Russian Invasion of Ukraine - House of Blogs -- Two Plus Two Poker Forums

Interesting read on the 50 Leopards recently purchased, and why 50 need to be bought in order to field 30. (WARNING TO THOSE TRIGGERED BY DOGS: THIS VILE MISCREANT HAS A DOG AS HIS AVATAR AND THEREFORE IS LIKELY A NAFO MEMBER. If all NAFO posts are this good, then it's really a solid organization):

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More Russians begging for proper support; Russians forced to clear a minefield because their commander already reported it as taken. Commander shoots soldiers if they don't attack when told to, 80% casualties for those who do attack:

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*****

Edit/MH:

Key:

ALCM: Air launched cruise missile
AFU: Armed Forces of Ukraine
ATACMS: Army Tactical Missile System
CEPA: Center for European Policy Analysis
HIMARS: High-Mobility Artillery Rocket System
ISW: Institute for the Study of War
KA-52: Kamov Ka-52 "Alligator" attack helicopter used by Russia
MOD: Ministry of Defense
Prig: Yevgeny Prigozhin, deceased leader of Wagner
PMC: Private military companies
SBU: Security Services of Ukraine (The law enforcement authority and main intelligence and security agency of the Ukrainian government)
UAV: Unmanned Aerial Vehicle, commonly referred to as drones.
WAPO: Washington Post

Bluegrassplayer

Last edited by Mike Haven; 10-06-2023 at 03:05 AM.

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08-13-2023 , 08:51 PM

caseIIclosed

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Thanks for still posting this stuff

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08-13-2023 , 09:19 PM

Bluegrassplayer

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NP, I'm glad people find it useful.

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08-13-2023 , 10:16 PM

Bluegrassplayer

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Russian messages on fall of Urozhaine

Second tweet includes violent footage:

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Vacationers in Crimea watching Kerch Bridge explosion:

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The pic posted by the guy who was apologizing on camera for posting the Kerch Bridge defensive positions in the last post:

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Second recent aircraft crash. Lots of speculation that it's due to Russia trying to manufacture parts they'd normally import, or their new pilots being untrained. Vatnik counterpoint: They've landed on the moon, everything is fine:

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Major Tomov who disappeared in a raid across the river is shown helping Ukrainians (There's a 14 minute interrogation of him which is pretty easy to find): ;Dnipro updates:

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Russia boarding civilian vessels; skirting sanctions to sell oil to India for higher price:

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08-14-2023 , 01:03 PM

Bluegrassplayer

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Nothing new, but good overview from NYT on the recent developments in the counteroffensive; tank battle in Urozhaine:

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https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/12/w...raine-war.html

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Military analysts caution that the Ukrainian forces still face a long, slow and bloody slog ahead against Russian troops positioned behind well-designed and fortified defenses. They cite a host of factors, like supplies of ammunition and other matériel as well as troop morale, that will determine how the fighting plays out over the coming months. But it is hard to analyze those elements, they say, given the disinformation and limited real information issued by both armies.

Even if Ukraine’s forces manage to break through Russia’s first line of defense, analysts note, Moscow has had many months to prepare the most formidable fortified defensive positions since World War II — a series of trenches, tank traps, vast minefields, machine-gun nests, attack helicopters and other air support. Ukraine has struggled, even with Western weapons, to overcome those obstacles, particularly the minefields.

Still, Britain’s military intelligence agency said on Saturday that Russia’s forces had faced “particularly intense attrition and heavy combat on the front line.”

At the same time, Russian forces are mounting their own offensive operations in northeastern Ukraine around the city of Kupiansk. By forcing Ukraine to defend there, military analysts say, Russia is most likely trying to draw Ukrainian forces from other areas where they are on the offensive.

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Ukraine is hoping that pressure along the front, along with deep strikes aimed at command posts, ammunition depots and supply lines, will ultimately overcome the Russian defenses. However, those defenses are intended to be elastic, military analysts say, enabling the Russian forces to absorb Ukrainian blows and counterattack when they can.

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In one of the two main lines of attack, the one aimed at the coastal port of Berdiansk, Ukraine has consolidated gains around the ruined village of Staromaiorske, which it recaptured in late July, and appears to be pushing toward the Russian stronghold of Urozhaine, according to the Ukrainian military and military analysts.

Ukraine has devoted thousands of soldiers, including some of its most experienced and battle-hardened marines, and armor to the campaign drive south down the Mokri Yaly River Valley.

If they can manage to push through or around Urozhaine, that will put them within 50 miles of the two major port cities of Berdiansk and Mariupol on the Sea of Azov. And with each mile they advance, the Ukrainian forces put more pressure on the Russian supply lines.

Graphic trailer for 60 Minutes episode on James Nachtwey who photographed Russian brutality; WAPO article on a soldier who was a POW under Wagner where he had both arms amputated, and his rehabilitation in USA:

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Kings and Generals overview of second part of counteroffensive through August:

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Romanov dooming over losing Urozhaine, and commenting on Russian propaganda channels:

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Kyiv's goals and why war is necessary:

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Gepard shooting down missile over Odessa:

https://twitter.com/Bodbe6/status/16...941222912?s=20

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08-15-2023 , 05:42 AM

Bluegrassplayer

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Overview of how Urozhaine was taken:

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Ukrainian town before and after shelling:

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NYT article on Russian convict cannon fodder; mobilized soldiers asking Putin for water and proper equipment:

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https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/14/w...s-ukraine.html

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In a month spent at the front line, Aleksandr, an ex-convict serving in the Russian Army, hadnÂ’t seen a single Ukrainian soldier and had barely fired a shot. The threat of death came from a distance, and seemingly from everywhere.

Sent to guard against a potential river crossing in southern Ukraine, his hastily formed unit, made up almost entirely of inmates, endured weeks of relentless bombardment, sniper attacks and ambushes. The marshy, flat terrain offered no cover beyond the burned-out hulks of cottages. He said he had watched dogs gnaw at the uncollected corpses of his dead comrades, drunk rain water and scavenged garbage dumps for food.

