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Old 03-24-2017, 03:38 PM   #101
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Re: Voter ID and claims of fraud

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Originally Posted by goofyballer View Post
Okay, then per forum rules you cannot claim the number is "obviously less than 50k". Good try!
That seems like a dumb rule. That unsupported claim is what highlighted where the problem is. In a world where only 1-5k voters would be affected by voter ID laws and there is some substantially higher levels of fraud, these laws could actually make sense.

Clearly, most people who think voter ID laws are bad would think those assumptions are wrong and so the conversation should shift towards data/confidence intervals and that sort of fun stuff.

Last edited by TheMadcap; 03-24-2017 at 03:45 PM.
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Old 03-24-2017, 03:42 PM   #102
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Re: Voter ID and claims of fraud

It's not quite the rule. Now the figure has been challenged it has to be backed up or moved on from. That's a good way for the discussion to progress isn't it?

The alternative is constant repetition of unsupported claims.
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Old 03-24-2017, 04:11 PM   #103
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Re: Voter ID and claims of fraud

Yeah, that certainly sounds more reasonable. I'd hope that this progression would happen organically but I'm not enough of an optimist to think that it actually would.
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Old 03-24-2017, 04:14 PM   #104
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Re: Voter ID and claims of fraud

chez, the first 100 posts ITT are mainly a discussion about how many people would be/are prevented from voting because of voter ID laws and how much voter fraud there is in the US. In general conservatives ITT have said there aren't that many ppl prevented from voting and there is significant voter fraud while liberals have said the opposite. If we searched the internet for guesses for how prevalent these 2 things are we would come up with huge ranges that wouldn't prove anything beyond the fact that nobody has a clue about either of these numbers.
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Old 03-24-2017, 04:17 PM   #105
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Re: Voter ID and claims of fraud

It has been cited ITT that hundreds of thousands of people in a single state in this country don't have the ID that their state says they need in order to vote. That isn't in dispute, you just handwave it away because you think it means they must not want to vote.
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Old 03-24-2017, 04:25 PM   #106
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Re: Voter ID and claims of fraud

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Originally Posted by goofyballer View Post
It has been cited ITT that hundreds of thousands of people in a single state in this country don't have the ID that their state says they need in order to vote. That isn't in dispute, you just handwave it away because you think it means they must not want to vote.
I have never denied there are more than 100k people in the US that don't have a required ID to vote. I never hand waved this fact - I directly talked about it more than once. However, not having an ID is very different from the people who can't get an ID and if they could get it would vote.
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Old 03-24-2017, 04:40 PM   #107
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Re: Voter ID and claims of fraud

I suppose you could start by trying to get a figure on how many who don't have the sort of ID that would be required to vote under new voter ID laws currently vote where such ID isn't required. That would give a plausible upper bound.

A far bigger concern imo is whether those without suitable ID are skewed towards particular groups.
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Old 03-24-2017, 04:45 PM   #108
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Re: Voter ID and claims of fraud

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I suppose you could start by trying to get a figure on how many who don't have the sort of ID that would be required to vote under new voter ID laws currently vote where such ID isn't required. That would give a plausible upper bound.

A far bigger concern imo is whether those without suitable ID are skewed towards particular groups.
As a federal court found:

Quote:
A federal appeals court decisively struck down North Carolina’s voter identification law on Friday, saying its provisions deliberately “target African-Americans with almost surgical precision” in an effort to depress black turnout at the polls.
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Old 03-24-2017, 05:19 PM   #109
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Re: Voter ID and claims of fraud

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Originally Posted by bahbahmickey View Post
I have never denied there are more than 100k people in the US that don't have a required ID to vote. I never hand waved this fact - I directly talked about it more than once. However, not having an ID is very different from the people who can't get an ID and if they could get it would vote.
http://www.economist.com/blogs/democ...2016/05/got-id

The number cited was 600k in Texas. Extrapolating from there but rounding down on each step that would be ~4mil+ people affected nationwide.

Per the article, Texas has the strictest laws in the country and so we can expect the actual number to be smaller than 4mil so let's cut it in half to account for this and in half again to account for voters who are registered but unlikely to vote, does it seem likely that 995,000 of the remaining million will all go out and get the ID that they need?
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Old 03-26-2017, 08:22 PM   #110
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Re: Voter ID and claims of fraud

Well I don't think they'll even want to vote, so let's make sure they can't. What harm does it do? As long as that one fraudulent vote that no one has ever shown me proof of ever even occurring doesn't get cast, I'm happy with the collateral damage.
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Old 03-27-2017, 11:56 AM   #111
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Re: Voter ID and claims of fraud

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Originally Posted by chezlaw View Post
I suppose you could start by trying to get a figure on how many who don't have the sort of ID that would be required to vote under new voter ID laws currently vote where such ID isn't required. That would give a plausible upper bound.

