Quote:
Originally Posted by fidstar-poker
Probably check/call river as a bluff catcher myself.
If you bet I don't see him calling many worse hands, or folding anything better. He could also jam over your bet and you'd have to fold.
Would definitely call $70.
Very close to what I was thinking on the river.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Natamus
Villain probably rolls over 3x3x and you mucked after calling
Quote:
Originally Posted by URMeowed
With no reads, I just play it straightforward.
Preflop, I would make it more since I'm out of position with a premium hand. $20 to $22 sounds good.
This. At this table, I had gauged the threshold of pain (the size where you most often get 0-2 callers) after 1-2 limpers to be $12-$14. After 4 limpers, with me oop and holding a value hand I should have gone exploitative and made it $18-$20.
Quote:
Originally Posted by URMeowed
Flop, I missed so I'm checking and folding to a bet. Players at this level play pretty straightforward in raised pots. You are never getting a better hand to fold for one bet and he's weighted heavily to pocket pairs. Unpaired hands will mostly check back. It'll take a double barrel at least to get him off one pair and there aren't many good turn cards to do it with, namely just hearts and a Q. Even then, they'll put you on exactly what you have in AK and you'll still get a lot of calls especially if they pick up a gutshot straight draw with their pair. Just wait to barrel when you actually have an over pair.
I think it was a close call on the c-bet. I don't love check-folding here with a hand that has some TPTK equity, a backdoor flush draw, and even some small showdown value. There are also draws that I want to charge and draws that will bet this flop if I check.
Quote:
Originally Posted by URMeowed
As played, easy call on the river. The most likely hand you are up against is a flush draw. Checking gives him a chance to bluff. Very few hands you are getting value from betting all three streets as the preflop raiser. He will also most likely value own himself with KQ/KJ/KT spades.
That was my thought and my plan at the time, but I think that I went wrong somewhere along the line in terms of reads. More on that later.
Quote:
Originally Posted by URMeowed
I really think you are being optimistic with your ranging on the river. 64/96 suited?
They're on the edges of my $1/$2 loose/passive villain limp/call range. That's 37% so it's not ridiculous.
Quote:
Originally Posted by URMeowed
Also if he's good enough to know the K is a good card for you to double barrel, why would he then bluff the river with marginal showdown value hands when there's a reasonable chance it's good when you check the river??? What is he trying to represent on that board credibly that a bluff would work? Basically it's flopped sets or nothing.
One: If he's bluffing, what is my range? I could easily have a busted flush draw with the A
not accounted for (assuming he doesn't have it). Am I calling with A high? The bluff only has to work 28% of the time.
Two: Thin value. He has a fair number of Kxo and Kxs hands in his range that he might think are good after I check the river, and I might cry call a <1/2 pot with worse: 66, 99-QQ, A8s.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Morphismus
I would shove out of spite!
Only if I can say, "I put you all-in." when I do it.
Quote:
Originally Posted by kaeru
If you aren't value jamming here (making the assumption that villain is folding the vast majority of his 1pair combos) then you need to be tripling this spot super hard with your bluffs. If he isn't making enough one pair herocalls here to make AK a profitable value jam, you need to be amping up your riv frequencies with AQ/AJ stuff.
So ya, I'd value jam river and be happy about it. Its not like you need to be good 90% of the time every time you are making a value jam. You need to be good when called 50.00001% or however many decimal places you wanna put on it
I think that this is too much GTO balance for $1/$2, unless he's a very good player. The core of the problem in this hand is that I tried to create some sort of quantum line that worked vs a good player, a meh reg, and a passive station, and I mucked it up. Because it's not possible. I should have settled on a read based on the $1/$2 population and stayed with it.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sheep86
This looks like a bet, bet, bet all-in to me. I would go slightly bigger on the flop.
This is what I should have done, except for the all-in part. The majority of Bally's $1/$2 players fall into the meh reg category, and I should have assigned this to him by default, especially after his limp/call.
Meh regs try to limp in cheap and flop the world. Once they do that, they ram and jam the turn, sometimes the flop if it's wet and their hand is at all vulnerable. Only occasionally will they slowplay to the river, and in that case they will jam over you and you can bet/fold getting even excellent odds.
So, I bet the flop like I would vs a meh reg who is often fit or fold on the flop, I value bet the turn knowing that a meh reg would likely spring his trap at this point, then I failed to bet/fold the river because I chickened out and turned him into a good player.
Exactly how did I chicken out? It comes down to me looking at the prospect of betting $90 on the river, then having him jam for his remaining $75 and having to seriously contemplate folding. That's $75 to call to win a $500+ pot, meaning that I would have to be good less than 15% of the time with top top.