Aleksandr claims that out of the 120 men in his unit, only about 40 remain alive. These survivors are being heavily pressured by the Russian military to remain on the battlefield at the end of their six-month contracts, according to Aleksandr and accounts provided to The New York Times from two other Russian inmates fighting on the front line.

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They have described irregular wage payments that fell far short of the amounts promised to them by the state and an inability to collect compensation for injuries. Aleksandr also said that his officers had explicitly prevented men in his unit from collecting dead comrades from the battlefield.

He claimed that this was done to prevent their families from claiming compensation, because the dead soldiers would be registered as missing rather than as killed in action.

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Â“IÂ’m running around with an automatic gun like an idiot. I havenÂ’t made a single shot, I havenÂ’t seen a single enemy,Â” a former inmate from AleksandrÂ’s unit named Dmitri, who is now deceased, said in a voice message at the time. Â“We are just a bait to expose their artillery positions.Â” The message was shared with The Times by DmitriÂ’s wife.

Timelapse of damage to Kerch Bridge

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More explosions in Russia:

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ISW predicts Russia might not have any armor reserves, or else they'd send them to stop the marine raids across the Dnipro; UK MOD on Dnipro bridgehead:

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First Stryker seen in Ukraine:

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08-15-2023 , 07:44 AM

Bluegrassplayer

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rate hike to save Rouble; what it means for Russia:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...er-ruble-crash

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Policymakers lifted their benchmark to 12% from 8.5%, the second straight increase and the sharpest since the immediate aftermath of RussiaÂ’s invasion of Ukraine almost 18 months ago. The meeting was brought forward by a month after the ruble briefly broke through 100 to the dollar for the first time since March last year.

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Â“Hiking policy rates wonÂ’t solve anything,Â” said Timothy Ash, senior emerging-market sovereign strategist at RBC Bluebay Asset Management. Â“They might temporarily slow the pace of depreciation of the ruble at the price of slower real GDP growth Â— unless the core problem, the war and sanctions, are resolved.Â”

https://www.economist.com/finance-an...sinking-rouble

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Since the g7 group of large rich countries imposed a $60 price cap on Russian oil in December, the value of exports has slumped. RussiaÂ’s earnings were 15% lower in dollar terms from January to July than during the same period last year, a fact only partly explained by a lower global oil price. Imports have surged as the government prosecutes its war, and buys the goods to do so. In the first seven months of the year RussiaÂ’s current-account surplus, a measure of how much more foreign currency the country receives than spends, fell by 86%, to $25bn.

On the one hand, this suggests the oil-price cap is having an impact. Attempts to dodge the policyÂ—via wheezes involving the cost of shipping or transferring cargoes in Â“dark fleetsÂ”Â—are not making up for being forced to sell some oil at a discount. Yet on the other hand, it suggests Russia is finding ways to continue importing goods. German exports to RussiaÂ’s friendlier neighbours, for instance, have shot up suspiciously.

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Direct intervention in currency markets is another option. The central bank has already scaled back purchases of foreign currency. Under a budgetary rule, Russia used to buy other currencies in exchange for roubles if it had a surplus of oil and gas revenue, in order to build up reserves. On August 9th this rule was abandoned. According to official figures, the country had foreign-currency reserves of $587bn at the start of August, suggesting the central bank has the firepower to prop up the roubleÂ’s value should it wish. The problem is that some $300bn of these reserves are frozen by the West.

Interview with Ukrainian soldiers on embezzlement charges and draft dodging; Guardian article on how the draft dodging is done, what it means for the war effort ;

https://www.kyivpost.com/post/20519

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...d-conscription

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Odesa has emerged as a particular hotspot for draft evasion schemes, with a recruitment official arrested after he was found to have $5m in savings and a lavish property in Spain. But across Ukraine, there are reports of corrupt officials willing to take bribes from people eager to buy their way out of the draft. There are more than 100 other criminal proceedings against enlistment officials.

Â“The cynicism is the same everywhere,Â” Zelenskiy said on Friday. Â“Illicit enrichment, legalisation of illegally obtained funds, unlawful benefit, illegal transfer of persons liable for military service across the border.Â”

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In the first weeks after the invasion, hundreds of thousands of ordinary Ukrainians volunteered to serve at the front in an explosion of patriotism that helped keep the country independent and fight off the initial attack.

More than a year later, however, many of those initial recruits are now dead, wounded or simply exhausted, and the army needs new recruits to fill the ranks. By now, most of those who want to fight have already signed up, leaving the military to recruit among a much more reluctant pool of men.

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08-16-2023 , 10:15 AM

Bluegrassplayer

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Russia likely back to artillery advantage soon. This has been the single most important factor recently imo:

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History of Oryx and why the founder is putting it aside:

https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2023/0...-on-oryxs.html

Timelapse of Bakhmut; google street view to see a Ukrainian town before and after:

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Germany promising 5 billion Euro annually until 2027:

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In depth look at Russian fortifications using satellite images; satellite images of a potential defense point:

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Corruption developments:

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CNN video on drone that hit Kerch bridge and look at Ukrainian sea drones:

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08-16-2023 , 11:37 PM

Bluegrassplayer

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HIMARS strikes:

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Thermal cameras at night showing density of mine fields :

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UK MOD on Russia creating their own Shahed drones:

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08-17-2023 , 11:20 AM

#10

Bluegrassplayer

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Russian colonel talking about how cluster munitions are killing large amounts of Russians and also hurting supply lines. He says their cluster munitions are old and ineffective:

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"Ghost mobilization" immigrants are given a Russian passport, signed up for military service and shipped out:

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No traffic under Kerch Bridge for several days:

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Poland arrests 9 in Russian spy ring; late July Moldova kicks out 45 Russian "diplomats"; Russia turns to riskier forms of espionage:

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https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...fficial-agents

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An Argentinian couple living in Slovenia, a Mexican-Greek photographer who ran a yarn shop in Athens and now three Bulgarians arrested in Britain. Over the past year, police and security services across the globe have accused numerous people living apparently innocuous lives with being Russian intelligence agents or operatives.

