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Russian Invasion of Ukraine Russian Invasion of Ukraine

11-16-2023 , 02:45 PM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DNyKZssyQhA

"How the deadlock in the war influences Zelenskyy's position"

No need to listen. The main takeaways from the participating expert is that A) overwhelming sentinment among the Ukrainian population is not to capitulate and continue fighting, and B) 2024 elections, both for the Rada and presidential, are not feasible and not seen as necessary by civil society during wartime.
Russian Invasion of Ukraine Quote
11-16-2023 , 09:14 PM
VERY GOOD 30 minute FT interview of Jack Watling from RUSI on the overall state of the conflict (Thanks to Hoopie1 for posting it):

Here is what he says when asked, "Some people are saying "Well we need to reframe this whole thing, if you look at the big picture Ukraine has done incredibly well and maybe it’s now time to call a halt and we’ll have a political negotiation, yeah they’ll have to give up some territory but overall it’ll be good and this will happen in the middle of next year." Have you heard similar?"

Quote:
Throughout the entire conflict people have thrown out these sorts of ideas at various times and it very much reeks of retreating into the world that you wish existed rather than the one that’s actually in front of you. Because Russians will take a ceasefire. They’ll take a ceasefire and they’ll prepare and they’ll go again. And if we get into a position where Ukraine is forced to make some sort of concession, Russia will bank it, and then exploit. They will capitalize on weakness. If we’re in a position where our view is “well look actually we need this to go away because we aren’t able to keep it up” then Russia has no incentive not to push further.

And the other thing is we’ve been pushing around this sort of information narrative for a long time that “oh the Russians aren’t that scary, they have an economy the size of Italy” and you say “right”, yet they’re outproducing the entirety of NATO. What deterrence message does that send to the Iranians or the Chinese or the Russians, if your response is “Oh dear this is a bit difficult, can we make this problem go away?” So I don’t think that the negotiated position that is being proposed is a realistic one: it is signaling weakness and you’ll get the opposite of what you want. It’s always interesting that the people who raise this start from the position of asking “Well what concessions should Ukraine make?” rather than asking “Well if we want a lasting peace, what is required?” And Ukraine would be very comfortable making concessions. They would be very pragmatic making concessions IF they thought those concessions bought them a lasting peace and a future as an independent country with a democracy and rights. But if they have to make concessions and it doesn’t buy them anything, then there is absolutely no reason for the Ukrainian government to negotiate or stop fighting. So I find the way that this desire for the whole problem to go away is framed is deeply unrealistic and it portrays a shallowness in political strategy because ultimately you need to convince the Russians that a lasting peace is better than the alternative to them otherwise they’re not going to come to the negotiating table in good faith.
https://www.ft.com/content/87cf8824-...d-f88a71977415











1. GRAPHIC Russian drone drops tear gas then regular grenades as people flee
2. Russians trying to escape an FPV in a car
3. anti-aircraft gun destroys shahed drone



Spoiler:

https://x.com/AndrewPerpetua/status/...668905079?s=20















1."A fire and explosions/detonation of ammunition were reported on the territory of a military unit in the Volgograd region, Russia.":
2. Rail "accident" in Russia

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Military significance of Avdiivka (especially important as several places are reporting it holds no military significance):


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1. "The deaths of crew members of the Russian submarine 'Rostov na Donu', destroyed in a Ukrainian missile strike on 13 September, has reportedly become the subject of a scandal after relatives were denied compensation and the dead had to be buried at their comrades' expense."
2. Widows of dead Russian servicemen are gifted fridges
3. Captured Russian and a journalist talking about how Russian minorities are viewed as expendable
4. Meduza article: "Police raid Voronezh restaurant, hand out 50 military summonses to immigrants from Azerbaijan"


Spoiler:

Threadreader: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1...oogle_vignette






https://meduza.io/en/news/2023/11/15...rom-azerbaijan












1. Soldiers complaining about not being properly outfitted when sent to the front
2. GRAPHIC Russian servicemen torturing and beating other Russian servicemen who allegedly took drugs and gave them to others, which resulted in deaths.
3. Another





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1. VERY GOOD 9 minute from Ander Puck Nielsen on what establishing the Dnipro bridgehead would mean
2. Footage of a Dnipro river crossing

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Russian Invasion of Ukraine Quote
11-17-2023 , 11:51 PM
1. Analysis of people blaming western aid in an effort to ignore the shortcomings of the Ukrainian military
2. History an analysis of long range weapons that were given to Ukraine



Spoiler:

Threadreader app: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1...oogle_vignette














1. Ukraine drone strikes on the left back of the Dnipro
2. FT article "Ukraine claims significant advance in counteroffensive against Russia":

Quote:
A western official said on Thursday that Ukraine had moved “elements of three brigades” to the Russian-occupied east bank of the river, and confirmed reports last week by Russian military bloggers that Ukraine has moved some vehicles across.

A brigade typically numbers 2,000 to 5,000 soldiers but the official said the Ukrainian contingent probably consisted of “hundreds”.

The western official said Russian forces had not been able to push them back and the Ukrainians had established a “significant foothold” in the area.

Quote:
Ukrainian forces were likely to build out their bridgehead positions slowly and then proceed in small steps, stretching Russian forces along the frontline rather than focusing on a counteroffensive thrust, the official said. The aim was probably to force Russian commanders to divert forces from other hotspots.
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Avdiivka assault, Russian troop is dropped off then the vehicle strikes a mine:


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Analysis of visibile KA-52 helicopters:



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Prime Minister of Estonia, Kaja Kallas, on Russian negotiation tactics:


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1. Russia claims Ukraine has done 8000+ strikes on Russian border regions
2. Volgograd military base burning
3. Romanov complaining about food being poisoned
4. ISW on Russia strengthening air defense over Russia (not the tweet I was looking for, they are moving air defense from east Russia, as well as combining two different types of air defense):


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DOD sending aid to Ukraine while aid package is still stalled:


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Moscow Times article "Business Leaders Voice Alarm to Putin Over ‘Frightening’ Nationalizations – Vedomosti"
FT article "Ex-Carlsberg executives detained in Russia over fraud claims"

Quote:
“It is appalling that the efforts of the Russian state to justify their illegal takeover of our business in Russia has now evolved into targeting innocent employees,” a spokesperson said. Baltika declined to comment.

