Russian Invasion of Ukraine - Page 6 - House of Blogs -- Two Plus Two Poker Forums

1. Short Bloomberg article on the leak in the pipeline between Finland and Estonia
2. Russian survey vessel was doing something near there during the summer
3. Finnish president says damage is probably from outside activity:

Quote:

A probe into a leak from an undersea gas pipeline between Finland and Estonia is proceeding on the premise that it was a deliberate act of destruction, according to people familiar with the matter.

Officials are expected to give more details on the investigation later on Tuesday. European gas prices rose.

The leak on the gas interconnector has revived concerns about the vulnerability of undersea infrastructure following the blasts on the nearby Nord Stream pipelines from Russia to Germany last year.

Since those attacks, North Atlantic Treaty Organization members have increased monitoring using satellites, aircraft, ships and submarines, with assets in the North Sea and Baltic Sea seen among most sensitive.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...se-of-sabotage

Spoiler:

1. Long thread on Lieutenant General Denis Lyamin being promoted to Chief of Staff of the Central Military District less than three months after replacing Major General Ivan Popov
2. Millblogger Romanov still bringing up the same issue as Popov:

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1...437664078.html

Spoiler:

Business Insider article on Russia's use of glide bombs:

https://www.businessinsider.com/russ...-night-2023-10

Quote:

Russia is pounding Ukraine with powerful glide bombs, hitting a single Ukrainian region with 40 of the weapons in one night this week, Hans Petter Midttun, a nonresident fellow at the Centre of Defence Strategies, wrote for the Euromaidan Press.

Quote:

To make the weapons, Russia is equipping old Soviet bombs like the FAB-500, which it has a large supply of, with a simple satellite guidance system and "wings," Insider previously reported. It then fires them from fighter jets like the Su-34 and Su-35.

Quote:

Much of the damage inflicted by these bombs has been on civilian infrastructure and many casualties have been civilians, which has "huge psychological effects" on the population, he said.

Quote

10-10-2023 , 10:30 PM

#127

Bluegrassplayer

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1. Thread on "today's large scale Russian attack on the Avdiivka front":
2. Millblogger Rybar's claims on how the attack would go
3. ISW on the "localized offensive operations":

Spoiler:

UK MOD on why Putin's election is important even if it's rigged and what it means regarding mobilization:

Spoiler:

EuroNews on the violent crimes committed by ex-Wagnerites not just in Russia but also neighboring countries:

Quote:

Channelling criminals into a savage war as no more than cannon fodder and then releasing them back into society reflects the Kremin's contempt for "ordinary members of the public", argues Walker.

"It says very clearly they have little regard for the lives of the people they send to war, be they convicted criminals or ordinary young men, usually from poorer layers of society," he told Euronews. "And they don't care much for the well-being of society either".

https://www.euronews.com/2023/10/10/...d-the-caucasus

Long thread on Russia's strategy of putting military targets in the middle of residential areas then accusing Ukraine of attacking civilians:

Spoiler:

1. Reuters on Germany's most recent aid package
2. What is included
3. Rheinmetall gets additional order for 155mm rounds :

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe...ln-2023-10-10/

Spoiler:

New Yorker article on national-security advisor Jake Sullivan, extremely long but good. Took too long to get into Ukraine imo, but once it did it's fascinating and the part about him being accused of not planning for the worst case scenario in the Afghanistan withdrawal clearly plays a key role in his decision making. I especially liked the bit about Vilnius since it was easy to see all of the major things happening, but none of the behind the scenes details laid out in the article which led to lots of speculation:

Quote:

But on the morning of Tuesday, July 11th, when leaders were to formally gather in Vilnius, Sullivan sensed trouble during a phone call with Yermak, the Ukrainian chief of staff. Sullivan turned beet red as Yermak told him that the hard-fought language in the communiqué was not enough. After Yermak informed Sullivan that he and Zelensky would soon land in Vilnius and hoped to negotiate final wording, Sullivan responded sharply: this was nato’s communiqué, he said, not Ukraine’s.

Things soon got worse. Zelensky sent out a tweet blasting the draft for placing “unprecedented and absurd” conditions on Ukraine. He also suggested that the allies were holding out to use Ukraine’s nato status as a bargaining chip in future negotiations with Russia. Sullivan, who was stunned by the tone of the tweet, left a meeting that Biden was holding with a bipartisan group of senators to call Yermak again. “We literally did this sentence to make them happy,” a senior U.S. official recalled of the moment. Maybe, Sullivan said to Biden, they should remove or replace the carefully negotiated wording. What was the point if the Ukrainians didn’t like it? “I was, like, this whole summit’s going to come crashing down,” the senior diplomatic source said. “I don’t think I’ve ever seen Jake that angry.”

By that evening, after hours of talks, both Biden and Emmanuel Macron, the French President, among others, objected to making any revisions, and the statement was finalized exactly as it had been before the hours of embarrassingly public discord. For a summit meant to project “unity and zeal” on Ukraine’s behalf, as Sullivan had put it days earlier, it was a mess. The senior European official said the dustup was consistent with the “track record of President Zelensky asking for things which he knows he cannot get,” thus “creating his own disappointment.”

The Americans, the senior Administration official told me, went back to the Ukrainians with one last pitch: “Guys, the play’s the same, and it’s a good one for you,” with a promise of nato membership in the future and bilateral security commitments in the meantime. Zelensky got the message. The next day, he appeared alongside Biden and praised the summit as a “success” for Ukraine. Their meeting, he tweeted, was “meaningful” and “powerful.”

