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09-15-2023 , 05:07 PM

#76

LirvA

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Join Date: Sep 2007 Posts: 43,574

Slava Ukraini!

Quote

09-16-2023 , 05:52 AM

#77

Bluegrassplayer

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1. Ukraine claims to have taken Andriyivka and killed three battalion commanders in the process:
2. Video of the assault
3. What the remains look like
4. Speaker of Ukrainian forces also claims it's been taken
5. Importance of another village in that area

Spoiler:

Russian general says "Ukrainians have changed tactics, that they effectively combat minefields, that their drones are endless, and that the Russian counter-battery fire is still ineffective."

Spoiler:

Ex Wagner members have not had their criminal records erased as promised. They are finding it difficult to find work:

Spoiler:

Reuters article on USA claiming to be able to make 100k 155mm shells a month in 2025:

Spoiler:

Economist article on tactics used in Ukraine, second half on the difference between this war and the ones USA has fought and qualified to teach is really good:

https://www.economist.com/internatio...actics-working

Quote:

Fighting about fighting
American officials are not well placed to offer lessons on tactical best practice, says Mr Friedman. The bulk of their recent experience of combat has been in mountainous or desert areas where small units cannot take advantage of cover to advance in this way. The two main training centres for America’s ground forces, the army’s site at Fort Irwin and the marines’ location at Twentynine Palms, are both in Californian desert environments, he points out. “us forces have very little experience facing anything like what Ukraine is facing, whether in combat or in training.”

The problem is: nor does Ukraine. Mr Watling and Mr Reynolds argue that attrition of officers and the dramatic expansion of Ukraine’s army over the past 18 months mean that it lacks sufficient junior leaders with expertise in offensive operations. The result, they say, is that decisions are thrown up to more senior officers, overwhelming brigade headquarters that already have a lot on their plate.

They give the example of a Ukrainian attack on the village of Rivnopil in Donetsk province earlier in the summer. Attackers are supposed to release smoke to cover their movement and confuse the enemy. But only 3% of Ukraine’s artillery-fire missions involved smoke—in part because senior commanders did not want to obscure their own view of the battle from drones circling overhead. The lesson is that Ukraine needs more junior officers who can be trusted to take the initiative even when their bosses cannot watch from afar.

The quality of training is important, too. Western training facilities are hobbled by a “safety culture in nato”, argue Mr Watling and Mr Reynolds. Drones are central to Ukraine’s tactics, allowing artillery units to spot targets and infantry to perform reconnaissance. Yet most nato training areas impose tight restrictions on when and how drones may be flown, for fear they will veer off course. Safety rules also mean that artillery skills are typically taught later in courses. But in Ukraine “troops who are not prepared to deal with artillery are not prepared for the fight,” write the rusi analysts. Europe’s health and safety rules are not a good fit for a war of national survival.

Most of these issues will not be resolved during the current counter-offensive. Ukraine will eventually need to reintroduce mechanised and armoured forces if it is to exploit any breakthroughs. That could get easier: minefields are less dense beyond the first line of defence. It is thought to have enough ammunition to fight through the autumn. But on September 10th Mark Milley, America’s top general, said that Ukraine probably had 30 to 45 days of combat left before rain and mud would make it too difficult for vehicles to advance.

In recent weeks Ukraine has made faster progress in the south by piercing the first of Russia’s three defensive lines in Zaporizhia around the village of Robotyne, widening the resulting salient by pressing east to Verbove and then attacking towards the village of Novoprokopivka (see map). Russia has been forced to commit key reserves from its 76th air assault division; but it has been able to commit them because Ukraine threw in its own in August.

It is not clear how much fresh manpower either side has left. Rates of attrition appear to favour Ukraine over Russia, but sources suggest that Russia can probably still scrape together enough reserves to plug holes. “Unless there is a collapse of Russian lines, the battles we have seen for the past three months are the ones we will likely continue to see over the next few months,” concludes Mr Muzyka, who argues that only the deployment of larger formations, beyond Ukraine’s capacity, would speed things up. Dozens of Western officials consulted by The Economist are also sceptical that a major breakthrough will come before winter. “We’ve got to extend our timeline,” says one of them. “This could be a very long struggle.” ■7

Quote

09-16-2023 , 08:22 AM

#78

Bluegrassplayer

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1. Surovokin in "exile" in Algeria:
2. The significance of this, how it might be to counteract Shoigu's growing influence, replacement of Prig in Africa:

Spoiler:

NBC article on Zelenskyy likely to appear in NY to address UN, then meet Biden:

Spoiler:

Advanced Ukrainian decoy:

Spoiler:

1. Zelenskyy on fighting corruption
2. Kyiv post article on zelenskyy vetoing bill a recent bill:

Quote:

Despite the support of 91.7% of Ukrainians and the calls of European Parliament members and G7 Ambassadors for the restoration of the e-declarations system, the parliament voted to hide the registry for yet another year – “generously” granting officials the ability to publish their declarations on a voluntary basis.

There are no real grounds to justify the parliament’s decision, as well as no guarantees that lawmakers will not further prolong it next September.

The European Parliamentarians issued a statement asking Zelensky not to pass the draft law as it stands due to concerns it will undermine trust in reforms. Meanwhile, a petition asking Zelensky to veto the law and propose the parliament to open the e-declarations, has reached over 83,000 signatures.

