Russian Invasion of Ukraine - Page 2 - House of Blogs -- Two Plus Two Poker Forums

MOSCOW, Aug 24 (Reuters) - Russian President Vladimir Putin sent his condolences to the family of Yevgeny Prigozhin on Thursday, breaking his silence after the mercenary leader's plane crashed with no survivors two months after he led a mutiny against army chiefs.

Putin's comments, which suggested he harboured decidedly mixed feelings about Wagner's mercenary boss, were the most definitive yet on Prigozhin's fate. Before he spoke, the only official statement had come from the aviation authority which said Prigozhin had been on board the downed plane.

Russian investigators have opened a probe into what happened, but have not yet said what they suspect caused the plane to suddenly fall from the sky northwest of Moscow on Wednesday evening.

Nor have they officially confirmed the identities of the 10 bodies recovered from the wreckage.

U.S. officials told Reuters that Washington is looking at a number of theories over what brought down the plane, including a surface-to-air missile.

The presumed death of Prigozhin leaves Russian President Vladimir Putin stronger in the short term, removing a powerful figure who launched a June 23-24 mutiny against the army's leadership and threatened to make him look weak.

But it would also deprive Putin of a forceful and astute player who had proved his utility to the Kremlin by sending his fighters into some of the bloodiest battles of the Ukraine war and by advancing Russian interests across Africa which are now likely to be re-organised.

It remains to be seen too how Wagner fighters, some of whom have already spoken of betrayal and foul play, react.

Pledging a thorough investigation which he said would take time, Putin said that "preliminary data" indicated that Prigozhin and other Wagner employees had been on the downed plane. The passenger list suggests that Wagner's core leadership team were flying with him too and had also perished.

Putin paid generous tribute to the renegade mercenary calling him a talented businessman who knew how to look after his own interests and who could, when asked, do his bit for the common cause.

But he also described Prigozhin as a flawed character who had made some bad mistakes.

"I want to express my most sincere condolences to the families of all the victims. It's always a tragedy," Putin said in televised remarks made during a meeting in the Kremlin with the Moscow-installed chief of Donetsk region in eastern Ukraine.

"I had known Prigozhin for a very long time, since the start of the 90s. He was a man with a difficult fate, and he made serious mistakes in life."

Wagner tents being taken down in Belarus:

Spoiler:

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08-24-2023 , 10:03 PM

#27

Bluegrassplayer

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1. ISW on the counteroffensive

Quote:

"Defenders can hold for a long time and then suddenly break, allowing an attacker to make rapid gains before the defense solidifies further to the rear. The Ukrainians aim to generate exactly this effect — and there is reason to think they can."

"Ukrainian forces are advancing in two key areas — in central Zaporizhzhia Oblast near Robotyne on the road to Tokmak and Melitopol, and in eastern Zaporizhzhia Oblast south of Velyka Novosylka on a line toward Berdyansk."

"The Ukrainians appear to have penetrated at least the forward-most belt of Russian mines and defenses in both areas, and their advance in the Robotyne area appears to be accelerating."

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"A small breach could yield relatively sudden and rapid gains. If those materialize, panic among Russian forces could multiply Ukraine’s opportunities for maintaining its momentum."

"An aspirational theory of victory is no guarantee of success. The Russians have clearly adapted to the realities of this phase of the war, and while they face serious challenges, it would be foolish to write them off."

"But it would be similarly foolish to write off this 'summer' counteroffensive — a fight that is likely to continue through the fall and into the winter."

2. Ukrainian Navy operation in Crimea

3. Russian telegram claiming a big force of Ukrainians is amassing near Tokmak

4. AFU first strikes on Tokmak

Spoiler:

1. Good read on why cheaper missiles are extremely important because some targets are too important to ignore, but do not warrant the cost of a Storm Shadow

2. 155mm artillery is so much more effective than 152mm that Ukraine's replacement of them has led to an advantage in tube artillery

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08-25-2023 , 04:27 AM

#28

Bluegrassplayer

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Two Kings and Generals videos. One on the problems facing the counteroffensive, and the other on the economies of Russia and Ukraine.

