Russian Invasion of Ukraine - Page 7 - House of Blogs -- Two Plus Two Poker Forums

Thanks for the updates Blue, they are appreciated.

My general thoughts:

I'm curious who the indirect winners are of the war, in a overarching view, what players are benefiting in terms of infrastructure, oil and economy and who is losing?

40% of Europes oil supply comes from Russia, so it is to say that more or less Europe is dependent on Russia for oil. If something were to happen to Russias ability to export there may be even more serious economic ramifications.

Eurostat claims Russian oil has pretty much been cut out of Europe: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/pr...ddn-20230619-3

Quote:

In March 2023, the total imports of crude oil and petroleum products from Russia into the EU decreased to 1.4 million tonnes (Mt) compared with the average monthly figure of 15.2 Mt in the three years from 2019 to 2022 (-90%).

Russia had been a significant source of oil for the EU, but its war of aggression on Ukraine prompted the Commission to issue a 6th package of EU sanctions (June 2022) which included embargoes on imports of Russian oil into the EU. The ban on imports of seaborne crude oil entered into force on 5 December 2022, while the ban on petroleum products took effect on 5 February 2023.

It's hard to understate how much of a catastrophic blunder Putin's decision to invade was. I think that Taiwan and China will exit this as the biggest indirect winners. Ukraine, a country without a navy, managing to deal significant damage to the Black Sea Fleet is a major development. Taiwan will be able to learn from this and create an effective defense against an invasion fleet for relatively cheap, this is likely to set back any attempt by China to take Taiwan decades.

China has the chance to draw important lessons from Russia's blunder and avoid making a significant blunder of their own. Putin's invasion was largely due to misconceptions from the USA's actions in Afghanistan and Iraq, suggesting that NATO and the West were divided. The invasion of Ukraine has demonstrated that this perception is not accurate: NATO and the West may not have supported previous USA led invasion efforts, but they clearly endorse USA led endeavors aimed at preserving the status quo. China now has an opportunity to prevent a catastrophic mistake in the future. While it may seem optimistic, there's a real possibility that Russia's recent blunder could deter China from contemplating any invasion of Taiwan altogether. This is a major win for China and Taiwan, although maybe only Taiwan will see it that way.

China will also continue to take advantage of Russia's poor state to have a one sided trade relationship.

Both EU and USA win because EU will hopefully begin ramping up their defense spending and stop letting USA subsidize it. EU moving away from Russia will lead to greater self sufficiency as well, making them less reliant on hostile nations. I think globalization will largely be reconsidered after this.

1. GRAPHIC Ukrainian drones striking tanks with UAV screens (cope cages)
2. GRAPHIC Russian BMP panics and crushes its own men
3. Another failed assault
4. Russia using trucks in Avdiivka instead of heavy armor

Spoiler:

1. ISW on Dnipro river crossing (lots of conflicting reports calling this a routine raid, and others saying it's a major development) and Avdiivka:
2. UK MOD on casualties in Avdiivka, and overall in Russia
3. ISW on Russia's recruitment policies

Spoiler:

1. Russian howitzer with anti-UAV screen and camo
2. Pic of T-90 with UAV screen
3. Russian decoy hit by Ukraine
4. Ukrainian humvee with ATGM

Spoiler:

Explosions in Crimea

Spoiler:

1. Inside the Kharkiv postal office when it was hit last night
2. Outside view

Spoiler:

Quote

10-23-2023 , 10:17 AM

#152

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Congress's report on Russia's war crimes, potentially more than 100,000. Covers ICC, crimes against humanity, and genocide:

Quote:

Some Russian officials and other Russians have made repeated statements denying the existence of Ukraine as a
legitimate sovereign state with a distinct Ukrainian people and culture, and have called for or suggested that all or
part of the Ukrainian population must be eliminated, removed, or reeducated in some way.91 These statements,
coupled with reported widespread Russian military attacks on and mistreatment of the Ukrainian civilian
population, have led to discussion about whether Russian officials are committing not only war crimes and crimes
against humanity, but also genocide. A person is subject to individual criminal responsibility generally for crimes
under ICC jurisdiction if that person commits, orders, solicits, induces, assists, or contributes to the commission
of such crimes, and specifically for genocide if that person directly and publicly incites others to commit
genocide.92
Genocide is typically a more difficult crime to prosecute than war crimes and crimes against humanity, because
proving the crime of genocide requires showing special intent: the alleged perpetrator must be shown to have
attempted to carry out atrocities described in the definition of genocide, as well as to have taken those actions
with the specific intent of destroying a protected group. Evidence of genocidal intent and evidence of genocidal
actions might exist alongside each other, but they must be connected to show that specific intent produced that
specific pattern of behavior. Genocide’s narrow and specific definition means that many horrific atrocities fail to
meet the legal standard for genocide. Since the ICC’s establishment in 2002, one case has included a charge of
genocide.93
In the context of Russia’s war against Ukraine, the Russian military has been accused of many actions that might
fall within the definition of genocide, including the forcible transfer of Ukrainian children to Russia. Putin’s
statements and the statements of other Russian officials have been characterized by some observers as reflecting
genocidal intent and planning.94 News and opinion in Russian state-run media, which might be expected to include
only government-approved information, have published statements that call for “liquidation,” “concentration
camps,” and “reeducation” of the Ukrainian population, including children. These statements, if describing Russian
military and government behavior, could be considered evidence of the intent to commit genocide in Ukraine.95
To convict an individual of genocide, prosecutors must show that these statements are linked to specific decisions
made with genocidal intent leading directly to genocidal actions against the Ukrainian population.