Spoiler:

Atlantic article on how USA is learning from Ukraine, and Pentagon saying how they might apply that in a war against China:

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/ar...-hicks/675310/

Quote:

In two recent speeches, Kathleen Hicks, the U.S. deputy secretary of defense, openly outlined how the United States might defend itself in a war with China, and the vision she described would sound familiar to Ukrainian military planners. Instead of directly butting heads with the People’s Liberation Army in a war of mass versus mass, Hicks spoke of achieving victory through ingenuity and innovation, yielding new military technologies that would be “harder to plan for, harder to hit, harder to beat.”

A Pentagon plan that she described as the Replicator Initiative would produce an army of small, inexpensive, AI-enabled vehicles capable of operating in a broad range of war-fighting environments. These vehicles—Hicks described them as “all-domain attributable autonomous,” or ADA2—would protect American fighters and enhance their capabilities. If the U.S. deployed them in large numbers, these ADA2 vehicles could be unstoppable; the PLA’s tanks, missiles, ships, and other heavy military equipment would have no way to fight them all off. A major advantage of the Replicator Initiative would be that fewer American soldiers would have to be put in harm’s way against a much larger Chinese army.

Hicks was painting a tantalizing picture, in short, of the U.S. playing to its strengths and mitigating its weaknesses. In describing all this, she referred numerous times to the current war in Ukraine and to the experience that the Ukrainian army is gaining. “Imagine flocks of ADA2 systems, flying at all sorts of altitudes, doing a range of missions, building on what we’ve seen in Ukraine,” she said. “They could be deployed by larger aircraft, launched by troops on land or sea, or take off themselves.” Hicks explicitly cited Ukraine’s fight against Russia as a precedent for a U.S. conflict with the more populous People’s Republic of China. “Replicator is meant to help us overcome the PRC’s biggest advantage, which is mass,” she said. “More ships. More missiles. More people. Before Russia invaded Ukraine again in February [2022], they seemed to have that advantage.”

Article on how Russia is demolishing Ukrainian homes in Mariupol and selling the new ones which are being built instead of giving them back to the "liberated" citizens:

https://khpg.org/en/1608812779

Quote

09-17-2023 , 04:37 AM

#79

Bluegrassplayer

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1. UK MOD on Russia reinforcing the Tokmak area breach
2. ISW on the breach in this area and what the lack of Ukrainian heavy equipment here means

Spoiler:

1. 3rd Assault Brigade shows assault on the village
2. Loudspeaker attached to UAV to ask Russians to surrender in Andriivka
3. Russian artillery fires on Russians surrendering
4. Ukrainian artillery striking fleeing Russians
5. Analysis of the surrounding of the village and the Russian casualties taken
6. WarGonzo confirms the village is taken
7. ISW on how fixing the Russian "elite" units here has prevented them from reinforcing the more strategically important Tokmak area
8. ISW on how this could be a breakthrough in the Bakhmut region

Spoiler:

GRAPHIC Ukrainian tank, infantry and UAV assault on area north of Bakhmut

Spoiler:

ISW on gains made near Bakhmut and Verbove:

Spoiler:

1. Russia claims sea drone destroyed hitting a ship, but video released showing a large explosion
2. Russia ship being towed into port
3. Another Russian ship being towed into port
4. Minsk still burning in port after being hit 2 days ago

Spoiler:

Quote

09-17-2023 , 08:30 PM

#80

Bluegrassplayer

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1. Almost all taxes to be spent on defense budget in Ukraine, 7x larger budget than 2023
2. Zelenskyy on 86 defense companies working with Ukraine to integrate them with NATO arms and up production

Spoiler:

1. German MoD discussing sending Taurus long range missiles
2. Blinken says who Ukraine targets is "their decision, not ours"

Spoiler:

1. Long thread on Russia's artillery problems
2. Zeihan on Russia asking N Korea for help with artillery:

Spoiler:

Mobilized Russians won't be allowed to return him until the war concludes:

Spoiler:

European Parliament asks asks ICC to issue warrant for Lukashenko:

Spoiler:

Interesting analysis of the different political stances among Russian citizens:

Spoiler:

Private security companies seize territory of an oil company in Russia

Spoiler:

Long thread on Mariupol under Russian occupation

Spoiler:

1. UK MOD on how Russia used ALCMs to strike Ukrainian energy infrastructure during winter months, and might have been stockpiling them for this winter:
2. WSJ article on the challenges with winter coming up

Quote:

One worry is that Ukraine’s grueling assault on Russian defenses could eventually achieve a breach that its heavy armored equipment can’t quickly exploit because terrain is too muddy or snowy.

For now, fighting is a brutal infantry slog over small distances, with both sides’ movements limited by constant aerial surveillance and attacks. Kyiv’s forces are battering away at heavily defended Russian lines, seeking to create fissures that they can widen and push tanks and other armored equipment through.

“The fighting will continue one way or another,” said Maj. Gen. Kyrylo Budanov, the head of Ukraine’s HUR military intelligence service, last weekend.

“It is harder to fight in the cold, in the wet, in the mud,” he acknowledged. Still, he added: “The offensive operation will continue on all fronts.”

Quote:

Any pause in Ukraine’s assault could let Russia entrench itself more deeply in occupied territory, complicating future Ukrainian attempts to retake control. Satellite images show that Russia is already reinforcing previously constructed defenses behind the front line, according to Brady Africk at the American Enterprise Institute, a think tank based in Washington, D.C.