Spoiler:

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/...domosti-a83135


Russian Invasion of Ukraine Quote
11-18-2023 , 11:00 PM
1. Ukrainian anti aircraft guns shooting at a drones at night
2. GRAPHIC Claim that a Ukrainian sniper sets new record with an almost 4km kill



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1. Russian sentenced to 7 years in prison for replacing grocery tags with anti-war messages
2. Meduza article on her ‘I’m behind bars, but I’m more free than you’
3. Moscow Times article on Russian doctors demanding her release

Quote:
More than 100 Russian doctors have signed an open letter to President Vladimir Putin calling for the release a woman jailed for making a supermarket protest over Russia's offensive against Ukraine.


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https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/...otestor-a83151













Interview with company commander of the 47th mechanized brigade on the counteroffensive (really attempts to evade all responsibility, but still a great read):

Quote:
Robotyne was our objective for the first day, and you know how it went. The enemy knew our routes of advance, all their artillery were zeroed on us. It was a chaos. Some of our companies were finished in 15 minutes, some in 30. Other brigades demonstrated sad records. Another example of chaos – I got a tank under my command to support us with storming enemy positions. The tank was reassigned to a different unit shortly prior to our assault, and we got guys I never saw before. They were clearly not happy to be here, and had no idea what’s going on.


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Analysis with pics of why "After being kept off the UN Human Rights Council & ousted from the International Court of Justice, it's now been thrown off #UNESCO 's Board":


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"Russian servicemen are stripped naked and put into pits for refusing to go into meat assault without proper equipment. To get out, they need to pay up 400k rubles."


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1. Russians across Dnipro surrender to Ukraine (Ukrainian military reported it, so might not be reliable)
2. Evidence of Chinese vehicles in the area


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1. Interview with a Russian citizen and a politician on inflation "If you don't buy, prices are fine"
2. Putin says Russia is doing great and it would Europe's loss if they cut ties with Russia:



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Russian Invasion of Ukraine Quote
11-20-2023 , 12:02 AM
"The propaganda war for Ukraine | DW Documentary" 90 minutes long, covering the start of the war. It goes over how Russia is completely top down when it comes to media, whereas Ukraine was showing videos from many outlets from Zelenskyy to random tik tokers. It goes over Russia's attempts to replicate this approach with their troll farms. Discusses things like Bucha, how Russia claimed it was fake, same with the maternity ward bombing in Mariupol. Also interesting because the beginning of the war Oleksii Arestovych was such an important figure, and he's now considered a traitor to Ukraine. Has several segments with Maria Avdeeva which were interesting. It also shows some interviews from a woman who was a Russian journalist sent to film propaganda for Russia in 2014 and she explains how it works.

The most interesting part was a short segment at 40 minutes in which shows Vladimir Solovyov, Putin's mouthpiece famous for his rants calling Ukrainians nazis and calling for their genocide, before the war. It shows him at a New Year Eve's program in 2013 with Zelenskyy, giving a speech about how Russia would never invade Ukraine because they are brothers, and also an interview in 2015 which he gives in English and comes off as an extremely friendly and charming person. His English voice was not at all what I expected, and it's crazy to think this is the same guy raging over how Zelenskyy is a Nazi.



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4ifShcUcfbU





UK estimate on Russian combat losses:

Quote:
“We estimate that approximately 302,000 Russian military personnel have been killed or wounded, and tens of thousands more have already deserted since the start of the conflict,” Heappey said.
Quote:
“We also estimate that over 7,117 Russian armored vehicles, including nearly 2,475 main battle tanks, 93 fixed-wing aircraft, 132 helicopters, 320 unmanned aerial vehicles, 16 naval vessels of all classes, and over 1,300 artillery systems of all types have been destroyed since the start of the conflict,” Heappey said.

https://mil.in.ua/en/news/uk-disclos...ainst-ukraine/







Ukraine begins to address issues with medical care of troops:


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1. Romanov on Kherson bridgeheads
2. Evidence of Ukraine south of Krynki



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Russian Invasion of Ukraine Quote
11-21-2023 , 10:25 PM
Secretary of Defense Austin goes to Kyiv:


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An example of how Putin controls Russian politics but having fake "opposition":


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1. Video of Russians in occupied Donetsk right before HIMARS hit during a concert:
2. Pics of the theater after


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1. Russian telegram claims Ukrainian counteattacks around Avdiivka
2. "Top UAF military planner callsign Arty Green short update on the Battle around Avdievka [ENGLISH]"
3. Mud season
4. Incendiaries


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1. Part of the 60 Minutes episode on the Ukrainian children kidnapped and brainwashed in Russia, discusses being told their parents don't want them and put into isolation for days:
2. cepa article on Russia's attempts to solve their shrinking population, largely due to the war. Methods include forced deportations from Ukraine, pressuring women into having children, and attacking abortions:



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1. CNN article on Ukrainian draft dodgers
2. BBC video focusing on the Romanian border and Ukrainians who attempt to flee there to avoid getting conscripted












Politico article on Ukraine gathering evidence for 109,000 war crimes:


https://www.politico.com/news/2023/1...rimes-00127936










NYT article on Ukrainians fleeing Russian occupied Ukraine back to Ukraine and talking about what occupation is like:


https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/16/w...-crossing.html










BBC article on Russia's "volunteer formations" which ultimately end up being a way for Russia's MOD to not give soldiers proper benefits:

Quote:
“Only professional military personnel—officers and contract soldiers—take part in the operation,” this is what Vladimir Putin said about the participants in the war in Ukraine. Probably, then the Russian authorities really did not prepare for the fact that new volunteers would fight at the front. But it was they who, after the failure of the plan with the rapid advance of the regular Russian army, bore the brunt of the conduct of hostilities.