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08-25-2023 , 08:46 AM

#29

Bluegrassplayer

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1 and 2. The parallels between Putin's "peace deal" with Prig and the "peace deal" many want for Ukraine.

3. WSJ says surface to air missile was unlikely the cause. Another source said a door was found 3 KM from crash site, which could indicate a bomb.

4. Kremlin denies responsibility.

5. Message is that it's not ok to speak out against the war.

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Heinekin writes off 300 million Euro loss and exits Russia:

https://www.ft.com/content/31fe848b-...b-72f6dbf4af38

Ukrainian sea drones prevent Russian navy from functioning:

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Related to recent post on Russia's struggles with employing their spies and having to resort to more desperate tactics. Over 700 Russian diplomats accused of spying sent back to Russia:

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08-26-2023 , 03:19 AM

#30

Bluegrassplayer

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Wagner cemetery demolished:

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Russia will be revising prices on items due to recent plummet of Ruble:

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Neo-nazi group fighting for Russia refuses to continue since their leader was arrested in Finland and Putin can't protect him:

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New York Times article on how Russia is spreading pro-Russia and anti-Ukraine propaganda:

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/25/u...ropaganda.html

Quote:

Russia is intensifying its efforts to spread pro-Russia and anti-Ukraine messages in the United States and the West, using influence-laundering techniques to hide the efforts of its intelligence agencies to manipulate public opinion, according to a newly declassified American intelligence analysis.

Efforts by Russian intelligence agencies to shape public debate leading up to the 2016 U.S. election focused on methods designed to have short-term effects, like exacerbating tensions inside the United States through social media posts.

But the newly declassified U.S. analysis looks at how Russian intelligence services, in particular the Federal Security Service or F.S.B., have been secretly using allies inside nominally independent organizations to spread propaganda and cultivate ties with rising leaders, efforts that are intended to play out over long periods of time.

The intelligence analysis, which was declassified for public release, was described by U.S. officials who were authorized to disclose the information.

Russian influence operations may have been dealt something of a blow in the aftermath of Yevgeny V. Prigozhin’s mutiny against the Russian military leadership and subsequent apparent assassination. Mr. Prigozhin, in addition to running the Wagner group, a private military force, founded and funded the Internet Research Agency. Although the organization was dissolved last month — after Mr. Prigozhin’s failed rebellion — the I.R.A. had been involved in running one of the most prominent troll farms that supported the candidacy of Donald J. Trump during the 2016 election by criticizing Hillary Clinton.

But the information released by the United States on Friday is designed to show how much deeper Russian influence operations are than those efforts to sow dissent on the internet. Instead, the influence operations are focused on developing a network of young leaders who the Kremlin hopes will support Russia or spread pro-Russia messages in their home countries, efforts not unlike the Soviet Union’s spy agency’s work to develop ideological allies and informants around the world.

A U.S. official who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss the newly released material described a group of so-called co-optees, who claim to be acting independently but in fact have been used by Russian intelligence agents to conduct influence operations against the United States. These operations include programs designed to build support for Russia among Americans and Europeans along with blunter efforts like fake grass-roots protests. The newly released material focuses on four Russians who have worked with Russian intelligence, including Natalia Burlinova, who was named in a Justice Department indictment that was unsealed this year.

The indictment said Ms. Burlinova had conspired with the F.S.B. to recruit U.S. citizens from academic institutions to participate in the nongovernmental organization she founded, Creative Diplomacy. The organization bills itself as a public diplomacy program for aspiring leaders to facilitate dialogue with Russia. The organization says 80 people from a wide range of countries have attended its program.

After the indictment in June, the Treasury Department sanctioned two F.S.B. officers, including Yegor Sergeyevich Popov, who the government said was Ms. Burlinova’s handler. The Treasury Department said Mr. Popov oversaw Ms. Burlinova’s work and provided her a list of U.S. citizens to approach.

The declassified intelligence analysis said the F.S.B. had helped fund Creative Diplomacy and that it was a “grooming campaign” that Russian intelligence operatives used to build up a network of “future Western influencers” who the F.S.B. hoped would develop into Kremlin supporters.

The F.S.B. has tracked the activities of Creative Diplomacy’s alumni, some of whom have gone on to publish pro-Russia articles, the American officials said. While Ms. Burlinova has denied any ties to the Russian government, the U.S. intelligence disputed that claim.