Spoiler:

1. Finland begins construction on 1300 km fence along border with Russia
2. Poland announces it will replace their fence with a wall

Spoiler:

1. How Russia uses the Russian Orthodox Church to spy
2. NYT article on state sponsored (probably Russia) hacking of phones of journalists using "zero click" software

Spoiler:

FT article on the Ukrainian children kidnapped and brought to Russua:

https://x.com/KenRoth/status/1702839534088511991?s=20

Quote:

But it also points to a challenge that has received too little global attention. Since Russia’s invasion, many Ukrainian children have been grabbed by Russian soldiers and officials, and dispatched east. Lubinets said he has records of almost 20,000 such deportations. He added, however, that Russia’s children’s rights commissioner, Maria Lvova-Belova, has proudly claimed “several times” that there are 700,000 Ukrainian children in Russia. (In March, the International Criminal Court charged her and President Vladimir Putin with war crimes.)

While some were orphans and a few were children from Russian-occupied regions deliberately dispatched by their families, many have living parents and were taken against the will of their families. The Humanitarian Research Lab at Yale University among others has reported that Russian officials are using these deportations to eradicate Ukrainian culture by placing children in re-education programmes.

Quote:

There is now a race against time for deported Ukrainian children. Since they are often adopted after a few months in Russia and, as Lubinets observed, “in the documents the Russians often change everything, like name and date of birth and place of birth”, it will become increasingly hard to find them as time passes.

Lubinets complained bitterly about what he sees as the inaction of the UN and International Committee of the Red Cross, among other groups. Anna Maria Corazza Bildt, a former European parliamentarian involved in children’s issues told me: “The UN is useless because Russia is on the security council and blocking everything.”

In this void, private charities and the Ukrainian government are using any avenue they can to track and retrieve children. Precise tactics are closely guarded, but include hacking the Russian internet to search for records, sending letters to Russian bureaucrats, calling sympathetic Russian citizens and dispatching mediators (and parents themselves) to Russia to argue their case.

Quote

09-18-2023 , 09:34 AM

#81

Bluegrassplayer

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1. German short range air to air missile defense system
2. Russian infrantry attacks Ukrainian positions outside Verbove
3. Air defense in Odesa
4. Ukrainian tanks firing inside Bakhmut

Spoiler:

1. UK MOD on Russian reinforcements around Robotyne
2. Russia focusing on strengthening defenses around Tokmak:

Spoiler:

1. ISW on the two villages taken in the Bakhmut area and the criticism for focusing so many forces there
2. Why AFU has not reported Klishchiivka liberated despite rumors and seeming to control the village :

Spoiler:

Quote

09-19-2023 , 02:01 AM

#82

Bluegrassplayer

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1. Footage from Urozhaine (probably mid August)
2. Special Police Force Brigade in Klishchiivka:

Spoiler:

1. Pics of the sub

Spoiler:

Russian soldier sentenced to 6 years in prison for using her pregnancy to evade mobilization:

Spoiler:

Russian advertisement to join the military where they two soldiers in a trench calmly talk about how after the war they'll move into Kyiv and Odesa:

Spoiler:

Russian reports from Bakhmut area:

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1...766140578.html

Quote:

"And they are being thrown into Andriiivka with almost no weapons. He said: roughly speaking, we are coming at them with shovels and no artillery support. There is nowhere to retreat, because behind them are our own men, who will not spare them either.

"Six hundred didn't return from their missions. And all this in just two days. And the official reports tell us that only two or three people were killed."

Posts on Telegram say that the men are experiencing very heavy incoming fire: "the enemy does not stop attempting a breakthrough using cluster munitions." Denis himself says that "the 94th Regiment is being zeroed out [killed] ... our regiment is here to be put down."

He says that its commander, a man named Zaitsev with the callsign 'Rapira', told the men explicitly that they were there to die. "He's a local, either from the DNR or the LNR. We're his third regiment. He left two regiments here, he said that "I'll leave you here too".

Denis compares Zaitsev unfavourably to his previous commander, who he says was a more humane man. "Our last commanding officer got us out of it. That's what got him fired. That he didn't send his men out to be butchered."

Russian propagandist says Russians should be more like N Koreans:

Quote:

Mikheyev said, “Yes, life in North Korea is no picnic. But it isn’t as bad as Americans portray it... American sanctions are scary only to those who have been on their hook to begin with! Those who have bank accounts over there, parallel lives [in the West], etc. What can you forbid to North Koreans? To drink Coca-Cola? They don’t have it anyway! To watch Hollywood movies? They don’t have them anyway! You’ll turn off their Internet? They don’t have it anyway! You won’t import IPhones? They don’t have them anyway! You will forbid them to travel to Europe and America? They aren’t traveling anyway! There is no way to get to them.”

Solovyov, who lost his Italian villas to Western sanctions, sternly looked on, as Mikheyev spoke.

Mikheyev praised Vladimir Putin’s rumored plan to visit North Korea in the near future and predicted wide-ranging cooperation between Russia and the “hermit kingdom.” Mikheyev pointed out that in the past, North Korea was ridiculed in Moscow, but now serves as an example of independence and unpredictability Russia would do well to follow.

Mikheyev surmised: “The low living standards are both the weakness and the strength of North Korea! You can’t do to them what you could do to the people—and the elites—in the post-Soviet space that got hooked on what you have to offer. Elites in the post-Soviet space got used to eating good food and having sweet dreams, to keeping their money in [Western] banks. But these people don’t need anything! Well, maybe they do need it, but they don’t have anything.”

Spoiler:

Quote

09-19-2023 , 06:40 AM

#83

Bluegrassplayer

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https://www.nytimes.com/2023/09/18/w...ka-market.html

Quote:

Witness accounts and an analysis of video and weapon fragments suggest a Ukrainian missile failed to hit its intended target and landed in a bustling street, with devastating consequences.

