Here's a hand from yesterday that I thought was fairly standard at the time, but it's since been gnawing at me a bit. Let me know what you think.
First off, I have no reads. Villain has just sat down and has folded a few hands before getting involved with this one. He's an Asian guy in his early 40's, which means that his ability can range anywhere from fish to pro.
The only read I can use is his limping along/calling from MP, which makes the argument that he's not great, but even some decent players do that occasionally with medium suited connectors and low set mining pairs. What separates decent players from the fish is that they don't do it very
often. But again, this guy has just sat down so I don't know how often he does it.
Effective stacks are $250. Four players limp and it comes to me in the BB. I'm holding A
K
and I make it $15 to go. Folds to the MP, who calls, and everyone after him folds.
(Pot $39) - Two Players
Flop: 8
5
3
I bet $20 and MP calls.
(Pot $79) - Two Players
Turn: K
I bet $50 and MP calls.
(Pot $179) - Two Players
River: 7
64s and 96s have made a straight. I don't know if 96s calls the flop with a naked gutshot because I have no reads. 9
6
certainly does, but that's also a great hand to raise the flop with. Flush draws have bricked. Given the somewhat coordinated flop, I think I would have been raised by sets and two pair hands before getting to the river, but if he's a passive station, then maybe not.
Do I have a third street of value here? Maybe, if he's a passive station who's going to get sticky with a worse Kx, 99, A8, 66 or A
5
. He also might raise me with and/or show me the slowplayed goods, but will that happen more than 50% of the time? That's how often my value bet needs to be good.
Now if he's a good player, then he'll know that the K on the turn was a good card for me to double barrel with a lot of my range, a fair portion of that being air. If I check to him and he's good, wouldn't this be a good spot for him to fire off a bluff with his missed flush draws and hands like 87s, 65s and 54s, or even fire off a thin value bet with a worse K?
I check and MP bets $70
(Pot $249) - Two Players
Last edited by suitedjustice; 05-22-2019 at 04:14 PM.