One of the participants in Creative Diplomacy, an American who spoke on the condition of anonymity, said if he had known the program’s connections to Russian intelligence, he would not have participated. Still, he said he did not regret attending the program because it gave him a chance to speak to and question Russian officials he would not have met.

The pro-Russia slant of the program was no different than public diplomacy programs in other countries, he said, and some participants left with a worse — not better — opinion of Russia. The participant said he was not surprised to learn Ms. Burlinova was working with the F.S.B. But if the program was a Russian intelligence operation, he said, there was little for the U.S. government to be concerned about, given its ineffectiveness.

The declassified analysis singles out three others: Andrey Stepanenko, who worked for the F.S.B. from 2014 to 2019; Maksim Grigoryev, the director of the Foundation for the Study of Democracy, an organization the U.S. analysis says has spread anti-Ukrainian narratives on behalf of the Kremlin; and Anton Tsvetkov, the head of a group called Officers of Russia. The U.S. officials said Mr. Tsvetkov, at the direction of Russian intelligence, organized protests in Moscow, including one outside the U.S. Embassy.

Mr. Tsvetkov, at the behest of Russian intelligence, also organized protests against Bard College in New York State and its partnership with a St. Petersburg college; those actions eventually led to the New York school being banned in Russia by the Kremlin, which was fearful of Western influence on Russian universities. Since then, the intelligence analysis said, Mr. Tsvetkov has organized anti-Ukraine protests throughout 2022 outside various Western embassies in Russia.

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08-26-2023 , 03:57 AM

#31

Bluegrassplayer

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1. Fighting near Robotyne, near miss from drone strike on a humvee near the end

2. Visual confirmation of advancements near Robotyne

3. Claims that Russia is struggling immensely in this area:

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Gen Milley claims first line has been broken through:

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Russian complaints about situation around Dnieper river:

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Graphic video of fighting near Bakhmut, the value of drones is especially highlighted. One drone tells someone in a trench where enemies are nearby, another drops smoke on a tank so it can be targeted better:

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Very optimistic CEPA (Center for European Policy Analysis) article on Ukraine offensive and how Russian logistics could crumble if Ukraine is able to advance only a modest amount, nowhere near the entire distance to the Azov Sea:

https://cepa.org/article/ukraine-vic...han-you-think/

Quote:

Intelligence analysts may look at the map of Southern Ukraine and see distances; military planners will apply the military math and see something very different. They know that to crush the Russian army and strangle the troops in frontline fortifications, they don’t need to advance 50 miles. 10 miles will do it.

Why? Because although it would be great if Ukrainian troops broke through to the shores of the Sea of Azov, they do not have to. Instead, they can achieve a significant operational outcome by bringing Russia’s ground line of communication (GLOC) under their guns.

On or around August 22, Ukraine’s troops liberated the village of Robotyne, some 90km (around 55 miles) from the Sea of Azov, a major accomplishment given the enormous efforts of the Russian invaders to fortify and hold it.

From here, the Ukrainians need to advance by a further 10–15 km (7–10 miles), in order to range their guns on Russia’s east-west transport routes that are critical to the ability of its army and armed forces to fight. If Ukraine can interdict these road and rail links, it’s very hard to see how the Russian army can continue to fight.

This will not be easy, but it’s reasonable to think it will happen. This will be achieved using its indirect capability — first the M142 High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS) and the M270 Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (MLRS), whose reach is about 80km-90km, and later its 155 mm artillery with a range of over 40km. These are hugely more capable than Ukraine’s pre-war 152mm Soviet-style artillery that have a range of only 17–20 km.

Russia’s GLOC does not run along the sands of the Azov Sea’s shores but rather inland and, therefore, closer to Ukraine’s advances. The M14 highway running east-west, and largely parallel to the coastline, is about 7km–10km from the shore. Nearby is the broader logistics corridor where the Russians place supply and ammunition dumps, fuel storage, higher-echelon command posts, reserve units, and logistic railheads.

This logistics corridor becomes increasingly narrow for every inch the Ukrainians liberate. Once the Russian assets mentioned above are within Ukrainian MLRS reach, the Russian senior leadership will have an almost impossible choice to make — will they be able to sustain operations west of Melitopol when every aspect of their fighting effort is under fire?