According to BBC estimates, Russians who went to war from civilian life (volunteers, conscripts and prisoners) now account for 41% of all Russian casualties. Back in February 2023, the share of dead people who went to the front from civilian life was one and a half times lower - 25%.




Quote:
Moreover, in many of these decisions the same wording is found: “a contract for stay in a volunteer formation is not identical to a contract for military service.” This is what often leads to the fact that neither the volunteers themselves nor the military registration and enlistment offices understand what exactly their status guarantees them - as a result, the soldiers and their relatives go to court, demanding that they be provided with benefits and payments, like regular military personnel.

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Meduza article on the 17 year old Ukrainian who received a military summons in Russia, he has been returned to Ukraine:


https://meduza.io/en/feature/2023/11...s-his-way-home
Russian Invasion of Ukraine Quote
11-23-2023 , 05:11 AM
90 minute documentary 20 Days in Mariupol which covers the first 20 days of the siege of Mariupol. Highly reccomend, it's an extremely important documentary.


https://youtu.be/gvAyykRvPBo?si=gZIUI8skvRo7ptYA

Russian Invasion of Ukraine Quote
11-24-2023 , 11:42 AM
The problems (mainly Orban) holding Ukraine back from joining EU:

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1. UK MOD on two Ukrainian long range strikes on Russian troops and one of Russia's against Ukrainian troops:
2. Analysis of how not providing enough long range weapons and air defense escalates this conflict:


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1. Video of cluster bombs mentioned in the previous tweet used near Avdiivka
2. Use near Staromaiorske

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1. Bloomberg article on Ukraine potentially being forced to negotiation table due to lack of support:
2. Bloomberg article "EU Prepares Plan to Give Ukraine Lasting Security Commitments"
3. Politico article "Democrats remain vexed by the House as Ukraine funding hits crisis point":


Spoiler:



https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...ty-commitments









Russian serial killer and cannibal pardoned so he can fight in Ukraine:


Spoiler:

Threadreader app: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1...756237686.html











1. Russian near Dnipro complaining about the state of the battle at Krynky
2. Russian channel with similar complaints
3. UK MOD on the fighting there
4. ISW on the fighting there and Russian millbloggers panicking over the situation
5. Video of Ukrainians attacking a Russian convoy and stealing ammo:


Spoiler:






Russian Invasion of Ukraine Quote
11-25-2023 , 06:43 PM
23 minute video "RUSSIAN Economy Collapsing - Oil & Gas Revenues Fall 65% & Russia Posts Net Loss of R1.7 Trillion" compares official stats from Russian Minister of Finance in October to data from 2021:














NYT recap of the G20 summit, where Putin gave an 8 minute speech virtually:

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/22/w...a-war-g20.html













1. Russian complaining about state of the troops near Krynky. Says the only positive thing is 2 Wagner soldiers, complains artillery fire is limited due to Ukraine's counterbattery
2. Russians complaining about mice infestations, lack of winter clothing, and supplies being stolen
3. Russian filming a location badly wounded soldiers are sent before being sent back to the frontline
4. Storm Z instructor complaining "despite very high density of fire, Russian artillery is unable to provide proper support for assaulting units"
5. More on relatives of dead Russians attempting to get their benefits from the military:

Spoiler:




Threadreader app: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1...oogle_vignette














1. Russia launches 75 Shahed drones at Kyiv, a record. Ukraine claims to have destroyed 71
2. Anti-air taking out drones at night

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Ukraine strikes a warehouse in Russia:


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Russia slows down assaults on Avdiivka, probably due to the weather:



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Business Insider article on why Ukraine was correct to fight for Bakhmut despite the losses (I disagree):

https://www.businessinsider.com/ukra...ff-2023-11?amp
Russian Invasion of Ukraine Quote
11-27-2023 , 01:10 PM
1. Scout drone spots a tank, calls for a drone to kill it, tank gets stuck in mud and the drone arrives. War on the Rocks mentioned that the response time for this has come down a lot since they visited earlier in the year:
2. "Videos of Russian FPV drones defeated by EW."


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1. Claim that Russia has taken part of a district in Avdiivka
2. Kyiv Post Article "Russia Captures Fortified Factory District in Avdiivka, Ukrainian Troops Reportedly Outgunned":


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WAPO article on two Ukrainian teenagers that were held in Russia:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world...ine-war-putin/















Rob Lee on continued importance of tanks


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1. Russian factory burning
2. Drones flying over Tula, Russia
3. 11 drones shot down in Moscow, closing two airports
4. UK MOD on Russia moving air defense systems from Kaliningrad where they aren't needed despite being surrounded by NATO



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1. Winter in Ukraine
2. Weather around Crimean Coast as a large storm goes through


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FT article "Turkey’s exports of military-linked goods to Russia soar"

Quote:
The growing trade, and the corresponding rise in imports to Turkey of 45 civilian materials used by Russia’s military, has undermined US and European attempts to curb Moscow’s ability to equip its armed forces, fuelling tensions between Ankara and its Nato partners.

In a sign of how it has become a priority in Washington to rein in this trade, Brian Nelson, US Treasury under-secretary for terrorism and financial intelligence, will visit Istanbul and Ankara this week, where he is set to discuss “efforts to prevent, disrupt, and investigate trade and financial activity that benefit the Russian effort in its war against Ukraine”.

It will be Nelson’s second trip to Turkey this year and comes amid indications that some dual-use parts — identified by the US and its allies as being of particular value to the war — are being transported directly to Russia even when they have been labelled as going to another country.


https://www.ft.com/content/1cef6628-...1-2aef9bce4239
Russian Invasion of Ukraine Quote
11-28-2023 , 05:54 PM
1. Interview with Ukrainian soldier complaining they only have ammo to fire from their mortar 2-3 times a day
2. Kyiv Independent Op-ed "Ukraine could still lose the war. Let’s get some things straight", mostly discussing the West's failure to provide proper aid, claiming they fear a decisive defeat of Russia
3. Politico article "France backtracks on EU-only ammo for Ukraine"
4. Foreign Affrais article "A Containment Strategy for Ukraine" Covers how Ukraine was largely a victim of its initial successes when it came to the counteroffensive, lack of aid due to far-right in congress, inability to make a peace deal, and how to contain Russia


Quote:
The Russian military is bogged down in Ukraine, and as a result, Moscow’s regional influence in Central Asia and the South Caucasus has diminished. (Had Russia taken Kyiv, the opposite would now be the case.) But at present, Russia is only imperfectly, and perhaps temporarily, contained in Ukraine and beyond. For years to come, containment will have to be supported with more European and sustained U.S. military aid; the West must also maintain its sanctions on Russia and better enforce their implementation. Aid to Ukraine is not philanthropy. For Europe, the success or failure of containing Russia will shape the whole continent’s security. For the United States, the success or failure of containing Russia in Europe will define the future of the international order it leads.