https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R47762

WAPO article on CIA working with the GUR, a special intelligence branch in Ukraine formed since the SBU was too infiltrated by Russia. All anonymous sources, but covers CIA's alleged involvement since 2014, training, gathering intel prior to the war, during the war, drone strikes on Moscow, Black Sea Fleet, and assassinations:

Quote:

Many of Ukraine’s clandestine operations have had clear military objectives and contributed to the country’s defense. The car bombing that killed Daria Dugina, however, underscored Ukraine’s embrace of what officials in Kyiv refer to as “liquidations” as a weapon of war. Over the past 20 months, the SBU and its military counterpart, the GUR, have carried out dozens of assassinations against Russian officials in occupied territories, alleged Ukrainian collaborators, military officers behind the front lines and prominent war supporters deep inside Russia. Those killed include a former Russian submarine commander jogging in a park in the southern Russian city of Krasnodar and a militant blogger at a cafe in St. Petersburg, according to Ukrainian and Western officials.

Quote:

“If Ukraine’s intelligence operations become even bolder — targeting Russians in third countries, for example — you could imagine how that might cause rifts with partners and come into serious tension with Ukraine’s broader strategic goals,” the official said. Among those goals is membership in NATO and the European Union.

This article is based on interviews with more than two dozen current and former Ukrainian, U.S. and Western intelligence and security officials who spoke on the condition of anonymity citing security concerns as well as the sensitivity of the subject. The pressure on Kyiv to score victories against Russia and find ways to deter further aggression create incentives to exaggerate the record and capabilities of Ukraine’s services. The Post vetted key details with multiple sources including Western officials with access to independent streams of intelligence.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world...ow-war-russia/

AP article on UK and USA beginning to enforce sanctions:

https://apnews.com/article/russian-o...ccf71c1506fa5a

Quote

10-23-2023 , 11:35 PM

#153

Bluegrassplayer

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1, Ukraine strike on group of Russians at night
2. Various drone strikes against Russia
3. Ukrainian tank firing at a tree line
4. NLAW hits tank followed by cluster munitions hitting troops
5. Russian BMP hits a mine, the BMP traveling with it decides to flee and hits another

Spoiler:

1. Ukraine moves tanks to help Avdiivka
2. Russian gains northeast of Avdiivka
3. Satellite imagery confirms at least 109 heavy equipment losses, likely far more
4. Ukrainian journalist very in depth report on Avdiivka

Spoiler:

More on the drunken Russian commander who sent his men to die attacking Kupiansk:

Spoiler:

Russian glide bombs strike near Kherson, near the Dnipro river crossing

Spoiler:

Quote

10-24-2023 , 11:34 AM

#154

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1. ISW on Russia's rate of artillery fire, domestic production and aid from North Korea
2. UK MOD on Russia's military budget in 2024 and how it will impact inflation
3. NYT article on the three arms Ukraine and Israel both need from USA, and how sending them to Israel will mean giving less to Ukraine
4. FT article on Ukraine attempting to move more arms manufacturing to Ukraine, especially through joint ventures
5. Politico article on the same topic

Spoiler:

1. AP article "Orbán blasts the European Union on the anniversary of Hungary’s 1956 anti-Soviet uprising"
2. EU attacks Orban over handshake with Putin and pro-Kremlin stances
3. Anti-Russian protest in Hungary

Spoiler:

Guardian article on the war crimes in the city of Balakliia: 7 murders, 150+ tortured, and at least one gang rape:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...ussian-torture

NYT article on Russia's over 1000 attacks on health facilities, also covers Gaza and Sudan:

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/21/h...s-doctors.html

Quote

10-24-2023 , 08:42 PM

#155

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1. Ukrainian jet hits something
2. Another Russian TOS destroyed
3. GRAPHIC 11 minute video from Kraken near Kupiansk. The original on telegram is extremely graphic, I'm not sure if this one is, but be careful
4. Another Magyar drone compilation
5. GRAPHIC drone hits a Russian vehicle with soldiers on top

Spoiler:

1. Russian flag on the slag heap near Avdiivka
2. Ukraine hits it was a drone
3. Ukrainian 1st Tank Brigade reinforcing
4. 47th also in the area
5. Video of how Avdiivka looks now

Spoiler:

Initial report that airbase in Crimea was hit, potentially by ATACMS:

Spoiler:

OSINT looking at why he was wrong in his prediction that Russia would not make a major offensive this year:

Spoiler:

Quote

10-25-2023 , 10:20 PM

#156

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1. Ukrainian drone hitting tank
2. Russian tank escorting 2 BMD to abandoned Ukrainian position
3. Russian lancet's improved targeting system
4. HIMARS strike on Russian counterbattery radar
5. Russian POV of being hit by two cluster munitions causing them to retreat
6. Ukraine POV of position hit by artillery

Spoiler:

1. New House Speaker Mike Johnson's voting record regarding Ukraine issues:
2. What he said about Ukraine after becoming Speaker

Spoiler:

Analysis of Russian gains near Adviidka

Spoiler:

Analysis of why there have been so many videos of TOS-1 exploding

Spoiler:

Quote

10-27-2023 , 01:23 AM

#157

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1. "Russian tank runs over multiple mines, is forced to evacuate."
2. GRAPHIC Russian BMP drops troops off for assault
3. GRAPHIC tank runs over mine resulting in huge explosion

