Quote:
Originally Posted by that_pope
Quote:
Originally Posted by DougL
I'm with that_pope, especially in a 1/2 blind game. 87s vs 3 bet in the SB with an active good player still to act is something I'd pass on. Do you want to play it from the SB in a possibly 4 bet pot with 4 players? In a 2/3 blind game or from the BB it is a tougher question. Given you hit a full house, I'm sad they didn't give more action.
They say a picture is worth 10^3 words but a little text would’ve actually been nice here, Doug provided some good thoughts, and I’ll provide some simulations so we evaluate this situation quantitatively.
87s is definitely the bottom of my calling range, and it wouldn’t be there at all if I wasn’t fairly certain this pot was going to be 5-handed. So let’s evaluate preflop equity:
(Brief aside: trying to assign an appropriate range to the early position limper finally sent me over the edge with PokerStove, and I downloaded Equilab to see if it was any better. Wow! Way more versatile, supereasy to assign a range of something like 20-50% with the 2-way slider, as well as having some slick predefined ranges. If you’re still using Stove I highly recommend switching.)
For our early position limper: he was not a total noob, I think he mainly plays tournaments and wasn’t really prepared for this game, I’ll assign him a limping range of 15-50%.
DocSwag: semi-regular in this game, TAG, his raise of a limper is probably ~ 20%
Button 3-better: not much in the way of reads, I believe this is his first 3-bet, I assigned him 10.4% (3-betting vs MP3 open raise Equilab range, even though this isn’t quite the way it was played)
BB: plays too many hands, I’ll assign him the Big Blind Defense: Call vs BU Open Raise range
Other info we have: DocSwag did not cap preflop, highly unlikely he has a pair here (Doc-I would’ve capped here if I were you, you must have >20% equity preflop unless you had total crap and were making a move).
So with the ranges assigned, I have 18.9% equity, a bit shy of the 20% I need. And given my crappy position, I guess my equity is probably even a bit lower, closer to 18%.
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Equity Win Tie
MP3 14.60% 13.70% 0.90% { 66-33, A6s-A2s, K8s-K2s, Q9s-Q2s, J9s-J4s, T6s+, 96s+, 86s+, 76s, 65s, A9o-A2o, K9o-K4o, QTo-Q7o, J7o+, T7o+, 98o }
CO 23.14% 22.06% 1.08% { 66+, A4s+, K8s+, Q9s+, J9s+, T9s, A9o+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo }
BU 28.27% 27.33% 0.94% { 66+, A9s+, KQs, ATo+, KQo }
SB 18.86% 18.18% 0.68% { 87s }
BB 15.13% 14.20% 0.93% { 33-22, A5s-A2s, KTs-K2s, Q2s+, J3s+, T4s+, 95s+, 84s+, 74s+, 63s+, 53s+, 43s, A7o-A2o, KTo-K4o, Q8o+, J8o+, T8o+, 97o+, 87o, 76o }
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For ****s and grins, I thought I’d see where 98s and JTs stood equity-wise in this situation, 98s was 18.8% (surprisingly a tad lower than 87s?) and JTs was 20.3%, just enough to call.
And, for completeness, how does 87s measure up if BB finds a fold? Not so good…
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Equity Win Tie
MP3 17.04% 16.21% 0.84% { 66-33, A6s-A2s, K8s-K2s, Q9s-Q2s, J9s-J4s, T6s+, 96s+, 86s+, 76s, 65s, A9o-A2o, K9o-K4o, QTo-Q7o, J7o+, T7o+, 98o }
CO 27.13% 25.98% 1.14% { 66+, A4s+, K8s+, Q9s+, J9s+, T9s, A9o+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo }
BU 33.77% 32.69% 1.08% { 66+, A9s+, KQs, ATo+, KQo }
SB 22.06% 21.61% 0.44% { 87s }
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So, to summarize: definitely a mistake, but a relatively minor one when I'm sure this will be a 5-handed pot, not really in the “lighting money on fire” category. JTs barely playable in this situation. Switch to Equilab if you haven’t already done so.