Last night I played the Harrah's overnight game from midnight to 6 AM. Lately, the wee hours have been the most reg-infested times there, due to Harrah's adding a
second freeroll for the top 20 weekly hours-getters from 1 AM-6 AM. I should have known better. This overnight game now presents the toughest $1/$2 lineup in Las Vegas, which makes it possibly the toughest $1/$2 game in the country.
I have zero interest in turning into a pale night creature, scrapping with the other regs for hours for the second freeburger. There is no reason for me to be there at that hour; and yet, there I was.
I don't know what I want out of this spot, beyond being a procrastinator during the day but still wanting to grind out the hours for the original freeroll, leaving me only the overnight to reconcile the competing drive and the lack thereof.
I know that I like the room. Harrah's has good dealers and a great floor staff, their tables are comfortably spaced, and their chairs can be adjusted high to accommodate for long legs--so I don't feel like I'm sitting down in a middle school classroom. As bad as the game is, it's become my comfort zone.
I am halfway through the Zach Elwood poker tell books, and they are starting to pay out--thanks again to the reader who suggested them! Let's look at a hand where I picked up a read, possibly.
Villain is an experienced reg with good hand reading skills who plays solid and can make big moves and put other players to the test.
He has recently rebought after pounding on a $5 straddle preflop, barreling big on all streets and shoving the river, heads up on a
5
8
6
3
8
board, creating a $900+ pot that had already been bloated early thanks to the preflop shenanigans.
His villain was a loose but good reg who had defended his straddle and had flopped the straight and then called my villain down. On the river the villain with the straight tanked forever; it looked so much like a boat or quads, either from 86s or from 55, 66 or 88, that it felt like a crying call at best. When he was finally called, my villain mucked. I believe that he was bluffing a busted flush draw.
I had watched my villain closely while his opponent had tanked and tanked, looking for signs of strength or weakness. Big pots like this are where you might pick up some tells. Relatively substantial money is at stake, and emotions come into play. He was very still, and his body was listing 25° off to the right. His villain peppered him with questions and statements--anything to induce a reaction, or to spark a glimmer of something--and he got nothing.
So that's what he looks like when he's running a big bluff, but does he look like that all the time? A lot of experienced players strike the same poses in the same spots regardless of their hand strength. I will have to try to catch his act another time, when he has the goods, and then make a comparison.
I pick up A
Q
in the cutoff and open for $10. My villain from the above hand calls from the SB, and the BB calls. I have about $440 behind and both players cover me.
Pot ($30) Three players.
Flop: Q
6
3
It's checked to me. I'm going to c-bet my whole range on this flop when it's three way and I'm in position. That's the standard business. It's fine if I get folds here. I would also get folds when holding ATo, J9s, 22 and so forth.
I bet $20, SB calls and BB folds.
Pot ($70) Two players.
Turn: 4
SB checks, I bet $40, and SB raises to $150.
Pot ($260) Two players.
If I call, pot will be $370 and we'll each be left with $280 effective behind.
What a lovely spot for villain to get a tagfish to stack off 225bb with an overpair or TPTK. Let's give him the nutted hands, and--just to keep things in perspective--let's add one marginal made hand, say JJ, which he may have decided to turn into a bluff on a dry board where I could be double barreling a wide range.
I need 29% equity, but only
if he's bluffing on 6 out of 22 combos, and we're likely to play for stacks on the river--I can't think of many river cards that are going to make me fold. So is he
really bluffing 27% of the time in that spot? Well, let's discount that and say he's only bluffing on 3 combos instead of 6.
Uh oh.
Now look, I don't do this sort of math in my head at the table. I do a fair amount of this work off the table, and I think it's given me a general feel for the equity comparisons in this spot and a few others. So my thought at the table was,
he's gotta be bluffing a fair amount for me to call him here. We're going for stacks after this, and it will be really embarrassing if I stack off 225bb with top top like a damn tournadonk tagfish. Is he bluffing me?
Into the tank I went. In the past, I've only had the math, some rudimentary but improving range analysis skills, and the previous hand histories to guide me through the tank; now I have some little bits of Zach Elwood's poker tell books.
Do I have enough of those yet, on a first read, having gotten through only half of each of two books? Probably not, but here I am. Look at him: he's very still, and listing 25° to starboard! He's shuffling his chips, though. Was he shuffling his chips last time? ****, I can't remember! Seems like he wasn't. ****! Grab your chips and cut out a call and see what he does. Nothing. Tank for a little while more and see if he looks at you, at anything. Nope. Can you ask him a question? Induce a reaction? If he gets angry or irritated or gives you an answer designed to goad you into a call then he's probably not bluffing. Table talk? Me? Is there a chat box I can type something into? ****!
I call.
Pot ($370) Two players
River:K
It's SB's turn to tank. He takes as long as I do. Is he hollywooding with the goods, trying to look weak? My first impulse is to doubt that, but Elwood says that bluffers often take a medium amount of time with their bets, as they don't want to stand out in either direction time-wise, which might draw attention and create suspicion.
I have seen plenty of players tank forever with the stone nuts before shoving. Oh boy...I can't fold. I can't fold. I better not fold.
Harrah's: 6 hours:
(-$14)
Last edited by suitedjustice; 03-05-2019 at 09:43 PM.