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Bet this turn? Bet this turn?

08-07-2008 , 02:07 PM
This guy is a spewy LAG: 68.2/38.8/1.82. I've been isolating him a lot. He is pretty random pre and post-flop with his betting.

Here is an earlier hand against him. I felt pretty comfortable calling down any pair against this guy on any board:

Poker Stars $1/$2 Limit Hold'em - 6 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

Pre Flop: Hero is SB with 5 5
3 folds, BTN raises, Hero 3-bets, 1 fold, BTN calls

Flop: (7 SB) 4 A Q (2 players)
Hero bets, BTN raises, Hero calls

Turn: (5.5 BB) 6 (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets, Hero calls

River: (7.5 BB) 8 (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets, Hero calls

Spoiler:
Final Pot: 9.5 BB
BTN shows 5h 6s (a pair of Sixes)
Hero mucks 5s 5c
BTN wins 9.125 BB
(Rake: $0.75)


Here is the turn hand:

Poker Stars $1/$2 Limit Hold'em - 6 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

Pre Flop: Hero is BB with 4 4
3 folds, BTN raises, SB 3-bets, Hero caps!, 1 fold, SB calls

Flop: (10 SB) T J 9 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, SB calls

Turn: (6 BB) Q (2 players)
SB checks, Hero...
08-07-2008 , 02:31 PM
Crap, what a godawful board. I'm thinking a bet can't possibly be for value here, and, while Villain may dump some chop outs if he's got, like, 5s4s, I doubt he's folding any better hand or any piece of the board, and I doubt a bet is worth the risk of a checkraise bluff or checkraise semi-bluff.

I probably just check with the plan of calling a river bet and hating it. But, hell, we will be getting 7:1.
08-07-2008 , 02:46 PM
he is definitely not folding pair here (according to last hand especially) so he wont fold better hand, just hope he will not try to bluff you much on the river as this should be "fold to a bet most of the time even against maniac" hand
08-07-2008 , 03:41 PM
I don't like capping against 2 players here pf. I probably just fold but I think calling and playing for set value is better than capping unless you think we can fold out the button.

As played i'd c/f the turn, it's hard to imagine a hand we're ahead of.
08-07-2008 , 04:06 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by numbnuts007
I don't like capping against 2 players here pf. I probably just fold but I think calling and playing for set value is better than capping unless you think we can fold out the button.

As played i'd c/f the turn, it's hard to imagine a hand we're ahead of.
Hes not against 2 players, its HU.

First hand I would play the same
Second hand I would check turn and fold river ui. not too many hands that we beat here.
08-07-2008 , 04:10 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by numbnuts007
I don't like capping against 2 players here pf. I probably just fold but I think calling and playing for set value is better than capping unless you think we can fold out the button.

As played i'd c/f the turn, it's hard to imagine a hand we're ahead of.
The button was a nitty TAG. This is pretty standard for me. He is going to fold a lot.
08-07-2008 , 05:17 PM
yeh, pf is an obvious cap, i'm actually tempted to just let him have this one. I definitely do not bet the turn. His flop c/c makes it look a lot like he has exactly Ax, Kx, or a weaker pair that he wants to show down. If he was going to bluff again like the first hand he'd be raising, same goes for any decent pair. I think I check behind the turn and fold to his river bet. We can always hope he doesn't turn Ace hi into a bluff, but I think you'll be beat too often to call.

Edit: One more thing to take into account is that if we call his inevitable river bet, we will be getting value-towned by a ****load of better one pair hands (even 9x imo), so i think we really just need to give it up UI.
08-07-2008 , 08:16 PM
That is how I played it Tryp. I wasn't sure if I could have folded a river bet to this guy, but he didn't bet anyway and showed 77. I think a fold is probably best. This guy eventually started to try and play well post-flop (as these guys usually do). You're right though that when he's just calling on a board like this it's likely a weakly made hand that doesn't want to fold.

      
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