Containing Russia should be conceptualized—and celebrated—as a steady continuum of action that started before February 2022 and came into its own with the Ukrainian defense of Kyiv and battlefield advances in the fall of 2022. Containment, by definition, can deliver only a partial victory, and for this reason, ups and downs in public sentiment in countries allied with Ukraine are to be expected. These ups and downs make it all the more worthwhile for Western leaders, who are sensitive to surges of optimism and disappointment, to adopt containment as their unchanging compass. Doing so will help both Ukraine’s war efforts and morale in Ukraine’s allies. Sticking to a consistent, realistic strategy amid the ebbs and flows of sentiment in a major war is its own source of self-confidence.









1. Russian volunteer asking people to donate winter clothing talks about the huge losses Russian soldiers have suffered
2. "Russian occupier, who came to Ukraine for $2000 a month, is complaining that the command is sending him and his comrades to a sure death on the Dnieper islands."
3. Russians who were in Krynky complaining about suicide missions
4. Russian soldier complaining about quality of new Russian mortar rounds


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1. Short thread 'The Kremlin has reportedly told regional governors to "extinguish with money" the protests of wives of mobilised soldiers ahead of next March's elections. It is said to believe that they are "often waiting not for their husbands from the war, but for their salary cards".'
2. Short clip from the November 19th meeting of relatives of Russian soldiers
3. Summary of the November 19th meeting
4. Business Insider article "Putin fears the wrath of soldiers' wives as the Kremlin tries to buy off potential protesters, report says"
5. AP Article "Intercepted calls from the front lines in Ukraine show a growing number of Russian soldiers want out"
6. Newsweek article "Russian Soldiers' Wives Protest Against Putin: 'We Got Screwed!'"

Spoiler:





https://www.businessinsider.com/puti...eports-2023-11
https://apnews.com/article/ukraine-w...89feb821cd29ec
https://www.newsweek.com/russian-wom...appeal-1847074











Guardian article "Ukraine to change conscription policies in drive to sustain fighting capacity":

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NYT article "Wife of Ukraine’s Spy Chief Was Poisoned, Officials Say"


https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/28/w...?smid=tw-share









1. Short thread on Russia trying to organize a "migrant invasion" of Finland:
2. AP article "Why Finland is blaming Russia for a sudden influx of migrants on its eastern border":



Spoiler:



https://apnews.com/article/finland-r...539074c4dc39e1
Russian Invasion of Ukraine Quote
11-30-2023 , 12:37 PM
1. I think I linked this video before, but there's now several more clips of Russia's aerial cluster bombs:
2. Russians walking through mud

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High ranking Russian commander killed:


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1. Ukraine strikes a warehouse in Russia holding Shahed drones
2. Russian telegram reports strike on Crimea
3. Russian telegram on more Ukrainian drones in Russian airspace
4. Ukraine special services blow up a Russian train heading to China


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1. Video of an American factory that produces 155mm shells and plans to increase its production 6x in the next 5 years
2. Kyiv Independent article on France pledging to boost ammunition output
3. Kyiv Independent article "Czech president: Western military support for Ukraine insufficient for high-intensity operation"



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Zelenskyy on Ukraine's air defense:



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Russian Invasion of Ukraine Quote
12-02-2023 , 04:38 PM
1. Russian telegram claims all attacks along Dnipro were repelled yet Ukraine still gained ground somehow
2. Russian telegram complaining about drones in Krynky

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"Deepstate_UA's map shows small Russian gains on the Marinka, Avdiivka, Bakhmut, and Lyman fronts this week."
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1. Reuters article "Russia increases maximum size of armed forces by 170,000 servicemen"
2. Thread on how Russia is taking advantage of their bribery system to give bigger fines to migrant taxi drivers so they are forced to conscript
3. BBC article ""One Day Call" How military registration and enlistment offices in Moscow conduct raids on conscripts"
Quote:
The entire conscription campaign is carried out according to the principle of “conscription in one day” - if a person ends up in a military registration and enlistment office, in the evening he is already at the assembly point before being sent to a military unit
Spoiler:

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe...en-2023-12-01/











Ft article "US aims to halve Russia’s energy revenues by 2030, says official"

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1. "The AP Interview: Ukraine’s Zelenskyy says the war with Russia is in a new phase as winter looms"
2. "In our military doctrine, to break through the kind of defenses we see in southern #Ukraine, you need an air advantage, and much more. We did not provide that to the Ukrainians," former CIA chief Gen. David Petraeus said in an interview with the BBC"
3. Pravda article 'Zelenskyy orders rapid building of fortifications on "all major fronts"'

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German domestic politics affecting increasing capacity to produce ammo:


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1. UK MOD on Putin attempting to silence wives of soldiers
2. Wives complain that prisoners are allowed to go home after 6 months while their husbands are in the war indefinitely
2. Putin trying to restrict abortions and free female inmates to combat demographic crisis
4. Business Insider article "Putin is urging women to have as many as 8 children after so many Russians died in his war with Ukraine"

Spoiler:





https://www.businessinsider.com/ukra...crisis-2023-11
Russian Invasion of Ukraine Quote
12-04-2023 , 11:56 PM
Anybody know what areas the migrant taxi drivers come from?
Russian Invasion of Ukraine Quote
12-05-2023 , 12:37 AM
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/...summons-a82303

Quote:
Migrant workers in Russia — a large portion of whom come from Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Armenia — already report having to take on additional jobs and work 15-hour days to adjust for the changing exchange rate between the ruble and their home currencies.