Spoiler:

GOP members requesting Ukraine removed from current funding bill:

Spoiler:

1. Journalist in Avdiivka says that despite Russia's high losses they are progressing, and fresh reservers are needed immediately
2. Journalist posts his video from before the full scale invasion showing how much the citizens of Avdiivka do not like Russia
3. ISW on heavy equipment losses in these assaults
4. Kings and Generals video on the first 2 weeks of the Avdiivka assault (awful clickbait title though; situation there is not great)

Spoiler:

NYT article on Hamas and Iran sending delegations to Moscow:

Quote:

The meetings highlighted how, despite a slow start, Russia is trying to retain the role of an important power broker in the Middle East, presenting itself as an alternative platform for possible mediation. They also underscored President Vladimir V. Putin’s vision of international conflicts as an extension of the grand collision between Western states and the rest of the world, with Moscow at the forefront of that fight.

But by conducting a meeting with Hamas members, Moscow also engaged in a balancing act, further risking its already fragile relationship with Israel. On Thursday, the Israeli foreign ministry called Russia’s decision to invite the Hamas delegation “a reprehensible step that gives support to terrorism and legitimacy to the horrific acts of Hamas terrorists.” The ministry called on Russia to immediately expel the Hamas officials.

Quote:

But as the United States engaged in an intense flurry of talks with regional powers, presenting itself as the main power broker in the Middle East, Russia risked its assumed role as one of the major international powers with enough clout to be relevant in all major crises.

Recently, Russia has been trying to catch up. Last week, Mr. Putin called all major leaders in the region, including Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel. Mr. Bogdanov, the Russian deputy foreign minister, met with Hamas leadership in Qatar this week, according to Tass, the Russian state news agency. The meetings in Moscow on Thursday built on these efforts.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/26/w...-android-share

Quote

10-27-2023 , 10:07 PM

#158

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1. UK MOD on Russia not launching their long range cruise missiles in over a month, likely saving to attack Ukrainian infrastructure this winter
2. Germany sends 1.5 billion winter aid package, mostly focused on air defense
3. Russia targets fire stations to prepare for their attack on energy infrastructure
4. NYT article on Ukraine preparing for winter

Quote:

Mr. Zelensky vowed on Wednesday night that Ukraine would hit back at targets inside Russia if Moscow tried once again to plunge his nation into cold and darkness.

“This year we will not only defend ourselves but also respond,” he said.

Unlike a year ago, Kyiv now has a growing fleet of long-range drones and has demonstrated an ability to hit military targets deep inside Russia.

Still, Ukraine remains vastly outgunned when it comes to long-range strike capabilities, and Ukrainian and Western officials have warned that it is likely that the Kremlin is stockpiling missiles to renew its assault on the energy grid as winter begins to bite.

Quote:

A year ago, Russia destroyed roughly 61 percent of Ukraine’s electricity generation capacity, while also targeting its water supply and internet access. Many civilians resorted to candles to light homes and bathed using buckets. The absence of cellphone power and elevators in apartments that stopped working proved an additional challenge.

Quote:

“The problem is not the blackouts,” Mr. Vales said. “The problem is no water, no heating, no cellular.” The couple, who live on the fifth floor of an apartment block in the capital, Kyiv, said the elevator broke, running water stopped and they resorted to using candles, a gas stove, a large power bank and cans to store water. This winter they would be better prepared, Ms. Zubko said.

Spoiler:

1. Analysis of the logistics situation in Avdiivka and why Russia is attacking where they are
2. Heavy equipment losses in this area
3. Video of mice infestation, and a pic of a gigantic rat next to an ak for scale, as rainy season begins in Ukraine (video is Russian, but Ukraine suffers the same problem)
4. Kyiv Independent article on White House claiming they have evidence that Russia is executing soldiers who refuse to run at artillery

Quote:

"We have information that the Russian military has been actually executing soldiers who are refusing to follow orders," Kirby said during the press briefing, according to the Agence France Presse.

"We also have information that Russian commanders are threatening to execute entire units if they seek to retreat from Ukrainian artillery fire."

Spoiler:

1. Second chairman of Lukoil suddenly died (almost certainly killed by Putin)
2. Ukrainian traitor killed in Russia (probably by Ukraine)

Spoiler:

13 minute video on tank use in Russia, compares Oryx loss rate (2.5 a day before Avdiivka, now 5) with reduction seen from storage, loss rates, and reliance on older tanks

Spoiler:

Quote

10-28-2023 , 11:31 PM

#159

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Bluegrassplayer

Second installment of this documentary, covers Ukraine liberating Mala Rohan in one of the first moves to take back Kharkiv, collecting info to determine who was responsible for which war crimes, Kharkiv offensive, and drone usage

Spoiler:

Third installment, dealing with the liberation of one of the first villages in the Kherson counteroffensive, Russian war crimes that were revealed, dealing with collaborators, feelings from those liberated:

Spoiler:

1. Analysis of lack of urgency in DC, and potential lessons learned from Russia's invasion
2. Norweigan defense company tells Norway's parliament that EU's shell production is likely under 500k a year
3. Lithuanian parliament member says only 300k shells delivered to Ukraine, less than N Korea has delivered
4. Bloomberg article on EU falling behind on production
5. Reuters article on NATO urging standards for ammo production

Quote:

NATO is pushing its members to overcome protectionist tendencies and agree on a single standard for artillery ammunition to boost production of urgently needed 155mm shells while driving down prices that have soared since Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

Admiral Rob Bauer, head of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization's military committee, called on member countries to stop protecting national arms makers, whose current business model he compared to that of companies producing printers.

