BATTLE CLIPS

1. Trench battle near Kharkiv
2. Russian filming as vehicle is struck by drone
3. Captured barn tank
4. Drone hits tank with soldiers riding on top
5. Another
6. Ukrainian air force bombs Russians outside of Kharkiv where they are allegedly surrounded
7. Drone delivers drone
8. Interview from commander of Bradley that took out BTR in close combat







MAJOR BATTLEFRONTS

1. GOOD READ The time article "‘This is like Gallipoli’: inside Ukraine’s hardest battle yet"

https://www.thetimes.com/article/87d...cf10927d1d7968



RUSSIAN RECRUITMENT AND UKRAINE RECRUITMENT

1. Sri Lanka complaining about citizens being duped into joining Russian military
2. BBC article "Conscription squads send Ukrainian men into hiding"










RUSSIAN ECONOMY AND UKRAINE ECONOMY

1. Meduza article "Russia’s largest stock exchange has stopped trading in U.S. dollars and euros. What does this mean for the ruble?"
2. Bloomberg article "G-7 Agree How to Tap Frozen Russian Assets for $50B to Ukraine"
3. Inflation adjusted wages in Russia








MILITARY AID

1. USA self audit reveals DoD overcharged Ukraine 2 billion
2. WAPO article 'Biden, Zelensky to sign 10-year U.S.-Ukraine security deal at G-7 summit'

BATTLE CLIPS AND ANALYSIS

1. TOS or glide bomb strikes in Vovchansk
2. Ukrainian small diameter bomb strikes near Vovchansk
3. Russian UAV hits Ukrainian Baba Yaga
4. New Russian drone which is doing a lot of damage
5. GOOD READ Analysis of Ukraine using FPVs to destroy Russian fixed wing drones (video in the comments)
6. Trench warfare near Kharkiv
7. Drone dropping bombs from 200m
8. Glide bomb strike









PEACE

1. Putin's ultimatum for a ceasefire which includes giving up areas Russia does not control, no NATO, and lifting all sanctions
2. GREAT READ "STOLYPIN: West needs to talk seriously about Ukraine"







RECRUITMENT

1. GREAT READ rferl article "For Some In Russia's Far-Flung Provinces, Ukraine War Is A Ticket To Prosperity"
2. Somali mercenary discussing why he joined Russia








WAR CRIMES

1. ft article "FT investigation finds Ukrainian children on Russian adoption sites" (seems like a dead link now, here's the archive: https://archive.is/OAULL)
2. Russia hits residential building in Kharkiv, propagandists claim they were trying to strike a nearby hospital instead






MILITARY AID

1. Politico article "US says Ukraine can hit inside Russia ‘anywhere’ its forces attack across the border"

2. Yonhap article "S. Korea's level of arms supply to Ukraine hinges on Russia's actions: presidential office"
3. ft article "US to redirect Patriot air defence orders to Ukraine"





NORTH KOREA

1. Putin threatens South Korea






EU

1. Zelenskyy on EU membership

BATTLE CLIPS AND ANALYSIS

1. 3000kg glide kit bomb and Fighterbomber's thoughts on it as well as EW
2. 3000kg bomb
3. ATACMS launch




WAR CRIMES

1. BBC article "ICC issues arrest warrants for Russian officials"
2. Gas grenades dropped followed by FPVs





UKRAINE STRIKE CAMPAIGN

1. Ukraine strikes Russian space tracking center
2. Ukraine missile is intercepted in Crimea and kills Russian tourists.
3. Lower yellow circle is the Russian naval base. Upper yellow circle is an airfield. Red circle is where Russians are told they can vacation.
4. Reuters article "Russia promises retaliation against US for Ukraine strike on Crimea" (all over Russian propaganda they are saying this USA's fault)







RECRUITMENT

1. GREAT READ A look at what is offered to Russian recruits





EU

1. Ukraine and Moldova formally begin accession talks with EU







HYBRID WARFARE

1. WSJ article "Russian Saboteurs Behind Arson Attack at German Factory"

https://www.wsj.com/world/europe/rus...9ym2ysxskw1unb

A month ago you wrote that Russia's advantages are compounding, do you still feel that way?

Yes. They are able to gain ground incrementally due to Ukraine's diminishing manpower while Russia is able to keep up pressure.

AD is lacking while Russia's missile production is increasing and they are able to find more and more gaps.

The trend is moving in Russia's favor, they are producing more equipment and troops, but sometime next year that's likely to stop.

If Ukraine can reconfigure their training system that will help. If Ukraine's allies can produce more then the equipment advantage could change sooner too.






Is the training being provided for Ukraine insufficient, and is this causing fewer volunteers?

Ukraine's force regeneration strategy is different from NATO's. Ukrainians receive basic training quickly, this consists only of physical training, and recruits are then sent to their unit. NATO teaches tactical training during basic.

When NATO trainers say that training is inadequate it is usually with this framework in mind, where they expect soldiers to exit basic with tactical training.

The western training is very relevant. Some of the criticisms are political in nature: if a Ukrainian were to die during training in a western country due to live ammo exercises then it would be a mess. Ukrainian trainers see this and say it's not relevant which is not true. They do get this training in Ukraine but the rate of accidents is much higher.

