STRIKES IN RUSSIA

1. Another refinery hit at night






STRIKES IN UKRAINE

1. GRAPHIC 14-20 killed in Odesa.
2. Pictures of the aftermath








RUSSIAN ELECTIONS

1. Explosion at a polling station
2. Woman dumps ink in ballot
3. Mark Galeotti's article "Putin’s sham election may mark worrying new stage in his rule"








RANDOM

1. For some reason there was a lot coming out this week on Russian war crimes. UN report saying Russian torture was systematic
2. Meduza article '“They may start to oppose” Russian authorities are afraid of children forcibly taken from Ukraine. They are trying to “re-educate” them and put them under strict digital control. Meduza investigation'
3. GRAPHIC 6 minutes of war crimes from earlier in the war
4. 1.6k bodies found near Kyiv a month after the invasion started
5. The Times article "Russia is building an ‘axis of the anti-West’"


6. VOA article '"The best medicine is artillery" — an interview with combat medic Maria Nazarova' on the desperate state of combat medics in Ukraine
7. Russian propaganda vs Nazi propagandists
8. The Times article "Russia ‘jams signals’ on RAF plane carrying Grant Shapps"
9. Macron talking to Putin 4 days before invasion
10. Macron talking to Zelenskyy after the invasion started
11. 2 year anniversary of the death of a Ukrainian journalist, some pics he took of the start of the war

MILITARY AID

The House of Representatives is getting more and more ridiculous. Johnson has had increased pressure from all sides, but still refuses to bring the vote to the floor. A discharge petition has begun to circulate, but it is an archaic process which is time consuming. Dems were clearly hoping that a Republican would begin the process as that raises the chances of its success drastically, but previously vocal supporters of Ukraine have all been afraid to do so. This week Republican Ken Buck resigned, it's clear that the options for Republicans currently are to be MAGA or to be silent. He mentioned something about the House really hurting when 3 more resign, but it's unclear if that means he thinks it will happen. Republicans have completely lost control of the party.

The discharge petition must be signed in person, and can only be brought forward on specific days of a month (I think first Monday of the month and 3rd week or something) so it's looking like at the earliest this will happen early April. As pressure against Johnson increases, the hope is that he instead puts the vote up himself, preferably in a manner that bypasses the amendment process and greatly streamlines the process. If it's not brought in this manner then it's expected that MAGA Republicans will add a bunch of amendments to slow it down. However it's brought to vote, it's believed it would pass with a huge majority despite 8-12 Dems who would not vote on it due to taking a hard line of no weapons to Israel.

I don't really know what to write about Macron. The Baltic states are all for sending troops to Ukraine, Macron seems sincere in his remarks about it. Overall it seems pretty ridiculous at the moment though.






BELGOROD AND KURSK INCURSION, DRONE STRIKES, AND THE RUSSIAN ELECTION

As the elections start in Russia, the Russian partisans fighting for Ukraine began invading Russian areas that border Ukraine. This is largely a PR stunt, and serves little to no strategic value, and is resulting in the loss of decent equipment and troops. Putin has complained that this is election interference. It's great that while elections occur "Russians are invading Russia to free Russia from Russians while Russia continues not invading Ukraine which is actually Russia cos the West is invading Russia from Ukraine which is Russia." to highlight the absurdity of affairs in Russia right now, but ultimately Ukraine could be using these resources and I doubt that spending them for memes is worth it.

Drones have been continuously striking oil refineries, driving up the oil price as Russia is forced to discontinue selling so it can have enough to function. Russia prides itself on its wealth fund which it is now liquidating to pay for the war and will continue to do so at a higher rate since it can't export its biggest money earner. Ramping up these attacks before the election is also likely calculated to highlight the absurdity of voting for Putin despite the many negative things he's caused for Russia recently.

The election itself has already seen some small protests: things like booths lit on fire and ink poured in a ballot box. A protest was planned where people would show up at noon on a certain day and all vote against Putin which was declared unlawful.






MAJOR BATTLE FRONTS

For the most part Russia seems to have slowed down their advances. They continue to attack Robotyne and this week at least once "captured" the town but then gave it up again. They also tried to go through Verbove, which is what Ukraine failed to do during their offensive, which they also failed to do.