Many others have been accused of passing information to Russia, including a security guard at the British embassy in Berlin, sentenced to 13 years in prison, and more than a dozen people arrested in Poland accused of carrying out various tasks for Russian intelligence.

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But elsewhere one thing is clear: since Vladimir Putin launched his full-scale invasion of Ukraine last February, Moscow has had to resort to riskier and less conventional methods of spying, mainly because so many of the spies it had placed under diplomatic cover in Europe have been expelled.

Traditionally, all three of RussiaÂ’s main security services Â– the domestic FSB, the SVR foreign intelligence service and the GRU military intelligence Â– have posted their operatives abroad under diplomatic cover. They have also used operatives posing as Russian businesspeople, tourists or journalists.

The war has made all of that much harder. The Center for Strategic and International Studies estimated that more than 450 diplomats were expelled from Russian embassies in the first three months of the war, most of them from Europe.

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All of this has meant Russia has turned to activating sleeper cells or passing on more active espionage work to unofficial agents and operatives. These may be third-country nationals, or they may be Â“illegalsÂ” Â– Russian operatives posing as third-country nationals, who spend years painstakingly building up their cover.

Illegals, a holdover from a Soviet-era programme, traditionally do little active espionage work, allowing them to blend into societies for longer-term missions.

However, in the past year, at least seven alleged illegals have been unmasked in the west Â– in Norway, Brazil, the Netherlands, Slovenia and Greece. Some managed to escape and are presumed to be back in Russia; others are still under arrest in the west.

First ship to leave Odessa since Russia declared it would fire on civilian ships; moving grain overland to other ports to then export:

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Ukrainian who helped Russians complaining he is receiving no help after Russian withdrawal and he begins receiving death threats:

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08-18-2023 , 03:47 AM

#11

Bluegrassplayer

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"U.S. intelligence says Ukraine will fail to meet offensiveÂ’s key goal" Clickbait title, but a few important things in it, especially regarding less support:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/natio...sive-melitopol

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The U.S. intelligence community assesses that UkraineÂ’s counteroffensive will fail to reach the key southeastern city of Melitopol, people familiar with the classified forecast told The Washington Post, a finding that, should it prove correct, would mean Kyiv wonÂ’t fulfill its principal objective of severing RussiaÂ’s land bridge to Crimea in this yearÂ’s push.

The grim assessment is based on RussiaÂ’s brutal proficiency in defending occupied territory through a phalanx of minefields and trenches, and is likely to prompt finger pointing inside Kyiv and Western capitals about why a counteroffensive that saw tens of billions of dollars of Western weapons and military equipment fell short of its goals.

UkraineÂ’s forces, which are pushing toward Melitopol from the town of Robotyne more than 50 miles away, will remain several miles outside of the city, U.S. officials said. U.S., Western and Ukrainian government officials interviewed for this report spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive military operations.

The Office of the Director of National Intelligence declined to comment.

Melitopol is critical to UkraineÂ’s counteroffensive because it is considered the gateway to Crimea. The city is at the intersection of two important highways and a railroad line that allow Russia to move military personnel and equipment from the peninsula to other occupied territories in southern Ukraine.

Ukraine launched the counteroffensive in early June hoping to replicate its stunning success in last fallÂ’s push through the Kharkiv region.

But in the first week of fighting, Ukraine incurred major casualties against RussiaÂ’s well-prepared defenses despite having a range of newly acquired Western equipment, including U.S. Bradley Fighting Vehicles, German-made Leopard 2 tanks and specialized mine-clearing vehicles.

Joint war games conducted by the U.S., British and Ukrainian militaries anticipated such losses but envisioned Kyiv accepting the casualties as the cost of piercing through RussiaÂ’s main defensive line, said U.S. and Western officials.

But Ukraine chose to stem the losses on the battlefield and switch to a tactic of relying on smaller units to push forward across different areas of the front. That resulted in Ukraine making incremental gains in different pockets over the summer.

Kyiv has recently dedicated more reserves to the front, including Stryker and Challenger units, but has yet to break through RussiaÂ’s main defensive line.

The path to Melitopol is an extremely challenging one, and even recapturing closer cities such as Tokmak will be difficult, said Rob Lee, a military analyst with the Foreign Policy Research Institute.

Â“Russia has three main defensive lines there and then fortified cities after that,Â” he said. Â“ItÂ’s not just a question about whether Ukraine can breach one or two of them, but can they breach all three and have enough forces available after taking attrition to achieve something more significant like taking Tokmak or something beyond that.Â”

The bleak outlook, briefed to some Republicans and Democrats on Capitol Hill, has already prompted a blame game inside closed-door meetings. Some Republicans are now balking at President BidenÂ’s request for an additional $20.6 billion in Ukraine aid given the offensiveÂ’s modest results. Other Republicans and, to a lesser extent, hawkish Democrats have faulted the administration for not sending more powerful weapons to Ukraine sooner.

U.S. officials reject criticisms that F-16 fighter jets or longer-range missile systems such as ATACMS would have resulted in a different outcome. Â“The problem remains piercing RussiaÂ’s main defensive line, and thereÂ’s no evidence these systems wouldÂ’ve been a panacea,Â” a senior administration official said.

In an interview this week, Gen. Mark A. Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said the United States has been clear about the difficult task facing Ukraine.

Â“I had said a couple of months ago that this offensive was going to be long, itÂ’s going to be bloody itÂ’s going to be slow,Â” he told The Post. Â“And thatÂ’s exactly what it is: long, bloody and slow, and itÂ’s a very, very difficult fight.Â”

While not achieving its objectives, he noted KyivÂ’s success in degrading Russian forces. Â“The Russians are in pretty rough shape,Â” he said. Â“TheyÂ’ve suffered a huge amount of casualties. Their morale is not great.Â”

U.S. officials said the Pentagon recommended multiple times that Ukraine concentrate a large mass of forces on a single breakthrough point. Though Ukraine opted for a different strategy, officials said it was KyivÂ’s call to make given the profound sacrifice Ukrainian troops were making on the battlefield.

Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba on Thursday acknowledged the slow pace of UkraineÂ’s counteroffensive but said Kyiv would not stop fighting until all its land is retaken. Â“We donÂ’t care how long it takes,Â” he told the news agency Agence France-Presse.

He encouraged critics of the offensive to Â“go and join the foreign legionÂ” if they wanted faster results. Â“ItÂ’s easy to say that you want everything to be faster when you are not there,Â” he said.

Ukrainian officials have said privately that timing depends on how quickly forces can penetrate the minefields Â— a difficult process that has strained the militaryÂ’s mine-clearing resources across a wide swath of territory.

Analysts say the challenges Ukraine has faced are multifaceted, but nearly all agree that Russia surpassed expectations when it comes to its proficiency in defending occupied territory.

Â“The most deterministic factor of how this offensive has gone thus far is the quality of Russian defenses,Â” said Lee, noting RussiaÂ’s use of trenches, mines and aviation. Â“They had a lot of time and they prepared them very well Â… and made it very difficult for Ukraine to advance.Â”

Questions have also been raised about how Ukraine committed its forces and in which areas.

The Ukrainians have for months poured tremendous resources into Bakhmut, including soldiers, ammunition and time, but they have lost control of the city and have made only modest gains in capturing territory around it. And while the close-in, trench-line fighting is different in Bakhmut from the problem of mines in the south, the focus has left some in the Biden administration concerned that overcommitting in the east may have eroded the potency of the counteroffensive in the south.

The new intelligence assessment aligns with a secret U.S. forecast from February indicating that shortfalls in equipment and force strength may mean that the counteroffensive will fall Â“well shortÂ” of UkraineÂ’s goal to sever the land bridge to Crimea by August. The assessment, detailed in a classified document leaked onto the social media app Discord, identified Melitopol or Mariupol as the objectives Â“to deny Russian overland access to Crimea.Â”

U.S. officials said Washington was still open to Kyiv surprising skeptics and overcoming the odds. One defense official said it is possible that Ukraine could buck historical norms and continue the counteroffensive through the winter, when everything including keeping soldiers warm and stocked with food and ammunition becomes much more difficult.

But that would rely on several important factors, such as the amount of rest troops need after a hard fighting season. It would also depend on how much specialized equipment and cold-weather clothing they have on hand, the defense official said. But Moscow may also outperform during winter military operations.

Â“Russians are known to be capable of fighting in cold weather,Â” the official said.

"UkraineÂ’s Slog Prompts Focus on Next YearÂ’s Fight"

https://www.wsj.com/articles/ukraine...fight-d638cdf7

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A nagging concern in Kyiv and Western capitals is that politicians and voters may come to see the war as a quagmire and sour on supporting Ukraine. Even if KyivÂ’s Western backers stay resolute, clocks are ticking as Ukrainian forces burn through munitions, manpower and stamina for a grueling fight.

All military campaigns end at some pointÂ—even in wars that grind on for yearsÂ—at what tacticians call a culmination, or the point when advancing forces can go no further due to success, impediments or lack of supplies.

KyivÂ’s goal now is for its current offensive to culminate with sufficient gains to show Ukrainian citizens and backers in Washington, Berlin and elsewhere that their support hasnÂ’t been misplacedÂ—and should continue.

President Biden at the North Atlantic Treaty Organization summit in Lithuania last month told the Ukrainian president and a cheering crowd that U.S. support will remain steadfast. The U.S., NATO allies and Japan pledged to develop long-term security plans for Ukraine. The Pentagon continues to supply Ukraine with advanced weaponryÂ—most recently deadly cluster munitionsÂ—and allies are increasing the lethality of what they supply, with weapons such as air-launched cruise missiles.

Similar caution is now more widespread in the White House, said Ivo Daalder, who was former President Barack ObamaÂ’s ambassador to NATO. Â“I do think thereÂ’s a realization in the administration that UkraineÂ’s not going to be regaining all its territory any time soon,Â” Daalder said.

U.S. and other Western officials have hoped that a significant Ukrainian breakthrough could bruise Russian forces enough to bring President Vladimir Putin to a negotiating table as soon as this winter for serious talks about some kind of settlement. Chances of that happening now appear slim, diplomats say.

[...]

Â“This war could look like the Korean War, with rapid movement on the front line in the early months and then relative stasisÂ—but it takes years for both sides to realize that,Â” said Dmitry Gorenburg, a Russia expert at the Center for Naval Analyses, a think tank linked to the Pentagon.

[...]

How politicians will view the war next year remains a widespread concern, especially because of the U.S. presidential election next November. Former President Donald Trump, the Republican front-runner, has suggested he would curtail support to Ukraine.

But many other Republicans continue to endorse U.S. help for Kyiv, including a large number of senators and many in the House, although some support tighter scrutiny of U.S. aid. In votes last month on defense appropriations, five amendments proposed by House Republicans close to Trump that would have cut aid to Ukraine were defeated by wide margins after more than 130 Republicans voted alongside all Democrats in rejecting them.

Robotyne tank engagement; Forbes article on the 82nd Brigade which is likely in this engagement; 2 KA-52s shot down in the same area; WarGonzo claims first line of defense there is breached:

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Random footage. Humvee attacking until going over a mine; Ukrainian tank charging until attacked by artillery then fleeing; assault in Bakhmut:

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08-18-2023 , 09:03 PM

#12

Bluegrassplayer

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Fire and drone strike in Russia:

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Bradley deploys smoke screens at night:

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ISW response to WAPO's anonymous sources saying Ukraine will not succeed in taking Melitpol, and why that's even necessary:

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Anders Puck Nielson on F-16s, their limited use in this conflict, and how remaking Ukraine's air force is a long term goal:

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08-18-2023 , 10:31 PM

#13

Bluegrassplayer

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NYT article on Ukraine having to turn to arms dealers for help at the start of the war. Goes into how arms prices get inflated, corruption in pre-war Ukraine, Zelenskyy's efforts to fight corruption after being elected, and then having to turn to those corrupt people once the war started:

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/12/w...pashinsky.html

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Mr. Pashinsky and the arms network he built highlight a little-discussed aspect of Ukraine’s war strategy. In the name of rushing weapons to the front line, leaders have resurrected figures from Ukraine’s rough-and-tumble past and undone, at least temporarily, years of anticorruption policies. Government officials stopped blacklisting suppliers who had ripped off the military, and they abandoned many public-disclosure rules intended to reveal self-dealing.