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08-26-2023 , 10:17 PM

#32

Bluegrassplayer

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1. ISW report on the exhausted Russians defended Robotyne; several claims of this now

2. Report on how fighting is now progressing south of Robotyne

3. Ukraine's view on how the fight in progressing:

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Excellent thread on the defensive lines:

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Evidence that Russia has committed more reserves, one of which is their best:

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1. McCain predicting Russia's invasion in 2014, discusses how being afraid of provoking Putin provokes Putin.

2. Kasparov pointing out how Putin works 16 years ago:

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The three main points of Russian misinformation at this moment:

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08-27-2023 , 02:08 AM

#33

Bluegrassplayer

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Second ship leaves Odessa:

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Why cluster rockets for HIMARS would be beneficial for Ukraine in attacking artillery and logistics:

Quote:

He argues that what these rocket artillery systems need now is a firepower boost from M26 cluster rockets, which would allow Ukraine to increase the lethality of its HIMARS and turn them into an area weapon that could threaten Russian artillery, crippling a key capability in this fight. Cluster rockets would be a step up from the deadly 155 mm shells called dual-purpose improved conventional munitions (DPICMs) — commonly known as cluster munitions — that the US recently delivered to Ukraine.

Washington "should be providing DPICM for the HIMARS rockets," Dan Rice, who lobbied for the Pentagon to send cluster munitions as a special advisor to Ukraine's military leadership, told Insider. "It's the biggest thing of this war."

Quote:

With Russia's battlefield tactics dependent on its ability to maintain high rates of artillery fire, Ukraine used the HIMARS to degrade it by battering Moscow's ammunition storage, but not necessarily the artillery pieces themselves. Ukraine's HIMARS forced Russia to move ammunition, command and control, and key logistics hubs deeper behind the front lines to get them out of range of the HIMARS and reduce their vulnerability.

[...]

Right now, Ukraine's HIMARS are consuming solid projectile rockets that are quite lethal. But Kyiv only has a limited number of them, and they're in high demand. For this reason, HIMARS rockets aren't used against individual Russian artillery pieces and are instead fired sporadically at higher-value targets, Rice said.

"What would happen if we gave them DPICM rockets would be that it would actually be used at a tactical level. So your HIMARS systems could now go after front-line battalions," he said.

Spoiler:

1. Change in strategy regarding counteroffensive occurred after secret meeting between Zaluzhny and NATO officers

2. WSJ article on Zaluzhny clashing with US general over how the war is being fought:

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Opinion piece of Prig's death and what it means:

https://thehill.com/opinion/internat...ead-whos-next/

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Yevgeny Prigozhin, the head of Wagner Group mercenaries who staged a coup against Russian President Vladimir Putin exactly two months ago, is dead, along with Dmitry Utkin, the actual Wagner military commander. Their plane fell from sky some 30 miles from Putin’s Valdai residence, protected by four S-300 divisions, the obvious inference being that the plane was shot down (although some in Western intelligence think a bomb may have exploded onboard). This is the same residence that Putin fled to during the coup.

Putin himself acknowledged that Prigozhin came back to Russia from Africa on the eve on his fatal flight and was “meeting with certain officials.” It is unclear whether he was to meet with Putin himself or just with Nikolai Patrushev, the secretary of the Security Council, but Prigozhin must have had some pretty high assurances or pressing problems to be lured onto this flight.

Another strange fact is that he travelled with Utkin on the same plane. As a precaution, the two men usually flew in separate aircrafts. In fact, Prigozhin used two different planes, often switching between them right on the tarmac. On Aug. 23, he also used two planes. The second one took off later and, upon hearing the news, flew in circles until finally landing. Nothing was heard from the passengers of this second plane, and for obvious reasons their fate is a topic of much speculation.

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Anyway, it is apparently quite unsafe to want to oust Putin and use business jets. The usual end of a Wagner opera: everybody dead.

Putin regained his status of alpha male, and there was no subtlety about it. It is the army that operates S-300 and it is only the FSB (the post-Soviet successor to the KGB) that could be sure which jet Prigozhin was taking. There’s only one man who can coordinate the army and the FSB like this.