Relieved, Sullivan decided to make an appearance at a public forum on the sidelines of the nato event. Daria Kaleniuk, one of Ukraine’s best-known anti-corruption activists, rose to ask him a question. Wearing a dusty-pink blazer over a black T-shirt emblazoned with the slogan “#Ukraine nato now,” she confronted Sullivan in starkly personal terms. She had left her eleven-year-old son behind in Kyiv, “sleeping in the corridor because of the air raids,” she said. “Jake, please advise me, what should I tell my son?” Was Biden refusing to allow Ukraine to join nato “because he is afraid of Russia”? Or because he was engaged in “back-channel communications with the Kremlin,” preparing to sell out Ukraine to Putin?

Sullivan, looking exhausted, began by talking about the “bravery and courage” of the Ukrainians and how the United States would be there for them “as long as it takes.” But his tone sharpened as he responded to Kaleniuk’s speculation about Biden’s motives, which he called “unfounded and unjustified” and “a lot of conspiracy theorizing that simply is not based on any reality whatsoever.” What’s more, he added, “I think the American people do deserve a degree of gratitude” for their support of Ukraine.

An audience member told me that there were audible gasps in the room—you don’t tell a mother who’s left her child sheltering from Russian bombs to express more gratitude. Hours later, Sullivan ran into Oleksiy Goncharenko, a member of Ukraine’s parliament, and heatedly complained about the “unfair and unfounded” question.

https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2...rial-by-combat

Last edited by Bluegrassplayer; 10-10-2023 at 10:46 PM.

Quote

10-11-2023 , 03:42 AM

#128

Henry_Sugar

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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nEBUhdC4pyY

Discussion about the crisis that Russia's domestic oil market is experiencing and not only related to the war, leading to a ban in fuel exports, as well as other topics including the crafty ways the gov makes its revenue look stronger than theyÂ’re likely to be, that theyÂ’re learning to overcome the effect of the sanctions little by little. Also discussed that sanctions on Russian LNG wouldn't make sense since multinational corporations have contracts (France, China) with the Yamal project and Russia doesn't see profits from it, and the expert maintains that Nord Stream was carried out by Gazprom, as other Russian experts on their oil sector have said over and over again.

The oil market within the country is facing shortages everywhere, including Crimea, the Moscow area, the southern regions near the front that are major agricultural harvest areas, even places where Rosneft has refineries, such as Samara and Khabarovsk in the far east.

To fund the war, they lifted the "damper" compensation by 50% to oil companies that provided low domestic prices. That and the rise in taxes, excise taxes made the domestic oil trade unprofitable. The shortage leads to higher prices, gas suppliers can't sell at a profit, stations close, Kremlin intervenes again, banning exports. Oil production is cut. The export ban leadsRussian Oil companies turn to their long history of black market schemes, selling to Eurasian Economic partners (Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan) who can export. The ban on exports was recently temporarily lifted, but the weak Ruble will keep domestic prices high.

Quote

10-11-2023 , 10:39 AM

#129

Bluegrassplayer

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Thanks for posting, and thanks for the summary. I'll watch it later, but having the summary helps a ton especially when the translation isn't great. It's interesting that they think Gazprom was responsible for Nordstream, I had read that before I didn't follow it enough to have a real opinion on it so I just went with the USA analysis that it was likely Ukraine.

I was wondering about domestic prices and shortages. I've seen several threads on that but the people reporting on it were clearly not experts so hearing an expert's analysis is great. Thanks again for posting.

1. Coincidentally DW released a documentary on pipelines today. Overall inconclusive, but it lays out a lot of the evidence and oddities in figuring out who was responsible
2. WSJ on cracking down on oil sanctions

Quote:

Nevertheless, much of its crude and petroleum products are still sold with Western help. Of the 4.44 billion euros, equivalent to around $4.68 billion, in fossil fuels that Russia exported in the week ending Oct. 1, 37% moved on ships owned or insured by companies in Europe or the Group of Seven advanced democracies, according to analysis by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air think tank.

As the price of Russia’s benchmark crude, Urals, climbed above $60 this summer, analysts and traders started to wonder when—or if—the U.S. would step in. The U.S. and its allies have yet to penalize a firm publicly for breaching the sanctions, which requires banks, insurers and traders to promise that they are handling oil at or below the price cap, to the best of their knowledge. Some analysts doubted whether many Western firms were actually complying with the rules if the average price was well above $60.

Quote:

U.S. officials have worried about penalizing the industry too sharply, cutting off a key supplier and exacerbating inflation globally. With enforcement actions, the U.S. will face the delicate task of stopping evasion while not spooking the Western firms from still scooping up Russian oil.

https://www.wsj.com/finance/commodit...asion-b1781e39

Spoiler:

1. ISW on fighting near Bakhmut and status of Russian troops there:
2. ISW on the operation near Avdiivka
3. UK MOD on mental healthy crisis among Russian troopcs:

Spoiler:

Fake BBC video to spread Russian propaganda:

Spoiler:

Ukraine claims that Lavrov's statement that Russia provided a registry of children kidnapped from Ukraine is false:

https://www.ukrinform.ua/rubric-soci...a-lubinec.html

NYT article on elite Ukrainian forces in Marinka, near Bakhmut. Lots of pictures and solid read:

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/11/w...-soldiers.html

Quote

10-11-2023 , 03:50 PM

#130

Henry_Sugar

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Join Date: Feb 2012 Posts: 487

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bluegrassplayer

Spoiler:

Krutikhin talked about that. The endless sanctions don't have enough people to administer and they and punishments aren't happening for violations. Greek ships are transporting Russian crude overseas. Russia's oil trade with China is not sanctioned in the Far East, ESPO and Sokhol.