The Sept. 6 missile strike on Kostiantynivka in eastern Ukraine was one of the deadliest in the country in months, killing at least 15 civilians and injuring more than 30 others. The weapon’s payload of metal fragments struck a market, piercing windows and walls and wounding some victims beyond recognition.

Quote

09-19-2023 , 09:44 PM

#84

Bluegrassplayer

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1. Zelenskyy's address to the UN General Assembly
2. Important parts of the address
3. Zelenskyy 60 minutes interview transcript

Quote:

Pelley: The drone strikes in Russia are being done on your orders?

Zelenskyy (translated): No.

Pelley: Not on your orders?

Zelenskyy (translated): Well, you know…

Pelley: How was it happening?

Zelenskyy (translated): You know that we don't shoot at the territory of the Russian Federation.

We decided to try the question another way.

Pelley: What message is being sent with these drone strikes in Russia?

Zelenskyy (translated): You do know that we use our partners' weapons on the territory of Ukraine only. And this is true. But these are not punitive operations, such as they carry out killing civilians. But Russia needs to know that wherever it is, whichever place they use for launching missiles to strike Ukraine, Ukraine has every moral right to send a response to those places. We are responding to them saying: "Your sky is not as well protected, as you think."

Spoiler:

1. RPG-7 warhead attached to FPV and hits a tank, huge explosion and interesting thread
2. Kamikaze drone fails to explode so Russian soldier shoots it

Spoiler:

Russian beating other Russian soldiers with a stick

Spoiler:

Anders Puch Nielsen on whether or not Ukraine will lose too many men to continue the war Cliffs: USA estimates 70k Ukrainian deaths and 120k wounded, exacerbated by draft dodgers and bribing to get out of service. Conservative estimate is Ukraine has a pool of 10 million fit to serve. Neither Russia or Ukraine will have people serving as a limiting factor; this is a contest of wills and it seems Ukraine is winning that contest. Ukraine has ongoing drafts, Russia has no systemic way of replacing soldiers since Putin is afraid of public backlash caused by another mobilization. Ukrainian casualties are awful, but from a purely military perspective it is a training problem, not a "running out of soldiers" problem.

Spoiler:

1. Shoigu goes to Iran to discuss arms, particularly drones
2. China bans sale of drones of a certain size:

Spoiler:

1. Secretary of Defense Austin meets with new Ukrainian MoD, discussing Russia destroying 280k tons of grain so far
2. Pic of strike on Lviv last night where 300 tons of grain were destroyed
3. Another pic

Spoiler:

Quote

09-19-2023 , 11:51 PM

#85

Bluegrassplayer

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CNN article "Ukraine’s special services ‘likely’ behind strikes on Wagner-backed forces in Sudan, a Ukrainian military source says"

https://edition.cnn.com/2023/09/19/a...ntl/index.html

Quote:

Ukrainian special services were likely behind a series of drone strikes and a ground operation directed against a Wagner-backed militia near Sudan’s capital, a CNN investigation has found, raising the prospect that the fallout from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has spread far from the frontlines.

Speaking to CNN, a Ukrainian military source described the operation as the work of a “non-Sudanese military.” Pressed on whether Kyiv was behind the attacks, the source would only say that “Ukrainian special services were likely responsible.”

The operation involved a series of attacks on the paramilitary group Rapid Support Forces (RSF), which is believed to be receiving assistance from Wagner, the Russian mercenary group, in its fight against the Sudanese army for control of the country.

72 post Twitter thread on ATACMS and why Ukraine needs them:

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1...623162271.html

Satellite imagery shows that Kakhovka Reservoir has lots of vegetation growing there, against expectations:

Spoiler:

Russia is not allowing companies from "unfriendly" countries to take out their profits after they stayed in Russia:

Spoiler:

CNN article on Ukraine's artillery demands:

Quote:

All in all, Kyiv needs some 1.5 million artillery shells annually, according to the CEO of one of Europe’s largest arms manufacturers, Rheinmetall.

Quote:

Rheinmetall says its production should hit 400,000 shells this year, with 600,000 its goal for 2024. That’s up from producing less than 100,000 shells annually pre-2022.

Scandinavian munitions producer Nammo hopes to see production reach 80,000 shells annually next year, up from “a few thousand” in 2021.

However, these increases speak as much to the paltry demand prior to Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, as the EU’s push for increased production.

US suppliers have faced a similar uphill battle to boost production, with total US production expected to reach 100,000 shells monthly in 2025, up from 14,500 per month in early 2023, according to the head of Pentagon acquisitions, William LaPlante. US monthly production is currently at 28,000 shells per months, LaPlante added.

Spoiler:

Interesting Forbes article on how artillery battles have evolved from "duels" to a "lopsided counterbattery campaign":

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidax...h=2dd5b79241bd

Quote

09-20-2023 , 09:48 PM

#86

Bluegrassplayer

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1. Ukrainian heavy equipment seen beyond the anti-tank ditch and dragon's teeth near Verbove for the first time
2. Map showing breach near Verbove
3. NYT visual of the progress in this area and how much Ukraine has to go:

Spoiler:

1. Russian unit near Klishchiivka says they are being sent on suicide missions without proper weapons or ammo, a soldier committed suicide instead:
2. Russian propagandist complaining about Ukraine's advantage in that area
3. ISW on 'servicemen and milbloggers revealed that the Russian military command orders Russian troops to carry out "ill-conceived and unsupported" counterattacks'
4. UK MOD on Ukraine securing Klishchiivka and Andriivka
5. Multi post thread on how the line has developed there after the capture of these villages:

Spoiler:

1. Extremely close range Ukrainian tank hits a Russian tank
2. Compilation video of a unit called White Wolf hitting Russian targets
3. Video of how Ukraine searches for mines with drones:

Spoiler:

1. Russian Black Sea Fleet HQ burning
2. Drone attacks on Crimea:

Spoiler:

Poland says it will stop arming Ukraine:

Spoiler:

Multi post thread on Russian who was wounded, not given time to heal and then sent back to fight in a different area:

Quote:

Instead, he was sent with other injured men to Naro-Fominsk in the Moscow region and confined to a barracks for a week. He says that a military doctor declared them all fit to fight, despite their unhealed wounds. The men were sent back to Ukraine under a new commander.