Putin promised to pardon Prigozhin, and now we see his promise was not worth a dime. During the past two months, Prigozhin’s business empire was dismantled. His closest allies were bought off, the intricate web of clandestine cash and military contracts he had in Africa taken over. Utkin was offered an out, but stayed at Prigozhin’s side.

All Wagner operatives in Syria were given an option: join the Russian army at a much lower pay or be flown honorably to Russia. Very few resigned. They were flown, as promised, to Russia, to the military airfield at Mozdok. Vladimir Osechkin, a Russian dissident and specialist in all thing Wagner who writes for the anti-corruption site Gulagu.net, says the FSB met them at the airfield and whisked them away. And if there was any dirt Prigozhin had on Putin, then Prigozhin had to be neutralized.

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This well may cost him his war and his life, for there are two lessons from the warlord’s demise. One: Never believe in Putin’s promises. Two: If your tanks are 120 miles from the Kremlin, don’t stop.

Lukashenko warned Prig he was going to get killed:

https://edition.cnn.com/2023/08/26/e...hnk/index.html

Quote:

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko has said he warned Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin twice to watch out for threats to his life.

“The first time was when I phoned him and negotiations (were taking) place while they were marching on Moscow,” Lukashenko told reporters in comments carried by Belarusian state news agency Belta on Friday.

“I told him: ‘Yevgeny, do you understand that you will doom your people and will perish yourself?’ He had just come back from the front. On an impulse he said: ‘I will die then, damn it!”

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08-27-2023 , 09:14 AM

#34

Bluegrassplayer

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1. Excellent thread from a Ukrainian soldier who helped take Robotyne on all of the things they faced

2. Shelling of Russian position in that direction

3. Map of what the conflict there looks like after taking Robotyne

4. Russians claiming further Ukrainian breakthroughs in that area

5. As Ukraine reaches artillery range of Tokmak, Russia is sending Ukrainian citizens back to their homes there to be human shields:

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Mine clearing device used at the beginning of Ukrainian offensive:

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Russian unit along Dnieper posted a video complaining about leadership. Russian propagandists post a fake video to dispel the "rumor", Russians quickly realize it's BS:

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Ukraine using fake iron equipment to confuse lancet drones:

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UK MOD on Black Sea:

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08-27-2023 , 10:25 AM

#35

Bluegrassplayer

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1. More info on Russia committing reserves to stop advance after losing Robotyne

2. ISW on the breakthrough here

3. Clearing landmines with a gun near Robotyne

4. Russia claims huge buildup of armor pushing in this area

5. Better map than last post of the breakthrough:

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Ukraine claims S-400 in Crimea was taken out with a new missile:

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Ukraine propaganda dropped on Russia for Ukraine's independence day:

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08-27-2023 , 11:51 PM

#36

Phat Mack

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This is some crazy ****. This thread is my go-to news source for tactical updates.

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08-27-2023 , 11:59 PM

#37

Bluegrassplayer

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Glad to see you're using it Phat Mack. Let me know if you have any recommendations on how to improve it. Mike Haven suggested I add a key in the OP, which has been a great addition. I've been struggling with balancing the spoilers to not crash the page but also keeping things organized.

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08-28-2023 , 12:31 AM

#38

Bluegrassplayer

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Russian investigative journalist discusses how Wagner was being pushed out of Africa, despite assurances that Prig could continue with Wagner there, prompting Prig to fly back to Russia:

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Very in depth thread with lots of satellite images on how fighting is progressing after Robotyne:

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08-28-2023 , 10:24 AM

#39

Phat Mack

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Join Date: Sep 2002 Posts: 11,961

I LIKE THE SPOIL TAGS--I THINK THEY HELP WITH THE ORGANIZATION AND READING. I AGREE ABOUT THE KEY BEING GREAT ADDITION.

#HAPPYINTERNATIONALCAPLOCKSDAY

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08-28-2023 , 08:59 PM

#40

Bluegrassplayer

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1. ISW on USA officials recently talking about the slow pace of the counteroffensive and how these officials have unrealistic expectations, and don't understand the situation, especially regarding Bakhmut.

