WTI average price YTD is $96.06. Current price is $105. So if you think pricing is going to be much higher than it has been YTD, you must think oil prices are going up. What is your definition of "much higher"

I have no idea where you are getting $87 or how you think that could be correct if you think oil prices have been over $100 for "quite awhile"

EDIT: or why you told me oil prices have been over $100 for quite awhile then linked me to something that shows oil prices have been under $100 for quite awhile.

I'm seeing $94.99 ave. YTD, and currently a $107 spot for WTI.

Now you're changing the parameters of the bet as you discover how untenable your position is. You said the average price for the rest of the year would be lower than current average - $95. If the price is already at $107 (and rising), and you predict <$95 for the rest of 2013, you'd better be praying for a precipitous drop.

And any plunge in oil price to the levels you're hopeful for would crush tight oil investment even further.

In other words, you're drawing dead.

I linked you to a list of prices through April of this year, so I could provide something that shows how ridiculous your "price has leveled off for three years" nonsense. If you wanna hedge your bet up to $95, no problem.

Higher than $107 is an ever greater problem for your overall ******ed "no problem" argument. Much lower than $85, which you'll need to get back under $95 for the year? Also a problem for your overall ******ed "no problem" argument.

And, to me, 3 wks above $100 for WTI is "quite a while." At least for anyone actually paying attention to the subject material, which you clearly aren't. Instead, you're learning as you go along.

Nope, not changing anything and you still dont have the prices right. Im literally reading them off of a bloomberg terminal.

Your claim was that prices would be much higher than they have been year to date. I offered to test your statement by either betting that prices would be "much higher" the rest of the year than year to date or by betting they'd be lower for the rest of the year than year to date if I got odds (since the statement of yours we are testing is that they'd be "much higher" for the rest of the year than year to date, you should be able to give odds at being merely a penny higher)

As I expected though, you won't define much higher and again moved goalposts. This is why the whole forum laughs at you and you are only allowed in the lolLirva forum.

See above, lolJiggs. Still not sure you can read.

Also looooooooool at three weeks being quite awhile. Yeah, that's ages.

Straight from Bloomberg

Average WTI price for 2011: $96.62
Average WTI price for 2012: $95.16
Average WTI price for 2013: $96.13

Good call Jiggs, prices are skyrocketing

Bloomberg lists futures price (based on Sept. contracts), not spot price ... do you even understand the difference?

Jesus Christ, are you horrible at this.

Link your reference, and I'll show you how wrong you are. At this point, it's just not fair to bet with you. You're clearly learning as you go along.

See, told you he wasn't going to make a concrete bet in line with his goofy statement.

Lol Jiggs.

Lol me for quasi-seriously engaging I guess.

Translation: "*shame*... no, I don't actually understand the difference between spot price and futures price. ... it's all the same to me."

Run along, little cornucopian. Price discussion only confuses you.

Even if he declared such criteria, and it came true, he'd say it wasn't true on some technicality.

Jiggs, what does EIA show for annual WTI spot prices in '11 and '12 under the data tab in the link below? Or Brent if you like that better given the (now closing) differentials between the two? (Hint: both show '11 and '12 prices within a dollar of each other)

Given what I posted earlier, do you think if you spend the time to do the average for '13 they will show increasing, decreasing or flat prices for '13?

Christ do you have an aversion to data. There won't be a third citation coming.

http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pri_spt_s1_a.htm

I did declare such.

Less grunching, more reading.

Different criteria than the statement I was betting against then you backed out then you embarassed yourself.

Still never defined much higher either.

Look at you, jumping from chart to chart, so desperately trying to find ANY numbers that can help you pretend prices are stable and manageable. All while running from the reality that you don't know there's a difference in spot vs. futures.

Adorable.

If you want to get into a semantics argument regarding convenient 12-month ranges, or vague "going on three years" silliness, well, ok. But when you're done having fun with numbers, using parameters only you want, the stark reality is that oil price (both nominal and real) trend is up, up, up...

If you want to pretend it's just a summer surge, that loses too, as it was just $87 last summer, and $107 now.

In any event, barring a new global recession, by the end of the year, the 2013 average is going to climb once again compared to 2012.

So, unsustainable high price or recession. Your dumb "easy game" argument loses either way. If price dropped to, say $80-$85 and stayed there, so as to (barely) maintain investment incentive for the junk oil you worship, you might have an argument.

LOL... Project much?

He's asking about an entirely different post that you weren't involved in.

Less drinking, more paying attention.

The only person embarrassed the last couple pages would be you. No one else, troll.