But the possibility of being sent to the battlefield in Ukraine poses a more immediate threat than a sluggish economy.

Male migrants who receive Russian citizenship — often in the hope of improving their economic prospects — are required by law to register with the Russian military and can be called up to serve in the army during mobilization.

But they are not the only ones being targeted in the recent raids.

“It is not only Russian citizens who are being added to the military register; they attempt to force everyone brought [to a police department following a raid] to sign a military contract,” said Valentina Chupik, a human rights lawyer and the founder of Tong Zhakhoni, an NGO offering legal assistance to migrants in Russia.

Chupik said she receives thousands of requests each month for advice and legal assistance from migrant laborers working in Russia.
Russian Invasion of Ukraine Quote
12-05-2023 , 07:28 PM
1. Ukraine air defense
2. UK MOD on ground based air defenses


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Reuters article on GLSDB being delivered to Ukraine late December, testing, then deployed next year (another delay)
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1. GRAPHIC Drone does recon for two Ukrainian defenders near Robotyne defending against an assault
2. Visually confirmed losses from the counteroffensive
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WarGonzo on Krynky


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1. Ukraine military claiming Russian attacks on Avdiivka have slowed
2. Russian mouse infestation
3. Interview with Ukrainian volunteer who recently returned from Avdiivka
4. Various videos from a unit there


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Russian general confirmed to have been killed by Russian artillery

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Ukrainian POW talks about torture: losing 40kg, being beaten for up to an hour and a half:


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1. Russia receiving western goods through Central Asia
2. Bloomberg article "Putin Seizes Rights to St. Petersburg Airport From Foreign Investors", first time he's done this to nations which aren't "unfriendly"
3. Bloomberg article "Europe Is Guzzling Diesel From India, a Key Buyer of Russian Oil"
4. Newsweek article "Russia Says It Was 'Caught off Guard' After Country 'Loses' 76 Planes"







FT article "EU budget dispute threatens €50bn war lifeline for Ukraine" on Orban preventing aid to Ukraine and their joining the EU

https://www.ft.com/content/6cd69168-...3-38fd176cd806
Russian Invasion of Ukraine Quote
12-06-2023 , 02:34 PM
1. UAV using thermal cameras to attack Russians
2. Russian "cocoon" used to counter detection from thermal
3. Rare tank vs tank battle, Russian tank survives a hit from a drone

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1. Johnson reiterates no aid to Ukraine with border wall funding
2. Senator Graham says no aid until wall funding (he has been a very vocal supporter for Ukraine
3. Zelenskyy cancels last minute to give speech to senate
4. McConnell says no aid to Ukraine until border funding is secured
5. Sullivan gives interview saying that anyone voting against Ukraine funding is directly aiding Putin

(I am catching up on a week's worth of news after traveling and do not follow domestic politics very much. My understanding is that Zelenskyy was set to give a speech to the Senate but canceled last minute, likely due to being told that Republicans were going to say this. I also read that this is somehow Biden's fault for tieing the border issue into aid to Ukraine/Taiwan/Israel. If anyone can clarify what exactly is happening with the border funding, I would really appreciate it.)

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Carnegie Endowment for International Peace article "Arsenal of Democracy: Integrating Ukraine Into the West’s Defense Industrial Base" on the problems Ukraine's defense sector faces including corruption, lagging international support, poor management and private sectors, and lagging technologies:

Spoiler:

Russian Invasion of Ukraine Quote
12-10-2023 , 01:44 PM
1. "The 25mm auto-cannon of the Bradley working on Russian troops near Avdiivka."
2. combat medic helping in a trench as it is being overrun by Russians
3. Russia shelling the Avdiivka coke plant


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1. WSJ article "Troubled by a Resurgent Russia and Bickering Allies, Ukraine Hunkers Down"

Quote:
Kyiv’s forces are now digging in for what could be an extended period of just trying to stop any more Russian advances. Western diplomats and military strategists say a depleted Ukraine needs time to rebuild, and that it may not be able to mount another significant counteroffensive until 2025.
2. ISW on Ukraine using winter to build fortifications

Spoiler:

https://www.wsj.com/world/europe/tro...-down-fd8240f1







1. 8 planes malfunction in Russia in 1 week
2. Video from inside a commercial flight after the engine caught fire


Spoiler:









WSJ article "The Violent Homecoming of Russian Convicts Freed to Fight in Ukraine" on the violence committed by convicts who were freed after fighting in Ukraine

Spoiler:












SBU assassinates Ukrainian defector:

Spoiler:















Russian bloggers complain about N Korean ammo:

Spoiler:












Orban says Ukraine is too corrupt for EU, Hungary currently rated as more corrupt than Ukraine:

Spoiler:













Russia passes laws limiting how much the price for food can be raised by grocery stores



Spoiler:
Russian Invasion of Ukraine Quote
12-13-2023 , 02:09 AM
1. Ukrainian tank in the snow, fires at a house full of Russians
2. Ukrainians attacking Russian position, call in drones for help
3. Ukrainian drone strike followed by artillery
4. GRAPHIC Ukrainian drones stop Russian assault near Bakhmut
5. Video showing the intensity of the shelling on Avdiivka
6. "Russian Grad MLRS transformed into some kind of Artwork"
7. What it sounds like to be under attack by FPV drones


Spoiler:






https://x.com/Teoyaomiquu/status/173...459645151?s=20










1. Zelenskyy at the White House to meet Biden
2. Biden: “If you’re being celebrated by Russian propagandists, it might be time to rethink what you’re doing.”
3. Zelenskyy on meeting with House Dems (also met with the Speaker)
4. Politco article "Orbán aide: Hungary could lift Ukraine funds veto if EU unblocks all frozen cash"
5. Guardian article "Republicans to meet allies of Hungary’s Viktor Orbán on ending Ukraine aid"
6. FT article on Zelenskyy trying to get aid from both EU and USA
7. FT article "EU explores emergency Ukraine funding outside bloc’s shared budget"
8. Zelenskyy confronting Orban in Argentina
9. Seating arrangement so Orban is literally cornered