Quote

10-11-2023 , 09:49 PM

#131

Bluegrassplayer

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1. Drone footage of Ukrainian forces striking the Russian column advancing on Avdiivka
2. Pics of the aftermath
3. Video of a different column attempting to advance while Ukrainian artillery hits them
4. Visually confirmed losses on the day of the attack
5. More footage
6 Moore footage, a lot in comments as well
7. Long thread on the failed attack, Russia's biggest failed attack since May 2022, lots of footage
8. ISW on the assault and why it is likely to fail to accomplish its goal of forcing Ukraine to commit more troops to the area:

Spoiler:

1. Zelenskyy on Belgium giving frozen Russian assets to Ukraine
2. Very short Pravda article on the transfer
3. Results of Ramstein

Spoiler:

1. Russian drone attack on Su-25
2. Why it is important, what the increased range of the drone means
3. Forbes article on it:

Spoiler:

Quote

10-12-2023 , 10:19 AM

#132

Bluegrassplayer

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Henry_Sugar

That was great, thanks for sharing and the summary. He really laid out the domestic fuel problem in Russia well, I had not understood it before.

When I read the WSJ article I was not expecting "cutting down on sanctions" to potentially mean Greek shipping companies. Pretty crazy how they're getting the oil out.

The part around 22 minutes where he explains that China pays in Yuan, India in Rupees, but Russia can't actually use that money because it's not USD went over my head. Do you know what he was talking about there?

1. In depth look at Avdiivka
2. Deep State on Russia's attempted "motorcycle assault"
3. Yesterday's losses:

Spoiler:

AP article "Belarus Red Cross mulls call for ouster of its chief as authorities show Ukrainian kids to diplomats":

Quote:

The Belarus Red Cross says it is examining a call by the international Red Cross to fire its chief, who made headlines earlier this year for bragging that his organization was ferrying children from Russian-occupied Ukraine to Belarus.
[...]

But a report aired in July by state Belarus 1 TV channel showed Shautsou visiting Lysychansk and saying the Belarus Red Cross was taking “an active part” in the transfers, which he said were designed for “health improvement” purposes.

The International Red Cross said Wednesday its board has given the Belarus chapter until Nov. 30 to dismiss Shautsou or else it will suspend the branch and recommend that all affiliates halt new partnerships and funding for it.

[...]

“The main purpose of sending these children to Belarus is their ideological indoctrination in accordance with the narratives of the ‘Russian world,’” he said.

Latushka said at least 2,100 Ukrainian children aged 6 to 15 years were transferred from over a dozen Ukrainian cities to Belarus between September 2022 and May of this year.

https://apnews.com/article/red-cross...9b77e57292ad1b

1. Pravda article "Belarus holds meeting between foreign diplomats and children deported from Ukraine"
2. Summary of the event:

Quote:

Rashevska reported that Karina Bagieva, First Secretary of the Russian embassy in Belarus, confirmed that the Russian citizenship and the learning process which does not allow preserving national identity are being forced upon the children.

[...]

Earlier, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine reported that Belarus intended to organise the meeting of foreign diplomats with Ukrainian children deported from the temporarily Russia-occupied cities of Lysychansk and Sievierodonetsk. The goal of the event is legalisation of illegal deportation of Ukrainian children from the temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine.

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/10/6/7423014/

Spoiler:

WSJ article on Ukraine naming two brothers as suspects for being informants for the Hroza missile strike that killed 52 (seems like there was at least one other person involved, or this is just pointing the finger at two brothers who terrorized the village, but still interesting):

Quote:

Lyudmyla Pletinka said the brothers helped the Russians identify villagers, including her son, who had served in the Ukrainian army. In July last year, she said, the Mamon brothers showed up at their house with Russian soldiers, looking for her son. The brothers put a gun to her husband’s head and threatened to shoot him, she said. But neither Pletinka nor her husband knew where their son was. Eventually the Russians left, but they later located the Pletinkas’ son and detained him.

Vasyl Pletinka, Lyudmyla’s husband, said the Mamon brothers beat and tortured their son.

Quote:

Russian officials initially denied striking the village and said that they don’t target civilians. Russia’s ambassador to the United Nations, Vasily Nebenzya, later claimed that “neo-Nazis” and military-age men were at the wake. Ukrainian officials say the dead included a child.

Spoiler:

WAPO article on potentially using seized Russian assets to help Ukraine:

Quote:

U.S. officials are adamant that Russian bank reserves are not a substitute for new emergency military and economic aid from Washington, which Ukraine needs to survive the next several months of the war. Even the most aggressive and optimistic advocates for redirecting the bank holdings believe it would take months — if not more than a year — for the money to reach Kyiv. And most of Russia’s reserves by far are held in Europe, where central bankers have expressed strong reservations about the impact of a seizure on their economies. If Washington acted alone, it could only make use of the estimated $5 billion held in the United States — a tiny share of the $300 billion of Russian money held around the world.

Quote:

On Wednesday, the Belgian government announced the creation of a $1.8 billion fund for Ukraine paid for by tax revenue from profits generated on seized Russian central bank assets. Most of the Russian money held in Europe is at the Belgian-based clearinghouse Euroclear. (The money will be used to help Ukraine with military support, civilian aid and refugee assistance, a government spokesman said.)

Quote:

“This is the rare case where the politically expedient thing is also the right thing to do,” Summers said. “Using Russian reserves rather than American taxpayer money is the right thing on economic grounds and moral grounds. It is surely better politics, and without accessing Russian resources, it’s inevitable that support for Ukraine will cannibalize support for other priorities like climate change, pandemic prevention and Africa.”

https://www.washingtonpost.com/busin...ar-chest-kyiv/

A Russian woman travels to Kyiv and conducts an interview where she talks about:

Her husband who was mobilized

The bureaucracy involved with getting him labeled a POW after he was captured, and how he was immediately labeled one after she posted about it publicly

Failures to have POW exchanges and getting pre written responses, how the POW exchanges are done 45 at a time and mostly for show, total disregard for POWs and dead

Teaming up with mothers and wives to post videos to try to get something done for the POWs

The wife of a friend of her husband’s was complaining about being used as cannon fodder. She told the wife about the “I want to surrender” program. The wife wrote the FSB that she was Ukrainian spy and she was interrogated.