I am proud that you've probably tripled your knowledge of this subject matter over just the last 20 posts or so, however.

peak oil

Everything I posted showed the same price trend.

Prices are going up except for the fact that the benchmarks show nominal prices essentially flat on average since 2011 and flat for the year so far. Another technicality I guess.

and by the way, extra special lulz at the overall implied lollogic that $96 oil is anything but a bad thing for the global economy.

in other words: "nevermind that global growth forcasts keeping getting reduced almost every time they're announced... pay no attention to that... even though price is climbing once again, the 'average' price has been 'flat' at $96 for two years!"

FAIL.

maybe between 2014-2015, price will be "flat" at $111 ... "proof" that everything is fine.

Stepping back from the assertion that prices have risen over the last several years is a good baby step. Hope you can build on that tomorrow.

where goofy you gets to define what "several years" refers to?

is it 5, or just "going on 3" like you prefer?

meanwhile, 2013 currently isn't looking too good for your "prices have settled" narrative.

Have you "built" anything since you made the mistake of taking a try at the "markets will fix everything" play? Doesn't seem like it. ... You're pretty much hitless for June/July on this issue, at this point.

So just to review, for anyone still following along: That's prices at $107 (and rising)... QE program nearly out of steam ... world engine continuing to sputter... shale gas production flat and rig count actually DOWN since last year (iirc). .. U.S. municipalities defaulting at unprecedented rates... EU in shambles.... China's growth slowing way down... Russia seemingly closing the curtain again, certainly militarizing ... Radical Muslim creep across Africa... noise about troops in Nigeria to guard their "not good enough" production rates ... on and on and on.

At what point do little Friedmanists admit, finally, that maybe their "no problem, markets will fix everything" storyline doesn't really fly after all?

Peak is here. Has been since 05-06 or so. All that remains is plateau for a while and then overall production decline, ... you know, just like the Pentagon warned in 08, and again in 10. ... Yeah, might be time to adjust policy.

Pentagon alert from ... 2008: "Towards a "severe energy crisis"

By 2012, surplus oil production capacity could entirely disappear, and as early as 2015, the shortfall in output could reach nearly 10 MBD. ...

The implications for future conflict are ominous. If the major developed and developing states do not undertake a massive expansion of production and refining capabilities, a severe energy crunch is inevitable.

Well, a massive expansion was undertaken. And we appear to have reach the limits of that effort. ... Unfortunately, the giant conventional fields are still dying. Relentlessly.

*edit: note that 'surplus production' refers to spare capacity, or what extra can be drilled in an emergency due to some crisis somewhere on the planet. A lot of people believe its "spare capacity" confidence that really drives the speculation aspect of oil price.

That 5 year muni default rate of .04%.....unprecedented carnage!

Oil prices....on the rise even though the average price will be flat from '11-'13

Jiggs continuing to not understand supply demand curves

Peaaaaaaaakkkkk craccckppppottt

Things do in fact seem pretty much fine.

By 2012 surplus production might disappear is wrong only due to the technicality that its 2013 and there is still surplus production capacity.

EIA spot pricing data

WTI

'11: 94.88
'12: 94.05
'13 YTD: 95.38

Brent

'11: 111.26
'12: 111.63
YTD: 107.42

Skyrocketing prices, definitely "much higher" this year!

maybe in your gated community.... there were people who didn't really feel the affects of the 1930s either.

but then, there's the rest of the world.

You realize that every time you try to average show prices (never with an actual link), they're different?

Routinely dishonest, and dumb.

Yeah, have to go all the way back to yesterday to find this link with the exact same prices. So your first sentence is demonstrably, 100% false.

I know WTI and Brent pricing data isnt as widely used as the famous Illinois grade crude pricing data that you linked to yesterday, but lets look at that as well.

http://inflationdata.com/Inflation/I...ices_Table.asp

Remember, this link was provided by you to show that prices were both A) increasing and B) well over $100 recently

Onto the data

2011: $87.04
2012: $86.46
2013 (partial year): $87.13

So third year of flat oil prices....oil down from peak 2008 prices.

Jiggs analysis...oil prices will continue to skyrocket and will end up much higher (note: definition of "much higher' not provided) this year.

Lol Jiggsreading, lolJiggsmath, lolJiggs. Id probably light myself on fire if I was so singularly obsessed with a subject as you are with oil and yet so completely wrong and ignorant on almost everything about it.

Now be a good boy Jiggsy, type up an angry response and dig up a five articles that dont say what you think they say. Fetch boy, fetch. That's why you've been banned from the adult forum, not good for anything but being a trained circus animal and a good laugh. Thanks for some comic relief during a long day.