Spoiler:







https://www.politico.eu/article/hung...-balasz-orban/



https://www.ft.com/content/638e6d11-...d-b03cc7f62163





















1. Ukrainian hackers attack Russia's Federal Tax Service
2. Russian hackers attack a large Ukraine bank and cellphone provider


Spoiler:










Russian helicopter pilot assassinated:

Spoiler:
Russian Invasion of Ukraine Quote
12-14-2023 , 03:24 AM
1. Anders Puck Nielsen on why the Avdiivka offensive was a surprise, politics around it and how Russia found the soldiers for it
2. UK MOD on what is happening there now



Spoiler:














1. Drone strike on Russian trench with counter drone screens
2. Ukrainian claims Russia has a 5-7:1 drone advantages in some key locations


Spoiler:










1. 50+ injured by ballistic missile strike on Kyiv
2. Ukrainian MP on Russian ballistic missile strikes on Kyiv
3. UK MOD on the recent missile strikes

Spoiler:


TWEET]1734831500145639847[/TWEET]







1. Russia blogger complaining the commander near the Dnipro is facing lies from all levels of his command
2. Ukrainian drone pilots show some of the ruined Russian vehicles that tried to counterattack Krynky



Spoiler:









1. Biden on Republicans withholding aid money, also said that if aid isn't sent before Congress breaks it would be a Christmas present to Putin
2. Bloomberg article on Biden offering concessions to get the funding
3. Politico article and analysis on Zelenskyy's visit
4. CNN article "5 takeaways from Ukrainian President Zelensky’s critical trip to Washington"



Spoiler:







https://www.cnn.com/2023/12/12/polit...sky-washington
Russian Invasion of Ukraine Quote
12-14-2023 , 03:06 PM
1. Long thread on Storm Z units being denied hospital service and sent back to frontlines despite serious wounds
2. 'Wives and relatives of mobilised Russian men from the "Way home" organisation recorded a manifest demanding to return their men home. '
3. BBC article "Russia luring migrants from Finnish border for war in Ukraine"










1. Politico article on how Russia has largely managed to reroute how they get dual-use items, sidestepping those sanctions "Which company is the leading maker of the so-called “high-priority battlefield items” trafficked to Russia that the Western coalition wants to interdict? If you said Intel, then go to the top of the class"

2. PBS article "U.S. announces new sanctions on Russia’s weapons suppliers"
3. Evidence that a lot of Germany's sales to Kyrgyzstan go directly to Russia



Spoiler:





https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politic...pons-suppliers








1. Finnish article on Russification of Ukrainian children living in occupied Ukraine "The purpose of the camps is to Russianize Ukrainian children, that is, in practice, to brainwash them."
2. AP article "Life in Russian-controlled areas of Ukraine is grim. People are fleeing through a dangerous corridor"
3. The Economist article "“Grief camps” help Ukrainian children face the loss of parents"

Quote:
Yuri, now 16, is one of the oldest at the camp. He says younger children find it harder to process what they are feeling: “They haven’t developed their psyche or whatnot properly yet.” In the months after his father’s shooting, Yuri was consumed by a desire for revenge. He tracked down the killer on a Ukrainian secret-service database, recognising his nose and eyes, and left a message on his social-media account: “You killed my dad but didn’t get me.” The soldier replied with the verbal equivalent of a shrug. In the age of the internet, grieving children are often only a click away from talking to a parent’s killers or seeing a photo of their corpse.

Yuri says therapy has helped alleviate his anger. He now feels an intense urge to help those around him. But those closest to him are taking no chances. Ms Lebedeva has arranged for him to study at a prestigious college in New York, where he can see a way of life that is not war. “We worry his desire for revenge will push him to the front lines,” she says. “His mother told me she wouldn’t be able to cope with another funeral.”








1. UK Foreign Secretary David Cameron arguing that the $350 billion of frozen Russian assets should be given to Ukraine
2. FT article "EU seeks to raise €15bn for Ukraine from Russia’s frozen assets"


Spoiler:











1. Putin states that he still has the same goals for the war as when he launched it:
2. NBC's highlights for the annual televised Q&A
3. Some of the tough questions which weren't filtered out


Spoiler:




https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/l...how-rcna129687








Third day in a row of Russian strikes on Ukrainian infrastructure:

Spoiler:









European Council opens accession talks for Ukraine and Moldova


Spoiler:


Russian Invasion of Ukraine Quote
12-15-2023 , 01:31 AM
1. Bradley firing on 3 Russian vehicles at night
2. Ukrainians discussing the importance of Bradleys


Spoiler:







1. "A Russian intelligence officer has signed an affidavit to the International Criminal Court and is flying there to testify against the Russian dictator."
2. CNN article "US charges Russian soldiers with war crimes against an American in Ukraine"


Spoiler:


https://www.cnn.com/2023/12/06/polit...mes/index.html





1. Politico article "US declassifies intel as the White House pushes for more Ukraine funding"

Quote:
Some Republicans who support further Ukraine funding, however, aren’t overly worried, with one Senate aide saying that deals that seem impossible tend to come together as the clock nears zero. “It will go through,” said the staffer, granted anonymity because they weren’t authorized to speak to the press.
2. Trending clip on GOP narrative for why they are against support
3. Zelenskyy's office on the report and how effective the aid has been
4. Reuters article on the report
5. Politico article with Fiona Hill discussing the importance of the funding, what it means if Ukraine wins vs if Russia wins, future implications etc.
6. Reuters article "US Senate to delay holiday break as border, Ukraine aid talks continue"




Spoiler:

https://www.politico.com/news/2023/1...ified-00131296






https://www.politico.com/news/magazi...putin-00131285

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-...rs-2023-12-14/










Reuters article claiming Scholz forced Orban out of the room so they could unanimously vote on Ukraine accession (doesn't give details):


https://www.reuters.com/world/europe...an-2023-12-13/






The Hill article "Congress approves bill barring any president from unilaterally withdrawing from NATO"




https://thehill.com/homenews/4360407...hdrawing-nato/
Russian Invasion of Ukraine Quote
12-16-2023 , 09:35 PM
BATTLE FOOTAGE