Western trainers do not have engagement with the brigade commander that they need. This does result in some training where the brigade commander does not understand the drills his new recruits have done or the training doesn't prepare them to align with how the unit operates.

The West struggles to understand the scale of fighting with 500k troops. It takes a lot of time to send recruits to the west, train them, and send them back. It's also not feasible to have them train with their equipment since it's needed in Ukraine. Training in Ukraine helps with this.








Russia's rate of loss for both soldiers and equipment doesn't seem sustainable


A lot of casualty numbers aren't accurate. When they are accurate there's also often a lack of nuance: for example 85% of Wagner casualties had a few weeks of training. Casualties of trained soldiers were around 20-40 a week, this did not degrade Russia's armed forces. Russia's troop levels have expanded during the conflict. They invaded with 150k troops, with levies in DPR and LPR raising this to 200k or so. They are now at around 510k troops despite their losses. They are still surpassing their recruitment goals.

Where they've felt the losses more is with officers which prevents Russia from scaling or performing anything advanced.

Equipment losses are such that they can sustain what they're doing this year. Next year they will begin running into problems. Russia can still inflict a lot of damage until then.

Russia will never be in a position where they can't regenerate enough vehicles. Russia is currently manufacturing per year the amount of tanks that UK will purchase in the next decade. This is 15% of what they field, the rest is refurbished. When they run out of what they can refurbish this will go up. This is significantly less than what they're using now and will constrain them, but this kicks in late 2025, early 2026. If the conflict is frozen before then then it's not going to be a major issue.

This year they will produce 150-200 tanks and refurbish 1300 or so. They can also recover a lot of claimed losses which aren't catastrophic.

## What is the theory of victory for Ukraine?

Bring about a lasting peace.

Ukraine must have security guarantees, currently countries aren't saying what they're willing to do. This means Ukraine does not have a strong position to freeze the conflict and keep it frozen. Once Ukraine is confident in this then they can begin thinking about what they need as far as territory to remain viable economically.

After that they need to consider how to convince Russia to agree to peace. Russia thinks they can win, and is not interested in any concessions currently. Long term Russia is building up a lot of problems so they might reconsider. This will eventually become an issue of who has more leverage.

Since Ukraine doesn't have these important things, Russia is only interested in a ceasefire in an attempt to isolate Ukraine from its partners. Since Ukraine doesn't know what the west is willing to offer for several key things, it's difficult for Ukraine to formulate a theory of victory.

Once there's a publicly fixed plan, Russia can then manipulate that and also make that goal as costly as possible. This is what happened in Bakhmut.

(Kind of an aside) NATO is anticipating the need to deter Russia conventionally before the end of the decade. Sending aid to Ukraine doesn't really harm this as production is increasing due to Ukraine and this will eventually help NATO's depleted arms.

Russians are in a position where they see the downsides of war, but they also don't see a better solution so things will continue on.




Kharkiv

Russia massed 40k troops but didn't send them all. Since they still hold reserves they can use them elsewhere.

Depopulating Kharkiv would have been devastating, Russia did not succeed. They did succeed at pulling in Ukrainian reserves. Russia is continuing to make progress in the south.

Ukrainian counterattacks have been effective, and they've gotten permission to strike over the border.

It's hard to rate this as a win or loss at this moment.





Will mobilization improve the situation?

Three manpower problems:

1. battlefield replacements and bringing units back to strength
2. forming new units
3. regenerating offensive combat power

There's an immediate shortage. Replacements that help the first issue will be worse trained than the rest of their unit and will not have much offensive potential. The risk Ukraine runs now is that the immediate need to solve the first issue hurts Ukraine's ability to fix the second and third issue.





The rest of 2024

Aid package has bought time, but things are still bleak.

Production needs to increase, as well as solving supply chain issues.

Training and force generation need to improve.

We risk repeating the previous errors committed: talking a lot and waiting to long to actually implement.

Decisions need to be made this summer, as soon as possible

BATTLE CLIPS AND ANALYSIS

1. Shotgun shoots drone
2. Mig firing at Russian targets
3. TOS-1A firing at very close range
4. Video showing EW hitting drones
5. Strike on Russian armored assault using motorcycles
6. Why the motorcycles are useful
7. Drone vs drone





WAR CRIMES

1. GREAT WATCH Anders Puck Nilsen on Russian military's culture of violence and why it is important for them to commit war crimes
2. Aftermath of a bomb hitting a postal service
3. Russia attacks a city center
4. Missile strikes apartment building in Dnipro






RECRUITMENT

1. NYT article "Russia Sends Waves of Troops to the Front in a Brutal Style of Fighting" (first comment)

BATTLE CLIPS

1. Russia employing scooters
2. North Korean ammo misfires
3. Thermal drone
4. Drone dropping medical supplies near Kharkiv





