread is going! Gogogo Mr. Suited!

Exercise seems well documented to help with concentration and better sleeping. Keep up the good work.

The proceeds are going to a children's cancer charity.

Thanks Sheep!

6 hours at the Golden Nugget and I broke dead even. I wasn't trying for it; I made myself open 33 in MP on the last orbit when I would have chickened out beforehand. I got one call from the fit-or-fold BTN, the flop came down 826r and I took it down with a c-bet.

Golden Nugget: 6 hours:
$0

Book delivered today, wife will put it under the Christmas tree but I might have to pull and start reading before than.

Nice thread, I've enjoyed catching up and reading it.

Sorry to head backwards a little bit, but on the AK suited vs. Queens plus, I get much less than 42% equity. Can you walk through how you arrived at that number?

Thanks!