CO is playing 72/14/0.54 over just 43 hands. What's our turn play? (I'll post turn and river action later)

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Pre Flop: Hero is MP with K J
1 fold, Hero raises, CO calls, 2 folds, BB calls

Flop: (3.25 BB) Q A K (3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, CO calls, BB folds

Turn: (4.25 BB) Q (2 players)
Hero ?

I'd check/call turn and then check/fold the river. I think he'll peel with a lot of Jx, Tx hands and I assume he'll bluff them a non-trivial percentage of the time. If he never bluffs, then you can obviously just check/fold the turn.

Since he is a donk, I bet turn so that he folds any T or J.

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I think you can b/f the turn. He;s going to call with any diamond, and we can easily fold to a raise.

If the river is a blank I think we can c/c, but as passive as he is he may just check behind with all of his whiffs.

Villain is so goddamn loose that Jx and Tx obviously have to make up a decent chunk of his range, but all the same, to consider ourselves anything but a dog on the turn seems absurd to me. He has managed to call a preflop raise and then a flop bet on AKQ so far. It seems that both of those things together should tilt his range (among the hands that don't beat us) to something like Kx, Jxs, Txs, J9o, J8o, T9o, T8o, and PPs. And that's a lot of hands. But, well, we're tied with the Kx unless Villain is freerolling us, we'll be facing flush and/or chop outs versus some of the Jx, Tx and PP hands, and there are boatloads of Ax and Qx and XdXd hands he could have instead (along with the unlikely but not impossible JT).

The main reason to consider betting is that he probably won't raise unless he has Qx or better, and checking does give him the opportunity to check some of his loose flop peels behind (while also sometimes bluffing them). But, damn, it's not as if, given the choice, we actually want anymore money going into this pot. If we could immediately declare the betting over and go straight to the river card and showdown, we'd take that deal.

So if we're betting, it's because we're out of position and we're still two streets from showdown. Putting one more bet in does seem reasonable to me, but it's not so easy to arrange that with any certainty.

Mostly, it seems like a crappy spot to me. Versus a diamondless A2o, we have 6 outs, and Villain might try to represent something too if we check to him, so check-folding the turn does seem bad. Meanwhile, though, if we bet the turn, get called like we expect, and then river the 2c, we're an awkward river check-call away from showdown. And it's a check-call I would make, since our show of river weakness might have encouraged Villain to take a shot on this super-scary board. But his stats do suggest he's generally passive, and, given that, Sweetjazz's check-call, check-fold turn and river sequence does seem like a serious consideration to me.

Edit: I don't really know what's best, but the idea I'm working with here is, basically, that checking the turn gives Villain the opportunity to take a shot if he wants to, and the play is based on the hope that he isn't aggressive enough to take two shots.

i c/c down

I did fire on the turn, knowing that any randon J or 10 are well in his range, and he'd probably fold the turn unless he had a diamond. What's our river play now?

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Pre Flop: Hero is MP with K J
1 fold, Hero raises, CO calls, 2 folds, BB calls

Flop: (3.25 BB) Q A K (3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, CO calls, BB folds

Turn: (4.25 BB) Q (2 players)
Hero bets, CO calls

River: (6.25 BB) 8 (2 players)
Hero ?

what else can you do but c/c?

the pots to big to c/f

your hand sucks too much to value bet

c/c the river

and NickC, as much as I can appreciate all of your analysis, you are giving a 74 VPIP way too much credit. He can easily have a T6 with a diamond and peel that flop and turn. Any backdoor draws are usually enough for 74VPIPs to peel a flop.

Here's the rest of the hand. Probably the last thing I expected him to turn over (given he didn't raise the turn)

Full Tilt Poker $2.00/$4.00 Limit Hold'em - 6 players
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Pre Flop: Hero is MP with K J
1 fold, Hero raises, CO calls, 2 folds, BB calls

Flop: (3.25 BB) Q A K (3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, CO calls, BB folds

Turn: (4.25 BB) Q (2 players)
Hero bets, CO calls

River: (6.25 BB) 8 (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets, Hero calls

CO shows QJ

FWIW, I agree that Villain would peel the flop with T6, with or without a diamaond. I think he might peel the turn with or without a diamond as well.

I didn't include T6o in the speculative range I gave because I thought he might actually fold that preflop. There are no guarantees as far as that goes, of course, but Villain doesn't actually play every hand.

Mainly, I think it's hard to like our hand on the turn. I'd expect the Ax and Qx hands to be approximately as plentiful as the Jx and Tx hands. (I realize 7 J's and T's are available, and only 5 A's and Q's are available, but I'm expecting Villain to play any ace preflop but not every T or J.) And then there are the flushes. I'm certainly not assuming Villain has a flush (I doubt he does), but as he's probably playing any suited cards, there certainly are a lot of ways that he could have a flush.

So, anyway, I think we're a dog on the turn. But even if this is true, it doesn't give us a clear best play. I don't know what the best big-street plan is for this hand.

This may be a dumb question... but if it's answered elsewhere someone could point me in the right direction. what does 72/14/0.5 donk mean? is that something from poker tracker or what?

Yeah, the 72 means he voluntarily puts money in the pot for 72 percent of his hands (if he gets a "free" play in the BB, it doesn't count), the 14 means he raises preflop 14 percent of the time, and the 0.5 means that postflop his ratio of (bets + raises) divided by calls is 0.5 (so, in this case, he calls twice as often as he bets or raises postflop).

As for "donk," I don't know what that means anymore. The term seems to be getting around. The other night, some guy called my turn push (in NL) completely against the odds with his short-stack with a low flush draw and nothing else, and then after he hit his hand on the river he taunted me by typing "Keep donking" in the chatbox after the hand.

Edit: Er, actually, "donk" is short for "donkey" and is basically synonymous with "fish," although I think it tends to refer to a player who is more stupidly aggressive at times than a classic loose-passive fish. However, as I've suggested, you will see and hear fish using the term these days too, I guess because most donks don't know that they're donks.

I once had a guy in a B&M call me a donk because he didn't think I was tipping enough.

On this board, it most commonly means:

-Someone who sucks at poker
-The act of betting when you weren't the aggressor in the previous round

right


donk -


Noun - oink

no, just kidding

noun - one who sucks at poker

verb - betting into thehip after he raises PF, ****ers

FWIW I had nearly this exact same hand against a nearly identical villain last night (at .1/.25 mind you) and called down to be shown 99. I have no idea if this happens enough to warrant calling 2BBs to the river however.

since his range is wide and he probably peel a lot of junk on the flop I would bet/fold turn.

Check-call the turn. This says to villain that you might have a flush draw. Therefore, he will be encouraged to bluff at non-diamond rivers. So, I would check-call turn and check-fold a diamond river and check-call a non-diamond river.