Spoiler:

1. UK MOD on last week in Avdiivka

Spoiler:

1. Reuters article on Zelenskyy saying Ukraine will hit back this winter if energy infrastructure is struck

Quote:

"We're preparing for the terrorists to strike energy infrastructure. This year we will not only defend ourselves, but we will also respond," Zelenskiy wrote on the Telegram messaging app.

Russia, which has called energy infrastructure a legitimate target, conducted regular long-range strikes using strategic bombers and warships last winter to fire cruise missiles from hundreds of miles away with Ukraine largely unable to respond.

Though it still does not have such long-range armaments at its disposal, Ukraine has since increased its strike capabilities significantly, producing drones and obtaining Western weapons like Storm Shadow cruise missiles and long-range ballistic missiles known as ATACMS.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe...gn-2023-10-25/

1. Short Meduza article claiming Putin has ordered Russian state media not to report on crimes committed by soldiers who return from Ukraine

Quote:

In mid-October, for example, the news site Lenta.ru published a story with the headline “Former Wagner fighter returns from special military operation and stabs disabled grandmother over money.” Similar articles have appeared in pro-Kremlin Telegram channels and government-controlled local news outlets.

A source close to the Putin administration told Meduza that the new restrictions are necessary “so that Russians don’t consider fighters to be potential criminals and don’t fear their return.”

The source also said that truly “patriotic journalists” understood that articles about crimes committed by veterans were inappropriate even before the Kremlin intervened. The popular pro-Kremlin tabloids Komsomolskaya Pravda and Moskovsky Komsomolets, for example, haven’t published any stories about the crimes of war participants, though they have devoted large amounts of positive coverage to them. On October 21, for example, Komsomolskaya Pravda published a story about how a “special military operation fighter” surprised his daughter at school with flowers. Another recent story published by the outlet was dedicated to a soldier who returned from Ukraine “with bouquets for his wife and mother.”

https://meduza.io/en/feature/2023/10...on-t-fear-them

2. WAPO article on Russia's shrinking prison population and what information that gives

Quote:

The Russian prison population, estimated at roughly 420,000 before the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, plummeted to a historic low of about 266,000, according to Deputy Justice Minister Vsevolod Vukolov, who disclosed the figure during a panel discussion earlier this month.

Russian forces are now heavily reliant on prisoners plucked from colonies with the promise of pardons, a practice initiated by the late Wagner boss Yevgeniy Prigozhin, who began recruiting convicts to fight in Ukraine a year ago and amassed a 50,000-strong force.

Quote:

“This means that the Defense Ministry has likely recruited around 100,000 people for the war there,” Romanova said, calculating the math aloud. “Starting Feb. 1, the Defense Ministry came to all prisons, and if Prigozhin toured colonies one by one, they recruit in them everywhere at once, practically every day.”

Quote:

Despite the significant drop in Russia’s prison population, the penitentiary service is expanding, and its budget is expected to grow by one-third, according to the draft of Russia’s federal budget for 2024-2026. Romanova noted that the funding will go toward expanding an already ambitious plan to build dozens more detention centers and prison colonies in occupied territories of Ukraine.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world...-convicts-war/

1. Long thread "Randomly violent commanders, no armoured vehicles or artillery support, no training or uniforms, specialist troops being used as assault infantry: an interview with a wounded Russian soldier highights the problems experienced by Russian troops fighting in Ukraine."
2. Long thread "Hundreds of Russian soldiers may have mutinied in recent weeks as the Russian army accumulates huge losses in offensives in several regions of Ukraine. At least 173 men are reported to have been detained for refusing orders, and this may be just the tip of the iceberg."
3. Thread on Redut beginning to recruit women for combat roles

Spoiler:

Quote

10-29-2023 , 09:18 PM

#160

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1. Drone footage of a Russian column's attempt to move near Avdiivka. Cluster munitions go off near the end
2. Another attempted Russian assault
3. GRAPHIC Bodies of Russian soldiers after a failed assault

Spoiler:

1. Allegedly Russians in Dagestan take over an airport in search of a flight from Tel Aviv
2. Running towards the plane
3. Searching hotels
4. Zelenskyy's post on it

Spoiler:

1. Head of Russian forces near Dnipro removed
2. Map of the Ukrainian bridgehead there

Spoiler:

1. I largely disagree with the tweet, but this shows where the two tank Ukrainian tank divisions have been deployed near Avdiivka
2. Russian observer discussing the assaults here
3. Mouse and rat infestation in the trenches here
4. More infestation

Spoiler:

Quote

10-30-2023 , 10:32 PM

#161

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1. Analysis calling the counteroffensive a failure
2. Reuters article Lukashenko calls the war a stalemate and says both sides need to find a peace agreement:

Spoiler:

1. "Russian instructor describes the assault methods of penal Storm Z units in Avdiivka"
2. "Russian "reporter" Filatov, who is present in the Avdiivka frontline, explains what went wrong:"
3. "Russian serviceman Vozhak Z, who is involved in the Avdiivka battle, describes the meat assault strategy and why it was adopted."
4. FT article on the fighting and importance of the town:

Quote:

Particularly worrying is the fact that the Russians have managed to narrow the gap allowing Ukrainian troops to enter and leave the city to just seven kilometres.

“Even further advances of one to two kilometres from the flanks could make it more difficult to resupply the city,” Lee said.

