Whenever War on the Rocks posts they always seem to be the best source on a topic. Here they discuss the problem with attempting NATO military doctrine in Ukraine, how Ukraine is adapting to the battlefield, and Russia's strategy.

I've find Ukraine's use of apps to be extremely fascinating. Using Signal, Google Teams, and Starlink to coordinate attacks is absolutely insane to me.


https://warontherocks.com/2023/09/bi...lmri8lfxnew6y6













Economist article on the issues with defense spending and production

https://www.economist.com/briefing/2...nish-next-year

1. Video of a bridge-laying tank Biber
2. Drone hitting a tank after dodging a "cope net"
3. 3 minute CNN video of a Ukrainian unit doing a night drone mission near Bakhmut









1. ISW on Russia's new railroads
2. How taking Andriivka near Bakhmut threatens a railroad there
3. Other railways being built in Donetsk:







1. ISW says Russian millbloggers not reporting as much on Verbove, usually a sign that they have nothing good to report:










Shoigu claiming the planned 3 day military operation will now be complete in 2025:

30 minute NYT video on part of the massacre in Bucha and how Russian command was clearly involved:









Long thread on Ukraine's attacks on Russian logistics as they get closer to Tokmak:







WSJ article on why Germany has not sent Taurus missiles yet:









Principal in occupied Ukraine complaining children are not being respectful regarding the new history they are being taught:







Kazakhstan says they will follow sanctions against Russia:

Gazprom in crisis?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nj9IlbPgo_Y

1. Armored personnel carrier
2. Infantry's view of a tank in action
3. Drone films strike on Russian targets
4. Drone strikes against Russian tanks
5. Russian air defense shooting down its own jet









Gazprom releases their official numbers for the first time 2023:










Video covering the same topics:






NYT article on the destruction of Izium:






1. UK MOD on former Wagner Group Chief of Staff being tasked by Putin to find more volunteers
2. FT on "Wagner's new boss"
3. ISW on Russia's announced conscription goals
4. Long thread on Russia's new policy of requiring companies to give registries of employees eligible for draft

Fascinating, thanks again for sharing. Interesting how they "sponsor teams" from foreign countries in order to give bribes. I only knew it as an oil company until recently then more broadly as a gas and oil company. I didn't know they had so many enterprises.



I did not understand the point at 31:45 - 33:30 when he says that the maximum rate of growth of tariffs for both the population and industrial consumers is set annually. He ends it by saying that it's all a show, but I don't get how he got there.



From what I gathered he doesn't seem to believe Gazprom is in any immediate danger. Sounds like he thinks they even made money last year, but either way they have the money to weather several losing years.

What he said is that their justification for the annual rise in tariffs is ostensibly for development (new pipelines, facilities, etc). They have accounting available, their investment plans but it's all for show.

The overriding takeaway from the host's talk with this expert is that the vast majority of Gazprom's spending is opaque and its black projects are unknown, even to the CEO, Alexei Miller, who is an empty suit. He was one of Putin's errand boys in his St. Petersburg days. He's another custodian for Putin's wealth. That's the main takeaway from the podcast. That and Gazprom's sheer size of what it's involved in.

He didn't go into too much detail about Gazprom being an obshak for Putin and his closest friends over the years. It's Bank Rossiya's second largest shareholder (the vehicle through which Putin's corruption runs). This has already been established and is well-known.

So Gazprom is in trouble but not in crisis as long as Russia is able to still evade the efforts to hurt their oil trade (which they have been able to do) but they will never again get the 40% share of the European market back. The Kremlin using it as an instrument to influence Europe through the energy sector is over, which is significant. Search the CSIS report "Understanding the Kremlin's Playbook" for more info on that.

Other key takeaways is that Power of Sibera 2 is not going to happen. The Chinese don't need to buy more gas from Russia. They can get it from Myanmar or the Central Asian countries. Their LNG development has been delayed by two years at least which is another huge setback since gas transfer is not as versatile as oil. Finally, a key indicator of the state of the company can be discerned through Alexei Miller's football club, Zenit. They spend huge sums to attract players overseas. If the team starts to have problems, it's a problem for Gazprom.