She contacted a support group in Ukraine about traveling to Ukraine to find her husband. She contacted lawyers who all told her that if she travels to Ukraine then her husband would be blackmailed and sent back to war and she would be put in jail, so if she goes she should not return to Russia.

She bought a ticket to Turkey, told her friends she was going on vacation, and then fled with her children and asked for political asylum in Ukraine.

Discusses the Russian propaganda, blatant lies like the bodies at Bucha were mannequins or that Ukraine is launching missiles at itself

Really fascinating stuff. Twice the two of them joke about the "Bandera Boys" giving her trouble. I wish I could understand the context for this joke, because it's clear they think it's a ridiculous notion but I'm unsure if it's because the "Bandera Boys" don't really exist, or if they're actually not that bad. Anyways it's an interesting interview, I enjoy seeing Russians not directly participating in the war talk about how they view the war because it's clear they get such a warped version of it. A warning to anyone who looks at this guy's channel: it's mostly interviews with POWs except for this interview and the interview with the guy who flew the helicopter to Ukraine. The Red Cross watches all of the interviews, but at times it's pretty clear this guy would be smacking some of the POWs if the Red Cross wasn't around.

Spoiler:

Quote

10-12-2023 , 11:37 PM

#133

Bluegrassplayer

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1. Ukraine destroys bridge important for the logistics of Russia's attack on Avdiivka
2. Russia uses incendiary munitions
3. Ukraine hits another column heading to Avdiivka
4. Russian telegram telling Russian propagandists to shut up about having taken the village
5. Visual confirmation of 45+ destroyed Russian vehicles
6. Ukrainian soldier claims Russians are shooting their own Storm Z units that flee
7. ISW revises initial assessment that this was a fixing operation; not encircled; lost a BTG's worth of heavy equipment so far
8. Rob Lee on how the amount of forces being deployed here suggests Russia is confident in being able to hold their defenses
9 GRAPHIC video of Ukrainian artillery striking Russian soldiers including a cluster bomblet hitting an ammo dump:

Spoiler:

More ships beginning to use Ukraine's humanitarian corridor in the Black Sea

Spoiler:

Euromaidan article on USA imposing sanctions on two companies from Turkey and UAE who transported oil above the price cap:

Spoiler:

Hour long Perdun video on the counteroffensive, minute 33 until 38 give a summary of the current Russian strategy:

Spoiler:

Quote

10-13-2023 , 09:37 AM

#134

Bluegrassplayer

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1. Another view of the incendiaries being launched
2. Various FPV and UAV strikes

Spoiler:

1. Zelenskyy on this winter being harder than last year because Russia will hit energy infrastructure again
2. UK MOD on how Russia has not fired long range missiles in 21 days. It is believed that they are saving up for this winter to make an especially devastating attack on energy infrastructure

Spoiler:

1. Russian commander hitting a soldier with a stick
2. Long thread: "Russia's Southern Military District is witnessing an explosion of murders committed by serving soldiers."

Quote:

"There is no respect in society, no recognition of their 'merits'. They went to the territory of a foreign country under brave slogans about protecting peaceful people, who are now in no hurry thank them. This gives rise to anger, which spills out."

Quote:

"Now we are only talking about crimes committed by active servicemen: during mobilisation it is practically impossible to leave the army – in time it will be the time of those who were demobilised and abandoned by the state to their fate."

Spoiler:

1. Graph showing trade between China and Russia since 2007
2. FT article on Russia using capital controls:

[QUOTE]The rouble climbed by about 4 per cent against the dollar on Thursday after the Kremlin reintroduced capital controls for the first time since the aftermath of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine last year.

Vladimir Putin, Russia’s president, signed a decree late on Wednesday forcing 43 companies, including energy, metals and agriculture exporters, to sell some of their foreign currency revenue on the domestic market to prop up the slumping rouble.
[/QUOTE}

Spoiler:

1. Kasparov on Russia and Iran have "bundled" to declare war on the modern war:
2. Short Kyiv Independent on USA's plan to "bundle" Taiwan, Ukraine and Israel package:

Spoiler:

Short Kyiv Post article on Ukraine attempting to produce its own long range missiles:

https://www.kyivpost.com/post/22683

Politico article on how Americans view support going towards Ukraine:

https://www.politico.eu/article/desp...pport-ukraine/

Quote:

A new survey conducted by the Chicago Council on Global Affairs shows that nearly two-thirds of those polled (63 percent) support sending additional arms and military supplies to Ukraine, and 61 percent support providing economic assistance.

Quote:

Nor are Americans under any illusion as to how long this war is likely to last. According to the survey, only 14 percent believe it will be over within a year, with the remainder thinking it will continue for over a year (34 percent), between two to five years (34 percent), or five years or more (15 percent).

Last edited by Bluegrassplayer; 10-13-2023 at 10:00 AM.

Quote

10-14-2023 , 02:52 AM

#135

Bluegrassplayer

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1. GRAPHIC Russian BMP attempts to avoid ATGM, runs over Russian soldier and is then hit
2. GRAPHIC Ukrainian drone hits Russian armored personnel carrier bringing reinforcements (skip the tweet itself, just watch the two videos)
3. ISW on Russia restricting information in this area
4. Russian volunteer asking for more body bags to be sent to help with the large amount of Russian corpses (fake?)
5. Russian ultranationalist asking doctors to come down to help with the soldiers in the hospitals there
6. Video showing the majority of the large Russian column previously shown stuck on the road destroyed:

Spoiler:

More than 300 containers from North Korea delivered to Russia:

Spoiler:

1. Long thread on Russia's growing cost of paying for deceased soldiers, which is why they prefer to declare soldiers missing rather than dead
2. Long thread on relatives of a dead soldier burying a different soldier's body in an attempt to claim their inheritance, despite objections from his friends

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1...624406091.html

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1...240131732.html

Last edited by Bluegrassplayer; 10-14-2023 at 03:05 AM.