MILITARY AID

1. NATO countries to donate 3 more patriots (1 arrived already I think)




FINANCIAL AID

1. Reuters article "NATO members agree €40 bln financial pledge for Ukraine - diplomat"

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe...at-2024-07-03/


RUSSIAN ECONOMY

1. Graph showing Russia's military spending
2. Time it takes Russia to spend 1 trillion rubles





UKRAINE STRIKE CAMPAIGN

1. Drone hits target 350km from front line
2. Radar station hit by HIMARS





RUSSIA STRIKE CAMPAIGN

1. Russian missile hits Ukrainian airfield
2. Ukraine energy company says Russia has destroyed 90% of their thermal power generation capacity
3. Kharkiv without power for 12 hours







RECRUITMENT

1. Russian blogger explains Russia's recruitment problems are as bad as Ukraine's
2. Polls show falling support for the war in Russia






MAJOR BATTLEFRONTS

1. Update near Kharkiv
2. GREAT READ Update on Kharkiv
3. Ukraine withdraws from canal in Chasiv Yar (important location they've lost before)

BATTLE CLIPS

1. Video of fighting in Chasiv Yar
2. Drone strikes on tanks, including barn tanks
3. Russian ATGMs
4. Russian tanks using roof screens and logs
5. Russian creating an improvised munition
6. FPVs strike Russian artillery and vehicles
7. HIMARS narrowly misses Ukrainian UAV and hits a radar
8. Russian tank hit by FPV but survives
9. Tank firing at close range
10. Bradley shoots down drone
11. Ukrainian ATGM (fired from the back of a pickup) hits tank
12. Amputee piloting drone
13. Russian on scooter with shotgun to shoot down drones
14. Demining










MILITARY AID

1. Foreign Minister of Poland suggesting Ukraine should be allowed to hit the airfields which launched the air strike on the children's hospital
2. Biden rejects the idea
3. Bloomberg article "Starmer Says Ukraine Can Use UK Missiles to Strike in Russia" (I believe USA rejected this as well)
4. Zelenskyy on securing air defense and potentially more F-16s







MAJOR BATTLEFRONTS

1. Likely another rotation issue leads to Russian gains in Donetsk
2. GREAT READ Kofman's overview of the current state of the war
3. Rob Lee on the impact of F-16s which are likely arriving soon






RECRUITMENT AND LOSSES

1. Economist article "How many Russian soldiers have been killed in Ukraine?"
2. Ukraine's 24th Mechanized is forming a convict brigade
3. Kyiv Independent article "Hundreds want to join new Ukrainian legion in Poland, Polish media reports"
4. ft article "Ukraine bolsters its army ranks with convicts"
5. Rob Lee on recruitment efforts of both sides






WAR CRIMES

1. NYT article on Ukraine executing POWs
2. Video of Russians executing POWs
3. Russian precision guided missile striking children's hospital
4. Mark Hamill fundraiser for the children's hospital
5. Twitter censors article on the missile strike







RUSSIA STRIKE CAMPAIGN

1. Video of Kyiv after several missiles strike
2. Zelenskyy on the casualties
3. BBC article "'We've learnt to do surgery without electricity': Ukraine's power cuts worsen"
4. Scene from Russia's strike against the Ukrainian children's hospital
5. Report from Kyiv
6. Report from Kyiv










UKRAINE STRIKE CAMPAIGN

1. Burning oil depot
2. Ukraine strikes oil depot in Krasnodar








RUSSIAN ECONOMY

1. Russian article on Russian inflation and overall economy (no idea if this is accurate)
2. NATO senior official claims Russia can sustain war economy for 3-4 years







ASSASSINATION ATTEMPTS

1. ft article "Russia believed to be behind plot to assassinate European defence boss"
2. Mark Galeotti on Russia's attempt to assassinate Rheinmetall CEO








PROPAGANDA

1. DOJ seizes two domains and inspects suspected Russian bots





NATO

1. The dangers of the current USA attitudes towards NATO






1. Russian state TV on the debates

BATTLE CLIPS

1. Night strike on an S300
2. GRAPHIC Insane attempt to get down a road
3. Russian cluster munitions
4. Another
5. Russian motorcycle batallion








MILITARY AID

1. Supplemental reduces Russia's artillery advantage from 7:1 to 3:1







MAJOR BATTLEFRONTS

1. 788 Ukrainian soldiers missing from Krynky (they recently pulled out)
2. Perpetua's take on the losses at Krynky
3. Group in Chasiv Yar surrounded for 70 days before being relieved; supplied by drones






PEACE TALKS

1. 44% of Ukrainians believe it's time for negotiations with Russia (highest yet)






RECRUITMENT

1. Meduza article "Over the year, payments to Russian military personnel and their relatives amounted to an amount equivalent to 1.5% of GDP"

BATTLE CLIPS AND ANALYSIS

1. Russian assault including a motorcycle charge at 2:35
2. Attempting to hit drone with shotgun from back of a truck
3. Aerial view of Bradley firing
4. Clip of the motorcycle charge only
5. Russian publication on trench warfare
6. Bradley drops off troops while providing cover
7. TOS explosion at night (I think)
8. Glide bombs strike
9. Smoke screens used on motorcycles