Quote:

Evgeny says they were rounded up and taken to Zaitseve, where hundreds of soldiers are reported to have been imprisoned, starved and tortured to 'remotivate' them.

Spoiler:

Time article on Operation Interflex which is training Ukrainians in England:

https://time.com/6315601/west-mammot...ians-soldiers/

Quote:

But it’s not just the terrain of war that Operation Interflex intends to replicate; it’s the sounds, the smells, and the feel of war, too. For that, the program incorporates audio effects (including explosions, shooting, and screaming) and brings in make-up artists who adorn actors with fake wounds. They’ve even procured meat from the local slaughterhouse in order to simulate the smell of rotting flesh. “It needs to be realistic,” a British army officer involved in Operation Interflex training tells TIME. “It needs to hit home.”

Quote:

Five weeks is a relatively short period to undergo basic infantry training. Ed Arnold, a research fellow for European security at the London-based Royal United Services Institute and a former British army officer, tells TIME that he had over three years of training before he ever stepped foot onto a warzone. But Ukraine doesn’t have the luxury of time nor an unlimited roster of soldiers at its disposal. Though Kyiv does not disclose its death toll, which it considers a state secret, U.S. officials estimate that as many as 70,000 Ukrainians have been killed, according to the New York Times—a staggering figure for an army of Ukraine’s size. “What’s been happening up until this point is they’re pretty much absorbed straight into combat units and pushed to the front to deal with casualties,” Arnold says of new recruits. “I’d rather have five weeks than not have the five weeks, but it’s really quite basic.”

Quote

09-21-2023 , 06:23 PM

#87

Bluegrassplayer

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1. ISW on the significance of Ukrainian heavy equipment behind the Surovikin line:
2. Analysis of Russian video showing Ukrainian heavy equipment behind the line
3. WSJ on the breach:

Quote:

Ukrainian troops overcame antitank obstacles including ditches and concrete blocks known as dragon’s teeth near the village of Verbove in the Zaporizhzhia region, allowing armored vehicles to press through, an officer in Ukraine’s air-assault forces in the area said. Open-source intelligence assessments of Russian videos showing artillery strikes on Ukrainian vehicles appeared to confirm the breakthrough.

The breach is small and heavily contested. The Russians are hammering the area with artillery and launching counterattacks. Ukrainian units are taking heavy casualties.

But if the Ukrainians can establish a firm foothold, they could seek to drive more armored vehicles through the gap and punch into less heavily fortified areas.

Spoiler:

1. Russia attacks critical energy infrastructure for the first time in 6 months
2. There's a blackout in Tula, Russia after an explosion, potentially the response Budanov alluded to:

Spoiler:

Satellite imagery of the Crimean airfield where Ukrainian drones struck last night, and what was stationed there:

Spoiler:

1. Slovakia replaces its ban of Ukrainian grain with a licensing system:
2. President of Lithuania offering to mediate Ukraine and Poland's problem regarding the grain deal
3. Short Bloomberg article on the situation between Poland and Ukraine:

Quote:

The prime minister’s statement on ending the delivery of military aid to Ukraine was misunderstood and wrongly interpreted, a government official said on condition of anonymity on Thursday.

The spiraling war of words between Warsaw and Kyiv has prompted concern from regional governments committed to supporting Ukraine. Lithuanian Defense Minister Arvydas Anusauskas told reporters that cutting off aid to Kyiv wasn’t on the table in talks with his Polish counterpart the day before.

Spoiler:

Russia temporarily bans fuel exports to solve help with shortages:

https://www.reuters.com/markets/comm...ts-2023-09-21/

Quote:

Russia has temporarily banned exports of gasoline and diesel to all countries outside a circle of four ex-Soviet states with immediate effect in order to stabilise the domestic market, the government said on Thursday.

It said the ban did not apply to fuel supplied under inter-governmental agreements to members of the Moscow-led Eurasian Economic Union, which includes Belarus, Kazakhstan, Armenia and Kyrgyzstan.

[...]

In recent months Russia has suffered shortages of gasoline and diesel. Wholesale fuel prices have spiked, although retail prices are capped to try to curb them in line with official inflation.

Quote

09-21-2023 , 11:24 PM

#88

Phat Mack

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Bluegrassplayer

1. Extremely close range Ukrainian tank hits a Russian tank
2. Compilation video of a unit called White Wolf hitting Russian targets
3. Video of how Ukraine searches for mines with drones:

Spoiler:

See how he shoots through the tree line and kills the tank? This makes sense to me because I wouldn't think that a shell would be detonated by a bunch of brush.

In the video a while back the tanker was letting the brush detonate his shells and I couldn't figure out how he was doing it.

tbh, the only thing I know about tanks is that I hid behind a bunch of them. Anyway, i am really liking your thread.