1. Tank vs Tank footage from May
2. Russian bombing by SU-34

Spoiler:










RUSSIAN PROPAGANDA

1. BBC article "Russia tricks US actors into appearing in propaganda videos"
2. BBC Article "Ukraine war: How TikTok fakes pushed Russian lies to millions"
3. BBC video on the article
4. Allegedly a document released showing the 'Putin team' that will help get him reelected

Spoiler:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-67644699.amp




















AID TO UKRAINE


1. BBC Article "Ukraine war: Shell shortages force us to limit firing, Ukrainian troops tell BBC"
2. GOOD READRUSI article "Europe Must Urgently Prepare to Deter Russia Without Large-Scale US Support"


Quote:
With the notable exception of Poland, many national commitments to significant additional defence spending have either not yet materialised or are not slated to take effect for several years. The most obvious example is Germany, which shortly after the Russian invasion made a public commitment to spend 2% of GDP on defence by 2024, in addition to a one-off €100 billion investment in revitalising Bundeswehr capabilities. However, only €1.5 billion from the fund had actually been spent by mid-2023, and the defence budget as a whole actually decreased slightly compared to 2022.
Quote:
Despite growing political frustration in many Western countries at the rising costs and lack of decisive progress, there is no easy way out of this war. In post-Cold War counterinsurgency conflicts, Western expeditionary campaigns ultimately ended when a political decision was made in Washington and other capitals to make some form of messy compromise in exchange for a sufficient ‘peace’ to withdraw. This is not possible with Russian aggression in Ukraine. Talk of Ukraine ‘having to enter negotiations’ is dangerously misguided and naïve because it ignores the fact that Russian aims have hardened, but not changed. The Kremlin’s will to grind on can be seen in its clear preparations for a long war and continued offensive action despite suffering several hundred thousand soldiers killed or seriously wounded and more than 2,500 tanks visually confirmed destroyed or captured. This is not the behaviour of a regime that will accept any lasting end to its offensive war of choice if Western governments withhold military support to force Kyiv into making concessions for a negotiated ceasefire. In fact, such a betrayal of Ukraine would have quite the opposite effect, encouraging Putin’s regime to continue to fight in the belief of eventual victory. It would also send an incredibly dangerous message to both Russia and China about the West’s lack of will to fight, making it far harder to deter future aggression.
3. Reuters article "Europe must rearm as new threats loom, German minister says"
4. France stops selling weapons to Qatar and Saudi Arabia and attempts to buy back some of their stockpiles
5. Hungary blocks 50 billion aid package to Ukraine
6. FT article "Volodymyr ZelenskyyÂ’s bitter week of disappointment"
7. Fiona Hill on CNN talking about aid to Ukraine:




Spoiler:




https://www.reuters.com/world/europe...ys-2023-12-16/




https://www.ft.com/content/086d90c4-...c-f38f67eb59df













During his annual Q&A Putin accidentally reveals approximately 360k Russian soldiers lost in Ukraine


Spoiler:






Very in depth analysis by Estonian MoD on Russia's military and the Ukraine conflict:


Spoiler:
Russian Invasion of Ukraine Quote
12-18-2023 , 05:20 PM
BATTLE CLIPS

1. Javelins hit Russian armor
2. Ukrainian tank trying to crush Russian soldiers at close range
3. Baba Yaga drones
4. Tank fires on Russian before infantry attacks

Spoiler:












UKRAINE WEATHER

1. Gun on a flooded embankment
2. Muddy roads


Spoiler:












1. Russian ammo warehouse destroyed near Dnipro
2. NYT article "Ukrainian Marines on ‘Suicide Mission’ in Crossing the Dnipro River"
3. Magyar's response to the NYT article:



Spoiler:














RUSSIAN ECONOMY

1. Moscow Times “The Central Bank acknowledged that billions of dollars of Russian raw material income were fake."
2. NYT article "How Putin Turned a Western Boycott Into a Bonanza" on Russia takeover of western companies

Quote:
In August of that year, Mr. Putin issued a decree requiring that companies in key industries obtain his signature before selling their Russian assets. Scores of businesses, including divisions of Siemens and Caterpillar, were suddenly subject to the whims of Mr. Putin himself.
Quote:
The Russian government, he decreed in April, could seize foreign assets and put them under the temporary oversight of whomever it liked. Companies now risked being seized outright.

Spoiler:


https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...raine-war.html






AVDIIVKA


1. Analysis of vehicles lost around Avdiivka through the end of November
2. Bradley fighting near Stepove
3. Ukrainians firing on Russians

Spoiler:









RUSSIAN RECRUITMENT


1. "Badly injured "veterans" from "Luhansk People's Republic" can't survive on an $80 pension, which is so small because "no one sent them there [to Ukraine]"."
2. Captured Nepali fighting for Russia talks about how he was recruited
3. RFERL article "The Redut Ruse" on how Redut is a fake "private military" used to recruit for the Russian military
4. Russian recruitment poster


Spoiler:














ORBAN


1. Minister of Foreign Affairs of Lithuania on Orban
2. Former Lithuanian Defense Minister and EU Parliamentarian on Orban
3. FT article "EU strives to make Orbán realise ‘full costs’ of isolation after Ukraine veto"



Spoiler:



https://www.ft.com/content/96d15e1a-...a-8234f993b8b4





COMPENSATION

1. "The first meeting of the Board of the Register of Damages Caused by the Aggression of the Russian Federation against Ukraine took place in Hague"
2. FT article "G7 moves closer to seizing Russian assets for Ukraine"

Quote:
G7 officials have intensified talks in recent weeks on spending some of the roughly $300bn in immobilised Russian sovereign assets, a radical step that would open a new chapter in the west’s financial warfare against Moscow.
Quote:
EU proposals have so far stopped short of seizing the Russian assets themselves, instead aiming to skim off profits generated for financial institutions such as Euroclear, where €191bn in sovereign assets are held.

