5-handed. Villain is a reg 33/25/1.7/41, MP open 25%.



My thoughts are between c/c, b/f, b/c, c/r/f )

I would start by eliminating all options that include folding.

We beat J8s, 99, 88, maybe a 9s7s spazout, possibly some small 2 pairs if villain is horrible, possibly some combo draws if he is really aggro. Highly doubt 86s is in his range.

Villain will almost certainly check back J8s and counterfeited 2 pairs if he capped them for some reason. He will often check back 88/99. He will obv always raise or 3bet us with AT+ or maybe a8/a9. If he capped a draw, he will likely bet again.

The bulk of his range will likely be AT, AA, J8s, 88, 99. There are only 3 combos of AT/AA and 10 combos of J8s/88/99... hands that he will likely check on the river.

We need to lead out to prevent the hands we beat from checking back, and we aren't going to be able to fold getting 15:1. So it's a bet-call imo. Check-raise is terrible, as he is only going to bet when we are losing or he is bluffing. Check-call isn't as good because the best almost always goes in bad for us. B/f could actually work with a near perfect read, but you don't seem to have such a read. But basically, you would need to know he is not capable of spazzing 88/99 or bluff raising you (which could happen if he catches you making too many hero folds). And then you would need to make such a play very rarely and never tell anyone about it.

C/r/f? That would be putting in a raise when you are almost always beat and then folding in massive pot... one of the worst plays you can possibly make in LHE.

Easy b/c and it's not even close. For all the reasons UG already explained

Is it standard in $5/$10 to check back 99 and 77 on river? What about getting value from hands like T9s, J8s, 77, A8, 97s, 9xss in heroes range? Hero will have to call getting 1:13.2 with the chance of villain bluffing a missed draw.

to Unguarded
I believe instead of 88 you mean 77
And probably you forgot A9 and A7 in villain's range. But that doesn't seem to change things.
I actually played bet-call and lost to A9.
I'm not sure if his raise was good but that worked this time.

His 4 bet is horrific unless you're terrible. Either you're bad enough a 4bet has value, or he's bad enough you should and start putting in bets a little thinner

Eh, changed my mind. May not be horrific but is going to spew against most winning players who take your line

Yes, I meant 77/A7... not 88/A8... oops.

Villain should not be capping A9/A7 on the turn. That is just beyond horrible. We can have 16 combos of J8 and 16 combos of 86 on the turn. When we 3bet, villain should really only be capping J8s because we have so many straight combos. Maybe villain is one of those idiots who likes to cap turn and check back the river... if so, it becomes even more important to donk into his turn caps. Very common situation btw... when it is possible for one person to have 32 combos of straights and there is a lot of action, their range becomes very straight-heavy.

But anyway, we should not be expecting villain to value bet 77/99 because capping these hands on the turn is pretty bad. Again, we have J8/86 a huge % of the time when we 3bet. So we need to be expecting him to both make a crappy turn cap and then to value bet the river.

Suppose our range is J8/86/AA/TT/99/77/AT/A9/A7 on the turn (we should not be 3-betting A7/A9 btw). That is 32 combos of straights and 39 combos of 2 pair/sets. In villain's eyes, it is actually 32 combos of straights and 22 combos of 2 pair/sets since he holds A9. That is why I say he should only be capping J8s on the turn.

So by putting more than just J8s in his range, I was already assuming less than perfect play by villain.

Just woke up and hadn't eaten yet when I posted that... we obv should not be defending 86o vs a good player's HJ raise at 5/T. So just 20 combos of j8o and 86s. But still... if villain has a set or Ax 2 pair, there are not enough combos of non-straights for villain to cap turn without the nut strt.

Sorry, my analysis is kinda rambling. Not used to posting strat lately. A spot where I instantly know to b/c riv, but am not used to breaking it down for others lol.

Was basically my thought process until I rethought it and realized we have no info on OP. If he's the king of guy who slow plays a flopped straight everything changes.

Either villain made a bad 4 bet or OP has holes that are being exploited. Only OP can decide that. Back in the day when I first started playing 50/100+ one of the most useful things I ever did was start looking at every hand where a villain I thought was a killer did something stupid. Sometimes I realized it was because I was making a mistake and needed to adjust and sometimes I realized the killer was just as clueless as every other monkey and quit being "afraid" of them

to ZOMG_Rigged
I believe my image is quite aggresive. But I have never seen him expoiting me, although for some reason I didn't have notes on him, but usually I remember very good players and those that try to exploit me. I remembered him as weak. Immediately after the hand I thought that he overplayed his hand on turn.
to Unguarded
Thank you very much. This is a very good poker lesson for me.
Usually this'J8s/86s/AA/TT/99/77/AT/A9/A7 and something like 87s' would be 3-bet turn range. I usually don't defend J8o vs MP, probably I should start.

5-10 seems tough last few months, bunch of good pros coming down - beng_51, ottercopf, sinsadir, kind diamant, valesco, jadajamasa, scorpio04...How can I beat those guys?
Have to study game theory or they will throw me off the limit. Suggest the best way to do it

Sorry about the last post. Bad mood after loss. )

If there's only one thing you learn from this thread it should be this. Everyone that plays higher than you that you're afraid of is an idiot just clicking buttons. No need to be afraid

Is bet /call much better than check / call? I just guess in my experience a reg is almost never raising this river with a hand worse than hero's.

But a reg should never be 4 betting the turn either

You would need to assume some terrible play by villain. A good player should be able to play us perfectly on the river against a check. That is... a good player should know to check back anything worse than aces full. We are indeed screwed when we get raised, but we should be just as screwed when we c/c. So our only chance to make the river a +EV situation for us is to b/c (or make a super secret b/f if your read is nearly perfect).

The scenarios where c/c is better require some very specific reads on some very poor play which is hard to obtain.

What do you think actually of my turn bet? Maybe I should leave TT, 99, 77 for a checkraise here? And what about J8?

yeah, this like a motha****a!

And here's the kind of thinking I mentioned earlier that could makes villains play not horrible. If you do this, it means your b/3b equals 2 pair and he can 4 bet the **** out of you, or just check behind, and you can't b/3b him when he raises AJ on the turn

I guess my 97 is no good anymore. Muck

1. What hands should we leave for call flop, c/r turn?
2. What hands should we play c/r flop, c/r turn?

My guess is
1. A7, 77 50%
2. TT, 99, 77 50%

2.Probably leave sets for b/3b.
Then it would be
AT 50%, A9, A7 (if it is still in our range) and for c/r/r some J8 25%