Thanks a lot, the translation for this video was not nearly as good as the last one and a lot of it went over my head unfortunately. I agree with everything mentioned.



In depth thread on trench system past Robotyne. Includes a video showing how they had to use artillery on the treeline with the trenches before approaching. Several of the bombs are clearly cluster munitions which means they'd have to walk assault near their potentially unspent bomblets:







Deep State's summary of the counteroffensive so far:







1. Red Square and Manezhnaya Square celebrating “One Country, One Family, One Russia”
2. BBC on the event, how Putin is spinning the invasion, and how he will not give up:









1. Ukraine MOD on hosting the Defense Industries Forum in Ukraine
2. Telegram claims UK will move training program to Ukraine
3. Politico article on the forum:










UK MOD on Russia potentially preparing to spend 6% of GDP on the war:

Long thread on how "Russia has become a police state without enough police" leading to a rise in violent crimes:








Analysis with video of the failed Russian attack near Urozhaine last week:







521 Shahed drones launched against Ukraine in September, the same amount as Russia launched in June, July and August combined:













Reuters article on British PM saying military instructors won't be placed in Ukraine:

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe...ys-2023-09-30/










1. WSJ on waning American influence and how the problems passing the aid package for Ukraine affect it:
2. Leading member of Macron's party on getting Ukraine into NATO, and preparing Europe to help Ukraine without help from USA:
3. AP article on Slovakia electing a Pro-Russia, anti-America PM:

Perun on Russia's defense production; cliffs are losses greatly outpace production, more and more older tanks showing up suggests they are not keeping up with losses, a lot of Russia claimed "production" is likely just taking things out of storage, there is some equipment clearly fresh from the factory however suggesting they are ramping up production, one area where they are clearly producing a lot more is drones and loitering munitions, to keep pressing Russia and outpacing production via attrition Ukraine needs to keep on the offensive:






1. BBC interviewing people in Red Square about the anniversary of the annexation of Ukrainian oblasts
2. ISW on the lack of clarity over what exactly has been declared annexed
3. Russian mercenary on the people from the LPR and DPR forced into cannon fodder units at the start of the war:








Al Jazeera article on Ukraine's first public attack on Russia's power grid:











Economist article on Putin's struggles with the Central Bank, especially as he raising GDP spending on the war from 4% to 6%:









Iranian ammunition in official Russian MOD footage for the first time:









1. Maps showing Russia's new fortifications
2. Map of new highway being built to Mariupol:

CNN article on Western militaries running out of ammo to send to Ukraine:

https://edition.cnn.com/europe/live-...44215ab6111b91



1. Drone spotting for HIMARS strike on ammo depot and infantry fighting vehicles:
2. HIMARS hits a tank
3. Air defense








1. Long thread on drug use in the Russian military and the Ukrainian drug dealers, or Russian soldiers who took over the Ukrainian drug dealer's business, who supply the drugs
2. Long thread on Russian veterans not receiving benefits, especially ex-Wagnerites and those forcefully conscripted from DPR and LPR:
3. Reuters on cannon fodder Storm Z units:










Kyiv Independent article on Russia's energy terrorism last year, the likely continuation of it this winter, and how Ukraine has been preparing:






1. "European Parliament approved the revision of the EU budget for 2021-2027, which includes provisions on the creation of a special Ukrainian fund of €50 billion."

Results of EU meeting in Kyiv, integration into the EU and aid:




https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...ine-russia-war






1. First batch of Leopard 2s which have been repaired in Poland were sent to Ukraine
2. Chart of Russian losses indicates Russian tank losses are far higher than visually confirmed:

Mike Haven sent a really interesting NYT article on Russian information and attempts to influence politics:

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/02/u...ed-states.html




The article it links to discussing Russia's "grooming campaign" for politicians is great as well:

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/25/u...ropaganda.html




It's an especially good read since Slovakia just elected a pro Russia PM, and also due to the House's failure to pass a bill that includes more aid to Ukraine. Here's a great point about the importance of Putin's strategy regarding trying to alter sentiments in USA in particular:







Here is Rand's description of how some of Russian propaganda works. It makes a lot of places an absolute nightmare to look for any type of real information:


(A recent example of this was Russian propaganda claiming to have already destroyed an Abrams tank, even though they haven't shown up on the battlefield yet.)

https://www.rand.org/pubs/perspectives/PE198.html

One of the best places to discuss the Russo-Ukrainian War, no doubt because, thankfully, nobody's here in the blog house. Thanks for posting in one place all the news, Bluegrassplayer.