A far bigger concern imo is whether those without suitable ID are skewed towards particular groups.
Yeah, you could guess at the number of people w/o the needed ID. Then guess how many of those people actually can't get the ID (to exclude those who haven't tried). Lastly, then you could guess as to how many of those that can't get the ID would vote if they had it.

Cliffs: nobody knows the real number and anyone throwing out numbers is guessing
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Old 03-27-2017, 12:18 PM   #112
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Re: Voter ID and claims of fraud

Quote:
Originally Posted by TheMadcap View Post
http://www.economist.com/blogs/democ...2016/05/got-id

The number cited was 600k in Texas. Extrapolating from there but rounding down on each step that would be ~4mil+ people affected nationwide.

Per the article, Texas has the strictest laws in the country and so we can expect the actual number to be smaller than 4mil so let's cut it in half to account for this and in half again to account for voters who are registered but unlikely to vote, does it seem likely that 995,000 of the remaining million will all go out and get the ID that they need?
Thank you for your guess of 995k people. Cutting 4M in half twice seems like some very simple math even when compared to how you came up with the original 4M number.

me: IF there are 4M* people w/o the required ID how many of them have tried to get the ID but can't
you: 2M because those people have either tried or haven't tried to get it

me: IF there are 2M* people w/o the required ID who have tried to get it but can't how many of them would vote if they got it
you: 1M because they would either vote or they wouldn't
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Old 03-27-2017, 12:20 PM   #113
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Re: Voter ID and claims of fraud

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There are thousands and thousands of laws in the US. Please name 10 that aren't considered racist using this same logic.
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Old 03-27-2017, 12:45 PM   #114
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Re: Voter ID and claims of fraud

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There are thousands and thousands of laws in the US. Please name 10 that aren't considered racist using this same logic.
You think every law in this country targets black people with surgical precision?

Chez, how does one argue against this level of stupidity? Help me out, please, I don't know how a "content" thread has any hope of remaining about "content" when this is what we have to deal with.
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Old 03-27-2017, 02:13 PM   #115
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Re: Voter ID and claims of fraud

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You think every law in this country targets black people with surgical precision?

Chez, how does one argue against this level of stupidity? Help me out, please, I don't know how a "content" thread has any hope of remaining about "content" when this is what we have to deal with.
I never said a huge majority of laws were racist against black people. I said they were racist - you just forgot other races face racism as well.

Chez, how does one argue against this level of stupidity? Help me out, please, I don't know how a "content" thread has any hope of remaining about "content" when this is what we have to deal with.
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Old 03-27-2017, 02:17 PM   #116
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Re: Voter ID and claims of fraud

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I never said a huge majority of laws were racist against black people. I said they were racist
This is no less stupid than what you said before
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Old 03-27-2017, 03:06 PM   #117
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Re: President Trump

the voter suppression argument is just feeble. its a dirty political tactic to sway votes in their favor, or so they believe. they don't give a rats ass as to the color of the votes and the policy itself is color blind. both parties try to disguise dirty tactics to tilt the game in their favor. eliminating voter fraud is a valid pursuit but obviously they are motivated by their belief that it will favor them in turnout. the left does this with all the issues surrounding immigration and citizenship. if you don't think the dem's are fully aware of the voting demographics and how their policies are importing votes, your just ignorant or delusional. its politics and its dirty. both sides do it

the funny thing about the claims of racism here is the racism of low expectations from those crying racism. oh the evil rep's trying to make people get ID, do you know how much that is to ask of someone of color? those rep's are so racist! cough cough, um yeah ok



of course a judge ruling it as racist is going to claim a completely color blind policy with the grand injustice of requiring people to obtain ID is going to describe it as surgical. its just like the drug laws penalizing crack more harshly than coke are surgical because they harm the black community most, right? its true the harm does fall more heavily in the black community but a few minutes of actual research will help you understand this retarded myth

another comical fallacy is the trump racist votes. the actual numbers don't tell you that story. he got more votes from minorities than romney. both in total and as a %. romney did better than cain iirc. just looking at the numbers in the swing states tells you that people voting for obama both once and twice voted were voting for trump

