[2-4] AQ EPT Prague
Warning: long read for just 1 hand.
Game:
50/100 in Crowns, 2/4 in euros, to keep it simple, in euros. During the EPT Prague.
10-handed, this is Heros third hand on this table, previous table was broken up.
First hand on this table Hero 3bets. Second hand Hero calls in position and raises the c-bet of the opener. Nothing spectacular, but Hero might be considered as very active. Villain is seated directly left of Hero and is observing Hero in the first and second hand.
Hero: white, 20/25, Dutch, 1000
Villain: White, +/- 25, first impression solid regular, stack 1500
UTG: came along from the previous table, opens to many hands and has sizing tells (open to 3x several times a weak holding)
Hand:
UTG opens to 12, UTG+2 calls 12, Hero in MP 3bets to 52 holding A
Q
, Villain directly seated left of Hero 4bets fairly quickly to 112, Hero calls
Flop: K
9
9
(254)
Hero checks, Villain asks pot size, dealer is not allowed to say it, Hero answers with 254, Villain bets 88, Hero calls.
Turn: K
9
9
5
(430)
Hero checks, Villain bets 280, Hero calls
River: K
9
9
5
3
(990)
Hero checks, Villain bets 550 effective all-in and starts playing and twisting with his last chip. Hero calls.
Analysis:
3betting AQo with read on UTG, fairly standard. for value, initiative and to get it maximum 3 way to the flop. Hero expects that Villain doesnt expect much folds on his 4bets seeing the active start of Hero on this table. This means Villain has almost no complete air in his range, but also less monsters because Villain would size it bigger if hes not expecting much folds on his 4bet. Hero expects not so many pockets, Villain 4bets fairly quickly, he didnt take much time to consider flatting. Hero estimates Villains range on KQ, AQ, AJ, A10s, QJs and some of the time 99/AA, A10o, A9s, KJo and J10s. 1000 deep effective against this range, Hero is willing to call, even out of position.
Flop: K
9
9
(254), Hero expects Villain to c-bet this flop about 100% of the time. Villain bets exactly 1/3rd of the pot after asking the pot size. This bet is suspicious small, as though Villain tries to let it look like he flopped big. Hero is ahead enough of the time against Villains preflop +c-bet range, so Hero calls, also to re-evaluate the turn.
Turn: K
9
9
5
(430),Villain now bets quite big, 2/3rd pot. In combination with the smallish flop bet this seems illogical. Villain will think Hero has not so many Kx and 9x in his range seeing the preflop action. Heros range looks more like 88/QQ. If villain wants to get value from these hands, a 2/3rd pot bet doesnt make sense. The turn brings a backdoor flushdraw, Hero holds the Q
, so the possible hands that catch a flushdraw are A
J
,A
10
and J
10
. Many players tend to continue betting when they catch extra outs and they size their turn bet bigger because they really want to take the pot down and think they generate extra fold equity with a bigger sizing. A valuehand makes less sense with the big sizing in combination with Heros perceived range (88/QQ). Hero calls.
River: K
9
9
5
3
(990), Villain moves all-in for effective 550 and starts playing with his chip, twisting it over the table. This looks likes Villain wants to look comfortable. If he has a value hand he doesnt want to look comfortable. Villains value range on the river is very small, AA/KK/AK and maybe KQ. With the blockers of Hero there are not so much value combinations left.
To sum it up,
All assumptions arent completely reliable:
- Preflop sizing a bit too small for a monster
- To small c-bet sizing, wants to let it look nutty
- To big turn sizing, Heros perceived range mostly 88/QQ, so expect smaller sizing with value hands.
- Small value range on river
- Wants to look comfortable
- Weak perceived range of hero
It are all assumptions, but all together Villains story doesnt make sense to be a value hand. AQ seems to be the ideal bluff catcher, AJ/A10 are more difficult to call with because Villain can be bluffing with AQ/AJ that still beats you.
Hero calls, Villain shows A
10