Quote

10-14-2023 , 10:16 PM

#136

Bluegrassplayer

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1. Ukraine hits another thermobaric launcher
2. Entire trench surrenders near Robotyne
3. UAVs exploding near Sochi:

Spoiler:

1. Russian telegram on why the progress with the Avdiivka offensive has been so poor
2. Another take on why it is proceeding the way it is
3. ISW on Ukrainian and USA officials claiming they knew about the offensive ahead of time
4. Early assessment of the offensive, its goals, why it was done, and why it might still succeed
5. There's another telegram post which is great and likely extremely accurate, but I can't find it translated anywhere. It was summed up on a 3 hour stream recently and I included my interpretation in the spoiler:

Spoiler:

1. UK MOD on Russia' Black Sea Fleet
2. Ukraine damages 2 or 3 more ships, one allegedly with a completely underwater drone

Spoiler:

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bluegrassplayer

In depth thread on trench system past Robotyne. Includes a video showing how they had to use artillery on the treeline with the trenches before approaching. Several of the bombs are clearly cluster munitions which means they'd have to walk assault near their potentially unspent bomblets:

Spoiler:

Translated version (it was resposted in Ukrainian yesterday too, not sure if anything was added):

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1...189794868.html

WSJ article on Garantex, a Russian crypto exchange, used by Russians to evade sanctions:

https://www.wsj.com/finance/currenci...tions-a3648357

Quote

10-15-2023 , 07:53 PM

#137

Bluegrassplayer

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1. Long thread claiming the assault on Avdiivka is a blunder, mostly done for propaganda purposes:
2. Russian propaganda goalpost shifting
3. GRAPHIC compilation of various losses
4. Short PBS article on Russia's attacks in various places and their propaganda regarding them:

Quote:

Barabash’s comments came after Russia’s U.N. ambassador, Vassily Nebenzia, told a U.N. Security Council meeting on Friday that the intensified attacks in the east amounted to a new stage in Moscow’s campaign in Ukraine.

“Russian troops have, for several days now, switched over to active combat action practically throughout the entire front line. … The so-called Ukrainian counteroffensive can therefore be considered finished,” he said.

Spoiler:

1. Graph showing Ukraine firing more artillery rounds than Russia
2. Argument that Russia is probably still firing more
3. Analysis for why more ammo for Russia (from N Korea) means very little at the moment
4. Telegraph article on Ukrainian howitzers now having enough ammunition:

Quote:

But because of the shortage of Nato-issue 105mm shells, they have had to fall back on their existing Soviet-era howitzers instead. Among them is an ancient 85mm D-44, a Soviet gun used in the final clashes of World War II.

“It’s almost like a museum [piece], but we still use it, as at least we have more shells for it,” Miron said.

“This is a critical situation as this is an artillery war – not having enough shells costs our own soldiers’ lives.”

His comments highlight a long-standing complaint from Ukraine that it is being outgunned in terms of artillery power by Russia, which uses up to 20,000 artillery shells a day on the battlefield. A single Ukrainian field gun operator can easily use 100-plus shells in a day – if the supplies are available.

Spoiler:

1. Drunk officer orders Russians to attack at Kupiansk, resulting in 300 dead. Survivors revolt and are held in torture facility
2. Mobilized fighters complain they are being forced to attack with little chance of success and this task should be left to professional soldiers:

Spoiler:

WSJ article on the recent lack of communication between Israel and Putin:

https://wsj.com/world/hamas-attack-e...srael-b5745a20

WAPO article on Russia already retelling the history of their invasion of Ukraine:

Quote:

Students in Russian classrooms will be told that Ukraine is a “neo-Nazi” state led by a “junta” that came to power in a “military coup” in 2014, and that “any dissent in Ukraine is brutally suppressed, and the opposition is banned.” It was Ukraine that started this war, the textbook claims — while Russian soldiers are now “fighting shoulder to shoulder for goodness and the truth.” (I am not joking — this is an actual phrase from the textbook.) “The special military operation has consolidated our society,” the textbook asserts, using the official propaganda euphemism for the Ukraine war. Needless to say, it neglects to mention that opposition to the war is punished by long prison sentences — and that, despite this threat, thousands of Russians have publicly protested against it.

Spoiler:

Quote

10-16-2023 , 10:21 PM

#138

Bluegrassplayer

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1. GRAPHIC Russian soldiers running straight into artillery
2. Video and pic of aftermath of another Russian convoy
3. Strike on Russian UAV team

Spoiler:

Reuters 78 pictures showing the first 600 days of the war

https://www.reuters.com/pictures/pic...ne-2023-10-15/

1. Analysis of Avdiivka and evidence of Russian failure to hold their initial gains along the north side
2. Russian propagandist on why not to expect many Russian offensive operations this winter, and the reasons are not due to the weather (actually the problems listed are really accurate)
3. Russian telegram saying they are stuck

Spoiler:

1. RUSI article on North Korean munitions arriving
2. DW article focusing more on the relationship between N Korea and Russia

RUSI article:

Quote:

Having prepared for a massive conventional war with South Korea for decades, North Korea’s supplying of significant quantities of munitions to Moscow will have profound consequences for the war in Ukraine. For the Russians, a major North Korean supply line will alleviate shortages of munitions for what has proven to be an ordinance-hungry conflict and enable the Russian armed forces to feed their frontline troops as they try to repel a Ukrainian counteroffensive. Ukraine and its supporters will also have to contend with this new reality, potentially escalating their support by providing additional quantities of weapons and munitions to Ukraine's defenders.