Novomykhailivka keeps getting attacked and while that town itself is not important, it is one town closer to Kostyantynivka which is extremely important because it controls the highway that goes to Vuhledar.

Ultimately Russia slowing down and this offensive likely culminating doesn't mean as much as some people claim. One article this week was titled "How the Czech Republic has just stopped Putin cold and saved Ukraine" which is just ridiculous. The ammo definitely helped, but while attacks along the front line have slowed, the lines are weak and undermanned. As WOTR said, the manpower problem is Ukraine's greatest weakness at the moment. As WOTR also said, Russia's main problem was a lack of equipment and recently we've seen a lack of tanks being used for assaults. This means that Russia is probably just throwing cannon fodder forward to keep stressing the lines while saving up equipment like tanks for their summer (or sooner) offensive. Despite things seeming to slow down the situation is still extremely grim.





RUSSIA'S STRIKE CAPABILITY

There's been a lot about high cost targets being destroyed on the Ukraine side. Since the start of the war Russian milbloggers have complained about Russia's slow response time to high value targets. For example the Ukrainian award ceremony last year was struck after 90 minutes. Now things like the two helicopters which were destroyed, anti air defense systems, and other high value targets, which move on a regular basis, have shown that Russia's response down has been cut down drastically. The chain of command has shortened greatly allowing them to hit more targets. This is really bad for Ukraine.

It is believed that in the $300 million package sent by USA that more high tech and longer range capabilities have been sent to help take out Russia's strike capabilities. It's also likely that the major package will have more advanced weaponry to help in this area as well.





PEACE TALKS

Medvedev has been stepping up his genocidal rhetoric stating that Ukraine as a concept should disappear and that Ukraine is definitely Russia. Meanwhile Putin stated that now that Ukraine is running out of ammo Russia shouldn't ask for peace since they're winning. This should make it fairly obvious that he never wanted peace. Meanwhile some Ukrainians were rightfully upset that western media has for the most part not reported on these things, while they were largely placing the blame on Ukraine for not signing a peace deal earlier despite the crippling terms.




STRIKES IN UKRAINE

Russian bombing of Ukrainian cities continues pretty much every day. It's pretty much a daily thing so I rarely include them unless they are particularly bad like the 20 killed in Odesa today. Unfortunately as American air defense becomes increasingly rationed these numbers are likely to climb.

BATTLE CLIPS

1. MICLIC (Mine Clearing Line Charge)
2. GRAPHIC close fight in Krynky, ends with a meme







STRIKES IN RUSSIA

1. Another refinery on fire
2. Belgorod after being shelled
3. Another refinery on fire, vid of drones striking it in comments
4. Russian telegram posts on the strikes on refineries
5. Satellite image of a burning refinery, video of it burning in comments







ELECTIONS

1. Failed attempt at discreetly throwing a molotov cocktail without being noticed and then walking out
(There was a noon protest of Putin planned for today meaning at noon Russians would come to vote against Putin)
2. Noon at Moscow
3. Lithuanian Russian embassy
4. Berlin (Navalny's wife present)
5. Bangkok and a lot more countries in the comments
6. Armed soldier checks in on voters
7. Mark Galeoti article "How Putin will rig the Russian election"






MILITARY PRODUCTION

1. A look at Russian BTRs in storage showing that most of the modern ones have been taken out and Russia will likely be using older and older models soon.

BATTLE CLIPS

1. Ukraine repels IFV push with drones and cluster munitions
2. Chinese Desert Cross being used







NAVALNY

1. Putin on the deal before Navalny's death.
2. Putin says people die in prison in USA too
3. Putin's spokesman making fun of Navalny's wife for not returning to Russia for his funeral





ELECTION

1. Vote stats for the occupied areas of Ukraine
2. A look at this vote and when Russia was actually attempting democracy
3. Mark Galeotti article "Why Putin’s sham election will change Russia — again"



4. A look at polling results from abroad








STRIKES IN RUSSIA

Map of refineries hit








MILITARY AND AND MILITARY PRODUCTION

1. Analysis of how the West's current strategy for helping Ukraine does not make sense









1. Abandoned Transnistria helicopter hit by a drone
2. ISW on the event

Great listen as always:




Overview

Situation is not dire, but trending negatively. Ukraine is actively working to stabilize the front line and seems to be succeeding here.