2. Pentagon officials supposedly urging Ukraine to use fewer drones and more human recon. This of course gets called stupid by every expert

3. The Pope's comments regarding Russia

4. Ukraine's response to critics:

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Germany's proposal to get around Swiss objections to Greece delivering tanks to Ukraine:

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1. Ukraine strikes Russia's prized electronic warfare shielding system

2. Different angle of the same thing:

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Russian lancet strikes Russian tank, Russian propaganda shows it and claims they hit a Ukrainian vehicle:

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Graphic Near Bakhmut, Ukrainian and Russian patrols almost walk into each other due to dense vegetation. Ukrainian drone tells Ukrainian patrol that there are enemies nearby and they start shooting:

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08-29-2023 , 08:54 AM

#41

Bluegrassplayer

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Ukrainian main battle tanks near Bakhmut:

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Boss of a German company detained for providing electronics for Russian drones:

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Russian howitzer hit, probably by drone then explodes:

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UK MOD on rising wages offered for Russian soldiers:

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08-29-2023 , 08:15 PM

#42

Bluegrassplayer

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1. German Lt Colonel claims not a single Ukrainian crew member in a Leopard 2 has died

2. Only 5 of the Leopard 2s have been damaged beyond repair:

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How further crossing red lines, such as drone strikes on Moscow, shows that more aid should be sent:

Quote:

Ukrainian drone strikes on Moscow, once unthinkable, have now become routine. The Russian capital region was targeted for six straight days recently, and while the drones haven’t caused much damage, they disrupted flight operations at airports and have helped to bring the war home. Also this month, other suspected Ukrainian drones destroyed a Russian bomber at an air base south of St. Petersburg and struck a railway station in the Kursk region of western Russia. The Kremlin’s response appeared to be limited to expressions of outrage.

It seems hard to remember now, but at the beginning of this conflict, the West — and the White House, in particular — was desperately worried that attacks inside Russia would cross a “red line” that would lead Russian President Vladimir Putin to dramatically up the ante, perhaps even to employ nuclear weapons. More recent experience suggests that, for all his bluster, Putin is rational enough not to escalate a limited war that he is already losing into a wider war with NATO that he cannot possibly win.

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Ukrainian MiG-29 taking out a recon drone (questionable source):

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ISW Map around Robtyne:

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08-30-2023 , 12:21 AM

#43

Bluegrassplayer

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1. More UAV attacks in Russian territory. 4 planes destroyed, airport shut down and reports of a military unit being hit

2. Upclose video of 2 burning

3. Satellite image of the military base earlier in the month:

Spoiler:

1. Russian occupation authorities fleeing Tokmak, which is 1/3 the way to Ukraine's goal of Melitopol

2. Map of area around Tokmak, Novoprokopivka, and Verbove

3. ISW map and Russian reports of repelling Ukraine attacks on Verbove

4. GRAPHIC drone strike near Novoprokopivka

5. Long thread on Ukraine potentially trying to breach the tank ditch and dragon's teeth in the area between Robotyne and Verbove (seems unlikely to me):

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Russia sinks its own ships in front of Kerch bridge as an improvised barrier:

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ISW on the 5 main forms of Russian misinformation coming out at the moment (a lot of which are echoed in western main stream media by "anonymous sources"):

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08-30-2023 , 05:24 AM

#44

Bluegrassplayer

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Long thread on why Russia's defensive lines are not necessarily the main threat, and why Ukraine refers to the tree lines and other areas that have been captured as the first defensive lines:

Spoiler:

1. Bryansk drone strike

2. Different drone strike (I think) in Bryansk

3. Pskov airport drone strike

4. Different Pskov angle

5. Ultranationalist propagandist angry about the concentrated drone strikes last night

6. Guardian article on the drone strikes in 6 Russian cities

Quote:

The attack was part of a wave of reported drone attacks in the early hours of Wednesday, with the Russian defence ministry reporting that drones were also shot down over the regions of Oryol, Bryansk, Ryazan, Kaluga and Moscow

Pskov appeared to be the only region where the drones caused damage, though media reported the sounds of explosions in some regions. Three drones were shot down in the Bryansk region, according to the Russian military, and two over the Oryol region, its governor Andrei Klychkov said. One was downed in the Ryazan region, one more over Kaluga, and one more in the Moscow region, officials said. No damage or casualties were registered in those regions.