But the impact will be felt much further than the battlefield in Ukraine. The sale of such quantities of munitions will fill the coffers of the cash-strapped regime in Pyongyang, which has traditionally used the proceeds of arms deliveries to develop its own nuclear and ballistic missile programme in violation of UN sanctions. Moreover, in addition to the pecuniary benefits, North Korea may seek other assistance from Russia in return for its support, including the provision of missile and other advanced military technologies.

Spoiler:

1. Kremlin reiterates they have forcefully deported millions of Ukrainians, including children
2. Qatar mediating the return of 4 children

Spoiler:

Reuters on India having to settle Russian oil transactions in yuan:

https://www.reuters.com/markets/comm...ay-2023-10-16/

Quote

10-17-2023 , 08:50 AM

#139

Bluegrassplayer

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Join Date: Sep 2007 Posts: 38,806

1. Ukraine MOD claims they had a successful strike against Russian airfield
2. Russian telegram claiming huge losses at airfield overnight, speculation of ATACMS
3. Video of the airfield burning
4. Analysis and satellite images:

Spoiler:

1. Drone hits air defense
2. pic of 70 year old armored personel carrier that flipped over after hitting a mine
3. Ukrainian air defense hits a drone:

Spoiler:

1. Long thread on Russian convicts being coerced into second military contracts with threats of military prison or execution
2. UK MOD on Redut, a fake Russian PMC to trick people into signing up for the war
3. Article on how Redut works:

Spoiler:

Quote

10-17-2023 , 08:19 PM

#140

Bluegrassplayer

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1. 5 minute video from the airfield showing where the ATACMS hit
2. Launching the missiles
3. White House announces what they sent, and probably won't send, regarding ATACMs
4. CNN article on sending the missiles without announcing them:

Quote:

A US official said the version of the missiles the US provided to Ukraine, which carry cluster munitions instead of unitary warheads, are not in the the stockpiles the Pentagon would draw from if the US became directly involved in a war, so there were no concerns that transferring them would hinder US military readiness. National security adviser Jake Sullivan first asked the NSC in mid-July, as UkraineÂ’s counteroffensive appeared to be moving more slowly than anticipated, to work with the Pentagon to provide an updated memo on ATACMS options that assessed the potential impacts on US military readiness, the official said.

The official said the missiles were provided Â“in recent days,Â” and that Biden signed off on their transfer in mid-September. In a meeting with Zelensky at the White House on September 21, Biden told Zelensky about his decision to send this particular variant of the ATACMS, known as APAM or anti-personnel/anti-materiel.

The US decided to send them quietly because they wanted to take the Russians by surprise, especially after months of public back-and-forth over whether Biden would agree to send the weapons, an official said. The Russians are aware of the range of the missiles and the US was concerned they would move equipment and weapons out of reach before the missiles could be used, the official said.

Spoiler:

All 31 Abrams are now in Ukraine

Spoiler:

Quote

10-18-2023 , 12:39 AM

#141

Henry_Sugar

grinder

Join Date: Feb 2012 Posts: 487

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bluegrassplayer

I'm not an economist (and Russian is not my native language, I just studied it for a long time), but since Russia ditched the dollar in regards to trade, they prefer the Yuan in their commodities market and then with India, they've got the problem with the Rupee. Russia has billions of Rupees they can't do anything with since they've got a trade imbalance with India. India doesn't make anything Russia wants. And nobody has any need for Rupees. I don't know if they've figured out how to convert those Rupees yet.

So the host asked Krutikhin for his comments on the government's 2024 budget outlook and revenue, which projects an increase by more than 20% and specifically, a 25% increase in oil and gas revenue compared to 2023. Krutikhin rhetorically asked how are they counting those Rubles, i.e. what is the purchasing power of those Rubles in relation to currencies aside from the dollar., which they aren't doing. They're recalculating in dollars because it makes the prognostications look better. It's all about the exchange rates, which are highly disadvantageous for Russia now, but the 2024 projections don't take that into account.

Thomas Graham wrote a new book about the US's future relations with Russia. I can't wait to read it. There aren't too many people more knowledgeable about Russia than him.

Quote

10-18-2023 , 10:16 AM

#142

Bluegrassplayer

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Henry: Thanks, that clears up a lot.

1. Drone tracks Russian Grads for a HIMARS strike as they're reloading
2. Overnight dronestrike on Russian airfield
3. Drone strikes:

Spoiler:

Rybar claims Ukrainian marines crossed the Dnipro are took a village:

Spoiler:

Long thread on Russian convict "ghost soldiers", called this because of the lack of documentation provided to them to prove their contracts or that they've been killed:

Quote:

"We were told that there were “two Ukrainians” there, but the fact that there was a tank rolling around and shooting, a mortar working, two machine gunners sitting there, attacking us like chickens... For them, none of this happened."

"So we almost immediately began to understand that we were simply ****ed."

Quote:

Nemchinov and Strauch both died where they fell. Their bodies were later spotted from the air by a Russian drone, but they were both officially recorded as 'missing', like so many of the other Russian dead.

Because they had never received documentation confirming their service in Ukraine, the two men's relatives did not receive any compensation, nor any salaries for their service. Six months on, they are still trying, without success, to have the bodies returned for burial.