Mr. Zelensky’s administration did all of this while promising to continue fighting corruption. That has led to awkward contradictions — like the administration turning for help to someone it had labeled a criminal, gratefully buying weapons and simultaneously investigating him.

In the immediate term, the gamble is paying off. Ukraine held off Russian troops long enough for international aid to arrive. And Ukrainian Armored Technology has tens of millions of dollars in ongoing contracts to support the war effort. The long-term risk is that these temporary changes become entrenched, and that Mr. Pashinsky and others who had been sidelined will emerge from the war with more money and influence than ever.

Ukrainian leaders understand this risk. “We are not very idealistic in this regard,” the deputy defense minister, Volodymyr Havrylov, said in an interview. When the war broke out, he said, “we wanted huge amounts, immediately.”

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The goal was to tap as many sources, and remove as many barriers, as possible. The result was a frenzy. “We had cases where two state-owned companies were competing for the same stock,” Mr. Havrylov, the deputy defense minister, recalled.

Thousands of brokers answered the call, Mr. Havrylov said. But few had Mr. Pashinsky’s connections. Only 10 to 15 percent could find the ammunition they promised. Only about half of those delivered, he said.

The most successful brokers, officials found, were steeped in the old ways of doing business. Mr. Pashinsky provided crucial supplies earlier than Ukraine’s allies, Mr. Havrylov said.

And he is adamant that people who delivered in that dire period should not be questioned in retrospect.

“Let’s not touch people for what they’ve done in February, March of 2022,” Mr. Havrylov said. “Even if it looks suspicious.”

Related to the last few articles on Russia's increasingly desperate spy network. A plot to sabotage arms deliveries from Poland using methods similar to terrorist cells:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world...ge-gru-poland/

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The plot in Poland marked an attempt to reverse this slide. Unable or unwilling to rely on its own operatives, Russia assembled a team of amateurs, including by using Russian-language postings on Telegram channels in Poland that are frequented by Ukrainian refugees, according to Polish officials, whose account was confirmed by their U.S. intelligence counterparts.

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Given these constraints, U.S. spy agencies warned in February that Russia was likely to seek ways to “sabotage logistic [sites] on NATO territory with plausible deniability,” meaning in ways that would be difficult to attribute to Russia, according to the document, among those included in a trove of classified intelligence reports obtained by The Post.

Outsourcing operations to Ukrainian and Belarusian nationals was one way to accomplish that.

The postings used to lure potential recruits were scattered among job offers, housing tips and internet scams that litter the Telegram channels frequented by refugee groups in Poland, officials said.

They promised pay ranging from a few dollars for painting a graffiti-like message to $12 for hanging a poster, said the ABW investigator. There were fliers and banners that said, “POLAND ≠ UKRAINE,” “NATO GO HOME” and “DO NOT BE BIDEN,” according to information provided by the ABW.

[...]

Those who submitted photos showing they had done what was asked were given more dangerous assignments. Some were instructed to buy burner cellphones and cameras that would be passed via dead drops to other recruits who began crisscrossing Poland to file reports and photos from rail yards, airfields and seaports.

Recruits were paid in cryptocurrencies and wire transfers from untraceable bank accounts, officials said. In a measure of organizational zeal, the hidden sponsors of this work published their piecemeal pay rates on spreadsheets. At the top of the scale were the derailment, arson and assassination assignments, though even these were listed at only several hundred dollars, according to ABW officials.

Russia seemed to target recruits whose ages and backgrounds were less likely to draw the attention of security services, officials said. Most were in their 20s and one was just 16. By February, an organizational shape began to emerge.

“The operation was based on a classic cell structure,” according to information provided by the ABW, with cells focused on functions including surveillance, acquisitions, logistics and operations.
“Every cell had a leader, a trusted person of Russian intelligence services,” according to the ABW. Those at lower levels were kept in the dark and “did not know each other unless it was necessary.”
As the assignments escalated, even junior members of the network began to realize they were probably doing Moscow’s bidding, officials said. Some rationalized their involvement as relatively harmless or financially necessary, according to officials. Once on Russia’s payroll, they may also have feared that it was too late to back out.

Russia switching "before" and "after" pics for their propaganda; using photos from a 2014 anti-Kremlin AGAINST the invasion of Ukraine as a symbol of unity between Ukraine and Russia:

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08-19-2023 , 11:47 PM

#14

Bluegrassplayer

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Russian claims to have destroyed more military equipment that Ukraine has:

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Rheinmetall to open tank repair factory in Ukraine by the end of the month:

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Ukraine will begin teaching children about mine safety in school:

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Extremely good, long article on peace with Russia, why it's currently impossible, and the history of how we got to this situation:

https://www.brookings.edu/articles/t...-of-the-enemy/

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Is it time — as critics continue to argue — to seek a compromise solution instead of further arms deliveries in order to prevent further bloodshed or a disintegration of the Western coalition?2 Might it even be imperative for Ukraine to renounce regaining its entire territory in order to avoid defeat, the expansion of the war to neighboring states, a nuclear escalation by the Kremlin, or starvation in the world’s poorest countries? Certainly, Vladimir Putin appears to be calculating that time is on his side. “Far from seeking an off-ramp,” Alexander Gabuev writes, “Vladimir Putin is preparing for an even bigger war.”3

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And yet the calls for negotiation elide a central question: What if Putin’s system and the Russian president himself are unwilling — even unable — to reach such a compromise? The distinguished German historian of Eastern Europe Karl Schlögel has described Putinism succinctly: “a violence-based order following on the demise of a continental empire and a system of state socialism” rooted in a “Soviet-Stalinist DNA … It includes the targeted killing of political opponents, commonplace violence in prisons and camps, impunity for crimes, arbitrariness, conspiracy myths, the notion of ‘enemies of the people.’”