A Ukrainian reserve officer who operates the analytical group Frontelligence Insight said that Russian forces had been using airdropped bombs to severely damage Avdiivka, including its civilian infrastructure.

Konrad Muzyka, director of Rochan Consulting, a Poland-based group that tracks the war, said Russia’s overall objective in Avdiivka was to gain access to the M-04 highway and restore train traffic on the Yasinovata-Donetsk railway line that was severed in 2014. That could allow Russia another supply route for its forces further south.

“Without a properly functioning logistic system, the Russian ability to sustain its forces in the Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia [regions] may face some hurdles during the upcoming winter,” Muzyka added.

Spoiler:

1. New House Speaker says Ukraine is not an urgent priority, plans to split the bill

Spoiler:

1. Russian state propaganda claims Zelenskyy "organized the Jewish pogrom in Dagestan"
2. Video of military dispersing the mob
3. ISW analysis on the situation

Spoiler:

1. ISW on the replacement of the commander of Dnipro area and what could have caused it
2. Russian telegram channels claiming who the new commander is

Spoiler:

Quote

11-01-2023 , 04:18 AM

#162

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1. Precision guided missile hits tank
2. Armored assault being repelled near Avdiivka
3. Cluster munitions
4. Ukrainian unit talking about how counterbattery works

Spoiler:

In depth analysis of North Korean ammunition arriving:

Spoiler:

Two men in the Russian military charged with murdering 9 Ukrainians:

Spoiler:

Quote

11-01-2023 , 07:18 AM

#163

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Propagandist on Russian state media talking about how Ukrainian grandmothers are lucky to be raped by Russians, Ukrainian children should be drowned, and anyone who resists Russia should be shot:

Spoiler:

FT article on Russia's capital restrictions

Quote:

Western companies were presented with two options when selling their assets in foreign currencies: having the money transferred to a highly restricted type “C” account at a Russian bank, or having the proceeds wired to an account abroad — in which case the sum was to be paid in several instalments. Alternatively, the seller could cash out in roubles and receive the entire sum immediately into a regular Russian bank account.

But the first two options were in practice further restricted in terms of volume and frequency of payments abroad, as authorities sought to strong-arm companies into doing business in roubles.

As the rouble continued to drop, Russia’s central bank has raised its interest rate four times since August, bringing it to 15 per cent on Friday. Another move came earlier this month, when Putin signed a decree forcing 43 companies to sell some of their foreign currency revenue on the domestic market.

The central bank did not support that decision, its governor Elvira Nabiullina said on Friday in a rare public display of disagreement with the Kremlin. She called the impact of the measure “insignificant” and “felt only in a short period of time”. The rouble has stabilised at about $0.011 but it remains well below prewar levels and lower than Putin’s targets for a ballooning war budget.

The restrictions on currency repatriation have added to the growing list of criteria deals must meet before they can be approved. These include a “voluntary” contribution to the Russian budget, recently raised from 10 to 15 per cent of the transaction amount, and sale at a discount of at least 50 per cent to the fair value of the assets.

https://www.ft.com/content/e0216489-...9-b2e26b0a9973

CNN article on the family of 9 that was massacred by two Russian soldiers:

https://edition.cnn.com/2023/10/31/e...hnk/index.html

Politico article on Europe trying to get more support from USA for Ukraine:

Quote:

Scott Cullinane, director of government affairs at Razom, an NGO advocating for Ukraine that recently hosted a summit with lawmakers in Congress, said, “there is a sense among some Republican members in particular that the U.S. is carrying the burden alone — and that’s very much not the case. By various metrics, European allies are doing as much, or even more in some senses, than we are in terms of the provision of military equipment and in terms of bearing the cost of imposing sanctions.”

Getting Europeans on American roads might help with that message.

“That doesn’t always come across here in the U.S. and members don’t always fully understand the scale of what’s being done in the EU and U.K., so sharing that data with Congress helps bolster and increase support for assisting Ukraine,” he said.

While some politicians are balking at the cost of helping Ukraine, the public still strongly backs Kyiv.

A nationwide U.S. poll, conducted earlier this month, found that 84 percent said Russian President Vladimir Putin poses a danger to U.S. interests, and almost two-thirds believe withdrawing military support would be seen as a sign of weakness by U.S. allies.

https://www.politico.eu/article/ukra...arm-offensive/

Reuters article on Biden saying he will veto an Israel only bill, and lack of support on both sides for it

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-...te-2023-10-31/

Quote

11-01-2023 , 11:28 PM

#164

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(EXCELLENT READ) Economist article "Ukraine’s top general on the breakthrough he needs to beat Russia":

Quote:

Five months into its counter-offensive, Ukraine has managed to advance by just 17 kilometres. Russia fought for ten months around Bakhmut in the east “to take a town six by six kilometres”. Sharing his first comprehensive assessment of the campaign with The Economist in an interview this week, Ukraine’s commander-in-chief, General Valery Zaluzhny, says the battlefield reminds him of the great conflict of a century ago. “Just like in the first world war we have reached the level of technology that puts us into a stalemate,” he says. The general concludes that it would take a massive technological leap to break the deadlock. “There will most likely be no deep and beautiful breakthrough.”

The course of the counter-offensive has undermined Western hopes that Ukraine could use it to demonstrate that the war is unwinnable–and thus change Vladimir Putin’s calculations, forcing the Russian president to negotiate. It has also undercut General Zaluzhny’s assumption that he could stop Russia by bleeding its troops. “That was my mistake. Russia has lost at least 150,000 dead. In any other country such casualties would have stopped the war.” But not in Russia, where life is cheap and where Mr Putin’s reference points are in the first and second world wars in which Russia lost tens of millions.