on top of all this, we have the evidence of random people screaming extremely offside things at trump rallies. zomg the kkk supports trump and now this!!!!!!.... um, they are definitely the fringe. this isn't mainstream. to try to conflate the two is absurd. whats mainstream is openly racist and divisive beliefs on the left. its not extremists, its mainstream. its mainstream to see both obama and hilary perpetuating the wage gap myth. that is a myth that your average junior high student could dismantle. they proudly perpetuate it and it is intentionally divisive. it perpetuates anger, resentment, and division. the poster child for arrogantly obnoxious far left morons johnn oliver demonstrates this perfectly and he and his staff are just far to ignorant to realize it. but of course part of what oliver is saying is true.

go to 5:05 for the first piece of truth oliver delivers. he unknowingly owns obama


here is what mainstream left looks like... and its actually racist


If you don't think perpetuating lies and resentment is a bad thing, you're a total moron. thats mainstream on the left. the rebuttal to this isn't omg look at trump and look at "trumpkins", have a look in the mirror and stop participating and supporting it. if you have the inclination to say "lol utoobz" and pretend you read books, go read about class based guilt and resentment in the soviet union and check the body count. oliver is right, its in monkeys, its in human history, and its still a problem. thats why the left uses this tactic, it works. if you would like some more utoobz, i can gladly help you find obama stirring up resentment with a compelling presentation perpetuating the wage gap myth. he did it with surgical precision. or perhaps you prefer to hear obama lecture cops on how they are racist at the funeral of a murdered white cop

racists exist. moron trump supporters are abundant. but pay attention to whats mainstream. the mainstream left is a disaster and full of blatant bigotry in the name of moral superiority. the deomocrats have done an amazing job to make everyone forget about their legacy of racism and sexism but unfortunately for them, this SJW era will just be another black mark on their legacy of bigotry and division. anyone participating in identity politics is going to be on the wrong side of history
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Old 03-27-2017, 03:28 PM   #118
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Re: President Trump

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Originally Posted by bahbahmickey View Post
Please explain what laws republicans widely support that you consider voter suppression and why you consider them racist. Also, if your explanation of why healthcare access is racist is different than the voter suppression please explain it as well.
https://www.aclu.org/issues/voting-r...er-suppression
Quote:

VOTING RIGHTS 2016: WHAT'S AT STAKE

Voting rights are under attack nationwide as states pass voter suppression laws. These laws lead to significant burdens for eligible voters trying to exercise their most fundamental constitutional right. Since 2008, states across the country have passed measures to make it harder for Americans—particularly black people, the elderly, students, and people with disabilities—to exercise their fundamental right to cast a ballot. These measures include cuts to early voting, voter ID laws, and purges of voter rolls.

The ACLU is engaged in advocacy and litigation across the country to get rid of these harmful voter suppression measures once and for all.
https://www.aclu.org/map/battle-prot...es-passed-2013
https://www.aclu.org/facts-about-voter-suppression
https://www.aclu.org/map/voter-suppr...ntial-election
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Old 03-27-2017, 03:30 PM   #119
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Re: President Trump

Court Rules NC Voter ID Law 'Intentionally Discriminatory'

'With surgical precision, North Carolina tried to eliminate voting practices disproportionately used by African-Americans'

http://www.commondreams.org/news/201...discriminatory
Quote:
"With surgical precision, North Carolina tried to eliminate voting practices disproportionately used by African-Americans. This ruling is a stinging rebuke of the state's attempt to undermine African-American voter participation, which had surged over the last decade," said Dale Ho, director of the American Civil Liberties Union's (ACLU) Voting Rights Project. "It is a major victory for North Carolina voters and for voting rights."

"We are happy today that the 4th Circuit's Court of Appeals' decision exposed the racist intent of the extremist element of our government in North Carolina," said Rev. Dr. William J. Barber, II, president of the North Carolina State Conference of the NAACP.

"In 2013, this government took our voting system—which was a model for the nation in encouraging people to vote, not discouraging them—and they made it into the worst voter suppression act in the country," Barber added. "Today the 4th Circuit’s decision gives North Carolinians back an electoral system that allows the people of North Carolina to vote freely this fall."

After the law was enacted in 2013, the "U.S. Justice Department, state NAACP, League of Women Voters and others sued the state, saying the restrictions violated the federal Voting Rights Act and the Constitution," AP notes.