Ukraine is dealing with 3 main problems: manpower, fortifications, and ammunition.

They are currently building the fortifications.

They are trying to solve the manpower issue, but this has the longest lead time to solve.

Ammunition is mostly dependent on western support: USA, EU, and Czech initiative.








Manpower

Law scheduled for second reading in a few weeks. This legislation has been extremely slow, especially considering how bad the situation is. This was initiated in November and is still ongoing in March.

3 pieces to the manpower issue:

1. Conducting an audit: Figuring out who they have, who is where, who is performing what tasks.
2. Recruitment process: extremely inefficient currently.
3. Initiating mobilization: changing the terms of service. 70% of infantry get wounded. The only way to get out is to be injured or killed currently. Ukraine needs to create fair terms of service for mobilized soldiers in order to make people more likely to join.

President sent this to parliament. It is a heavily politicized issue. Politics is slowing it down; 4000 proposed amendments. Zelenskyy has not been very vocal on this. Military is probably working on the first 2 issues already, but parliament needs to figure out something soon.

Manpower is the key issue this year. After it's passed, probably a 60 day notice and then training.

If the the ammo issue is solved, it be sent immediately. If the manpower issue is not solved soon then it will be too late for the summer offensive.







Drones

Drones are a useful offset to conventional capabilities like ATGM and artillery, but they are a crutch, not a solution. Far more effective on defense than offensive.

Contest between drones and EW counters are very narrow. A lot of debate on how effective drones will be in the future, even as soon as this summer.

Early employment of strike drones was largely a contest of quantity, but now it's evolving to quality since EW is becoming more effective at dealing with drones. Only a few drones can be on the same frequency, operating in the same space and time. Coordination is difficult, lots of them being used in tandem is difficult.








B]Russian advantages[/B]

Ukraine is managing the 5:1 advantage Russia enjoys in artillery fires.

The added use of glide bombs has been devastating though. Even though they aren't that accurate, they are using 80+ a day at key areas and the craters they form are huge.

Russia also has an advantage in equipment production, repairing and restoring vehicles from Soviet stocks.

Russia has dedicated engineering brigades for building fortifications which Ukraine does not have. Ukraine has these built into their brigades, but they are meant to build their forward trenches, not their second and third defensive lines.











Where does Russia go after Avdiivka

Russia is still making incremental gains, not breakthroughs. It's not clear where the line will stabilize.

They are inching towards Pokrovsk, a major intersection and transit hub. This puts Ukrainian rear areas within reach of Russian drones, which could be why there are more high value assets being destroyed: patriots, helicopters etc.

Russia is still trying to take the rest of Donbas and taking Pokrovsk is a major step. Taking Chasiv Yar is another goal in order to accomplish this since it is an important high ground.

Russian plan hasn't changed. More a question of what the state of Ukraine's forces are in the second half of this year than what Russia will do.









Fortifications and random thoughts

Actively building fortifications. Have a network planned. The line will look different from Russia's. Secondary and third lines are planned as well.

He was surprised to see how effectively Ukraine has managed to create cheap gun-based air defense to hit long range drones. Combined with a network of sensors and EW systems, this is extremely effective against Shaheds and cruise missiles. These could be very useful for smaller countries that don't have massive GDPs to spend on defense.

Threat of execution and executions are extremely prevalent with Russian forces. (Bakhmut did not destroy Wagner. It burst the organization and spread its tactics throughout the armed forces: more prevalent use of cannon fodder such as Storm Z and Shtorm Z, executions, overall Wagnerization of the Russian armed forces.)

Ukrainian intercepts show that money is also a huge motivator for assault groups: wives and girlfriends telling their partners to volunteer for an assault group for more money.

Going out of town for a few weeks so will be cutting back on how much I read and post significantly.