7. Summary of the event:

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UK MOD on high rate of convictions for Russian soldiers refusing to fight:

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NYT article on the dangers of transporting grain from Ukraine due to mines and Russian ships, which is likely to cause ships to stop going there:

Quote:

In July, more than two million metric tons of Ukrainian agricultural products were shipped through these ports, up from a monthly average of 1.8 million during the first half of this year, said Alexis Ellender, a global analyst at Kpler, a commodities analytics firm.

At a meeting of European and American officials in the Romanian port of Galati this month, James C. O’Brien, the Biden administration’s sanctions coordinator, said the United States was committed to helping Ukraine expand the capacity of its Danube ports.

But in recent weeks, Russia’s relentless attacks on these ports — including one on Wednesday — have caused significant damage.

Beyond the threat of Russian drones, the port infrastructure on the Danube is aging, Mr. Ellender said. There is a shortage of pilots, critical for navigating ships through the river. There is significant risk of getting these massive vessels, more suited for larger ports, stuck or damaged in one of the narrow waterways, which would block traffic. A drought, like the one that hit Europe last summer, could cause rivers to become so low that ships have to reduce cargo volumes to allow passage.

And then, just beyond the Danube’s delta, there are also sea mines. Just as Captain Alan’s vessel was ready to leave the port of Reni, in Ukraine, and head to Turkey on a course that would hug Romania’s coast to reduce the chance of a run-in with a Russian warship, sea mines exploded in Romanian waters.

Spoiler:

Last edited by Bluegrassplayer; 08-30-2023 at 05:36 AM.

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08-31-2023 , 05:34 AM

#45

Bluegrassplayer

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1. Satellite imagery suggests lots of action near Verbove

2. More satellite images, can't link because it's spoilered

3. Another analysis of the images

4. Another take, claiming Ukraine breached the dragon's teeth

5. Drone guides a strike in what I think is that area

6. ISW analysis:

Spoiler:

1. US State Department on Ukrainian children being kidnapped and sent to Russia

2. ISW says regional governments are facilitating with the kidnappings:

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Politico article on N Korea assisting Russia:

Quote:

Also after Shoigu’s visit, another group of Russian officials traveled to Pyongyang for follow-up discussions about potential arms deals between the two nations, Kirby said. Under the potential agreements, North Korea would ship Russia “significant quantities and multiple types” of weapons for use in Ukraine, he said.

Spoiler:

1. Pskov airfield wasn't aware it was under attack until things began exploding (spoilered so just a link)

2. Ukraine's take on Pskov and what it means:

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08-31-2023 , 03:59 PM

#46

Mark_K

Fast Food Value KING

Join Date: May 2006 Posts: 28,215

I would vote this as one of the best threads on 2+2.

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08-31-2023 , 09:38 PM

#47

Bluegrassplayer

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2007 Posts: 38,806

Thanks Mark, I'm glad people are finding it useful.

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08-31-2023 , 11:04 PM

#48

Bluegrassplayer

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2007 Posts: 38,806

1. Ukraine MOD telling people to shut up in regards to giving advice on how to fight the war

2. Retired general on how he thinks the talks with NATO are likely very different from what is being reported by anonymous sources

Spoiler:

1. Head of popular Russian telegram channel detained

2. 3 well known military bloggers detained in Russia, one of which was Romanov (I'm unsure if the previous channel mentioned is included in these 3):

Spoiler:

1. Antiaircraft fire in Pskov again

2. Satellite imagery showing some of the damage done there

3. Looks like a drone strike during the day in Bryansk

4. More attacks on Crimea

5. 2 minute BBC video on the drone strikes:

Spoiler:

1. Zelenskyy meets with BAE Systems about making howitzers in Ukraine

2. Zelenskyy claims a domestically produced missile was used to hit a target 700km away:

Spoiler:

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09-01-2023 , 02:59 AM

#49

Bluegrassplayer

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2007 Posts: 38,806

CEPA article comparing Ukraine to the American Revolution:

https://cepa.org/article/ukraines-valley-forge-moment/

Quote:

In Philadelphia, on July 4, 1776, Americans declared their independence from Britain. Only 18 months later, General George Washington, leading a somewhat rag-tag Continental Army, was enduring a tough winter at Valley Forge, while British forces occupied Philadelphia and New York. Things looked bleak.