As Common Dreams reported, the legal fight in North Carolina was "watched closely by activists and legal experts nationwide, as it is one of the first tests to a restrictive election reform law passed by a conservative legislature in the wake of the Supreme Court's dismantling of key portions of the Voting Rights Act in 2013."

The decision (pdf) argued that a prior ruling by a federal judge "missed the forest in carefully surveying the many trees. This failure of perspective led the court to ignore critical facets bearing on legislative intent, including the inextricable link between race and politics in North Carolina." The ruling continued:

[…] on the day after the Supreme Court issued Shelby County v. Holder, 133 S. Ct. 2612 (2013), eliminating preclearance obligations, a leader of the party that newly dominated the legislature (and the party that rarely enjoyed African American support) announced an intention to enact what he characterized as an ‘omnibus’ election law. Before enacting that law, the legislature requested data on the use, by race, of a number of voting practices. Upon receipt of the race data, the General Assembly enacted legislation that restricted voting an registration in five different ways, all of which disproportionately affected African Americans.

In response to claims that intentional racial discrimination animated its action, the State offered only meager justifications. Although the new provisions target African Americans with almost surgical precision, they constitute inapt remedies for the problems assuredly justifying them and, in fact, impose cures for problems that did not exist. Thus the asserted justifications cannot and do not conceal the State’s true motivation.
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Old 03-27-2017, 03:31 PM   #120
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Re: President Trump

Federal Court Rules Texas’ ID Law Violates Voting Rights Act
https://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/21/u...ights-act.html
Quote:
HOUSTON — A federal appeals court on Wednesday ruled that Texas’ voter identification law, one of the strictest in the country, violated the Voting Rights Act and that the state must find ways to accommodate voters who face hardships in obtaining the necessary documents.

Democrats and voting rights advocates hailed the ruling as a significant victory in one of the nation’s most closely watched voting rights cases. It was the fourth time in nearly four years that a federal court found that the Texas law discriminated against or disproportionately affected black and Hispanic voters.

“The court got it right, recognizing the stink of discrimination,” said Trey Martinez Fischer, a state representative who is the chairman of the Mexican-American Legislative Caucus, one of several minority groups, voters and Democratic lawmakers who sued Texas over the law.

The United States Court of Appeals for the Fifth Circuit, in New Orleans, found that the law had a discriminatory effect on blacks and Latinos, who often lack the forms of identification required under the Texas law. But the ruling did not strike down the law entirely, ruling instead that new procedures must be found to assist potential voters lacking the required identification.

The ruling also sent back for reconsideration the question of whether Texas legislators had acted with a discriminatory purpose in passing the law in 2011, a finding that would have forced new judicial oversight of any changes in Texas election rules.

Gov. Greg Abbott, a Republican who defended the voter ID law against legal challenges when he was the state’s attorney general, said the court had come to the wrong conclusion. Republican lawmakers have long defended the law, saying it is needed to prevent voter fraud.
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Old 03-27-2017, 03:32 PM   #121
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Re: President Trump

Voter ID Laws Are Discriminatory Efforts to Disenfranchise, Courts Rule
http://www.newsweek.com/voter-id-law...anchise-485708
Quote:
Two federal rulings issued this week strike at the core of states' voter identification laws, judging at least two states' efforts to allegedly combat voter fraud were thinly veiled attempts to disenfranchise the poor and minorities.

The rulings finding North Carolina and Wisconsin's voter ID programs largely unconstitutional employed often blistering language that endorses the criticisms often levied against such legislative efforts—they're a Republican attempt to suppress voters inclined to vote Democratic. In a stinging rebuke, the North Carolina ruling went beyond finding that its provisions merely disenfranchised voters, opining that the effort was the legislature's deliberate intent in a state that had been largely subject to federal oversight under Voting Rights Act provisions that have since been struck down by the U.S. Supreme Court.