RECRUITMENT

1. Ukraine claims 3.5x more volunteers for recruitment
2. GOOD READ 4 million Ukrainians who should have signed up did not
3. Rand article "Russian Military Wartime Personnel Recruiting and Retention 2022–2023"







UKRAINE STRIKE CAMPAIGN

1. Drone strike on Russian airfield




MILITARY PRODUCTION

1. GOOD READ Economist article "Russia’s vast stocks of Soviet-era weaponry are running out" and thread from the author






MAJOR BATTLEFRONTS

1. GREAT READ RUSI "Preliminary Lessons from Ukraine’s Offensive Operations, 2022–23"
2. Excerpt on Bakhmut
2. "‘I HAVE SEEN HELL, AND THE NAME OF IT IS “KRYNKY” — FIGHTERS WHO HELD THE VILLAGE ON THE LEFT BANK AND DISAPPEARED THERE"
4. Russia achieving breakthrough in Donetsk





PEACE TALKS

1. Zelenskyy on current trajectory of the war and peace talks
2. Zelenskyy on Putin's current goals






1. Evan Gershkovich sentenced to 16 years





Politico article "Hungary facing fuel crisis as Ukraine turns up heat on Russian oil supplies"

https://www.politico.eu/article/hung...entral-europe/

GREAT READ Front Intelligence Insight article "Summer 2024 Frontline Dynamics: Overview, Key Issues, and Projections" Great overview of all key aspects of the war


https://frontelligence.substack.com/...amics-overview




BATTLE CLIPS

1. Drone rams another drone with a stick
2. GRAPHIC Drones attacking boats on a river
3. Bradley shrugs off drone hit
4. Drone training
5. HIMARS strike on Russian air defence
6. GRAPHIC Trench warfare
7. Remote operating a machine gun with a Steam Deck
8. SU-25 hit by MANPAD (I think)
9. GRAPHIC GREAT WATCH Infantry attacked by drone (really captures what it's like to know there's a drone in the area)











RECRUITMENT

1. Kyiv Independent article "Russia will be forced to scale down its attacks in a month and a half, Ukrainian commander says" (seems unlikely to me that it will occur this soon)




ORBAN

1. Hungary threatens to block EU aid to Ukraine over oil pipeline
2. Orban gets a billion dollar loan from Chinese banks instead of EU






PEACE TALKS

1. Reuters article "Poll says 32% of Ukrainians open to territorial concessions for quick peace"

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe...ce-2024-07-23/





MILITARY AID AND MILITARY PRODUCTION

1. GREAT READ "Years of miscalculations by U.S., NATO led to dire shell shortage in Ukraine"
2. Rhenmetall constructing 155mm factory in Ukraine
3. RFERL article "EU Shell-Production Capacity, Supplies To Ukraine Fall Far Short Of Promises"








STRIKE CAMPAIGNS

1. Russia relocating assets further from front lines

BATTLE CLIPS

1. Russian boat attempting resupply
2. Drone hits Russian boat at night
3. Drone attacking another river crossing
4. Drones attacking Russian assault
5. Bradley 25mm cannon, 47th armored
6. Drone hunts down soldiers in a building
7. Turtle tank hits mine





PEACE TALKS

1. Anders Puck Nielson "Ukraine and Russia are still far from real negotiations"





MILITARY AID

1. Telegraph article "F-16 fighter jets finally fly in Ukraine in major boost for Kyiv"

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-ne...iv-russia-war/




RECRUITMENT

1. NYT article "Ukraine Is Conscripting Thousands More Troops. But Are They Ready?" Large numbers of recruits will arrive at the front in the coming weeks, soldiers and military analysts said, but some are poorly trained or out of shape.
2. Russian soldier complaining about disparity in wages as Russia increases salaries once again in order to entice new recruits
3. Russian propagandist complaining that losses are too high to continue advancing in Donetsk
4. Putin signs decree to increase signing bonus





MAJOR BATTLEFRONT

1. GREAT READ The Times reporter embedded with 47th discussing the Russian breakthrough at Pokrovsk
2. GREAT WATCH Interview of several marines who were at Krynky
3. Interview with soldiers who defended Vochansk





WAR CRIMES

1. GRAPHIC Russians post video executing POWs





WAGNER

1. In depth look at the ambush in Mali where 50 Wagnerites were killed (a major millblogger, Grey Zone, is rumored to have been killed as well)









"The aviation component of Russia's nuclear triad is said to be at serious risk of failure due to possible corruption at Russia's United Engine Corporation. This has come to light after the crash of a Tu-160M strategic bomber on which Vladimir Putin flew in February 2024."