BATTLE CLIPS

"Videos of Russian soldiers watching Ukrainian FPVs strike Russian targets after intercepting their video feed in Kherson Oblast. They are alerting their colleagues what the FPVs are targeting. "







RUSSIAN ECONOMY AND SANCTIONS


Bloomberg article "China Set for Record Russian Oil Imports in March, Kpler Says"







ELECTION


1. Independent observer score vs official score
2. Newsweek article "Russian District Scrambles to Correct Putin's Surprise Election Defeat"

RECRUITMENT


1. Recruits asked to make promotional videos while training







MILITARY AID AND MILITARY PRODUCTION

1. GREAT READ Overview of military aid, production and current battlefield by Kofman
2. How delays in military aid and hurting Ukraine's efforts







RUSSIAN ECONOMY

1. Bloomberg "Gunvor Says Drones Shut 600,000 Barrels of Russian Refining"

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...ussia-refining

This thread has most of the videos of the Moscow terrorist attack in it. Very graphic obviously:


https://x.com/Natsecjeff/status/1771...017969566?s=20

UKRAINE'S ATTACKS AGAINST RUSSIAN OIL

1. ft article "US urged Ukraine to halt strikes on Russian oil refineries"
2. Ukraine response
3. "Ukraine denies US requested to halt strikes on Russian oil refineries"










RUSSIAN STRIKES AGAINST UKRAINE

1. Video of Russian missiles striking the Dnipro dam
2. Different angle of the dam strike
3. Russia launches huge strike, a look at what was fired and what go through (the day before all missiles were struck down, before that there had been a long pause on missile attacks)
4. Rocket strike in middle of residential area
5. People hiding in Kyiv subway






MOSCOW TERRORIST ATTACK

1. Short BBC clip on the attack
2. CBS article "ISIS claims responsibility for Russia attack that killed at least 40 killed and injured dozens in shooting at Moscow concert hall"
3. Putin dismissed warnings of a terrorist attack as Western blackmail









MILITARY AID

1. NBC article "Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene files motion to oust Mike Johnson as House speaker"
2. "Republican Rep. Mike Gallagher will resign early, leaving House majority hanging by a thread"



https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/con...ake-rcna134385

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/con...nks-rcna144672

UKRAINE'S ATTACKS AGAINST RUSSIAN OIL

1. Continued attacks
2. Reuters article "Damaged refining capacity drives up Russia's gasoline, diesel prices"
3. Russian monthly export revenues
4. GOOD READ overview of the situation
5. UK MOD on last week's strikes
6. Fires







UKRAINIAN STRIKES AGAINST RUSSIA

1. Missile strikes in Crimea
2. Claim of partisan attack as well








MOSCOW TERRORIST ATTACK

ISIS has released bodycam footage of the attack (I'm not including the video as it's extremely graphic)

BATTLE CLIPS

1. GRAPHIC Videos of Russia's Chinese Desert Cross getting hit. (They've jokingly referred to as golf carts)





MOSCOW TERRORIST ATTACK

1. Current Russian narratives on the attack
2. Mark Galeotti on the difficult position this puts Putin in
3. Lukashenko says the terrorists were fleeing to Belarus, directly contradicting Putin
4. Galeotti on the current narrative in Russia







RUSSIAN STRIKES AGAINST UKRAINE

A lot of this got overshadowed by the terrorist attack, but one of the largest missile strikes of the war occurred which completely crippled energy infrastructure. It's not really in the news, and not any tweets which really summarize it, but a lot of Kharkiv is without power and the dam will likely take years to repair.

1. Hypersonic missiles struck down on their way to Kyiv






UKRAINE'S ATTACKS AGAINST RUSSIAN OIL

1. A look at Russian gasoline

BATTLE CLIPS

1. Ground drone deploys mines near trenches which are detonated remotely
2. GRAPHIC Russian BMP struck by drone and then ambushed






MAJOR BATTLEFRONTS

Anders Puck Nielsen on Summer offensive (overly positive, but still good imo)









RECRUITMENT

1. France 24 video on Nepalese who joined Russian military
2. UK MOD on Russians with disabilities
3. NYT article "Pardoned for Serving in Ukraine, They Return to Russia to Kill Again" on the consequences of pardoning convicts







RUSSIAN STRIKES ON UKRAINE

The Economist article "The Kremlin wants to make Ukraine’s second city unliveable"


https://www.economist.com/europe/202...ity-unliveable






MOSCOW TERRORIST ATTACK

Russian media attempt to blame Ukraine

ORSK DAM COLLAPSE

A dam had two breaches, this has resulted in an oil refinery being shut down here, lots of people forced from homes and looting. Today there was mention of a third breach in another dam.