Spoiler:

1. Russian KA-52 firing a LMUR (15km range ATGM)
2. Videos of where it struck

Spoiler:

CSIS.org's excellent analysis of the counteroffensive with some great maps and graphs. Breaks down the 3 main axes, and the 4 main factors in performance: Ukraine's strategy, Russia's defenses, Ukraine's technology, and Ukraine force deployment:

Quote:

The war is now, in part, a contest between the defense industrial bases of the two sides: Russia and its partners, such as China and Iran; and Ukraine and its partners, including the United States and other Western countries. A decision by the United States to significantly reduce military aid would shift the military balance-of-power in favor of Russia and increase the possibility that Russia will ultimately win the war by seizing additional Ukrainian territory in a grinding war of attrition. Too much is at stake. As UK prime minister Margaret Thatcher said to President George H.W. Bush in the leadup to the First Gulf War, after Iraq had invaded Kuwait, “This is no time to go wobbly.”

https://www.csis.org/analysis/seizin...dominant-world

Quote

10-18-2023 , 11:03 PM

#143

Bluegrassplayer

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Salvo of 6 ATACMS being launched:

Spoiler:

1. Map and video from where the marines allegedly took a village across the Dnipro
2. ISW on the assault, and how Russia is spinning it

Spoiler:

1. Analysis of the attack on the Luhansk airstrip (not the airstrip hit by ATACMS):
2. Analysis of the ATACMS strike on the Berdiansk airstrip

Spoiler:

1. Map and visual confirmation of Russian losses near Avdiivka
2. Visual confirmation of 63 anti aircraft guns destroyed near here
3. Great analysis of the offensive there:

Quote:

Russian goals seem to be more of a political nature. They have not had any victories in months - capturing Bakhmut was hardly one. The Avdiivka salient could provide, in theory, possibilities for faster success. However, Russians have not yet been able to exploit this.

Quote:

In Bakhmut, Russians eventually switched from active flanking efforts into capturing the city block by block. If the Russians are fixated on capturing Avdiivka, there can be a long and difficult battle ahead, as Ukrainians are likely just as determined to hold it.

Quote:

Russia proved two things. It tried to take the initiative in a relatively fresh direction. Secondly, it still has reserves to do it, even though many have claimed the opposite.

Spoiler:

1. Putin downplays importance of ATACMS after over a year of fearing this was some kind of escalation red line
2. Lavrov being welcomed in North Korea
3. NYT on ATACMS and the decision to send them

Spoiler:

Quote

10-19-2023 , 03:14 PM

#144

Henry_Sugar

grinder

Join Date: Feb 2012 Posts: 487

Thomas Graham on future US-Russia relations...

https://www.politico.com/news/magazi...raine-00121247

Quote

10-19-2023 , 11:15 PM

#145

Bluegrassplayer

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2007 Posts: 38,806

1. Zelenskyy posts video of drone hits
2. Ukrainian tosses grenade in sewer where Russians are hiding to smoke them out
3. Russian tank runs over two anti-tank mines
4. Drone flies into Russian trench

Spoiler:

1. Another column burning near Avdiivka
2. Pics of the aftermath
3. Russian drone films Ukrainian robot placing landmines
4. Russian telegram saying they've suffered a lot of losses to take a few treelines

Spoiler:

1. 5 KA-52 and 4 MI-8 helicopters destroyed in the ATACMS strike
2. Helicopters are relocated

Spoiler:

1. ISW on Russian millblogger claiming that Ukraine strategy is to attrit Russian forces while conserving their own (crazy strategy) and quality of Russian forces are the worst they've ever been:
2. Russian Storm Z instructor on the issue of "throwing meat" and another mobilization
3. Storm Z soldiers record a video saying that they are being used as cannon fodder and will be left on the field, like their comrades, in order to not have their relatives paid
4. Summary of a second video saying the same
5. The Drive article on Russia trying to recruit Serbians despite objections from the government and a law forbidding it:

Spoiler:

Quote

10-20-2023 , 10:26 PM

#146

Bluegrassplayer

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1. Russian APC attempts to push another APC through a minefield and blows them both up
2. Artillery strikes, including cluster munitions on Russian advances
3. Artillery column attempting to advance (has the clip from #1 in it)
4. Drone hits a thermobaric launcher
5. Tank hits another mine
6. Stinger hits a Russian jet

Spoiler:

1. UK MOD on the Berdiansk and Luhansk air fields strikes and the impact they might have
2. Why the amount of helicopters destroyed or damaged might be as many as 21
3. Analysis claiming 21 destroyed

Spoiler:

1. Russians worried about the Avdiivka offensive and noting they're already lost more heavy equipment than Ukraine lost during the entirety of the counteroffensive
2. Visually confirmed losses from yesterday (mostly from Avdiivka
3. ISW analysis on the fighting there

Spoiler:

Quote

10-21-2023 , 12:52 AM

#147

Bluegrassplayer

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1. Biden's 15 minute address before submitting 105 billion aid package to congress for Ukraine (60 bln), Taiwan and israel:
2. AP article on problems in Congress

Spoiler:

1. Russian propagandist goes to N Korea to film propaganda piece on Lavrov and N Korea as a tourist destination where she is followed, asked not to film and reports on how isolated the country is.
2. Putin downplays ATACMS, invited Biden for pancakes and tea
3. This years Putin magazine (apparently a thing) shows no pictures from the last 2 years, essentially ignoring the invasion:
4. Russian partliament urging women to have children earlier

Spoiler:

Article on the increase in Russian propaganda in Europe:

Quote:

“The Kremlin is capitalizing on conflict fatigue, apathy, but also Euroscepticism and the fears of Western and Central European societies,” Ruslan Trad, from the Kremlin laboratory, explains to AFP. digital analysis from the Atlantic Council (DFRLab) which notes that for several months there has been "a visible increase in Russian propaganda in Europe" , compared to the first months of 2022 and the beginnings of the war, when "Moscow was more concerned about Africa" , one of its priority areas of action in terms of disinformation, according to researchers and intelligence services.

Spoiler:

Thread on how Iran supplies Russia with anti-drone radars:

Spoiler:

Reuters article on UN probe finding more evidence of war crimes:

Quote:

A United Nations commission of inquiry on Ukraine said on Friday it had found additional evidence that Russian forces had committed "indiscriminate attacks" and war crimes in Ukraine, including rape and the deportation of children to Russia.