The Moscow Times article "Russia May Free 20-30 Political Prisoners in Historic Exchange With West"

BATTLE CLIPS

1. Ukrainian guided bombs level building
2. SU-24 dropping Storm Shadow
3. GRAPHIC Drone attacking boat on river
4. Urban combat in Toretsk
5. Bradley hit by ATGM, crew flees
6. GRAPHIC Aftermath of motorcycle attack
7. Artillery attempting to hit MRAAP evacuation
8. Drones vs motorcycles and ATVs
9. BMP and infantry attack trench near Chasiv Yar
10. Improvised munition dropped from vampire drone
11. Drone retrieves a drone
12. Russian assault







RECRUITMENT

1. DW article "Russia's war in Ukraine: Forcing deserters to the front line"

2. GOOD READ Look at the recent doubling of salary bonus for Russian recruits and the salaries overall






MILITARY AID

1. Official announcement that F-16s are in Ukraine
2. Zelenskyy addresses air force




MAJOR BATTLEFRONTS

1. Map showing Russia's recent gains on the major battlefronts
2. Analysis of land taken compared to counteroffensive






STRIKE CAMPAIGNS

1. Explosion after Ukraine hits Russian air base with drone
2. Satellite analysis of the strike





RUSSIAN ECONOMY

1. Moscow Times "Trillion Down the Pipe. Gazprom's Gas Business Losses Exceed 2.5 Billion Rubles a Day"

https://www.moscowtimes.ru/2024/07/3...i-vden-a138290




PRISONER EXCHANGE

1. Children of Russian spies were not aware they were Russian until flying in Russia
2. GOOD READ WSJ article "Inside the Secret Negotiations to Free Evan Gershkovich"
3. Galeotti on prisoners released calling for easing of sanctions
4. Galeotti on how Russian press is covering one of the Russians released







GOOD READ Mark Galeotti and BBC on Russians campaign against critics outside of Russia

KURSK

1. Early footage of Kursk invasion
2. Map of Kursk region with a few important events
3. Map showing where Ukraine has struck some important locations prior to the invasion
4. Kadyrov's TikTok army attempts at saving face as they retreat
5. Russian speculation on the EW used to when the invasion started
6. Russian propagandist likely killed in a drone strike during the invasion
7. Footage of Russian POWs
8. Pic of 40 POWs
9. Putin addresses the issue



KURSK ANALYSIS

1. Analysis from yesterday on what was happening around Sudzha
2. NYT article "Ukraine Launches Rare Cross-Border Ground Assault Into Russia" with early analysis
3. ISW analysis
4. OSINT analysis
5. My pick for best two analysis yesterday
6. My pick for best two analysis yesterday
7. Probably the best analysis today




MAJOR BATTLEFRONTS

1. General overview of the major battlefronts
2. Economist article "Russia’s bloody summer offensive is hurting Ukraine" discusses Ukraines manpower problems
3. Russian flag raised in Niu York





1. Russian military purge continues
2. More

KURSK

1. Missiles destroyed Russian column on the way to reinforce Kursk, also a video of the aftermath

2. Analysis of what was hit, as well as Russian telegram claiming the FSB arrested the person who filmed it.

3. Reliable source claims another column also destroyed

4. More POWs taken

5. Power outage due to large fire

6. Pic of blackout

7. Russian propaganda claims about the offensive

8. Russia has claimed victory against the offensive at least six times

9. Fighterbomber show pic of Russian losses and claims they are Ukrainian losses

10. Russian news showing incoming reinforcements

11. Russian forced to apologized for claiming Kadyrovites were hiding behind Russian soldiers

12. Pic of Ukrainian 30km from Kursk

13. Claimed results from striking air field that is used to attack the Kursk offensive

14. Video of the explosion

15. Ukraine requesting to be allowed to strike air bases launching attacks against Kursk offensive





KURSK ANALYSIS

1. GREAT READ on Kursk so far, and potential objectives. (Takes awhile to get through since it's in French, but the videos are good and it's worth it.)

2. Map of areas Ukraine allegedly controls

3. Mark Galeotti writing for The Spectator: "Will Ukraine’s Kursk offensive pay off?"

4. Two minute overview from BBC Russia

5. GREAT READ Forbes article: Ukraine’s Kursk Offensive Blitzed Russia With Electronic Warfare And Drones

6. WaPo article: Ukraine, powered by Western arms, stuns Russia in cross-border assault (I thought they had more than enough to reinforce the area.)

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world...-occupied-war/

7. The Economist article "Ukraine surprises with a high-stakes raid into Russia"

8. Russia declares a "Counter terrorism operation" in Kursk and what it means






BATTLE CLIPS

1. Drone strikes in Chasiv Yar

2. Russian begins dumping bodies out of a truck when he sees a drone

3. Several drone vs drone hits



UKRAINE STRIKE CAMPAIGN

1. HIMARS hit Russian training area in Zaporizhzhia

2. Footage of the airfield struck on August 3

3. FPV attacks train






RUSSIA STRIKE CAMPAIGN

1. Russia hits supermarket in Donetsk






MILITARY AID

1. The War Zone video on what F16s and what they are believed to be equipped with



2. Russians training on Iranian ballistic missile system









Russia blocks the messenging app Signal

KURSK

Russian reporter complaining about Ukrainians digging in in Kursk

Russian acknowledging that Sudzha is under Ukrainian control

Russian refugees claiming Ukrainians are in other villages

Russian helicopter flying very low over highway in Kursk

Kommersant on Russians angry over Kursk response

Ukrainian IFV driving around Sudzha




KURSK ANALYSIS

GREAT READ Analysis of the first week (I think there's evidence Ukraine is in complete control of Sudzha now)

Kommersant map showing FPV and artillery strikes.