1. Videos of people left homeless from the dam collapse protesting
2. More videos
3. Flooded homes






MAJOR BATTLEFRONTS

1. GOOD READ Analysis of the importance of Chasiv Yar






MILITARY AID

1. Reuters article "US Republicans urge Ukraine aid vote, after 'Russian propaganda' warnings"
2. Axios article "Turner: Russian propaganda "being uttered on the House floor"


https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-...gs-2024-04-08/
https://www.axios.com/2024/04/07/rus...ty-mike-turner





RUSSIAN ECONOMY

1. Reuters article "Exclusive: Russia seeks gasoline from Kazakhstan in case of shortages, sources say"
2. ISW on Russia attempting to import gasoline from Belarus and Khazakstan







RUSSIAN STRIKES ON UKRAINE

1. Ft article "Russia changes tack on targeting Ukraine’s energy plants"







RECRUITMENT

1. Ukraine commander on the necessity for mobilization
2. UK MOD on Russian recruitment efforts

BATTLE CLIPS

1. FPV hits target which causes a huge secondary explosion
2. GRAPHIC Desert Cross hits a landmine
3. Russian drone hit by EW






RUSSIAN STRIKES AGAINST UKRAINE

1. Russia destroys Ukraine's largest thermal power plant
2. More videos










RUSSIAN ECONOMY


1. Graph showing gasoline production
2. Anders Puck Nielson on Russia's economy and the strikes against refineries









MILITARY AID

1. Discharge petition 25 signatures away






MAJOR BATTLEFRONTS

1. ft article "Ukraine’s top commander says eastern frontline has ‘significantly worsened’"
2. Rob Lee on the importance of Chasiv Yar









RECRUITMENT

1. Ukrainian Mobilization bill passed without demobilization part
2. UK MOD on Putin signing in laws exempting soldiers from payments

Over this last week I was hoping to catch up on stuff that I missed during my vacation but I'm not even close. Overall things are extremely grim, probably the worst they have been since the war started.


I was shocked to see that the Ukrainian mobilization bill passed without the demobilization bill attached to it. This essentially means anyone who is conscripted could be fighting until the war is over. At least something is passed though. With the current state of the war Ukrainians will be sent to the front lines without enough training, and the longer this is stalled the more that will be true for.



Russia has knocked out a lot of Ukraine's energy network and continues to attack despite enormous losses. I think they continue to throw bodies and equipment forward because they fear that it's only a matter of time until more ammunition arrives. The Czech initiative ammo is supposed to arrive in June, if the House can get into shape then they could potentially pass the aid bill soon. Last year it would have been a disaster if Israel was removed from the bill, and now there are people trying to decouple them again. I no longer know if that would be good or bad after Israel has lost a lot of its goodwill.

Russia's attacks are truly awful and show no regard for the lives of the people fighting for Russia. It is appalling to see. If Ukraine had enough ammo then I don't think these attacks would accomplish anything at all, however with things as they are, Russia is able to push forward albeit with devastating losses. It's clear they can't keep this up forever, but at the same time how long they can keep this up is unknown. Constantly in the news there is worry about the "Summer Offensive", but at this point I have no idea what that means. 2024 is clearly going to be one continual offensive, and Russia shows no plans of stopping. I feel like news regarding the "Summer Offensive" really detracts from the fact that there is an ongoing offensive now which has pretty much been going since last year. Russia does not care if they are losing far more troops due to the weather conditions, they are going to keep throwing bodies at their objectives. The only differentiation I can really think of is that this summer they will at least attempt conventional tactics instead of whatever it is they are doing now.

It's grim.