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This maximalist intransigence is by no means limited to Ukraine. On December 17, 2021, the Kremlin sent two similar “draft treaties” to the White House and to NATO headquarters in Brussels which articulated the Kremlin’s goals for Europe with remarkable clarity.7 The demands in the proposals — which were immediately dismissed by their recipients — included not just a veto on Ukrainian membership in the alliance but a revision of the Euro-Atlantic security acquis of the post-Cold War period on enlargement, basing, deployments, exercises, and cooperation with partners. They would have severely limited U.S. freedom of movement in Europe (with no concomitant limitations on Russia), reversed 25 years of Central and Eastern European integration into NATO and the European Union, ended the right of non-members to choose their own alliances, and re-established a Russian sphere of influence on the continent.8 The coup de grâce was the final stipulation (Art. 7) of the draft U.S.-Russia treaty, that all nuclear weapons should be returned to their national territories: it would have meant the end of the U.S. nuclear umbrella over Europe and thus quite possibly of the alliance itself.

As my Brookings colleagues Fiona Hill and Angela Stent have warned: “This war is about more than Ukraine. … Ukrainians and their supporters understand that in the event of a Russian victory, Putin’s expansionism would not end at the Ukrainian border. The Baltic states, Finland, Poland, and many other states that were once part of the Russian empire would be at risk of attack or overthrow from within.”

Konrad Schuller, the Eastern Europe correspondent of the German daily Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, adds that the proponents of negotiations misjudge the categorical nature of this hostility: “In the case of total enmity, compromise never serves anything but a tactical pause.” This approach, he writes, has “deep roots in the Soviet Union,” and has been demonstrated time and again by Putin, as in the systematic violation of the Minsk agreements from the outset.

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In the United States, however, the representatives of the realist school of international relations viewed this liberal narrative of a linear arc of history with the same skepticism they harbored for international institutions, international law, and the notion of a liberal world order in general. Realist theorists such as Kenneth Waltz, John Mearsheimer, and Stephen Walt argued that competition was the main driver of the international system. But because realists consider interests to be far more important than ideologies, they are also disinclined to consider a rival state or even an adversary an “enemy” in the Schmittian sense. The competitor’s interests are simply different; this also makes it easier to negotiate with them, to come to a compromise, or even to accept their demand for a sphere of influence.25 This rather relaxed — and quite condescending — view of the phenomenon of interstate competition was doubtless rooted in the fact that until recently the United States had no plausible peer rival. China’s rise has noticeably changed the realists’ tone.

A third school — the constructivists — took exception to the realists’ refusal to acknowledge identity and ideas as key factors in the behavior of states. And it was the constructivist Alexander Wendt who, a decade after the fall of the Berlin Wall, addressed the problem of the enemy head-on. He distinguished between Hobbesian, Lockean, and Kantian orders — based respectively on enmity, rivalry, and friendship.26 Explicitly citing Schmitt, Wendt defined the difference between enemy and rival: “An enemy does not recognize the right of the Self to exist as a free subject at all … A rival, in contrast, is thought to recognize the Self’s right to life and liberty.” He adds: “Violence between enemies has no internal limits. … Violence between rivals, in contrast, is self-limiting, constrained by recognition of each other’s right to exist.”27 Wendt cites post-Cold War conflicts occurring between “Palestinian and Israeli fundamentalists” and in Northern Ireland, Cambodia, Yugoslavia, and Rwanda as examples of hostility. All of these examples, however, are of internal or highly localized conflicts.

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The free democracies must now understand that they are dealing with a phenomenon they had believed to be historically obsolete: state rivals who see them as ideological enemies. Specifically, “absolute” enemies as defined by Schmitt, or ennemis structurels, as Le Drian put it. Or — to use a more old-fashioned term — mortal enemies. Whether the leadership in Beijing perceives the nations of the West in this sense can be left open here — but in the case of Putin and his regime, the case is clear. Putin’s frequent characterization of the Kyiv leadership as “Nazis,” the tirades with which Putin rails against a “corrupt” Ukraine and a “decadent” West and threatens to “cleanse” “filth and traitors” in his own population, the threats of nuclear Armageddon — these linguistic tropes are familiar from the history of 20th-century genocides.

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Conceivably, in the case of Putin himself, there is a personal psychopathology at play. Equally possibly, it is — as Fiona Hill argues — simply a cynical terror strategy designed to paralyze the resistance of Ukraine and the West.48 Perhaps Putin is convinced that he can win this way; perhaps he feels compelled to articulate his invasion as a life-or-death struggle because his power and his life depend on not losing? In any case, the facts are that this unhinged language is amplified daily in the most garish colors by members of the Kremlin leadership as well as Russia’s state-controlled media, that it is taken at face value by much of the Russian population, and that it is implemented in brutal and sadistic ways by Putin’s armed forces. In this respect, Putin’s publicly staged hostility has long since developed a political life of its own. “If anything,” writes Tatiana Stanovaya in a compelling analysis of the hardening mood of Russia’s next-generation security elites, “the country is becoming more committed to the fight … No one is seriously considering or discussing a diplomatic end to the war: a notion that looks to many high-profile Russians like a personal threat, given all the war crimes that their country has committed and the responsibility that the entire elite now bears for the carnage in Ukraine.”

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So how should the West grapple with this dilemma? Peace for Ukraine must at some point involve negotiations with Russia. But given the Kremlin’s implacable attitude, the burden of proof for the credibility of its negotiating offers would be extremely high. An armistice based on a freezing of the status quo in the form of continued Russian occupation of Crimea and the Donbas would reward Putin’s aggression and merely pause hostilities. The fact that the aggressor’s identity and the extent of his war crimes are beyond legal doubt will weigh heavily on any negotiations; an end to the fighting without some form of accountability, atonement, and reparations is hard to imagine. Diplomacy, in other words, would have to be very largely on Kyiv’s terms. That does not necessarily presuppose a Russian military defeat or a Ukrainian military victory. Conceivably, Russia could be forced to conclude that the price of pursuing Ukraine’s subjugation is unsustainably high by, for example, losing the support of a key non-Western power like China, or if the so-called Global South turned away from it. But as long as neither of those scenarios is within reach, helping Ukraine means helping it win on the battlefield.