Economist article on the attack, claiming 12 killed by a glide bomb

Tatarigami on reinforcements and what a battalion means now (a lot of elements of battalions have been seen in this fight, but the entire group is not there)

ft article "Russian reinforcements fail to push back Ukrainian incursion"





Zelenskyy on the Zaporzhizhia power plant being on fire

Zelenskyy on the Zaporzhizhia power plant being on fire (Ukraine claims Russia is burning something there, Russia claims it was shelled by Ukraine)

IAEA reports no impacts on the power plant



MAJOR BATTLEFRONTS

Russia continues making gains in Donetsk

Ukraine claiming Russia has moved units from Kharkiv to Kursk, but not units from Donetsk




RUSSIA STRIKE CAPAIGN

North Korean Ballistic missile hits residential buildings near Kyiv





MILIARY AID

Zelenskyy hoping to use foreign long range missiles inside of Russia





WAR CRIMES

Russians posting videos of dropping bombs on civilians in Kherson

BATTLE CLIPS

GREAT WATCH GRAPHIC 13 minute clip from Donetsk

Sea baby drone hits tower

Video of FPV strike from inside of Ukrainian AFV

Russian shoots down FPV


KURSK

Putin interrupts Kursk governor from talking about the scale of Ukraine's attack

ft article "How Ukraine pulled off its biggest gamble: invading Russia"





KURSK ANALYSIS

GREAT READ Mick Ryan, retired general on Ukraine's main options

GREAT READ In depth look at Russia's command and control response

New claims of where Ukraine controls





MILITARY AID

Germany says how its aid is used is up to Ukraine

Lindsey Graham suggesting retired F16s pilots should volunteer

Pro-Ukraine Republicans are plotting to avert a funding lapse in January






RECRUITMENT

Tatarigami on Russian recruitment

Mediazona on AWOL cases in Russia

Conservative estimate on Russian KIA











Someone given 4 years for meme about egg prices and soldiers in Russia

Russian bloggers lose YouTube monetization

BATTLE CLIPS

GRAPHIC Russian vehicle unloads troops right next to trench where they are killed immediately

Russian assault near Kharkiv repelled

Ukrainian airstrike in Kursk region




KURSK


GOOD READ Analysis of last few days of the Kursk offensive


Russian propaganda narratives on the offensive and how Russia is handling it



View that the Kremlin losing prestige over this is a Western narrative, and Putin is spinning this well.

ft article "Ukrainian forces seek to hold Russian positions after capturing hundreds of troops"

Lithuanian Defense Minister tells Ukrainian President that Russia is moving troops from Kaliningrad to Kursk

Ukrainian's view on the 8 Ukrainian BTRs lost yesterday

Visually confirmed losses in Kursk offensive so far

Rob Lee says due to the fact that Ukraine pulled troops from several of the battlefronts which must eagerly need troops, this is likely meant to be a major operation




RECRUITMENT

Bloomberg article "Russian Troop Shortage Is Exposed After Ukraine’s Incursion, Raising Risk of New Draft"






RUSSIAN ECONOMY

Bloomberg article "Russian Banks Scramble for Yuan as Liquidity Shortfall Doubles"





NORDSTREAM

Germany issues arrest warrant for Ukrainian over Nordstream




Russia bans reposting bloggers with less than 10k subs

BATTLE CLIPS

FPV strike on Grad MLRS

Grad strikes



KURSK

Captured miliary base

Zelenskyy on progress in Kursk

Zelenskyy and Syrski: 82 settlements taken, 35km deep

Map of Kursk

Meduza article "‘The special military operation just got extended’ Russian elites expected Ukraine’s incursion to end within days. Now they’re starting to panic."

Captured T90

Thread on use of conscripts in Kursk

Icarus Project video "Why Russian Soldiers Keep Surrendering to Ukraine"




Russian 810th Naval Infantry ambushes Ukrainian heavy equipment

Map of railways in Kursk and their importance

Map and geolocations showing Russia building fortifications deeper inside Russia

Ukraine reports its largest strike on airfields since the war began

102 Russians captured today

Ukrainians distributing aid to Russians in Sudzha



MILITARY AID

F16s to be equipped with cruise missiles

Politico article on sending sending the JASSMs and the politics surrounding it



NORDSTREAM

WSJ article "A Drunken Evening, a Rented Yacht: The Real Story of the Nord Stream Pipeline Sabotage"

https://www.wsj.com/world/europe/nor...24839c?mod=mhp







TU-22 crashes in Russia






Russian American sentenced to 12 years in Russian penal colony for $50 donation

Allegedly Russia is initiating a POW exchange for the first time since the war began

BATTLE CLIPS

First person footage of a Ukrainian defending a trench

Urban warfare in New York

Ukrainians ambush trucks in Kursk

Russia appears to have diverted several thousand troops from occupied Ukraine to counter Kursk offensive, US officials say

Ukrainian column that was ambushed yesterday

Video of bridge being destroyed

Video showing the KA-52 that was downed the first day of the Kursk offensive

Russian MOD claims this is an Iskander strike on Patriots

Bradley evacuation



KURSK

GREAT READ Political implications shown from this operation

Russian report on Ukrainian advances west of Sudzha

Kursk heavy equipment losses

ft article "Ukraine and Russia begin talks on exchange of prisoners captured in Kursk"

Meanwhile on Russian TV: "We need to prepare for the worst case scenario… that we have to sacrifice our border territories."

