I just happened to see my name pop up in the subscribed threads on tapatalk. I haven't been following this thread very well lately, but I'm flattered you'd want my opinion. I'll read through it more closely a little later.
Although I feel like if the question is how to model the costs/benefits of more or less drastic social distancing policies then I'm not sure I know the answers. I read this recently, which provides one perspective:
https://johnhcochrane.blogspot.com/2...carefully.html
Quote:
Closing down the economy is a panic response. It is not how we should be fighting the virus. We should be following the Korea, Taiwan, Singapore models: Test everybody. Trace all their contacts. Isolate those who test positive or with symptoms. Isolate people who are most likely to get really sick and use scarce ventilators. Tamp down hotspots with local lockdowns. Allow business to open, but with stringent protocols adapted to that business and its employees. The options are not lockdown vs. back to nothing. The needed option is reopen with social distance.
The cat is out of the bag on that one, as our governments were caught flat-footed -- as governments almost always are -- and responded late. The snafus and regulatory roadblocks to get testing ramped up and even to produce or allow the importation of masks and gowns are scandalous. But here we are. The situation is out of control. Sometimes you do hit the panic button.
The point of the oped -- closing down the economy is the panic button. It is going to cost something like a trillion dollars a month. So during the next few weeks, our governments -- federal state and local -- need to be getting ahead of the curve, so they can implement the above appropriate public health response.
It probably suffers from the same issue I always have: arguing both sides a little bit (i.e. we need to shutdown now but also need to try to avoid shutdowns in the future by being better prepared to act more effectively).
But I think it makes some sense to say that shelter in place orders are the panic button, and if we had been better prepared we might have been able to do more with less economic disruption. I also think it's likely true that we can't have a complete economic shutdown for a long enough time (months?) to completely eliminate the threat without even more disastrous consequences, so we will be forced to develop something like the "stringent protocols" the author mentions.
I also think it seems clear that the threat is severe enough (in comparison to the flu, or car accidents, or ...) that hitting the panic button was the only reasonable response once we'd gotten past the point where the South Korean model was possible. My state shutdown earlier than a lot of other states (especially relative to number of cases) and I think that was the right call, even if it's unsustainable in the long term. It's the only way now to slow down the rate of growth and get enough time to prepare for the fact that we're going to be dealing with this for some months. So I think it's really important that people who can avoid social contact right now do so. Non-essential businesses really should stay closed for a period of time. Especially in areas with higher risk of significant outbreaks.
Of course it's easy for me to say; I already work from home. It's not putting much strain on my household. That's why it's also really important for government to take action that facilitates the social distancing, e.g. via the types of relief in the stimulus bill (should really be called a relief bill?). I get that it's hard to have much confidence we're going to do a great job of that, and I understand why it's difficult for individual small business owners to make the decision to go into lockdown mode proactively, or employees to give up a guaranteed paycheck for some slightly vaguer assurances. But it seems likely to me that a relatively shorter (4 weeks? 6 weeks?) but more drastic lockdown is probably still better than a really drawn-out version where there isn't enough compliance to slow the spread down but there's still an enormous economic impact (e.g. some half-measures for 6 months?), so people should try to comply now as much as they can.
To be clear though, my confidence level on how to think about the tradeoffs is very low.