The 83-page decision by the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Fourth Circuit scrapped North Carolina's requirement of voters to present photo ID at polls, restored early voting and reinstated voters' ability to register on election day in overturning a 2013 District Court decision that upheld North Carolina's restrictive voting practices. In Wisconsin, the federal District Court ordered the state to make photo IDs more available to voters and to expand the ID options that would be acceptable at the polls, while also scrapping provisions that limited absentee ballot access.
"In many ways, the challenged provisions in (the North Carolina law) constitute solutions in search of a problem," the Fourth Circuit ruling states. "The only clear factor linking these various 'reforms' is their impact on African American voters. The record thus makes obvious that the 'problem' the majority in the General Assembly sought to remedy was emerging support for the minority party. Identifying and restricting the ways African Americans vote was an easy and effective way to do so."
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Old 03-27-2017, 03:33 PM   #122
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Re: President Trump

How Voter ID Laws Discriminate
A new comprehensive study finds evidence that strict voting laws do suppress the ballot along racial lines.
https://www.theatlantic.com/politics...-study/517218/
Quote:
For all the fervor of the current debate over voter ID laws, there’s a startling lack of good data on their effects. As of the 2016 election, 33 states have a voter identification law, with 12 of those considered “strict” requirements.

After the 2013 Shelby County v. Holder Supreme Court case weakened federal oversight over state and county election laws, the debate over whether these and other more restrictive laws have discriminatory effects has mostly been waged in the realms of ideology and intent, with most existing studies relying on data limited by time, place, or bias.

The catch-22 of course is that the laws have to be passed and solidly in place first to have robust longitudinal data on their effects, which in this case would mean potentially discriminatory effects would have already impacted elections. A new study from researchers Zoltan Hajnal, Nazita Lajevardi, and Lindsay Nielson at the University of California San Diego is one of the first to analyze certified votes across all states after the implementation of voter laws in multiple elections, and it found just that kind of racially discriminatory impact.

Specifically, they found “that strict photo identification laws have a differentially negative impact on the turnout of Hispanics, Blacks, and mixed-race Americans in primaries and general elections.”

The authors note that the existing research tends to point to three things: that strict voter ID laws requiring identification to cast a ballot do in fact reduce turnout by some amount, that turnout reduction tends to work in Republicans’ favor, and that differential effects have been observed along class and education lines, but not race. But the UCSD researchers call those conclusions into question, noting that analyses based on elections data before 2014 could not have collected comprehensive enough data to rule out racial suppression, and that analyses that sidestep that limitation by relying on survey data tend to fall victim to people of color over-reporting if they voted in prior elections.

According to the new study, the new approach addresses these problems by assessing nationwide votes in the 2008 and 2012 primary and general elections using responses from the Cooperative Congressional Election Studies, a large national survey that validates self-attestation of voting status with voting records. The researchers used this dataset to compare turnout in elections where strict voter ID had been implemented versus those where it hadn’t, and measured the gap in turnout between races.

Using this refined methodology, researchers found that strict ID laws doubled the turnout gap between whites and Latinos in the general elections, and almost doubled the white-black turnout gap in primary elections. And given that their turnout models incorporate the known surge of turnout among minorities spurred by Barack Obama’s candidacy, they might actually be underestimating the overall suppression effects of voter ID law. “I couldn’t find a compelling way to control for the potential Obama effect and I do think his presence might have reduced the effect of voter ID laws in 2008 and 2012,” Hajnal said in an email. “Although in order for that to happen, Obama’s effects on minority turnout would have to be especially pronounced in strict ID law states.”
Strict photo identification laws have a differentially negative impact on the turnout of Hispanics, Blacks, and mixed-race Americans.

In an article in the Washington Post summarizing their research, the authors expound on the political conclusions of their work:

By instituting strict voter ID laws, states can alter the electorate and shift outcomes toward those on the right. Where these laws are enacted, the influence of Democrats and liberals wanes and the power of Republicans grows. Unsurprisingly, these strict ID laws are passed almost exclusively by Republican legislatures.
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Old 03-27-2017, 04:10 PM   #123
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Re: President Trump

there is absolutely no chance that valdez will read any of that einbert.

and I mean, ya so what if a bunch of high courts in america claimed the laws were discriminatory, we got some guy from fox news interviewing ppl on the street. I mean, how can you argue with that?
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Old 03-27-2017, 04:11 PM   #124
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Re: President Trump

einbert, posting 8 links isn't going to get a response from me unless you include some of your own original work in there. Maybe write what you think the author means by some of it or how it pertains to what we are talking about.

Better yet, just directly answer my question. It should go something like: I think requiring an ID to vote is racist because there is a higher % of AA who don't have IDs.
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Old 03-27-2017, 04:19 PM   #125
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Re: President Trump

I'm not gonna do work that's already been done. The court rulings are there, the research is all there, done by experts that know this stuff better than me. If you're not willing to read it you're not willing to engage in an honest conversation.
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