Advertisements to help build trenches in Kursk

Another video of Ukrainians giving aid to residents in Sudzha

ISW on Ukraine destroying two bridges in Kursk

Russia complaining about Italian journalists in Sudzha

The head of the prison, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to ensure the prison location would not be revealed, said 320 Russians have passed through the facility in the past 10 days on their way to other prison camps in Ukraine. The vast majority are young conscripts


WaPo article "Ukraine’s offensive derails secret efforts for partial cease-fire with Russia, officials say"

Free link






MAJOR BATTLE FRONTS

GREAT READ WSJ article "As Ukraine Invades Russia, Kyiv’s Troops Are in Trouble on the Eastern Front"

Free link

Kyiv Independent article "Pokrovsk residents urged to evacuate as Russian forces are nearly 10 km from city's outskirts"














RECRUITMENT

Economist article "Ukraine’s convicts take the fight inside Russia"

Free link






MILITARY AID

By the end of the year, Germany plans to supply Kiev with about 30 Leopard 1 tanks, 400 MRAP armored vehicles, 4 IRIS-T anti-aircraft systems, 10 Gepard self-propelled guns, 12 PzH 2000 self-propelled guns, 4 Zuzana 2 self-propelled guns, as well as RCH 155 self-propelled guns







NORDSTREAM

Donald Tusk: To all the initiators and patrons of Nord Stream 1 and 2. The only thing you should do today about it is apologise and keep quiet.






Internal politics between Syrski and a commander who refused order

BATTLE CLIPS

GRAPHIC Russian POV of attack attempting to cross Dnipro

Ukrainian helicopter being used as AD

Strike against another bridge in Kursk

Ukrainian Special Forces in Kursk

Iskander strike on decoy

Close up view of the decoy

Russian column attacked in Donetsk

JDAM and AASM strikes in Kursk




KURSK

WSJ summary of how Ukraine prepared to enter Russia, EW used, etc.

Ukrainians distributing aid

Russians shopping in Kursk grocery store

Map of where Russia is building defensive positions in Kursk

Anders Puck Nielsen on Kursk and potentially forcing a second Russian mobilization



Ukraine claims 2000 POWs taken

GREAT WATCH 5 minute video on start of Kursk operation



MAJOR BATTLEFRONTS

ft article "Military briefing: Kursk incursion heaps pressure on Ukraine’s east"

Overview of all fronts

GREAT READ Economist article "Russia’s double-punch back against Ukraine’s shock raid"


Free link

Romanov saying villages weren't evacuated and now that the bridge has been destroyed it will be more difficult

GREAT READ Watling for The Guardian "Ukraine’s extraordinary incursion into Kursk has changed the narrative of the war – but is a high-risk strategy"







UKRAINE STRIKE CAMPAIGN

Secondary explosion from oil tank (was his by two drones yesterday)






MILITARY AID

House Intelligence Committee Chairman @RepMikeTurner reiterates his request to President Biden to lift targeting restrictions imposed on Ukraine.





RECRUITMENT

Meduza article "Toy soldiers Fresh out of high school, Russian teens are joining the army and heading to the front lines in Ukraine. Many are dying on their first mission."





PROPAGANDA

Russian state TV selectively edited my report from Aleksin to remove any hint of criticism & then called ME a propagandist

BATTLE CLIPS

T80 "King BBQ" tank

Destruction of a BBQ tank

Close fight in Kursk







KURSK


Lots of Russian vehicles burning near one of the pontoon bridges

Sykski's map on what Ukraine holds

GREAT READ Mark Galeotti on Kursk:

GREAT READ Recap of last few days

GREAT READ Overview of Ukraine's goals, Russia's potential responses, and Ukraine's options to respond

GREAT READ Why the operation was kept secret from allies



MAJOR BATTLEFRONTS

Map showing Russia's gains over the previous month near Povkrosk

New York completely surrounded (Perpetua denies this)





MILITARY AID

Foreign Policy article "Biden’s Ukraine Strategy Is Missing in Action"

Free Link





WAR CRIMES

This week a unit that was at Bucha posted a video showing a severed head on a pike

BATTLE CLIPS

MI8 shooting down a drone

Another helicopter shooting drones

AASM strike in Kherson

Interview with a driver of a Stryker

JDAM strikes in Kharkiv

Ukraine's new missile



KURSK

Report on visible trenches and fortifications

Ukraine recovering a air defense system they damaged

Russian recruitment wave in Kursk

Ukraine claimed Russia was building up forces along the border so they could move troops there and not seem suspicious





MAJOR BATTLEFRONTS


The Economist article "The Kremlin is close to crushing Pokrovsk, a vital Ukrainian town"