An army of Ukraine’s standard ought to have been able to move at a speed of 30km a day as it breached Russian defensive lines. “If you look at nato’s text books and at the maths which we did [in planning the counter-offensive], four months should have been enough time for us to have reached Crimea, to have fought in Crimea, to return from Crimea and to have gone back in and out again,” General Zaluzhny says sardonically. Instead he watched his troops and equipment get stuck in minefields on the approaches to Bakhmut in the east, his Western-supplied equipment getting pummelled by Russian artillery and drones. The same story unfolded on the offensive’s main thrust, in the south, where newly formed and inexperienced brigades, despite being equipped with modern Western kit, immediately ran into trouble.

Quote:

A collapse in Ukrainian morale and Western support is precisely what Mr Putin is counting on. There is no question in General Zaluzhny’s mind that a long war favours Russia, a country with a population three times and an economy ten times the size of Ukraine’s. “Let’s be honest, it’s a feudal state where the cheapest resource is human life. And for us…the most expensive thing we have is our people,” he says. For now, General Zaluzhny says, he has enough soldiers. But the longer the war goes on, the harder it will be to sustain. “We need to look for this solution, we need to find this gunpowder, quickly master it and use it for a speedy victory. Because sooner or later we are going to find that we simply don’t have enough people to fight.”■

1. Helm cam footage of fighting near Bakhmut
2. Russian column destroyed near Kupyansk
3. Dnipro raid footage

Spoiler:

1. Analysis of a HIMARS strike which wounded or killed over 100 volunteer soldiers:
2. Pics of a strike against a Russian fuel train

Spoiler:

1. Pics of Avdiivka losses since Oct 7
2. A look at which of those losses were previously undocumented
3. At least 197 destroyed vehicles (I think this was before the previous two posts)
4. Claim that Ukraine has had a successful counterattack in this area

Spoiler:

1. Crenshaw, Republican HOP, explaining why Ukraine aid is essential
2. McConnell arguing for it
3. Republican ex-governor arguing for it
4. WAPO opinion piece comparing Russia's invasion to the opening stages of WW2
5. Bloomberg article on Biden saying he would veto an Israel only bill:

Spoiler:

AP article South Korea claims over 1 million rounds already sent from North Korea to Russia; Russia denies any munitions have been sent:

Spoiler:

Ukraine claims Russia will force debtors to pay their debt or go to war since they are having trouble recruiting

Spoiler:

Quote

11-03-2023 , 01:03 AM

#165

Bluegrassplayer

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1. Ukraine using HIMARS to strike UAV team
2. Another one

Spoiler:

1. "Ukrainian 47th Mechanised Brigade released footage of destruction of large Russian mechanised assault on Avdiivka which the Russians tried to attack on October 10."
2. Ukrainian journalist on Ukraine not building a rear line of defense, and the Ukrainian armored reinforcements retaking positions

Spoiler:

Reuters article "In a phone call from Russian pranksters, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni spoke of international fatigue with the conflict in Ukraine"

Spoiler:

1. Russian "scalpels", cheaper version of lancets reportedly getting delivered
2. UK MOD on Russian lancets

Spoiler:

23 minute video covering Russia's economy and Putin's actions to attempt to control it:

Spoiler:

Last edited by Bluegrassplayer; 11-03-2023 at 01:11 AM.

Quote

11-03-2023 , 01:53 PM

#166

Henry_Sugar

grinder

Join Date: Feb 2012 Posts: 487

"23 minute video covering Russia's economy and Putin's actions to attempt to control it:"

Where? I can't see it in your post.

Sobol on Putin's relationship with Yeltsin, specifically the Skuratov affair I mentioned a few times in that god awful thread on Russia-Ukraine on the politics page. Doesn't get talked about much by American "experts."

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8o2hw2cli4k

Quote

11-03-2023 , 01:55 PM

#167

Bluegrassplayer

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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jS4FOtzQo1o

Quote

11-05-2023 , 10:45 PM

#168

Bluegrassplayer

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1. Russian ammo depot blowing up in Donetsk
2. Russian tank column, probably from mid October

Spoiler:

1. Reporter claims over 50 Ukrainian soldiers gathered for a military ceremony then struck by artillery
2. Investigation of that commander ordered

Spoiler:

1. Ukraine damages another Russian warship
2. Video of it burning:

Spoiler:

1. Russia launches biggest missile strike in weeks, likely testing Ukrainian air defenses for winter
2. NYT article on it

Spoiler:

Politico article on USA needing to shift focus towards being prepared for another large scale war that they are involved in:

Spoiler:

EU commission proposes 50 billion in aid to Ukraine over the next 4 years:

Spoiler:

Economist article on Russia's defense spending:

Quote:

But the fiscal outlook rests on shaky assumptions. The draft budget assumes that oil and gas revenues will increase by more than a quarter in 2024 to 11.5trn roubles, on the expectation that Brent crude will average $85 per barrel and Urals crude $70. If oil prices drop, revenues will come in below target. The budget also assumes that the rouble will average roughly 90 to the dollar in 2024. If the currency appreciates, however, earnings on oil and gas exports will fall in rouble terms, squeezing government revenues. gdp growth may also fall short of expectations. The finance ministry has pencilled in 2.3% for 2024, more than double the imf’s forecast.