Would that lead Russia to stop seeing it, and the West, as enemies? Certainly, Germany only embarked on the road to atonement after utter defeat, capitulation, and occupation — a scenario that seems unimaginable for Russia in this conflict. Given the risk that an end to the war becomes an interregnum between wars, only the strongest guarantees — a clear, constructive, and hopefully short path to NATO and EU membership — can satisfy Ukraine’s security interests, and indeed those of the Western alliance. The EU has accelerated membership talks, and the European Council is expected to kick off accession negotiations with Ukraine in December, a process that my Brookings colleague Carlo Bastasin notes comes with “huge political, financial, and institutional implications.”51 Managing it carefully is all the more crucial because NATO member states were unable to agree on accelerating Kyiv’s NATO accession at the Vilnius summit in July; the question will unquestionably return with full force at the alliance’s 75th-anniversary summit in Washington, DC in July 2024.

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08-20-2023 , 10:49 PM

#15

Bluegrassplayer

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Tank battle near Bakhmut:

Spoiler:

AFU clearing minefield:

https://twitter.com/UKikaski/status/...723715584?s=20

Importance of Ukrainian strikes to Russia's rear regarding morale, and why it might not matter:

https://twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/st...935065114?s=20

Grim assessment of Russian defenses and why comparing this counteroffensive to Kherson isn't accurate:

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Russians report street fighting in Robotyne:

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Very in depth article on why fighting uphill at Tokmak is difficult, and what being able to fight downhill will mean for Ukraine:

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/202...sive-literally

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Aided by the 47th, Ukraine’s 65th and 116th brigades have managed to liberate the northern third of Robotyne. The full liberation of Robotyne would represent securing a highway through the first major line of Russian defenses—and major progress.

Yet to help bring Ukraine to this point, it appears the 47th has paid a heavy price. Oryx has documented the loss of 50 Bradleys; 24 destroyed, 26 damaged. This is the absolute baseline of losses the 47th could have suffered, as Oryx counts only visually confirmed losses.

However, the hardware Ukraine has lost with regards to Bradleys has been quickly replenished. Since the start of the offensive, the U.S. has sent 93 additional Bradley units. This has likely made good on the 47th’s hardware losses. Bradleys are renowned for the survivability they offer troops, so in many cases of Bradleys that were immobilized but not destroyed, the crews were able to simply retreat.

But for all the heavy armor and high survivability, Ukraine is still losing troops, including in damaged Bradleys. It has likely lost some combat strength from the first day of the counteroffensive, but thanks to plentiful replacements for the lost Bradleys, Ukraine likely is still fielding a powerful force.

Ukraine has steadfastly preserved some of its most powerful and decorated units, such as the 82nd, 1st Tank, and 92nd Mechanized brigades. It chose this moment to commit one of its most powerful fresh brigades: the 82nd Air Assault, with western tanks (Challenger 2) and IFVs (Marders and Strykers).

With this new combination of the 82nd and 47th, Ukraine is now attempting to break through Russia’s defense line between Novoprokopivka and Verbove. It is here that Ukraine has an opportunity to finally fight past all of Russia’s counter offensive defenses on higher ground, and start fighting downhill for a change.

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08-21-2023 , 05:48 AM

#16

Bluegrassplayer

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Great video on Euromaidan Revolution, history and common misconceptions, Russian propaganda regarding it:

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Article on newest Russian lawsuit to cannibalize another Russian billionaire:

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Clickbait title, but good article on the importance of the September election, despite Putin standing no chance of losing:

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ISW on Russia's inability to enforce naval blockade:

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Failed moon mission:

https://www.reuters.com/business/aer...it-2023-08-20/

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Russian state television put news of the loss of Luna-25 at number 8 in its line up at noon and gave it just 26 seconds of coverage, after a news about fires on Tenerife and a 4 minute item about a professional holiday for Russian pilots and crews.

[...]

Russian officials had hoped that the Luna-25 mission would show Russia can compete with the superpowers in space despite its post-Soviet decline and the vast cost of the Ukraine war.

"The flight control system was a vulnerable area, which had to go through many fixes," said Anatoly Zak, the creator and publisher of www.RussianSpaceWeb.com which tracks Russian space programmes.

Zak said Russia had also gone for the much more ambitious moon landing before undertaking a simpler orbital mission - the usual practice for the Soviet Union, the United States, China and India.

Last edited by Bluegrassplayer; 08-21-2023 at 05:54 AM.

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08-21-2023 , 06:35 AM

#17

Bluegrassplayer

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F-16 pledges from Netherlands and Denmark:

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08-22-2023 , 11:43 AM

#18

Bluegrassplayer

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Liberation of Robotyne, can't believe people were still living there; importance of taking this village:

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WarGonzo interview with mobilized units where the explain how other Russians look down on them for being in this war:

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08-23-2023 , 02:50 AM

#19

Bluegrassplayer

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Short range tactical nukes moved to Belarus; USA embassy in Belarus warning:

https://apnews.com/article/poland-be...f9b5901b07c2b4

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Poland’s President Andrzej Duda confirmed Tuesday that Russia has begun shifting some short-range nuclear weapons to neighboring Belarus, a move that he said will change the security architecture of the region and the entire NATO military alliance.

Both Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Belarusian counterpart Alexander Lukashenko said last month that Moscow had already shipped some of its tactical nuclear weapons to Belarus after announcing the plan in March. The U.S. and NATO haven’t confirmed the move.

https://by.usembassy.gov/alert-u-s-e...ugust-21-2023/

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U.S. citizens in Belarus should depart immediately. Consider departing via the remaining border crossings with Lithuania and Latvia, or by plane. U.S. citizens are not permitted to enter Poland overland from Belarus. Do not travel to Russia or to Ukraine.

