Why are we so kind to pedophiles? - Page 3 - Politics version 7.0 -- Two Plus Two Poker Forums

This is likely trivially true if you're generous enough with your definition of "cost/benefit analysis". What's in dispute is whether or not the analysis employed by your typical criminal is sophisticated enough to include a fair approximation of their chances of being caught.

Trivially true indeed but the discussion in this thread was giving us "they don't consider the consequences/just don't think they'll be caught". I mean, my dog is obviously weighing the consequences and chances he'll be caught when considering whether or not to help himself to the roast on the kitchen table.

Quote:

I don't think that's true, unless 'the likelihood of on-site armed resistance' is a subset of 'the likelihood of getting caught'. I suppose being shot does constitute a form of capture, but I don't agree that the above represents a full-blooded reasoning process about the likelihood of capture.

And obviously there's variability. The crew that inspired Heat, sure, they probably had a fine understanding of their chances. I very much doubt they're a representative example.

The chances of armed resistance around here are ~0. The reason we don't see many bank robberies here is because the FBI joins the investigation on all bank robberies, making capture a lot more likely. When you rob the gas station, the file ends up in the bottom of Mahan and Polk's pile.

11-22-2014 , 05:36 AM

#53

All-In Flynn

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Mar 2007 Posts: 10,923

Quote:

Originally Posted by JayTeeMe

I already explained this. It's trivially true if you're prepared to accept as "a cost/benefit analysis" something like:

Benefit: I would like to do that.
Cost: In order to do that, I would have to do it.
Conclusion: I should do that.

If we get more exclusive about what will pass muster as an actual analysis, then I think it's pretty questionable whether a lot of criminals actually employ one.

Quote:

Where's 'around here'? You're telling me in a country with like 100 million guns, there are banks that don't have at least one armed guard? I mean, I guess I can't argue, because I don't know, but that's very surprising to me.

11-22-2014 , 05:53 AM

#54

JayTeeMe

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jan 2008 Posts: 29,411

I've never seen an armed guard in a bank in the upper midwest, no.

11-22-2014 , 06:06 AM

#55

All-In Flynn

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Mar 2007 Posts: 10,923

Crazy. And how often do gas stations get knocked over around your way?

11-22-2014 , 06:19 AM

#56

FeralCreature

veteran

Join Date: Jul 2012 Posts: 3,148

Quote:

Originally Posted by JayTeeMe

Yeah this. In the Dutch report I mentioned earlier, the crime to commit is burglary. What happens with those is you file a police report, hopefully insurance pays for your damages and nobody every investigates anything whatsoever. Chances of getting caught are close to zero, you probably only get caught when trying to sell your stolen goods.

11-22-2014 , 06:58 AM

#57

JayTeeMe

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jan 2008 Posts: 29,411

Quote:

Originally Posted by All-In Flynn

Crazy. And how often do gas stations get knocked over around your way?

50.7 robberies/100k in 2013
460 burglaries
1970 thefts

Not exactly sure what the difference is.

Do you guys have armed guards in banks in Ireland?

11-22-2014 , 07:44 AM

#58

All-In Flynn

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Mar 2007 Posts: 10,923

Quote:

Originally Posted by JayTeeMe

Do you guys have armed guards in banks in Ireland?

No, but we don't generally have armed guards. Regular cops don't carry guns here, even.

11-22-2014 , 10:03 AM

#59

kioshk

Nixonian

Join Date: Oct 2006 Posts: 92,966

There's a good Always Sunny where Dennis gets mistaken for a child molester.

Page 3 of 3

First

1 2 3

Last

...

Page 3 of 3

First

1 2 3

Last