Even if the government can generate enough revenue to finance its war machine, the long-term economic outlook is bleak. A devalued rouble makes imports more expensive, driving up inflation and requiring the central bank to keep interest rates high, stifling investment. The Bank of Russia’s key interest rate is 15%. Although higher defence spending will boost growth in the short term, it will also divert resources from education, health care and other public services while crowding out private investment. Higher taxes will constrain growth further.

Russia is shifting to a long-term war economy. But, according to Mr Rudik, the “drone bakery” is also preparing for peacetime. Tambov’s drones will keep flying, he told Russia-1, to deliver bread to customers.

https://www.economist.com/graphic-de...war-in-ukraine

1. NYT article "Zelensky Rebuke of Top General Signals Rift in Ukrainian Leadership" also discusses the dismissal of General Khorenko who "had scored a string of successes in striking behind enemy lines, including hitting ships and infrastructure of Russia’s Black Sea fleet in Crimea and targets inside Russia."
2. Best take on the state of the war imo

Spoiler:

Ukrainian who had his wife, daughter, and mother in law killed in Odesa missile strike joined Ukrainian military and was killed recently:

Spoiler:

Quote

11-07-2023 , 08:19 PM

#169

Bluegrassplayer

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1. Drone strike on tank
2. View of an armored vehicle driving over a mine from inside
3. Artillery shell hits group of anti tank mines

Spoiler:

1. Map of the Dnipro bridgehead
2. HIMARS strike near the Dnipro bridgehead
3. GRAPHIC Russian assault on Dnipro bridgehead
4. Amphibious vehicle on the left bank

Spoiler:

Ukrainian Major, assistant to Zaluzhny, was given a gift containing grenades on his birthday. Thinking the person who told him they were grenades was joking and they were fake he allowed his son to open the gifts with him (or something along those lines), the son pulled a pin killing the Major and seriously injuring himself:

https://www-rbc-ua.translate.goog/ru..._x_tr_pto=wapp

1. UK MOD on damaged Russian corvette
2. Pics of the ship
3. Short clip showing when it was struck

Spoiler:

Report dispelling a lot of myths regarding aid to Ukraine:

Spoiler:

Article on North Korean aid likely including short range ballistic missiles and Multiple Launch Rocket Systems:

https://www.armyrecognition.com/defe...n_ukraine.html

1. FT article on 127 companies admitting to breaching sanctions with Russia for reduced penalties
2. 24 minute video on Ruble inflation, capital controls and seizing foreign businesses:

Spoiler:

Quote

11-09-2023 , 09:00 PM

#170

Bluegrassplayer

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1. Another TOS hit
2. Abandonded Russian armor near Kupyansk:
3. Editing showing the 3 missiles which struck the Russian ship
4. Ukrainian soldiers walking through ruined treeline
5. Various HIMARS strikes:

Spoiler:

1. (GREAT READ) Analysis of Russia's strategy when seeking frozen conflict
2. Political scientist argues Putin does not want peace
3. CNN article on Zaluzhnyi’s interview and Putin not benefitting from peace
4. Atlantic Council article "Peace is impossible while Vladimir Putin denies Ukraine’s right to exist"
5. Foreign Policy article "The Dream of a European Security Order With Russia Is Dead":

Spoiler:

1. King and General video covering the Dnipro river crossing and Avdiivka during the last two weeks of October
2. Russian telegram saying more troops being moved here and Ukrainian helicopter strike
3. Romanov on Dnipro situaiton:

Spoiler:

Interview with Ukrainian company commander:

Spoiler:

Republican presidential candidate calls Zelenskyy a Nazi:

Spoiler:

Meduza article "Russia, the ‘island of tranquility’ Putin’s new campaign will downplay the war while painting the West as rife with problems, Kremlin insiders say"

https://meduza.io/en/feature/2023/11...of-tranquility

Quote

11-10-2023 , 01:02 AM

#171

Henry_Sugar

grinder

Join Date: Feb 2012 Posts: 487

Anton Shekovtsov (an expert on the European far right) English article "The truth about the other Ukraine political party" Unfortunately, no way for me to read it. Another person very much worth listening to.

https://euobserver.com/opinion/157657

However, there is an interview in Russian with him here that I'm listening to now...

How the Kremlin is spreading advantageous ideas in the United States and Europe about ending the war in Ukraine.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DbUGttgamRU

Last edited by Henry_Sugar; 11-10-2023 at 01:27 AM.

Quote

11-12-2023 , 04:32 AM

#172

Bluegrassplayer

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UK MOD on Russia's continued anti-west propaganda and claims that Ukraine is Russia

Spoiler:

1. Analysis of Avdiivka and Russian gains there (in my opinion it's extremely likely Ukraine loses the town, although it could take a long time)
2. ATGM hits dismounting Russians outside Avdiivka
3. Zaluzhnyi calls the Avdiivka attack disastrous

Spoiler:

1. Zelenskyy on liberating Kherson a year ago
2. Missile attack on Russian column in that area
3. At least 1 helicopter attacking across Dnipro (No idea what Ukraine is planning to do here, I think huge Russian counterattack coming)

Spoiler:

Germany plans to double spending on Ukraine in 2024

Spoiler:

Two drones hitting Russian landing craft:

Spoiler:

Inside a trench in Bakhmut:

Spoiler:

Quote

11-13-2023 , 02:44 AM

#173

Bluegrassplayer

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1. ISW on recent Russian advances in Avdiivka
2. Analysis of Russian gains north of Avdiivka, the importance of Stepove, and supply lines on both sides

Spoiler:

Short Bloomberg article on Germany attempting to double military aid to Ukraine in 2024:

Quote:

Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s governing coalition has agreed to double German military aid for Ukraine next year to €8 billion ($8.6 billion), people familiar with the matter said.

