The exchange highlighted a thorny dilemma facing Putin. While he has resisted a troop mobilization that could come at a political cost, Western estimates suggest Russia is now losing more men on the battlefield than it can recruit to replace them.
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“Forces are currently not sufficient to achieve the original war aims, knock Ukraine out of the war, to undermine its military potential or protect border regions of the Russian territory,” said the person briefed on the exchange with Putin. “More and more people are saying mobilization is inevitable.”
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But Russia has gained ground in eastern Ukraine by throwing successive waves of soldiers at Ukrainian lines. That is leading to a high number of fatalities, with U.K. Defense Minister John Healey telling Parliament this month that the U.K. estimated Russia was losing 1,100 soldiers a day.
In July, Putin tried to boost troop numbers by doubling a one-time payment for new recruits to 400,000 rubles, or roughly $4,300, a huge sum in many parts of Russia. Some 8% of the Russian budget is now dedicated to paying for military personnel, Western officials say.
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Russian leaders also fear that a mobilization could upset a delicate balance that they have tried to strike in the public’s perception of the war. Russian media and state propaganda has sought to portray the war as a heroic but distant conflict. They want Russians to feel they can continue to enjoy a normal life, along with rising incomes and greater redistribution of wealth as a result of the war.