Quote:
Originally Posted by JarnoV
If you don't mind me asking, how do you estimate that your "winrate has slowed down"?
Just to remind that it takes 100k hands to estimate the winrate within around +-1.5BB. To detect changes smaller than that, at least somewhat reliably, would obviously take a lot more hands.
In general, I think it's somewhat delusional to just look at past results and assume that one's true winrate is the past results. It's practically impossible to know your true winrate and therefore it's best not to assume anything too optimistic. There are players who most likely are winners in the game and have experienced downswings in the order of 500BB+.
Reasoning that one doesn't have big downswings because one has such a big winrate is somewhat circular, because if you don't have big downswings, then your winrate is likely to be high. That said, someone with a true winrate of several big bets is of course unlikely to experience 400BB+ downswings, but, like I said, we don't the true winrate. We only have past results.
PS. I'm not saying that you don't have a huge winrate. ;-)
The Industrial Revolution and its consequences have been a disaster
for the human race. They have greatly increased the life-expectancy of
those of us who live in "advanced" countries, but they have
destabilized society, have made life unfulfilling, have subjected
human beings to indignities, have led to widespread psychological
suffering (in the Third World to physical suffering as well) and have
inflicted severe damage on the natural world. The continued
development of technology will worsen the situation. It will certainly
subject human beings to greater indignities and inflict greater damage
on the natural world, it will probably lead to greater social
disruption and psychological suffering, and it may lead to increased
physical suffering even in "advanced" countries.
By "feelings of inferiority" we mean not only inferiority feelings
in the strictest sense but a whole spectrum of related traits: low
self-esteem, feelings of powerlessness, depressive tendencies,
defeatism, guilt, self-hatred, etc. We argue that modern leftists tend
to have such feelings (possibly more or less repressed) and that these
feelings are decisive in determining the direction of modern leftism.
Psychologists use the term "socialization" to designate the
process by which children are trained to think and act as society
demands. A person is said to be well socialized if he believes in and
obeys the moral code of his society and fits in well as a functioning
part of that society. It may seem senseless to say that many leftists
are over-socialized, since the leftist is perceived as a rebel.
Nevertheless, the position can be defended. Many leftists are not such
rebels as they seem.
Thus, in order to avoid serious psychological problems, a human
being needs goals whose attainment requires effort, and he must have a
reasonable rate of success in attaining his goals.
I hope you understand JarnoV... I would hate for my honest opinion on this matter to cause any further confusion ITT.