In the final debate between the leaders of the leading 3 parties Ukraine was not mentioned once.

I now have Slovak citizenship and voted (for the party that came second).

The results are a reflection of a general old-left (i.e. give me money but don't give lgbt people rights) tendency in many of the voters (Smer was the largest party in the parliament from 2006 to 2020 and the largest party in government for the same period except briefly in 2010-2012) coupled with the parties that were in power from 2020-2023 having generally shat the bed, particularly during the coronavirus period.

It doesn't make sense to analyse the Slovak election primarily in terms of Ukraine policy any more than it would make sense to analyse an American election in terms of the red pro-Moscow party and the blue pro-Kiev party.

While Fico is favourite to form a coalition with him at the head, it's also not a lock that he becomes PM after the negotiations. For example the kingmaker party Hlas has other options and may demand the PM seat themselves.

Thanks for the kind words Henry, and thanks for participating in the thread.



Forgot to put this in the previous post, Guardian article on EU's efforts to fight disinformation, particularly on Twitter:


https://www.theguardian.com/technolo...fake-news-laws




Also this was posted today and is an extremely good thread on Russian propaganda. I doubt most will wade into the depths of Twitter hell (or 2p2 hell) to see most of this propaganda but it is out there in huge amounts:


















I didn't mean to suggest I was analyzing the Slovak election as a whole. In the context of this thread, Fico's ties to Russia and his view of their invasion of Ukraine are what are important. He is very pro-Russia and this is his reported stance towards aiding Ukraine:

https://www.npr.org/2023/10/02/12029...ukraine-russia



Thanks for providing some context on him not having become PM yet.













Zeihan on Europe managing to cut out Russian gas in such a short time, why they're unlikely to get the back up and running due to no longer having the technology:











Foreign Policy on Russia's propaganda regarding Crimea and how their "red line" regarding it is clearly false:



https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/10/04...aine-red-line/











The Atlantic on the debate over aid going to Ukraine in the House:

(Pretty hilarious as we are now on the second round of propaganda saying Zelenskyy's wife went on a spending spree. Last year she spent 40k shopping in France, this year it's 1 million in NYC. Of course there's no evidence provided)






https://www.theatlantic.com/newslett...ne-aid/675527/

DW video on Ukraine's problem with getting volunteers to join the military, and the Ukrainians who have fled the country to avoid conscription after it was made for men aged 18-60 to do so:











Long thread on the company which is likely building the railway to Mariupol, that they are likely to be using convict workers, why it makes more sense for Ukraine to try to prevent it being completed and the controversy of attacking civilian contractors like Ukraine did with the ones who were previously building trench systems:








1. "The Exodus of Russian ships from Sevastopol"
2. Analysis that the news is sensationalist and people overestimate the results of the strikes
3. Telegraph article on why no navy in Sevastopol is important
4. ISW analysis of it:










1. Marina Ovsyannikova holding up a sign on live news protesting the war at the beginning of the invasion (at least I think this is right, I had to go way back to dig it up)
2. Reuters article on her being given 8.5 years for discrediting Russia (after her initial fine she fled the country so seems like it's completely symbolic):

















Long thread on underestimating Russia's defensive lines because the fortifications in the treelines were not taken into account (not mentioned here, but this is why the Ukrainians refer to the treelines as the first line while media mostly refers to the dragon's teeth and anti tank ditches from the Surovikin Line as the first line):


















1. Cliifs on the most recent UN report on Russian war crimes including torture and kidnapping children:
2. Full report:



https://news.un.org/en/story/2023/10/1141872


https://www.ohchr.org/sites/default/...ukraine-en.pdf

Right, just tired of it being covered that way in the media generally.

