a hand from this thread: http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/ne...newthread&f=22

villain is a TAG, steals button 30% of the time, 21/17/2.1 over a bunch of datamined hands


Poker Stars $3/$6 Limit Hold'em - 6 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

Pre Flop: (1.333 SB) Hero is BB with A 3
3 folds, BTN raises, 1 fold, Hero calls

Flop: (7 SB) K 8 2 (3 players)
hero says: now what?

I never liked these spots.

I don't like check/calling unless you have some plan to bluff later on. Check/raising is a nice pretense to following up on the turn, especially on a dry board like this. Check/folding is okay since you don't have anything.

Translation: I don't know what to do either.

The K is a really bad card here because it kills so much of his range you could beat with A high. I think I like a c/f here unless you have reason to believe he can fold a lot of PPs and better Ace highs in spots like this.

c/c with the intention to call down safe cards. you have too much equity to c/f and c/r doesn't make much sense because i see people call down AJ here all day.

this is a spot where specific reads are very important because they make turn and river decisions much easier.

meh, i just c/f it... even if u know he's pushing you around, the pot is small enough that you cant really do anything about it.

if i see a pattern that he's doing this to other people i will start c/raising and barrel and all that fun stuff.

It's a pretty meh spot but we just have too much equity versus a 30% range to c/f and c/r or any plan involving bluffing doesn't make much sense since readless we can't assume he folds many better hands at all. So start with c/c.

Maybe I'm ******ed but I'm just not seeing how we have enough equity to ever just call down here. Against a 30% BTN range of {22+, A2s+, A3o+, K5s+, K9o+, Q9s+, QTo+, J9s+, JTo, T9s} we have slightly less than 30% equity--you could even make an argument to weight this range more toward kings and shave a few hands off the bottom. A problem I foresee is the number of bets we win from inferior hands. We're getting valuetowned by all Kx, 8x and most PPs on most boards, but how many barrels will he fire with JTs or QJo? We'll also be folding any Q, J, or T turn/river.

As for turning the hand into a bluff, it really depends on how well he plays post. If we can only make him fold the Qx and Jx hands then I think it's a losing proposition. If he's capable of laying down a lot of the aces that have us beat and also 33-77, then bluffing may be viable (didn't work out the math though). I really like c/f in this spot.

I'd peel and fold the turn UI. This isn't a board where people double barrel air much.

i wouldn't assume that; when we just c/c we look so weak... we're pretty much asking for another barrel unless he decides to give up with some random missed hand, which is unlikely.