BATTLE CLIPS

1. Russian assault group using motorcycles to attack trenches





MILITARY AID

1. AP article "US intelligence finding shows China surging equipment sales to Russia to help war effort in Ukraine"
2. Ukraine Minister of Foreign affairs saying no aid means USA has no leverage on how Ukraine conducts the war











MAJOR BATTLEFRONTS

1. Storm Z telegram discussing Russia's huge losses, but managing to move forward despite
2. Daily losses from yesterday (It's like this a lot. Massive losses on both sides at the moment)
3. Syrsky claims Russia's goal is to capture Chasiv Yar by May 9
4. Russian telegram discussing the fighting at Robotyne
5. ft article "Ukraine’s top commander says eastern frontline has ‘significantly worsened’"

BATTLE CLIPS

1. Drone strikes camouflaged defense system
2. Trench view of an explosion from a Russian glide bomb
3. Explosions from an ATACMS strike on Russia airfield in Crimea
4. Ukrainians throw explosive charges into Russian positions then retreat in humvees
5. More glide bomb explosions










UKRAINE STRIKES ON RUSSIA

1. Explosions from an ATACMS strike on Russia airfield in Crimea
2. Assessment of what likely happened
3. Ukraine strike deep in Russia
4. Video of an oil refinery after it was hit













MILITARY AID

1. Analysis of drones, why their importance is exaggerated, and why Ukraine mostly needs artillery shells
2. Polls show Republicans still support aid to Ukraine despite far right attempts to prevent it
3. Contents of the foreign aid bill to be voted on on Saturday









MAJOR BATTLEFRONTS

1.GOOD READ Importance of Chasiv Yar

BATTLE CLIPS

1. Improvised armor on Russian tanks
2. Russian with counter thermal rain coat
3. Vide of Ukraine hitting a strategic bomber 300km behind frontline (these are capable of shooting nukes, but hav been equipped with cruise missiles)





MAJOR BATTLEFRONTS

1. Visually confirmed losses from yesterday
2. Glide bombs striking Chasiv Yar
3. Video of Russian armored losses at Novomykhailivka (village south of Avdiivka)
4. After losses near Chasiv Yar, the 67th mechanized brigade is to be reorganized. (This tweet does not really get into the heart of the matter. This was one of the private militaries which was made a part of Ukraine's defense force. Under Zaluzhnyi they were allowed a large amount of autonomy. Syrski is seeking to make all of forces more uniform, including this one. This group was resisting this effort and was sending mobilized soldiers under their command into the most dangerous areas while holding back their core soldiers. It's an incredibly bad look, although good that this type of thing is being handled.)







CRIMEA

1. Video of ATACMS taking out the four s-400 air defense in Crimea







MILITARY AID

1. GOOD READ AP article "House’s Ukraine, Israel aid package gains Biden’s support as Speaker Johnson fights to keep his job"
2. Results of the rules vote shows overwhelming support for the Ukraine bill in the house
3. Zelenskyy continuing to ask for air defense as casualties from Russian strikes grow











RUSSIAN PROPAGANDA

1. One of Russia's leading propagandists explaining how their propaganda works
2. Reuters article "Kremlin says any new 'colonial' U.S. aid to Ukraine won't change frontline situation"
3. Snyder addressing MTG's concerns over Ukrainian nazis










An American who went to fight for Russia in 2014 and was a favorite of their propaganda machine allegedly kidnapped and killed by Russian soldiers








HYBRID WARFARE

ft article "Germany arrests suspected Russian spies over bombing plot"

https://www.ft.com/content/9ee73d65-...a-3bc8b0bc08ae

MILITARY AID

Finally a breakthrough with the House of Reps. I personally think Johnson was forced into a position where he realized the danger of being removed as speaker was more if he didn't bills up, than if he didn't, but less cynical people think that recent briefings that Ukraine will collapse soon if aid isn't passed made him have a change of heart. Either way, things are finally moving forward. It's disgusting that this is 6 months late, but at least something is happening.

Ammo from the Czech initiative is supposed to arrive in June, which means that Ukraine can allow more ammunition to the frontlines now.