Quote

09-21-2023 , 11:36 PM

#89

Bluegrassplayer

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I am by no means an expert here, but my impression of the previous clip is that they were firing at Russia positions in the treelines. Russian troops use them to hide and there's significant fighting that occurs trying to take the treelines. If the tank was doing suppressing fire for infantry which was coming behind it (not shown in the clip) then they would want the shells to be blowing up on the trees to keep the enemy's heads down. If they were trying to actually damage the positions then I'm not too sure how effective that would be.

In this clip since they have a clear target which is beyond the treeline it makes sense to use a shell that doesn't explode on the trees.

Before Russia starting conserving artillery ammunitions treelines were how war reporters were using satellite imagery to see the shifting lines, because anytime Russia abandoned a treeline they would shell it out of existence instead of allowing Ukraine to then use it.

It's an interesting question, I'll try to ask someone if they know.

I'm glad you enjoying the thread, if there's any way to improve it let me know.

Quote

09-22-2023 , 10:32 AM

#90

Bluegrassplayer

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Uk MOD "Over the last four days, both Russia and Ukraine have experienced unusually intense attacks deep behind their lines.":

Spoiler:

Before and after of a decoy radar:

Spoiler:

Analysis of which countries are still sending precision machinery to Russia:

Spoiler:

The routes of the 43 cruise missiles Russia launched yesterday:

Spoiler:

GDP per capita of Russia compared to other eastern and northern European nations over the past 30 years:

Spoiler:

Quote

09-23-2023 , 06:50 AM

#91

Bluegrassplayer

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1. Video of Black Sea Fleet HQ burning
2. Before and after satellite imagery of the strike
3. Speculation that the Black Sea Fleet admiral was killed in the strike
4. Romanchuk, head of Russian forces near Verbove reported among the injured
5. Slow motion video of second or third Storm Shadow striking the HQ
6. Close up video of the HQ
7. ISW map of important parts of Crimea

Spoiler:

1. UK MOD on Russia losing 3 high ranking commanders in southern Ukraine
2. Map and analysis of Verbove
3. Key points from interview with Ukraine’s Commanding General for the counteroffensive in the South, Oleksandr Tarnavsky
4. He says Tokmak is the minimum goal

Spoiler:

GRAPHIC Russian forces near Bakhmut using a ruined tank for cover while facing off against Ukrainian troops and drones:

Spoiler:

Quote

09-23-2023 , 11:48 AM

#92

Bluegrassplayer

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Phat Mack: In The Drive interview they discuss tanks when talking about the Abrams. Budanov pretty much says they are artillery targets unless they are being used for a breakthrough.

1. Register of oligarchs to be made 3 months after the war ends
2. 100 NGOs say Ukraine can't hold elections during wartime

Spoiler:

ATACMS apparently being given to Ukraine again (lost track of how many times this has changed)

Spoiler:

The Drive interview with Budanov. They discuss the drone strikes on Moscow, Crimea, alleged attacks on Wagner in Sudan, Abrams, ATACMS and other stuff:

Spoiler:

Polish president says he will continue supplying Ukraine with weapons:

Spoiler:

"Russian state TV interprets the cracks in GOP support for Ukraine as "good signals from Washington."

Spoiler:

Quote

09-24-2023 , 05:19 AM

#93

Bluegrassplayer

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1. ISW says Ukraine has broken through fortifications west of Verbove
2. "Pro Russian channel states that the AFU have entered Verbove and that the RuAF 56th regiment are at risk of encirclement if decisions aren't made soon"
3. Satellite imagery of where lines are around Novoprokopivka
4. ISW on where Ukraine is widening the breach around Novoprokopvika
5. Deeper on this axis Russians are driving around, suggesting it's not mined as heavily:

Spoiler:

Matching ground footage of the HQ after being struck by Storm Shadows with satellite imagery:

Spoiler:

1. Map showing where Ukraine has been striking and how ATACMS will enable them to strike deeper targets
2. Long thread on the type of warheads Ukraine is likely to receive
3. Financial Times article on Biden agreeing to supply ATACMS:

Quote:

The decision was made before Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy visited the US this week, but the Biden administration chose not to announce it publicly. One person said this was to avoid tipping off the Russians, prompting them to move their supply lines further back from the frontline.

[...]

Ukraine has long requested hundreds of ATACMS, including the kind with a unitary warhead. Until now the US held off — in part because of fears that supplying Kyiv with the weaponry could escalate the conflict, and in part because the Pentagon worried it did not have enough for its own future needs.

But after the Pentagon and other agencies signed off on it, officials said they had become comfortable enough to send them. Sending the cluster bomblet kind helped to ameliorate some of the officials’ concerns because they would not deplete stocks of the missiles with unitary warheads, according to the people familiar with the discussions.

Spoiler:

NYT article on how Europe is struggling to make 1 million rounds of 155mm shells as promised:

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/09/23/w...mmunition.html

Quote

09-25-2023 , 12:25 AM

#94

Bluegrassplayer

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1. Map on the Novoprokopivka-Verbove axis
2. ISW on the intense fighting there and how things are moving too rapidly to conclusively say much
3. ISW on the strategy of counterattacking these positions resulting in high losses instead of falling back to other defensive positions, and how it's unclear what this hopes to accomplish
4. Best thread on the fighting there so far. Discusses the difference between a "breach" and a "breakthrough", what is required for a breakthrough and why it's unlikely anytime soon:

Spoiler:

1. Advances near Bakhmut allow Ukraine to begin striking logistics in that area
2. AP article on the brutal fighting happening there

Spoiler:

Analysis of several areas where fighting is intense:

Spoiler:

Vice Prime Minister announces that Ukrainians in Crimea should leave immediately

Spoiler:

1. Interesting read on the "refuseniks" from Wagner who are continuing to fight for Russia, and official Wagner channels saying they are no longer Wagner despite using the Wagner flag:
2. NYT article on Wagner soldier who fled to Norway seeking asylum and the debate on what to do with him

Quote:

His unlikely journey has made Mr. Medvedev one of only a handful of publicly known Russian combatants to seek protection in Europe after participating in the invasion. His asylum request is now forcing Norway to decide a case that pits the country’s humanitarian ethos against an increasingly assertive national security policy and solidarity with Ukraine.

To his lawyer, the credible threat of revenge facing Mr. Medvedev if he were sent back home qualifies him for asylum. And some Norwegian politicians have said that encouraging soldiers like Mr. Medvedev to defect would weaken Russia’s army and hasten the end of the war.

But as Norway evaluates his claim, it is facing pressure from activists in Ukraine and Western Europe, who say giving safe haven in Europe to Russian fighters, especially mercenaries like Mr. Medvedev, fails to hold Russians accountable for the invasion. And the former fighter may have complicated his own request with bar fights and detentions in Norway, and by briefly posting a video on YouTube suggesting he wanted to return to Russia.

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1...787243000.html

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/05/28/w...y-ukraine.html

Guardian article on human rights lawyers collecting data to accuse Russia of deliberately starving Ukrainians in three phases:

attacks on people going to supermarkets, blockading and bombing relief corridors
(intentional) "destruction of food and water supplies as well as energy sources across Ukraine"
"attempts to prevent or restrict exports of Ukrainian food"

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...ion-in-ukraine

Quote:

Human rights lawyers working with Ukraine’s public prosecutor are preparing a war crimes dossier to submit to the international criminal court (ICC) accusing Russia of deliberately causing starvation during the 18-month-long conflict.

The aim is to document instances where the Russian invaders used hunger as a weapon of war, providing evidence for the ICC to launch the first prosecution of its kind that could indict the Russian president, Vladimir Putin.

Poland and Ukraine work out agreement for the grain issue:

Spoiler:

1. Republican ad to air to in USA in support of sending aid to Ukraine
2. Some senators think Ukraine should hold elections
3. Senator McCarthy backtracking his position on sending aid to Ukraine

Spoiler:

Quote

09-26-2023 , 03:47 AM

#95

Bluegrassplayer

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1. Ukraine claims "Russian Black Sea Fleet admiral Viktor Sokolov died in the missile strike on the Fleet's headquarters, along with 34 more officers. 105 more were wounded."
2. Kyiv Post claims "Russian officers helped Ukraine strike the headquarters of the Black Sea Fleet in exchange for a monetary reward"
3. UK MOD on the situation
4. NYT article on Ukraine using the attacks to clear the Black Sea allowing Ukrainian grain to be shipped out

Spoiler:

1. Extremely realistic inflatable Russian decoy
2. Ukrainian FPV discovers a Russian hideout and flies inside it to blow up
3. Destruction of Russian observation post
4. Odesa anti air defense last night
5. FPV destroys a Russian boat

Spoiler:

1. Long thread on Verbove
2. Another long thread on Verbove

Spoiler:

Long thread on Russia recruiting for units designed to "designed to storm fortifications and conduct reconnaissance in the immediate rear of the enemy."

Quote:

"There were a lot of problems in the initial phase due to the fact that scouts were not used for their intended purpose, but as assault troops. Because of this, many high-class specialists were lost."

Previously, Russia relied on mobilised convicts to man 'Storm Z' stormtrooper units. They have become notorious for taking huge casualties due to brutal commanders sending them into seemingly futile assaults.

However, it seems that Russia is running out of expendable convict soldiers. Izvestia comments that "now they will officially make stormtroopers not only from ex-convicts, but also from mobilised, contract and volunteer soldiers."

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1...823232387.html

Long thread on military police stealing from Russian soldiers

Quote:

An incident last week in which a military policeman was filmed extorting Russian soldiers in a UAZ-452 van was reportedly just the tip of the iceberg. Soldiers are complaining that they are systematically being robbed in occupied southern Ukraine.

Commenting on the video, the Wagner-affiliated Grey Zone blog says that such incidents happen "several times a week" in the occupied Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions. Military police are reportedly stealing aid supplies, quadcopters and cars for their own use or to resell.

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1...851224368.html

Quote

09-26-2023 , 08:57 PM

#96

Bluegrassplayer

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Biden's detailed list of 9 reforms Ukraine needs to do in order to keep getting military aid:

Spoiler:

BBC article on Ukrainian military's high casualty rates, average age of men serving getting older, not much leave and other issues:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66881269

Insider on recent reports on the children kidnapped from Ukraine and brought to Russia for brainwashing:

Quote:

An estimate from the Yale School of Public Health puts the number of Ukrainian children that have been displaced or deported since the war began in the hundreds of thousands, including at least 6,000 who have been held in a series of Russian camps and ordered to undergo "re-education" programs to make their personal and political views more pro-Russia. Because Russian forces have targeted Ukrainian orphanages and other vulnerable populations, the number of taken children is likely "significantly higher," according to the Yale report.

In January, Russia claimed 728,000 children had arrived in the country since the invasion began — a number that likely includes children who evacuated into the country with their families. An official estimate from the Ukrainian government puts the total number of forcibly displaced kids at just under 20,000. Though some 18,000 have been found, per Ukraine's count, more than 500 are counted among the dead, and 1,241 "disappeared."

Russia operates at least 43 known facilities dedicated to providing "re-education," military training, and pro-Russia academic instruction to Ukrainian children forcibly removed from their homes, the Yale report indicated.

Children who have been rescued from the camps describe being forbidden to speak Ukrainian, being forced to listen to the Russian national anthem repeatedly, and being lied to and told their parents had abandoned them, according to firsthand accounts collected by the "Children of War" project compiled by Ukraine's Ministry of Reintegration of Temporarily Occupied Territories, established in 2016 following Russia's annexation of Crimea.

https://www.businessinsider.com/ukra...ar-cime-2023-9

Kyiv Post on the recent UN commission to explore war crimes:

Quote:

UN investigators probing violations in Ukraine since Russia's invasion warned on Monday that some rhetoric transmitted by Russian media could amount to incitement to genocide.

Speaking before the UN Human Rights Council, the head of the investigation team, Erik Mose, voiced concern "about allegations of genocide in Ukraine".

"For instance, some of the rhetoric transmitted in Russian state and other media may constitute incitement to genocide," he said, adding that the team was "continuing its investigations on such issues."

Quote:

The team had also collected more evidence indicating "widespread and systematic" use of torture by Russian armed forces, commission member Pablo de Greiff told reporters.

The torture was mainly taking place in detention centres controlled by Russian authorities, and was in some cases so brutal the victims died, he said.

"Not having access to places of detention under the control of the Russian Federation, it is impossible to quantify exactly the number of people that may have died as a result of this practice," he said, adding that it appeared to be "a fairly large number."

Rape and other sexual violence was also widespread. In the Kherson region, the commission found that "Russian soldiers raped and committed sexual violence against women of ages ranging from 19 to 83 years." Mose said.

Quote:

The cases of abuse found on the Ukrainian side largely involved the use of explosive weapons that affect civilian populations and mistreatment of detained Russian soldiers, the investigators said.

But Mose stressed that there was no comparison to variety and vast numbers of violations committed on the Russian side.

https://www.kyivpost.com/post/21982

AP article on it:

https://apnews.com/article/russia-uk...3f889e98f8b652

Quote

09-27-2023 , 02:10 AM

#97

Henry_Sugar

grinder

Join Date: Feb 2012 Posts: 487

A recent update on how strongly China-Russia relations continue to favor the Chinese...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jKLSLTMu_Ao

Quote

09-27-2023 , 03:14 AM

#98

Bluegrassplayer

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That was fascinating, thanks for sharing. Who is the creator of this video?

I love some of the sayings and while most are easy to figure out, I couldn't figure out "wait for weather by the sea".

Cliffs:

Russia has been selling natural gas to China at a loss for years

China took advantage of Russia being in a difficult position due to sanctions to buy oil heavily discounted. When Iran offered more discounted prices in June, Russian sales dropped by half

Similar story with coal with Russia subsidizing it to keep coal companies profitable

Similar story with Russian fish industry. China is their biggest importer, when they stopped importing in 2020 they had nowhere else to go. They are now selling at a discount and if China were to pause imports again they would have nowhere to go.

Since the sanctions began timber prices are down 25% and continuing to fall

Not sure I understood the arctic project correctly, but it looked like the sanctions caused the Russian company, Novatek, to move from a USA supplier to a Chinese supplier for high tech machinery which increased the cost by 20%, and will likely provide lower quality products

"trade turnover" increased by 70% with China, but this is not a good indicator for trade with China since it is so heavily reliant on these raw materials which are sold at a discount or even a loss meanwhile China is doing the opposite: selling Chinese products like cars and construction equipment to Russia at a high profit margin.

China is not investing money in Russia past getting more raw materials for cheap

Ruble will continue to fall as everyone who can remove money is doing so

Growing economic problems in China means none of this is likely to change

Since it's illegal to talk about this and the data is not published publicly the creator of this video had to go through individual companies one by one to collect the data

Quote

09-27-2023 , 04:43 AM

#99

Henry_Sugar

grinder

Join Date: Feb 2012 Posts: 487

Quote:

That was fascinating, thanks for sharing. Who is the creator of this video?

I love some of the sayings and while most are easy to figure out, I couldn't figure out "wait for weather by the sea".

It's Vladimir Milov, a former official in Yeltsin's cabinet and then deputy minister of Energy for a time during Putin's first term.

At which point of the video?

Quote:

Not sure I understood the arctic project correctly, but it looked like the sanctions caused the Russian company, Novatek, to move from a USA supplier to a Chinese supplier for high tech machinery which increased the cost by 20%, and will likely provide lower quality products

Correct. He reminded viewers about Novatek's Yamal LNG project. China financed part of it for a 30% stake and demanded--and received--from the Russian government a 0% rate on severance taxes and no import tariffs for the equipment/technology the Chinese provided for the project.

Quote

09-27-2023 , 11:28 AM

#100

Bluegrassplayer

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Join Date: Sep 2007 Posts: 38,806

I didn't time stamp it unfortunately, probably just a poor translation. That's a great resource, thanks for posting it.

Russian soldier in Bakhmut axis describes their counterattacks as "Zerg rushes with no progress"

Spoiler:

1. Video released of Admiral of the Black Sea Fleet who was thought to be dead in the Storm Shadows attack
2. Insider article on ATESH, a Ukrainian resistance group in Crimea, claiming that they got the information for the officer meeting from officers who upset over not receiving pay :

Spoiler:

1. Multi post thread on the importance of trains for Russian logistics and why they are difficult to stop:
2. Russia appears to be building a railway from Mariupol to western Donetsk

Spoiler:

Quote

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