"The Commission has found new evidence that Russian authorities have committed violations of international human rights and international humanitarian law, and corresponding crimes, in areas that came under their control in Ukraine," it said in a report submitted to the U.N. General assembly, listing attacks in the cities of Uman and Kherson, among others.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe...ks-2023-10-20/

RUSI article on how Ukraine must keep attacking to prevent Russia's regeneration of troops, but this means they cannot greatly expand their offensive capabilities either. Discusses how Russia will use airstrikes against Ukraine's energy infrastructure this winter to enable more accurate airstrikes on soldiers in the future and how ATACMS help. Also how Ukraine can use the length of the front line (and Black Sea) to their advantage

Spoiler:

Quote

10-22-2023 , 02:20 AM

#148

Bluegrassplayer

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1. Drone used to hit anti-tank mine stockpile
2. Drone operator enduring shelling
3. Bradley deploys smoke as it attacks trench near Verbove
4. Another Russian column attacks Avdiivka

Spoiler:

1. Map showing Aavdiivka, and claims of the highest losses for Russia in any single day of the war (Ukraine estimates 1400 soldiers killed)
2. Ukrainian soldier talks about the first days of the attacks
3. Starting at 8 minutes and 15 seconds, Andrew goes through what the Russian attacks on Avdiivka are attempting

Spoiler:

1. 15 KA-52s visually confirmed as damaged or destroyed from the ATACMS strike on Berdyansk air field and the strike on Luhansk air field
2. These losses represent 6% of Russia's helicopters

Spoiler:

1. 33 ships make it through Black Sea humanitarian corridor
2. Ukraine ships grain through Latvia

Spoiler:

1. "Activist who ran project commemorating political repression victims disappears in Russia after being detained"
2. "A Russian-American journalist working for RFE/RL was detained in Russia on charges of failing to register as a foreign agent."
3. NYT article on the journalist being detained

Spoiler:

1. Pics of Russia's 1st Tank battalion which allegedly took 80% casualties attacking Kupiansk
2. "Soldiers from Russia's 1st Guards Tank Regiment were reportedly tricked into joining a Storm Z assault detachment. After suffering 80% losses near Kupiansk under the orders of a "drunken commander", they are said to be imprisoned with dozens of others under threat of death."

Spoiler:

Quote

10-22-2023 , 07:10 AM

#149

Bluegrassplayer

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Henry_Sugar

Thomas Graham on future US-Russia relations...

https://www.politico.com/news/magazi...raine-00121247

Thanks again, that was a really interesting read. I'm hoping I can pick up his book sometime, I'm sure it will be very good. It looks like he's doing an hour long panel on Monday which is open for registration if you're interested: https://quincyinst.org/event/book-ta...-russia-right/

Quote:

More controversially, Washington has an interest in a Russia strong enough to play a role in sustaining stable regional balances of power along its long periphery in Eurasia. An overly weak Russia would enable China to gain effective control of Russia’s natural resources, especially in the Russian Far East, thus substantially enhancing its own power at little cost. A weak Russia would also jeopardize stability in the Arctic and reliable management of the Northern Sea Route, while encouraging a greater Chinese presence, to America’s detriment. And, ironically, a weak Russia would threaten to erode the West’s unity, which is preserved to a great degree by a continuing fear of Russian power, as we have seen since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

These are some interesting points, I wonder how (or if) his book suggests going about keeping Russia strong enough while also supporting Ukraine. Somewhat ironically, I think that USA's current approach of providing arms well after they're needed is an attempt at keeping Russia "strong", but ends up weakening Russia in the long run as it draws out the war and drives Russia further into a vassal position with China while destroying their economy. I'm assuming this book has to deal with USA's role in brokering peace with Russia, I really want to see what he says.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bluegrassplayer

Hour long documentary on Kharkiv, covers the initial invasion, liberation, how people are living there now:

Spoiler:

Second installment of this documentary, covers Ukraine liberating Mala Rohan in one of the first moves to take back Kharkiv, collecting info to determine who was responsible for which war crimes, Kharkiv offensive, and drone usage

Spoiler:

1. At least 6 killed and 13 injured in overnight bombing of Kharkiv
2. Zelenskyy's statement on it and a video of the destruction
3. FT article on Kharkiv's problems due to the close proximity to Russia, rockets arrive in only 40 seconds making air defense difficult. Trying to convince people to come back to the city

Spoiler:

Russia strikes another hospital

Spoiler:

"Russia’s Combat Losses in Ukraine Deduced From Rosstat’s ‘Unassigned Deaths’ Category":

Quote:

Perhaps even more significant is what Important Stories discovered regarding the fraction of combat deaths in the non-Russian republics and poorer Russian regions. Recruits have been disproportionately mobilized from these regions. Up to 70 percent of deaths among young men from five of the non-Russian regions—Buryatia, North Ossetia, Dagestan, Mordovia, and Mari El—and two of the poorer Russian regions—Rostov and Orenburg—come from “external causes.” Thus, from the possible causes, they were most likely the result of combat in Ukraine, a pattern that tends to confirm the claims of those who argue that Moscow is using the non-Russians and those from poor Russian regions as cannon fodder (see EDM, April 20, 2022).

https://jamestown.org/program/russia...aths-category/

Four children kidnapped by Russia returned to Ukraine

Spoiler:

Quote

10-22-2023 , 11:11 AM

#150

flopturntree

adept

Join Date: Apr 2011 Posts: 867

Thanks for the updates Blue, they are appreciated.

My general thoughts:

I'm curious who the indirect winners are of the war, in a overarching view, what players are benefiting in terms of infrastructure, oil and economy and who is losing?

40% of Europes oil supply comes from Russia, so it is to say that more or less Europe is dependent on Russia for oil. If something were to happen to Russias ability to export there may be even more serious economic ramifications.

Quote

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