RECRUITMENT

Screenshots and video from Ukrainian convict soldiers

AP article "Poorly trained recruits contribute to loss of Ukrainian territory on eastern front, commanders say"





MILITARY AID

Politico article "Ukraine uses Kursk success to press Biden on lifting weapons restrictions"





FROZEN FUNDS

Bloomberg article "Ukraine Jittery Over Funding Delays From Frozen Russian Assets"





TELEGRAM

Telegram CEO Pavel Durov arrested at French airport

Rob Let on its importance in relation to the war




WAR CRIMES

GREAT READ Article on how Russia targets civilians with drones in Kherson

Russia strikes police officer helping civilians then service vehicles sent to help

GREAT READ Byline Times article "Russian Drones are Hunting Civilians in Kherson: ‘They see you and They Target you’"









115 POWs returned to Ukraine

KURSK

Zelenskyy on purpose of Kursk and on the rate of advance at Pokrovsk (I think he's wrong on the latter)

GREAT READ Thread explaining Kursk's first day



MAJOR BATTLEFRONTS

Ukrainian talks about the self-inflicted issues Ukraine's military is facing in Pokrovsk

GREAT READ Tatarigami on the importance of Pokrovsk to Dontesk

Rate of Russian advance in Ukraine since Kursk started (mostly Pokrovsk)

Fortifications at Pokrovsk






MILITARY AID AND MILITARY PRODUCTION

WSJ article "U.S.-Made F-16 Crashed in Ukraine, Killing Pilot" (very likely friendly fire imo)

Zelenskyy claims first successful test of Ukrainian ballistic missile

Politico article "Ukraine to present Biden admin with targets it could hit in Russia, given the chance"







WAR CRIMES

Another video from a drone unit in Kherson which intentionally targets civilians










Deputy Defense minister under Shoigu arrested

BATTLE CLIPS

Russian AFV hit by Ukrainian tank while unloading troops

Ukrainian tank goes closer to destroy it

Ukrainian convoy hit by cluster munitions in Kursk

Aftermath of a destroyed Russian convoy in Kursk

Magyar video showing UAV strikes in Pokrovsk

"Brimstone" missile strikes

Bradley firing at close range







MAJOR BATTLEFRONTS

Map showing pontoon bridges in Kursk

One Ukrainian brigade captures 7 tanks in Kursk

GREAT READ Overview of Pokrovsk

ft article "Volodymyr Zelenskyy faces backlash over Russia’s breach of eastern defences"







STRIKE CAMPAIGNS

Ukraine launches 100+ drones into Russia

Video of Ukrainian drone being destroyed in flight

Russia claims to have destroyed 158 drones

Potentially a drone hitting a Moscow power plant

GOOD READ Tatarigami on the importance of attacking Russian energy

Russia fires Iskanders at Kharkiv

Iskander narrowly misses shopping center in Kharkiv

Various Russian strikes on civilians in Ukraine

Vuhledar hit by glide bombs






RUSSIAN ECONOMY

Reuters article "Exclusive: Russia payment hurdles with China partners intensified in August"

"Mykhailo Podolyak from the Office of the Ukrainian President announced that, starting January 1, 2025, the "Druzhba" oil pipeline from Russia through Ukraine will cease operations, cutting off oil supplies to Slovakia, Czechia, and Hungary."





WAR CRIMES

Russia strikes children's rehab center







GEORGIA

GREAT READ Overview at what is happening in Georgia

Two Colombians removed from plane in Venezuela and sent to Russia for participating in Ukraine

BATTLE CLIPS

Queen Hornet drone with automatic weapon

Drone dropping thermite

Drone dropping thermite

Drone dopping thermite

Underground hospital near front line




MAJOR BATTLEFRONTS

GREAT READ Foreign Affairs article "Ukraine’s Gamble - The Risks and Rewards of the Offensive Into Russia’s Kursk Region"

Zelenskyy on OPSEC for Kursk

Visually confirmed losses at Pokrovsk

September 1 has the most visually confirmed losses in a day





RUSSIAN STRIKE CAMPAIGN

GREAT READ Analysis of the Russian missile that struck a military academy killing around 50 and injuring around 200




RECRUITMENT

Russia's largest recruitment campaign

BBC article "Meeting the Ukrainian recruits preparing for new battle"







UKRAINE POLITICS

Major changes in Ukrainian minister positions

Minister of Strategic Industries on stepping down and his role in military production

ft article "Ukraine undertakes biggest government ‘reboot’ of war"





RUSSIAN ECONOMY

ft article "Russia built covert trade channel with India, leaks reveal"

Reuters article "Gazpromneft Moscow refinery suspended operations at Euro+ unit after Sept. 1 fire, sources say"



MILITARY AID

Bloomberg article "Ukraine Allies Expect Iran to Ship Missiles to Russia Imminently"






PROPAGANDA

GREAT READ (also hilarious) 'A new DoJ indictment alleges that RT employees "covertly fund[ed] and direct[ed]" a US company with $10m in order to push pro-Russia content.'

Sample clip from Tim Pool