MAJOR BATTLEFRONTS

Robotyne has surprised me. I thought that Ukraine's position there was largely indefensible, but they have held on and inflicted a ton of losses. No idea how much they've suffered though.

I thought Ukraine would have to pull back from Krynky as well, but they have not.

Russia continues pushing after taking Avdiivka, and things have come to a head at Novomykhailivka in the south. I believe this is a key village for Russia to take Donetsk.

Attacks on Chasiv Yar are also happening.

The rate of attacks on the last two fronts are really crazy, especially for this time of year. The ground is not great for assaults, but Russia continues pushing despite crazy losses. I believe that have been doing this for a few reasons: fear that USA aid would be passed, realization that 2024 is the year where they will hold the largest advantage, and a belief that they can collapse Ukraine's frontline if they push hard enough, leading to capturing a major city. It's a huge gamble as their losses are not sustainable; even if they can recruit enough to replenish the troops lost, they are unable to continue refurbishing old Soviet equipment forever and eventually will have to rely on their production capabilities which are not much. Ukraine will lose both Chasiv Yar and Novomykhailivka imo, but how long they can hold onto them is going to be extremely important, especially Chasiv Yar.




STRIKES

Both countries are continuing their strike campaigns. Ukraine's strikes on Russia's oil production is hurting. Russia is looking at importing gasoline from their neighbors, dropping the quality of gasoline significantly, and also is unable to export and thus get a large portion of their income. Meanwhile this strike against Crimea allagedly took out 4 s-400s, which are extremely expensive and in demand air defense systems. Clearly Ukraine has plans to continue pressuring Crimea in the future. Ukraine's strikes against Russian production have also shown promising results, hitting a drone factory (with some controversy regarding it), and several heavy equipment factories. They were also helped by the flooding taking out a factory.

Russia is attacking Ukraine's energy infrastructure. Previously Russia was doing this during winter in an attempt to freeze Ukrainians into submission, which is largely regarded as a war crime. Since winter was resulting in fewer attacks on the front line, AD units were moved to cities to defend against these attacks. This year a combination of bad things happened to Ukraine: they ran out of air defense, Russia developed glide bombs capable of decent accuracy which were attacking throughout winter, and Russia also changed their attacks from pretty much purely civilian targets. After winter ended this year, Ukraine moved a lot of their AD to the front lines as they were needed, which combined with the fact that AD missiles were low already, meant that defenses for energy infrastructure were thin. Russia has continued to strike the infrastructure, using large amounts of missiles to saturate a single target. The thermal plant that was hit had over 10 missiles fired at it for example (I think 14).

War on the Rocks episode "CAN UKRAINE STABILIZE ITS LINES?" paywalled so summary in spoiler


https://warontherocks.com/episode/th...lmri8lfxnew6y6









BATTLE CLIPS

1. UGV attacking trench
2. Cluster bombs on glide kits







MILITARY AID


1. Aid ordered to be stationed in Poland ahead of time in preparation for the bill to pass
2. Politico article "Next Ukraine package to be larger than normal, include armored vehicles"
3. Long range atacms being sent to Ukraine (long debated)
4. UK sends largest ever aid package
5. Bloomberg article "UK Sends Ukraine Long-Range Missiles in Biggest Aid Package"
6. Russian concern over the part of the bill regarding confiscating Russian funds













RUSSIAN ECONOMY

1. WSJ article "U.S. Takes Aim at Chinese Banks Aiding Russia War Effort"

https://www.wsj.com/politics/nationa...ffort-fcf76dcc












RECRUITMENT

1. CNN article "How a store manager from India ended up killed on the battlefields of Ukraine fighting for Russia" on how a man from India was promised a job in Russia, duped into signing up for the military including signing documents in Russia he couldn't read, sent to the front line where he was killed
2. Kyiv Post article "Ukraine Suspends Consular Services for Men Living Abroad"



https://edition.cnn.com/2024/04/19/i...th-intl-hnk-ml
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/31564







MAJOR BATTLEFRONTS

1. Ukrainian unit allegedly abandoned their position causing a surge from Russia







Shoigu's second in command arrested for taking a bribe