But calls for tapping the assets themselves have grown louder as cracks have emerged in the political consensus on additional funding for Ukraine. Aid packages worth $60bn and €50bn in Washington and Brussels, respectively, failed to win approval this week.
Spoiler:











RUSSIAN ESPIONAGE

1. CNN article "The mystery of the missing binder: How a collection of raw Russian intelligence disappeared under Trump"
2. WSJ article: "He’s Wanted for Wirecard’s Missing $2 Billion. He’s Now Suspected of Being a Russian Spy.
Jan Marsalek, the jet-setting former COO of now-defunct Wirecard, enabled Moscow to fund covert operations around the world, officials say; ‘whiff of Silicon Valley’"


Spoiler:








NATO TRAINING

Very candid interview with Hodges on NATO training Ukrainians. Discusses how he agrees with criticism that NATO would never put troops through Ukrainians are put through. USA training changed based on what Ukrainians were telling them, and their troops got "hammered" going through the training before they learned how to fight differently. Believes Ukrainian should be instructors for the most part. Lessons learned. How force regeneration will occur.


Spoiler:







Macron replies to Putin saying France stopped talking to Russia


Spoiler:
Russian Invasion of Ukraine Quote
12-19-2023 , 08:27 PM
BATTLE CLIPS

1. Bradly 25mm cannon
2. Russian aviation bomb near Dnipro
3. Javelin strike at night

Spoiler:







RUSSIAN WAR CRIMES AND HUMAN RIGHTS OFFENSES

1. Ex Russian colonel and ex Wagner instructor flees to Netherlands and wants to testify about Russian war crimes to ICC
2. Economist article "Alexei Navalny, Russia’s opposition leader, is missing in the gulag"
3. GREAT READ Guardian article "Mr Fifty Percent: the former Ukraine mayor doing Putin’s work in Kherson" about life in occupied Kherson

Quote:
Olena has received letters that she believes have been smuggled out on behalf of her husband. Some are oblique, written like poems. In one, he says he spat in his tormentor’s face. Olena finds its title baffling: “Call to the office of the president of Ukraine.” The accounts of former detainees in liberated Kherson city help to decipher the message. The torturers had electrical cables. They would clip them to bodies and turn on the current. A “call to Zelensky”, Ukraine’s president, meant attaching the wires to the victim’s genitals. Attaching them to the anus was known as a “call to Biden”. Sometimes they would douse the prisoner’s flesh with water first, to make it conduct the shocks better.
Quote:
For decades, the Kremlin has exploited Ukraine’s Achilles heel: corruption. From dirty gas and steel deals with Ukrainian oligarchs to subverting anti-corruption campaigns by exploiting the resultant scandals, the Russians have capitalised on a great weakness in Ukraine’s young democracy. In Saldo, whose appetite for kickbacks earned him the nickname Mr Fifty Percent, it would seem they found a natural partner.
4. GREAT READ Letter from UN to Putin 'Russia “should immediately cease its use of force against Ukraine,” Türk declares' (UN High Commissioner for Human Rights)


Quote:
They include 142 cases of summary execution of civilians since February 2022, in territory controlled by Russian armed forces or occupied by the Russian Federation. On occupied territory, we have documented widespread torture and ill-treatment of detainees, including sexual violence, as well as large numbers of enforced disappearances.

Quote:
As of 4 December, my Office has recorded and confirmed over 10,000 civilian deaths resulting from the conflict since February 2022, including more than 560 children. A further 18,500 civilians have been confirmed injured, many of them severely. The true toll is probably substantially higher.
Quote:
In territories occupied by the Russian Federation, including Crimea, we have documented patterns of arbitrary detention and enforced disappearance, by Russian armed forces, of local officials, journalists, civil society activists and other civilians. They include numerous Crimean Tatar activists.

The Russian Federation has not permitted us to access any of its places of detention in these territories, impeding a complete count of these cases. But among the victims of arbitrary detention, incommunicado detention and enforced disappearance documented by my Office since 24 February 2022, at least one hundred civilians died after having been taken into detention by Russian authorities. At least 39 of them appeared to have been tortured before their death: practices of torture and other cruel treatment have been widespread in places of detention in Russian-occupied territories. Many cases of torture that we have documented include sexual violence.
Quote:
Regarding the issue of the forcible transfer of Ukrainian children to the Russian Federation, we documented the return of two children to Ukraine during the reporting period. I reiterate our call for the prompt return of all deported and transferred individuals, including children.
Spoiler:



https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...ork-in-kherson
https://www.ohchr.org/en/statements-...t-ukraine-turk






RUSSIAN SANCTIONS

1. Zelenskyy on 12th EU sanctions
2. Kyiv Independent article "Investigation: Italian company makes sure Russian war machine has the steel it needs"
3. Reuters article on the sanctions
4. German export of cars show that many are likely going to Russia (I think this might be a repost)

Spoiler:



https://www.reuters.com/world/europe...rs-2023-12-14/









Ukraine scales back operations due to shell shortages

Spoiler:








SUPPORT FOR UKRAINE

1. Germany shows 68% in favor of Ukrainian aid, 35% believe in increasing aid sent
2. Recent Fox news poll shows 2/3 of Americans support for Ukraine, and a drastic increase in people thinking more support should be sent

Spoiler:








UKRAINIAN RECRUITMENT


1. Zelenskyy says potentially allowing 25 year olds+ to be mobilized instead of 27+ as part of plan to mobilize 500k+
2. NYT article "‘People Snatchers’: Ukraine’s Recruiters Use Harsh Tactics to Fill Ranks"

Spoiler:


https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/15/w...e=articleShare





UK MOD on Storm Z's lack of proper medical treatment and being forced back to the front without i:


Spoiler:








Sullivan has been getting roasted for this clip about Russian losses in Ukraine:

Spoiler:









Germany to deploy 5000 troops in Lithuania


Spoiler:
Russian Invasion of Ukraine Quote

      
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