Latest drone strike in Moscow; Moscow police upset about anti-drone guns due to making them impotent; drones strike airbase in Russia:

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Claim that Surovikin has been dismissed (was previously under house arrest following Wagner coup):

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Wagner summer camp for kidnapped Ukrainian children:

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Result of conscripting prisoners and returning them to the public:

https://www.thedailybeast.com/how-pu...home-in-russia

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Pulled out of the brutal prison system and thrown straight into frontline battles where ex-convicts are treated as little more than cannon fodder by Russian generals or Wagner commanders, huge numbers have died on the battlefield. Those who survive are horrifically traumatized.

Several of them have already been accused of gruesome crimes on their return to civilian life. Ivan Rossomakhin, 28, was reportedly accused of murder during an eight-day break back home in the Kirov region after joining the Wagner Group from prison where he had been sentenced to 14 years for murder.

Locals said he had been stumbling around the village, with a pitchfork and ax, making wild threats, “I’ll kill everyone! I’ll cut up a whole family!” No one was able to stop him before he allegedly killed a woman.

Another convicted killer who was released to go fight in Ukraine has been arrested in connection with the murder of six civilians after he served his stint in the war. Igor Sofonov, 37, was reportedly released from prison to join Storm Z, which is the defense ministry’s state-backed version of the Wagner ex-prisoner brigades.

His six alleged victims were found in two burning buildings in the village of Derevyannoye.

Romanova and her prisoner rights group have been trying to provide support for Teploukhov, who says he has not received the pay owed to him for his service in Ukraine. “There is no doubt that 100 percent of all these soldiers, ex-prisoners, have bad forms of PTSD, many of them use drugs, drink a lot of alcohol—nobody provides any psychiatric help for them and there is a big chance that many of them will commit more crimes or die upon their return from overdose of drinking,” she said.

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08-23-2023 , 03:53 PM

#20

Mike Haven

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Join Date: Sep 2002 Posts: 14,546

Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin presumed dead after Russia plane crash

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08-23-2023 , 07:10 PM

#21

Bluegrassplayer

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Incredibly predictable, but still ridiculous news to wake up to somehow.

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08-23-2023 , 10:02 PM

#22

Bluegrassplayer

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ISW says "that the Russian General Staff now has 'carte blanche' and has purged all proteges of Army General Sergey Surovikin"; excellent analysis of Prig's death and what it means:

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After 6 month intelligence operation, Russian helicopter flies to Ukraine for the crew to surrender or defect (unsure):

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Addressing 10 myths about USA supplying aid to Ukraine:

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Good article on Russia's attack of Ukrainian culture:

https://www.bbc.com/culture/article/...s-and-heritage

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Damage to Ukraine's cultural sites has been extensive, according to Unesco (the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organisation). Its Red List of Cultural Objects at Risk records verifiable damage to more than 259 cultural sites since the war began (not including damage from the destruction of the Nova Kakhovka Dam, where full assessment has not yet been possible).

Destroying the cultural heritage of a country as a weapon to undermine its people has long been a tactic of war. In recent decades, that has included the destruction of cultural and religious sites in the former Yugoslavia in the 1990s; the Buddhas of Bamiyan in Afghanistan in 2001; and The Great Mosque of Aleppo in Syria in 2016.

[...]

In October 2022, Vladimir Putin imposed martial law in four Ukrainian territories illegally annexed by Russia. According to The Art Newspaper, when he did that, he also "explicitly 'legalised' the looting of the country's cultural heritage in the name of 'preservation'".

The ravages of war is not just to physical structures, says Unesco, it's an attack on the "intangible heritage and the cultural and creative industries of the country" too. According to Krista Pikkat, Unesco's director of culture and emergency situations, in 2022, the Ukrainian government reported that 37% of the country's creative industries had lost their jobs, and that 90% of creative businesses suffered vast losses of turnover.

[...]

Another great artistic loss is the life's work of late artist Polina Rayko. She began painting at 69, to process her grief after the death of her husband, and losing her only daughter in a car crash. She painted every inch of her house, in Oleshky, in southern Ukraine, in a fantastical, folk art style. It was considered a national treasure, drawing many visitors. But then in June came the destruction of the huge Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power station, in a Russian-controlled area of Kherson. The resulting flood is believed to have engulfed Rayko's house-museum, as well as villages and towns downstream of it. The power station itself, built in 1954, was the only structure of its kind in the Soviet monumental classicism style, which has deep European roots.

Olia Hercules, a chef from Kherson, posted on Instagram about Rayko: "Her story and art gave strength and inspired me immensely… Only photographs and documentaries on YouTube remain. I cannot stop crying." She added: "Please remember her and her beautiful house full of unique art, now under murky water of the catastrophic flood."

The flood also submerged Scythian and Cossack burial mounds, old Cossack settlements and Tyagyn Fortress, a monument of Lithuanian and Crimean Tartar architecture from the 14th and 15th Centuries. But as the waters receded there was a small win, as an ancient settlement, named the Cossack Meadow, was revealed.

[...]

What is chilling, says Brylynska, is what's happening in libraries in occupied cities. "When Russians invade, the first thing they do is remove all the books from the libraries and destroy them, and replace them with their own books." In Kherson, and Melitopol, there are no Ukrainian language books left in the libraries, she says. "They are using their culture to fight us, so we need the power to fight back." She sees one positive lesson in this: "It shows the strength of Ukrainian culture is the scariest thing for them. They are threatened by it."

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08-23-2023 , 10:42 PM

#23

Bluegrassplayer

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ISW assessment on Prig's assassination:

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Putin may have concluded that he had sufficiently separated Prigozhin from Wagner and could kill him without turning Prigozhin into a martyr for the remaining Wagner personnel.

Alternatively, Putin may have decided that Prigozhin had crossed a pre-established redline with his efforts to retain Wagner’s access to operations in Africa.

It is also possible that Putin has intended to execute Prigozhin for some time and that the downing of Prigozhin’s plane on August 23 was coincidental timing, although this is unlikely.

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