His messaging has been pro-Russia as he's calculated there's votes in it. After 17 years I still have no idea what he genuinely personally thinks about anything. the military cooperation deal with the US was agreed when he was in power for example, then he criticised his successors for signing it. I doubt he's going to do anything for Moscow that doesn't benefit him personally. I've never seen him do anything that looked unpopular unless it related in some way to corruption. The main aim in this comeback seems to be protecting himself and allies from corruption charges. These kinds of charges against "politician I don't like" might seem yawning familiar to people from the west, but most western politicians have things that they care about that they are willing to spend their political capital on despite their being vote-losers (e.g. British politicians continuing to oppose Brexit even after the referendum, Us politicians views on abortion not being dependent on opinion polls) but i can think of no such thing in his case.

Slovakia doesn't have much of its own stuff to give away anyway (having already given away their only S300 system and all 12 Mig-29s). The question is whether he will cancel the commercial contract to build more Zuzanas in Slovakia for Ukraine and most analysts say that's unlikely as it would be a vote loser.

Russian Iskander strikes a funeral wake, killing at least 48:














1. Euromaidan Press article on moving from "give us" to "let's do it together" regarding defense production, and placing manufacturing in Ukraine:
2, CNN video on Ukraine's ammo shortages and what stalls in USA mean for the soldiers
3. US Central Command transfers 1.1 million rounds of ammo seized from Iran to Ukraine
4. Putin saying "...if Western defense supplies are terminated tomorrow, Ukraine will have a week left to live as it runs out of ammunition."
5. ISW on the terms "proxy war" and "long war" and how encouraging negotiations with Putin will make the war longer and bloodier
6. CNN article on sending the Iranian ammunition
7. Department of Defense on the importance of passing legislation to send aid to Ukraine as soon as possible:
















1. "Russia's Federal Penitentiary Service (FSIN) will receive a huge infusion of funding to build a network of nearly 30 new penal institutions in the occupied areas of Ukraine.":
2. Russia expands training centers in occupied Ukraine

1. WAPO video on the strike on the funeral killing 52
2. Picture of the man who the funeral was for and three of the victims of the strike
3. Hroza local says they killed the entire village with one rocket (another source said 1 in 6 residents of the village was killed)
4. Russia strikes downtown Kharkiv
5. Short video of downtown Kharkiv after the strike








Zelenskyy on several things including the funeral attack, and plans to protect Ukrainian infrastructure this winter. (There's also been increased rhetoric that Ukraine will be doing reprisal strikes on Russian infrastructure, this will be a brutal winter.)

https://www.president.gov.ua/news/vi...t-nashim-86153










1. ISW on Putin suggesting Prig's plane went down because the people on board were high/drunk and playing with grenades when one went off; he then denies PMCs exist in Russia:
2. ISW on Putin continuing propaganda campaigns for why he invaded Ukraine
3. Compilation of 47 videos of Russian media calling for genocide of Ukrainians
4. 90% of monuments to Stalin put up while Putin was in control
5. Radio Free Europe article on taking down memorials to victims to Stalin and how Putin seeks to rewrite history about Stalin:












1. Zeihan on Russia attacking grain and energy infrastructure
2. Bloomberg article on Germany sending air defense systems to help protect grain shipments:
3. CNN article on how Russia stands to export more grain and profit from it









Sudden drop in oil prices:

1. Russian air defense shoots down second Russian bomber this week
2. Where it was downed and video of wreckage:








1. In depth post on unrealistic expectations, Ukraine's limitations, and Russian reserves
2. Anders Puck Nielsen analysis on what is likely to happen this Fall and Winter
3. ISW on announcing Ukraine will continue fighting through the winter
4. UK MOD on Sochi strike










1. CBS article on N Korea giving Russia ammo as USA gives Ukraine ammo seized from Iran
2. Speculation on why Germany is not supply Taurus
3. Denmark revives form ammunition factory
4. "Rheinmetall Receives Large Order to Supply Ammunition to Ukraine and Germany"


(From CBS article)


