We know now that Washington was a brilliant general, that the American people had an iron-clad resolve to fight for freedom, and that with help from an outside power — France — the 13 colonies prevailed and truly established the United States of America. But in the winter of 1777-1778, no one could know this. It took an enormous effort of will, persistence, and moral clarity in the face of uncertainty. And a bit of outside help.

No doubt there were plenty of naysayers and armchair generals at the time who simply assumed the Americans would be defeated by overwhelming force and the superior resources of the British Empire. But Americans refused to give up. In the end, Britain’s resounding defeat resulted from long supply lines, American willpower, and foreign help.

Quote:

Ukrainians are no more inclined to give up than Americans were in 1777-1778. So where is the call for Ukraine to negotiate coming from? It comes from those focused on a desire to stabilize relations with Russia, no matter what. That denigrates both the Ukrainian people and the cause of freedom they are fighting for. Some Westerners may feel they have the luxury of signing away Ukrainian lands along with its people and freedom. Ukrainians do not.

Obscured in all this is the fact that — contrary to the naysayers’ narrative — Ukraine’s counteroffensive is indeed making progress. The Ukrainians have methodically weakened and exhausted Russian forces, inflicting as many as 300,000 casualties including 120,000 dead. They have made substantial hits on Russian logistical supply chains. They have brought the war home to Russians in Moscow, and have launched complex drone attacks on military airfields, naval forces, and shipping.

15 minute youtube video of mostly Ukrainian helmet footage. It's on youtube so nothing too violent:

Spoiler:

Politico article on Ukrainians training to use Abrams tanks:

https://www.politico.com/news/2023/0...tanks-00113668

Quote:

A group of Ukrainian soldiers have completed a training program on U.S. M1 Abrams tanks, a lethal new weapon officials hope can help Kyiv break through Russia’s entrenched defenses.

Around 200 Ukrainians have practiced on trainer tanks at U.S. Army training areas in Germany, said spokesperson Col. Martin O’Donnell. The soldiers recently completed one of the last phases of the program, a combined arms, battalion force-on-force exercise at Hohenfels Training Area.

Ukraine is slated to receive the first ten of 31 promised Abrams tanks in mid-September, according to a Defense Department official and another person familiar with the discussions, who like others interviewed for this story was granted anonymity to discuss sensitive plans. Western officials hope the arrival of the tanks will give Kyiv’s forces the edge they need to push through Russia’s fierce defenses in their grueling counteroffensive.

Ten of the 70-ton tanks are currently in Germany undergoing final refurbishments, said the DOD official. Once that is complete, they will be shipped to Ukraine.

1. 3 minute CNN clip on civilian drones

2. Cardboard drone test flight

3. Ukraine loses 40+ drones a day, planning to purchase 200k drones in a year

4. Popular mechanics article on cardboard drones

5. Graphic on the use of cardboard drones

6. UK MOD on the recent mass drone strikes in Russia

7. A 5 minute youtube video on the Magyar Birds, an attack drone company responsible for destroying over one billion dollars of Russian equipment

8. Evidence that Russia has moved anti aircraft defenses from near Japan:

Spoiler:

Report of an elite Russian unit deployed in Bakhmut to turn the tide there, instead loses 1/3 of his troops:

Spoiler:

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09-01-2023 , 08:57 AM

#50

Bluegrassplayer

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2007 Posts: 38,806

Two threads analyze the situation around Robotyne and Verbove:

Spoiler:

Southwest Moscow burning after drone strike:

Spoiler:

UK MOD on Kerch bridge defenses:

Spoiler:

The Drive article summarizing the drone strike on transport aircraft in Pskov:

Spoiler:

Long thread about the founder of the Russian neo-nazi group that was fighting in Ukraine until he got arrested:

Spoiler:

Newsweek article about China releasing a map which claims part of Russian territory and Russia's inability to respond:

https://www.newsweek.com/putin-power...ritory-1823513

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