If approved by the parliament in Berlin where Scholz’s parties hold a majority, the boost would lift Germany’s defense spending beyond the 2% of gross domestic product target pledged by all North Atlantic Treaty Organization members, according to the people.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...er-scholz-plan

1. Guardian article "Ex-Nato chief proposes Ukraine joins without Russian-occupied territories"
2. Ukraine on peace with Russia and then joining NATO:

Spoiler:

FT article on USA sanctioning Russia's Arctic LNG 2

Quote:

Arctic LNG 2, located on the Gydan Peninsula in the Arctic allowing it to export to both the European and the Asian market, would be Russia’s third large-scale LNG project, bolstering the Kremlin’s ambition of becoming a leading exporter in the field. At full production, it would account for a fifth of Russia’s target of producing 100mn tonnes of LNG annually by 2030, more than three times the volume the country exports now.

https://www.ft.com/content/68190f21-...d-37f620b4fb3a

Quote

11-13-2023 , 11:02 PM

#174

Bluegrassplayer

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Henry_Sugar

Sobol on Putin's relationship with Yeltsin, specifically the Skuratov affair I mentioned a few times in that god awful thread on Russia-Ukraine on the politics page. Doesn't get talked about much by American "experts."

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8o2hw2cli4k

This was really interesting, thanks. I had heard some of these events mentioned in passing, but never heard them talked about in depth.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Henry_Sugar

This was really interesting as well. I was surprised Medvedchuk was valued so highly by Putin and traded for several Azov commanders, even if they were supposed to sit out the remainder of the war. This does a good job explaining why, even if he's largely lost his influence due to the war.

The part about why Germany, France, and USA are the main targets for disinformation made a ton of sense. I think Russian campaigns in these countries mostly rely on targeting anti-West sentiments, much like Russia does domestically, and is what Putin has found most effective. The campaigns are most successful when they focus on further outraging those who are already upset with the West, and especially their own country.

1. GRAPHIC failed attack on Aavdiivka, probably from October:

https://x.com/UKikaski/status/1724058825370616311

Interview with USA marine fighting for Azov, discusses whether or not there are neo-nazi elements, the differences between the two militaries, the difference between the kinds of conflicts, Ukrainian and Russian tactics:

Spoiler:

Politico article "Ukraine to Putin: You cut our power, we kneecap your biggest economic driver"

Quote:

Ukraine is open to the possibility of attacking Russia’s oil and gas infrastructure if Moscow ramps up its targeting of Ukraine’s electric system this winter, Ukraine Energy Minister German Galushchenko said in an interview.

https://www.politico.com/news/2023/1...ussia-00126592

1. Kasparov on why Russians volunteer for the war, and an article looking at social media for people who have volunteered
2. BBC article on 17 Year old taken from Mariupol and forced to become Russian and the politics around his potential conscription:
3. Guardian article "Ukrainian PoWs being sent to fight their own army, Russian news claims"

Quote:

Russia is sending Ukrainian prisoners of war to the frontlines of their homeland to fight on Moscow’s side in the war, the Russian state news agency RIA Novosti has reported.

Quote:

Experts say such actions would be an apparent violation of the Geneva conventions relating to the treatment of PoWs, which forbids them from being exposed to combat or from working in unhealthy or dangerous conditions – coerced or not.

Spoiler:

Kyiv Independent on the FrankenSAM project:

Spoiler:

Quote

11-14-2023 , 11:32 PM

#175

Bluegrassplayer

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1. Russian telegram discussing Dnipro bridgehead
2. Russian propagandist talking about Dnipro bridgehead
3. Another propagandist

Spoiler:

Ukraine Minister of Defense on the gathering for an award ceremony which resulted in 19 dead Ukrainian soldiers:

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/11/14/7428735/

BBC article "EU set to miss target of a million shell rounds":

Quote:

Ukraine's foreign minister, Dmytro Kuleba, said there was enough political will in the EU to help Ukraine but he said bureaucracy and other obstacles were getting in the way. He highlighted "the pitiful state of the defence industry, the capability to produce enough ammunition, depots, and the ability to make external contracts".

The EU's foreign policy chief, Josep Borrell, blamed a lack of production capacity, suggesting that Europe's defence industry needed to change its priorities from exporting 40% of its products to other countries.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-67413025

1. Russia shells Kherson hospital
2. Russia shells civilian car leaving Kherson hospital, killing a grandfather, injuring the mother of a 2 month old child and injuring the 2 month old:

Spoiler:

1. Zelenskyy on Putin's current overall strategy
2. "Special Military Operation" ended when Russia gave up on Kyiv, the war being fought now is to save face for Putin and help his ego:

Spoiler:

100 ships through Black Sea corridor

Spoiler:

FT article on the labor shortage and brain drain in Russia

Quote:

Russia is short of 500,000-700,000 IT workers, the minister for digital development said in August, while one manager in the telecoms sector said senior professionals were “a rare commodity”. Asked about the tight labour market in general, he said it was a “shitshow, yes”.

Quote:

Even weapons makers are feeling the pinch, despite luring staff from other sectors. Officials say the defence industry is short of 400,000 workers.

Spoiler: