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09-02-2023 , 07:10 PM

#51

Phat Mack

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Is there a short answer to the question: "Isn't the Abrams obsolete?"?

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09-02-2023 , 09:06 PM

#52

Bluegrassplayer

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It mostly boils down to "obsolete" is better than no tank at all. The military generally plans decades out so "obsolete" means more that it will be truly obsolete after 2040. It's almost on par with the Leopard 2s currently being used, and is far better than the Leopard 1s.

A major part of the reason it's "obsolete" is that it weighs 70 tons which is too much to transport it if the enemy is trying to shoot down your transports, but in this conflict that's only a factor once the tank is in Ukraine, so it seems they can work around that issue.

Another major reason is that its main gun is too small to pierce more advanced armor. Tank vs tank has been rare in Ukraine, and Russia is largely fielding older models where this is not an issue anyways.

I don't think that any tank in Ukraine has proper top and underbelly armor since UAVs and anti-tank mines were not as much of a concern when they were being made.

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09-02-2023 , 09:15 PM

#53

Phat Mack

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my thinking was that they are pretty much death traps with no offensive upside. I was surprised to learn that there were any post-javelin tank deployments. But they have only lost 5 leopards...

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09-02-2023 , 09:25 PM

#54

Bluegrassplayer

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Before the counteroffensive artillery followed by landmines were the worst threats, I think after the counteroffensive started that flipped. After that UAVs are the third biggest threat and ATGMs are fourth place. I'm unsure why that is. They have a lot of offensive upside.

BTW just read that USA is sending depleted uranium, so that would help against armor.

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09-02-2023 , 09:39 PM

#55

Bluegrassplayer

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1. Russian soldier complaining about Ukraine's advance on Verbove and also the many issues that Popov brought up earlier

2. Video from Verbove:

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Ukraine Chief of Intelligence, Budanov's recent interview:

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1. Ukraine's opinion on why Russia want's "peace" now

2. Same argument, looking at Russian propagandists

3. Putin could end the war and face minimal baclash

4. Long thread on peace with Russia:

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Large building burning in St. Petersburg:

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Rear artillery efforts to protect against lancets:

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USA sending depleted uranium shells:

https://www.reuters.com/world/us-sen...es-2023-09-01/

Quote:

The rounds, which could help destroy Russian tanks, are part of a new military aid package for Ukraine set to be unveiled in the next week. The munitions can be fired from U.S. Abrams tanks that, according to a person familiar with the matter, are expected be delivered to Ukraine in the coming weeks.

[...]

Although Britain sent depleted uranium munitions to Ukraine earlier this year, this would be the first U.S. shipment of the ammunition and will likely stir controversy. It follows an earlier decision by the Biden administration to provide cluster munitions to Ukraine, despite concerns over the dangers such weapons pose to civilians.

The use of depleted uranium munitions has been fiercely debated, with opponents like the International Coalition to Ban Uranium Weapons saying there are dangerous health risks from ingesting or inhaling depleted uranium dust, including cancers and birth defects.
A by-product of uranium enrichment, depleted uranium is used for ammunition because its extreme density gives rounds the ability to easily penetrate armor plating and self-ignite in a searing cloud of dust and metal.

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09-03-2023 , 11:03 AM

#56

Bluegrassplayer

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Popov apparently still talking to commanders on the frontline, tells them to stand their ground against Gerasimov's poor handling of the war:

Spoiler:

1. Thread on the security lines
2. Claim that the majority of the defenses were on the first line, now breached:

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Ukrainians praising Challenger tanks:

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Grim article on the Ukrainian units where Russia is attacking Ukraine in the northeast section and how their NATO training did little to prepare them for battle:

https://kyivindependent.com/new-brig...harkiv-oblast/

Quote:

Before January, the 32nd didn't exist, and the vast majority of its soldiers were civilians who had never shot anyone. Many did not want to be in the army.

This brigade is deployed to Kharkiv Oblast, over an hour east of Kupiansk — where Russian forces have conducted a big push over the past month and a half. Russian forces were alleged to have up to 100,000 troops that way.

Soldiers from different brigades told the Kyiv Independent that the Russians in this area are experienced and well-equipped soldiers, extensively stocked with artillery shells and MLRS rockets.

Soldiers from the 32nd are open about how in over their heads they often feel. The infantrymen talk about being outmatched by the competent and seemingly fearless Russian troops they saw on this axis of attack.

"Everything is not like what you read in daily briefings and on the news," said Volodymyr, an infantry sergeant with the brigade, who was in the thick of the fighting.

Like most units, the 32nd is starved for vehicles and artillery ammo. Most of the good equipment is deployed to the counteroffensive on the Zaporizhzhia front.

It also lacks battlefield experience, from low ranks to commanding officers. Nor do they have many options to draw on somebody else's. The year 2022 ground down Ukraine's supply of experienced warfighters to the point where there can be said to be a shortage.

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However, the same soldiers who spoke to the Kyiv Independent didn't hide their scorn about how the training prepared them for a war that doesn't exist in Ukraine. They said the NATO officers don't understand the reality on the ground.

"A NATO infantryman knows he's supported and can advance with the confidence that there's a high likelihood that he won't be killed or maimed," Ihor said.

The NATO way of war calls for massive preparatory airstrikes and artillery barrages and demining before the infantry is sent in, he added.

It usually doesn't work that way in Ukraine.

Between the country's tiny, old air force, ancient T-64s, and a continuing shortage of artillery shells and infantry vehicles, it often falls to infantry to hold the line against Russian probing attacks and occasional assaults, supported by overwhelming artillery and huge numbers of drones.

Troops said they sometimes struggle to apply NATO small unit tactics because there often isn't enough cover to do so.

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09-04-2023 , 06:51 AM

#57

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1. Ukraine's Minister of Defense dismissed.
2. Why he was considered corrupt or incompetent:

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Ex Wagnerites denied pay, veteran status, and kicked out of hospitals:

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Oil depot on fire in St. Petersburg:

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Ukraine claims to have broken through most difficult part of Russian defenses:

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Former British General writes about how Ukraine could win sometime in 2025:

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https://www.ft.com/content/be5d133b-...f-256337f05b6c

Quote:

Ukraine’s current counteroffensive will not throw Russia out — not that anyone expected it to. Nor is it likely to cut the occupation in half before the winter, which might have been one of the more optimistic aims. It has, however, shown how the Russian army can be beaten. Not in 2023, but in 2024 or 2025. Thus the refrain among western allies of supporting Kyiv “for as long as it takes”.

The modest progress achieved this summer shows that, while overcoming a well-prepared conventional battlefield defence may be one of the hardest operations in war, it can be done. The Ukrainian military has only breached the first line of trenches to take Robotyne in the south, having battled for weeks through minefields to get there. Progress is about eight miles with another 55 miles to go (through three lines of defences) before reaching the sea. The aim is to cut the land bridge to Crimea. To the north and south of Bakhmut, advances amount to about five miles with 10 miles to the Russian main defensive line and 60 miles to the border.

[...]

First, Kyiv must not press for substantial battlefield success before the means exist to deliver it. War is never best conducted as a close-run thing: Ukraine must be made stronger and Russia weaker or there will be stalemate.
Second, relentless pressure must be maintained on the Russian occupation throughout the winter. This means sustaining the successful “bite and hold” operations (advancing in short bounds to reduce casualties and stay within artillery and air defence cover), within the limits of sustainable manpower and ammunition supply. Pinning Russian forces to the front will steadily erode strength, will and reserves. If the Red Army’s morale is already poor, make it poorer.
Third, Ukraine must systemically weaken Russia’s military grip on its territories into 2024 and beyond. Smashing the artillery arm is important, and so too are attacks on deeper targets across occupied Ukraine. The objective is to destroy Russian military capability faster than it can be replaced, rendering it unable to withstand a stronger future Ukrainian offensive. Kyiv is constrained by the western bar on use of its equipment and munitions in Russia itself — but it must still apply its own ingenuity and courage to strike hard beyond its borders.

Fourth, the Russian Black Sea Fleet must be neutralised as an engine for Moscow’s devastating cruise missile strikes and a key constraint on the export of grain. Ukraine’s own missile strikes and rapidly expanding maritime drone capability can damage Russian ships faster than they are replaced. By spring 2024, the Black Sea Fleet should be playing no major part in this war.
The fifth and most important aspect is to accept that this war turns on the defence industrial capacity of the west and Ukraine as the determining factor in military success. More could be provided from stocks, but Ukraine’s campaign now relies on allies ramping up their defence industries. Ammunition from newly expanded production lines will take until at least mid-2024 to arrive in quantity; this should enable a major turning point in Kyiv’s offensive capability.

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09-05-2023 , 01:23 AM

#58

Bluegrassplayer

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First confirmed loss of Challenger 2:

Spoiler:

1. Possible signs of Ukraine further penetrating Russian defenses near Verbove
2. Another look at that info
3. Markers where the fighting is occurring
4. Multi post thread on what this means

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Moscow train station on fire

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1. Shoigu ordered to mobilize 200k soldiers
2. ISW on Russian recruitment efforts
3. More claims that Crimea will have a mobilization soon
4. Ukraine claiming Crimean students will begin military training

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AP article on why Russia refuses to reinstate the grain deal, using it as a bargaining chip for their demands from April:

https://apnews.com/article/russia-uk...source=Twitter

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NYT article on Kim Jung-Un meeting with Putin over arms deal:

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/09/04/u...a-weapons.html

Quote:

Kim Jong-un, the leader of North Korea, plans to travel to Russia this month to meet with President Vladimir V. Putin to discuss the possibility of supplying Russia with more weaponry for its war in Ukraine and other military cooperation, according to American and allied officials.

[...]

Mr. Putin wants Mr. Kim to agree to send Russia artillery shells and antitank missiles, and Mr. Kim would like Russia to provide North Korea with advanced technology for satellites and nuclear-powered submarines, the officials said. Mr. Kim is also seeking food aid for his impoverished nation.

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09-05-2023 , 01:54 AM

#59

Bluegrassplayer

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Most in depth article on the counteroffensive's first 3 months and the lessons learned from it from War on the Rocks. Long but must read for anyone interested in the counteroffensive:

https://warontherocks.com/2023/09/pe...lmri8lfxnew6y6

Quote:

As we and others predicted, this kind of operation was bound to be difficult and costly. Without air superiority, a decisive advantage in fires, and limited enablers to breach Russian lines, any military would have faced similar struggles in such an operation. This is especially so against a force that had time to entrench, preparing a layered defense replete with minefields and fortifications. Ukraine’s military changed tactics, from initially trying to breach Russian lines in a mechanized assault to taking a more familiar attritional approach that achieved incremental gains. Over time this approach can work, and has worked for the Ukrainian armed forces in the past, but each battle has its own context with a different set of conditions, geography, and forces in play.

Ukraine needs more air defense, mine clearing, and similar enabling capabilities. Western assistance over the past 18 months has enabled Ukraine, but it has also limited Ukraine’s options, resulting in undertrained units having to go up against a well-prepared defense without the benefit of air support. However, the challenges of this are not only due to capability and capacity shortcomings. The Ukrainian military continues to struggle with scaling offensive operations, and conducting combined arms operations at the battalion level and above, with most attacks being at the level of a platoon or company. These are important areas to address in Western training programs, as we have discussed with our colleagues in various episodes of the War on the Rocks podcast and the Russia Contingency.

There is no single answer to the challenges Ukraine faces. The problem cannot be reduced to a lack of Western tactical aviation. The more important factors remain ammunition, training, providing the necessary enablers, and effective resource management in a war of attrition. War requires regular adaptation, since few plans survive contact with the enemy, but the process of adaptation equally requires identifying what has worked and what has not. The ability to discuss these challenges openly (which, in our view, doesn’t include leaks to newspapers from behind a veil of anonymity) is what separates successful militaries from those like Russia’s, which often falsifies success and buries bad news. Indeed, a poor understanding of how Ukraine’s military fights, and of the operating environment writ large, may be leading to false expectations, misplaced advice, and unfair criticism in Western official circles.

Ukraine’s summer offensive is coming down to the balance of attrition over time, which side has more reserves, and who can better manage their combat power in a prolonged slugfest. In order to sustain Ukraine’s war effort, Washington should support Kyiv’s preferred approach, which means resourcing ammunition for an intensive fight, providing the requisite long-range strike systems, and supporting enablers. However, it should also learn from this experience, tackling long-term issues such as training, helping Ukraine improve its ability to conduct operations at scale, and transitioning to employ Western airpower along with the associated organizational changes to make it effective. It is also critical for Western countries to draw the right lessons from the development and performance of Ukraine’s new brigades to improve future training efforts. The details in discussed in this article are based on open sources and our own field research in Ukraine, but do not disclose anything that is not publicly available about ongoing operations.

BBC article on diplomacy under Putin. How it went from him discussing joining NATO in 2000, to being aggressive towards NATO in 2007, and how Putin went from accepting differing views from his diplomats to telling them what to say:

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Putin's Russia is already past their "Weimar Germany era"

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Ukrainian students learning to operate drones:

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Very good NYT article on what the fighting is like:

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It’s a hard way to fight a war — village by village, house by house — with no guarantee of success. Once taken and secured, however, the surviving Russian fortifications provide a base for the Ukrainians to plot their next move forward.

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Each settlement presents many of the same challenges, so the marines map out each assault and drill as much as they can before launching an attack.

“The most important thing is to hold the first street,” Denis said. “Then we send an additional drone that looks at each building. Our soldiers are divided into two groups: the fire group and the maneuver group. The fire group shoots Russians hiding on different floors of the building and then the maneuver group clears it. This is how we move house after house.”

If the assault fails, he said, they call in artillery strikes and destroy the house.

The Russians are also adapting, the marines said, including using new tactics to make the already treacherous minefields even more lethal.

They will lace a pasture filled with mines with a flammable agent, for instance. Once the Ukrainians get to work clearing an opening, the Russians will drop a grenade from a drone, igniting a sea of fire and explosions.

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Very interesting, quick Zeihan video on what Ukraine's use of drones means for this war and Taiwan:

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Article addressing the growing "Pacific First" sentiment in Washington to only provide Ukraine with weapons which are of no use in a potential Taiwan conflict, addressing comparison to Vietnam:

https://samf.substack.com/p/american...m_medium=email

Quote:

Many critics of the Biden Administration’s stance on Ukraine take care not to make excuses for Putin but they do take seriously his stubbornness and wonder whether it is the best use of American resources to sustain Ukraine’s fight. Because they insist on an unsentimental assessment of American interests they often identify as ‘Realists’.

[...]

This reflects a common theme in Washington as the US tries to put the long counterinsurgency campaigns in Iraq and Afghanistan behind it. Now the big challenge of grand strategy is posed by the ongoing rivalry with China, and the possibility that it could turn into a full war, as much as the conduct of the Russo-Ukraine War.

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09-06-2023 , 02:25 AM

#60

Bluegrassplayer

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1. Long thread on how Russia's loss of experienced troops and replacing them with inexperienced mobilized soldiers is having huge consequences, especially regarding artillery and why the vast majority of resources were put into the first line of Russian defenses

2. 1 minute ISW video on what it means that Russia is laterally redeploying units, instead of sending in reserves

3. ISW on Russians continuing to complain about lack of counterbattery, the issue Popov brought up:

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1. Estimates that 500k Ukrainians fled Ukraine during 2023

2. Ukraine might attempt to order extradition of Ukrainians that fled mobilization from foreign countries:

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Russian head of customs and FSB agent (Federal Security Service, counterintelligence, cyber security etc) in critical condition after drone strike on his apartment:

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How Ukraine's Defense Minister stepping down shows that Ukraine is serious about fighting corruption:

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Belgium not delivering F-16s:

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1. Russian vs Ukrainian tank losses

2. Oryx on Russian visually confirmed vehicle losses:

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1. Russia forcing migrant workers to fight

2. Reuters article on human trafficking ring coercing Cubans to fight in Russia:

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Last edited by Bluegrassplayer; 09-06-2023 at 02:35 AM.

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09-06-2023 , 05:03 AM

#61

Bluegrassplayer

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1. UAV does recon for a HIMARS strike
2. Cluster munitions strike on Russian artillery
3. FPV destroys Russian tank
4. Russian Volunteer Corps raiding Russia in Bryansk:

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1. Russia telegram concerned about Verbove
2. Advance to west of Verbove as well
3. ISW on advances in that area
4. High detail map of the area:

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Telegram reports that Ukraine is attacking Novomaiorske.

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1. Diehl, a German air defense company, on their air defense systems use in Kyiv and upping production
2. First batch of Rheinmetall ammunition arrives in Ukraine
3. Mercedes delivers 100 special offroad trucks
4. Article "Finland’s Patria weighs making combat vehicles in Ukraine"

Spoiler:

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09-07-2023 , 11:18 PM

#62

Bluegrassplayer

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Fascinating article from The Atlantic on Russia taking over Chornobyl during the opening stages of the invasion. It's an interesting story with a lot of bizarre details:

https://www.theatlantic.com/internat...saster/675083/

Explosions in Rostov:

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Minor gains near Verbove:

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1. Surovikin assigned outside of the military
2. Another general arrested:

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09-08-2023 , 05:20 AM

#63

Bluegrassplayer

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Hack "reveals" that the separatist movement in Ukraine was orchestrated by Putin:

https://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/uk...ecrets-n673956

Quote:

A Ukrainian group calling itself Cyber Hunta has released more than a gigabyte of emails and other material from the office of one of Vladimir Putin’s top aides, Vladislav Surkov, that show Russia’s fingerprints all over the separatist movement in Ukraine.

While the Kremlin has denied the relationship between Moscow and the separatists, the emails show in great detail how Russia controlled virtually every detail of the separatist effort in the Russian-speaking regions of Ukraine, which has torn the country apart and led to a Russian takeover of Crimea.

Quote:

Hidden in the one gigabyte file are a variety of materials that provided evidence of Russian involvement at the highest levels in the war in eastern Ukraine, which has taken the lives of 10,000 people, including the 298 passengers and crew of Malaysian Flight 17, shot down by a separatist missile in July 2014 over Ukraine.

There is a list of casualties in the Donbass region of Ukraine sent from a high-ranking separatist official, and a list of candidates for office in a sham election. One email notes that the individuals with asterisks next to their name were “checked by us” and are “especially recommended.” Days later, those same names were announced as having been “elected.”

There are expense reports and a proposal for a government press office in Donetsk, scene of some of the fiercest fighting -- a three-person operation for separatist propaganda, with an editor, reporter and webmaster.

One U.S. official told NBC News that the material confirms much of what the U.S. believed was going on at the time, that the Kremlin was running the separatists at a micro-level. In fact, the official noted that Surkov’s name was the first on a list of Russians and Ukrainians placed under executive sanctions by President Obama in March 2014, citing his role in the separatist movement. The action froze his U.S. assets in the United States and banned him from entering the country. Similar sanctions were imposed by the European Union.

EDA (European Defence Agency) signs joint procurement contracts for 155mm ammo and what it means:

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1. WAPO article on Elon getting involved with Starlink, and then pulling the plug on an attack on the Russian fleet, fearing it would escalate the war too much
2. Ukraine's take on Elon preventing Ukraine from destroying part of Russia's navy:

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1. GRAPHIC FPV strike near Verbove
2. HIMARS strike ammo depot
3. Anti-aircraft gun hitting a Russian Shahed drone
4. GRAPHIC Russians hit while fleeing from Klishchiivka
5. Ukraine striking Russian anti-air defense systems
6. GRAPHIC failed russian assault. :

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1. Explosion in Rostov, potentially the Russia's Southern Military District HQ
2. Federal Customs Service in Moscow on fire

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1. The whole thread is good, but especially the part about NATO training imo
2. Long post on the disconnect between NATO training and the Ukraine battlefield, especially regarding drones:

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Cuba arrests 17 involved in sending Cubans to fight in Russia:

https://www.reuters.com/world/cuba-a...9-08/?rpc=401&

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09-08-2023 , 11:54 AM

#64

Phat Mack

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This training business is going to prove invaluable to NATO and the democracies in general. They are learning a bunch of good **** here.

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09-09-2023 , 09:05 AM

#65

Bluegrassplayer

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“Today we train Ukrainian soldiers, tomorrow they will be training us. There is no other army in Europe with experience to fight Russians.” - Krišjānis Kariņš, Prime Minister of Latvia

Great quote on it. It'll definitely prove valuable in the long run, I hope that they can figure out a way to get Ukrainians the proper training in the short term.

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09-09-2023 , 09:21 AM

#66

Bluegrassplayer

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Russian airlines struggling due to Moscow airport constantly being shut down:

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Romania, USA and Ukraine to do a joint Navy drill in the Black Sea:

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25k civilian hostages estimated to be held by Russia:

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Great thread that has been doing reports since August 21st on Robotyne and Verbove:

https://twitter.com/Danspiun/status/...166088788?s=20

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09-10-2023 , 07:48 AM

#67

Bluegrassplayer

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1. Ukraine on the psychological and practical need for ATACMS
2. ABC claims Ukraine likely to receive them soon:

Spoiler:

1. Russian thermobaric system destroyed
2. Two Ukrainian tanks attacking a treeline while being attacked by lancets and ATGMS
3. Graphic footage of a failed Russian assault:

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Long thread on Russia's fuel crisis:

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1. UK MOD on fighting around Robotyne
2. Updated map of the area, showing Ukrainian progress

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Long thread on the fate of Mariupol:

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ISW on Russia's wartime elections:

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Quote

09-10-2023 , 10:23 AM

#68

Phat Mack

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I am really curious as to what kind of shell you can fire into a tree line like that.

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09-11-2023 , 04:32 AM

#69

Bluegrassplayer

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I never really thought about it. Would it require a special kind of shell?

1. Analysis of Ukraine's strategy and what it means that Russia is deploying the 76th, an offensive unit, in defense
2. What the 76th POWs claimed:

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Ukraine pre-dawn raid:

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Interesting WSJ article on Putin trying to exchange for an assassin that was arrested in Germany:

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In Russian election, a opposition party member has his name buried in the middle of other names similar to his, all self nominated:

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1. UN official calls Russia torture a state policy
2. British national serving in Ukraine films himself and hour before getting captured and shows the after shots from his torture
3. UN article on Russia torturing Ukrainians:

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Quote

09-12-2023 , 01:09 AM

#70

Bluegrassplayer

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1. Leopard vs two T-72s from the beginning of the counteroffensive. One of the rare tank vs tank fights seen in Ukraine
2. Three small Ukrainian boats against a Russian plane
3. Russia uses incendiary munitions on Ukrainian forest position
4. camouflaged Russian T80 destroyed by FPV
5. CNN article on use of decoys:

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1. Russian channel claims Opytne under AFU control
2. Russian channel claiming Russians accidentally shelled the Russians fleeing from Opytne

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1. Gif showing progress around Robotyne:

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Russian channel complaining about lack of Russian artillery in Kherson region:

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1. Ukraine claims Russia about to start a mass mobilization:
2. Business Insider article on the impact of the young and educated fleeing Russia
3. UK MOD on both:

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Quote

09-12-2023 , 07:15 AM

#71

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Ukrainian claims Russia bombs her city, named New York, near the border of Russian occupied Ukraine every year on 9/11 as a joke:

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FT article on how recent corruption scandals show Ukraine is taking fighting corruption seriously:

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Ukraine claims it retook control of the gas drilling platforms in the Black Sea called Bokyo Towers

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1. Reuters article on USA considers shipping longer range cluster munitions
2. NYT article on cluster munitions:

https://www.reuters.com/world/us-eye...ls-2023-09-11/

Quote:

After seeing the success of cluster munitions delivered in 155 mm artillery rounds in recent months, the U.S. is considering shipping either or both Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS) that can fly up to 190 miles (306 km), or Guided Multiple Launch Rocket System (GMLRS) missiles with a 45-mile range packed with cluster bombs, three U.S. officials said.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/09/07/w...munitions.html

Kyiv Post claiming Russia increasing price discount of oil to China

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1. Guardian article on monument to founder of Soviet secret police unveiled. It was torn down in 1991, and another statue of him was torn down in Poland:
2. BBC video on the recent idolization of Stalin in Russia:

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Russian propagandist wondering if Ukrainians carry a defective genome, or if they can be saved through Russian propaganda:

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Quote

09-13-2023 , 02:38 AM

#72

Bluegrassplayer

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1. Satellite imagery of Russian repair dock in occupied Sevastopol which was hit by Ukraine
2. Pic of one of the ships that was hit (zoomed in pic in comments
3. Video and pics of the fire
4. List of vessels at the port
5. Video of one of the explosions. Video of Sevastopol air defenses in comments
6. Russian MOD confirms two ships hit
7. Multi-post thread on the missile used

Spoiler:

1. SBU released video of various drone strikes
2. Strike on Russian UAV base
3. Group of Russians hit by ATGM
4. GRAPHIC drone footage around Bakhmut

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ISW on alleged Kremlin insider talking the politics around mobilization:

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Map and assessment of fighting near Donetsk airport:

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CNN article on ATACMS, why they are important, Ukraine has proven to use Storm Shadows responsibly, why USA is reluctant to send weapons it is currently using elsewhere, and USA constantly lagging on sending arms

https://edition.cnn.com/2023/09/11/p...ine/index.html

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09-13-2023 , 09:31 AM

#73

Bluegrassplayer

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7 minute The Sun video interviewing Leopard operators:

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Great multipost explanation on how Ukraine is clearing the trenches behind the breach near Verbove:

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Rheinmetall field hospital:

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FT article on Europe struggling to increase their security spending:

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Swedish article about sending Gripen aircraft to Ukraine:

https://sverigesradio.se/artikel/reg...n-till-ukraina

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09-14-2023 , 12:37 AM

#74

Bluegrassplayer

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1. Strike on dry dock likely from Stormshadows
2. Hodges on the multiple factors in making the strike a success
3. High res satellite image of the damage
4. Consequence of hitting the dock itself, not just the ship "Now here's the consequence of relying on one place for maintenance. If crippled, your ships are in life support mode."

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Detailed map of Tokmak/Robotyne/Verbove:

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1. ISW on why Putin still insists he agrees with UN sanctioning N Korea
2. Russian state propaganda discussing why N Korea is so economically successful:

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Birds of Magyar flies a drone under a cope cage to destroy a tank

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09-15-2023 , 03:37 AM

#75

Bluegrassplayer

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2007 Posts: 38,783

1. Satellite image of the S400 air defense system hit by Ukraine, video of the explosion in comments
2. Estimated cost of the system is $1.2 billion
3. multi post thread on the operation. Shows before and after, the tourist photo which revealed it and info about the operation itself:

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1. ISW on the Sevastopol strike
2. More footage of the operation to take the drilling platforms
3. Another video showing the damage
4. Forbes article giving a good recap of the operation:

Quote:

On Wednesday morning, Ukrainian bomber crews fired a volley of Storm Shadow or SCALP cruise missiles at the Black Sea Fleet base in Sevastopol, in southern Crimea.

Ukrainian forces already had cleared a path for the missiles by blowing up, with a modified navy anti-ship missile, the Russian air force’s long-range S-400 air-defense battery in western Crimea—and by sending commandos to dismantle Russian sensors on a pair of captured Ukrainian oil platforms in the waters west of Crimea.

[...]

The raid was the culmination of months of effort by Ukraine and its allies to arm the bomber regiment’s Sukhois, reduce Russian defenses and then strike when two valuable ships were most vulnerable: when they were out of the water.

In 19 months of hard fighting with an enemy that has no major warships, the Black Sea Fleet has lost a cruiser, three amphibious ships, a submarine, a supply ship and several patrol boats and landing craft. It cannot make good these losses as long as the war continues and Turkey prohibits the passage of warships through the Bosphorous Strait into the Black Sea.

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Ukrainian reconnaissance UAV hit by Russian anti aircraft and survives:

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Area around Robotyne likely stalled after Russian reinforcements arrived:

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Russian soldier complaining about having no artillery for his position near Bakhmut:

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The change in Shoigu's rhetoric from the beginning of the war to now:

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Long thread on drone use in Ukraine:

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But to focus on FPV- here is a clear example of when you should be careful drawing conclusions from cool snippets of action posted to social media. The specialised drone unit Adam Group which I was with reported a 10-15% rate of success on FPV flights, depending on the pilot.

Quote:

One thing noticeable in these (careful as always about conclusions) is that there seem to be more FPV attacks on infantry in their positions than in UA videos: could be a sign of more availability. Guys here fighting near Robotyne report FPVs often targeting them directly.

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Women's body armor, currently 5000 serving on front line, 42k in total:

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