Long thread on recent changes with mobilizing convicts and what it's likely to mean:

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1...131185007.html



























1. "Our soldiers found documents on the sale of children and human organs from which Ukraine derives 7% of its national budget, with the support of private British military companies and Coca Cola." (Is this really the translation?)
2. EuroMaidan Press on study about Russian propaganda
3. Compilation of various Russian propaganda outlets calling for the destructino of Ukraine
4. Pravda on the fake news about Zelenskyy's wife spending $1 million at a jewelry store
5. AP article on Russia using yeah old photo of soldiers surrendering after siege of Mariupol to claim Ukraine is surrendering in mass now



(From EuroMaidan article)

Commentary from various officials and business magnates with close ties to Putin truthfully discussing Russia's economy, the unsustainable burdens the govt has placed on businesses, it's lopsided relationship with China, and brain drain.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RLk8KzP507I

It's incredible how careful they have to be with their language. I'm surprised that some of them are speaking so openly to begin with.


For example, speaking on the million men who fled Russia:

which he follows by something about "correct definitions" that didn't translate well. Clearly everything said is self censored and heavily sanitized, but even despite that it is such a negative view of the Russian economy. Great video, thanks for sharing.







1. Ukraine hits Russian thermobaric launcher
2. Video of drones searching for artillery and their strikes, also how it highlights the importance of long range missiles








CNN video on Ukraine getting better at using tanks:










ISW on how Russia is using the Hamas attack to their advantage (Both sides are attempting this and have pretty ridiculous takes imo):









UK MOD on Russia constructing more trenches and bunkers near Tokmak and evacuating the town:











Telegraph article on Biden considering passing a large aid package to cover through the election, waning support among Americans:

1. GRAPHIC "1st Company of the 1st Battalion of the 3rd Assault Brigade receiving a direct hit into their M113, dismounting, setting up circular defence under heavy fire, and helping and evacuating the wounded."
2. Russian tank fires shell then is hit by ATGM












Hour long documentary on Kharkiv, covers the initial invasion, liberation, how people are living there now:








Woman in occupied Kherson region teaching children to love Russia:










1. Ukrainian journalist on how the lack of resolve in the west is hurting world order
2. Reaction to Vivek's attacks on Ukraine and a good example of how anti-Ukraine rhetoric is voiced
3. Very good CEPA article on struggles in Congress to pass aid bill, legitimate worries brought up by Republicans, and recommendations:















BBC article on the first "Geneva Code of cyber-war" (my friend has to return to Russia to get a new passport and was unable to book an appointment because they were all full, she called and was told that this is a form of cyberattack: as soon as they go up they are automatically booked, they still did not allow her to book the appointment by phone):


https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-67029296

1. GRAPHIC Various artillery strikes on Russian logistics
2. Destroyed Ukrainian dummy
3. Allegedly destroying Russian "trainload" outside Tokmak:









Analysis of the very limited info around Verbove:







UK MOD on Iran-Russia relations










Meduza article "How Russian occupation forces transformed the Ukrainian city of Melitopol into ‘Europe’s largest prison’":







ISW on Russia attempting to mine Ukrainian logistics routes and fix Ukrainian forces away from Tokmak:

GRAPHIC Artillery (?) destroys Russian column (ignore the text in the tweet):







Long thread on the lack of medical care for Russian soldiers and the unnecessary deaths caused by this:









Example of how Russia propaganda spreads a false narrative so a useful idiots will repeat it then MSM can repeat the useful idiot and not the clearly false Russian propaganda:








WSJ article on trying to get a larger bill, $50-$100 billion in aid passed and the various reasons behind this:







1. Facts regarding Iran/Hamas/Russia and why the situation there is unlikely to be directly instigated by Russia:
2. Kyiv Independent article on Blinken saying the Hamas attack was unlikely an attempt to take advantage of the West's focus on Ukraine







FT article on the Black Sea



















Forbes article on the destroyed train near Tokmak:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidax...h=5901b35376ac







Reuters article on Ukraine entering winter without having completed repairs to their energy infrastructure and expecting more numerous attacks this year:

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe...em-2023-10-06/