Open Side Menu Go to the Top
Register
"The economy isn't coming back" "The economy isn't coming back"

07-13-2013 , 02:43 AM
I don't agree that the economy can't be saved. Beltway corruption and gridlock surely would need to end before anything could ever get done. Maybe a life sentence for the first Wall St. CEO caught engaging in massive financial fraud or polluting the earth. But that's in a perfect world.

In any event, "until you change the way money works, you change nothing."

"The economy isn't coming back"
science-pope.com via resilience.org
http://www.resilience.org/stories/20...-t-coming-back
Though the Obama administration might crow about a tepid recovery, even today’s insufficient economy is itself a lie, propped up by governments printing money to buy their own bonds and simulate growth. The Dow ascends to ever more lofty heights, and yet few believe it’s tied to improving conditions for regular people. China, the economic engine of the world, is now slowing precipitously, and experiencing serious market declines and confidence problems. Europe is an economic mess, and when the EU eventually implodes (it really is a when and not an if), it will send shocks through the rest of our globalized world.

Last edited by JiggsCasey; 07-13-2013 at 02:50 AM.
07-13-2013 , 02:51 AM
07-13-2013 , 03:36 AM
07-13-2013 , 04:50 AM
So, what you're saying is, if I want to move up to 10/20, I'm going to have to move?
07-13-2013 , 05:08 AM
Can't wait for PEEEEAKKKK UUUUTOOOOOOBBBZZZZ so tired of this ****.
07-13-2013 , 05:21 AM
Quote:
Europe is an economic mess, and when the EU eventually implodes (it really is a when and not an if), it will send shocks through the rest of our globalized world.
Iam really impressed how the US view always is, that Europe is the problem. Just compare the €/$ exchange rate. The € is still stronger compared to USD as it was in the time when the Euro was introduced.

The USA does have the same problem as the EU, in some respects even worse, the government of the USA isn´t even able to pass a budget. And while the EU works on the problems, they are widely ignored in the USA, the population consits of sheep who doesn´t take it to the street when government fails to deliver basic services, the security apparatus is way to big to be funded stable and your banking system is as bad as it was pre 2008. One of the only reason that the USA didn´t explode yet is that you manipulate the rating agencys into better rating´s. The USA is a cardhouse with a influental radikal right wing party that even thinks that they shouldn´t even pay for the cards that still hold the hole thing up.
07-13-2013 , 12:21 PM
I agree. The US is in worse shape than Europe.
07-13-2013 , 01:06 PM
Thread needs more YouTube cat.
07-13-2013 , 03:44 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by JacktheDumb
Iam really impressed how the US view always is, that Europe is the problem. Just compare the €/$ exchange rate. The € is still stronger compared to USD as it was in the time when the Euro was introduced.

The USA does have the same problem as the EU, in some respects even worse, the government of the USA isn´t even able to pass a budget. And while the EU works on the problems, they are widely ignored in the USA, the population consits of sheep who doesn´t take it to the street when government fails to deliver basic services, the security apparatus is way to big to be funded stable and your banking system is as bad as it was pre 2008. One of the only reason that the USA didn´t explode yet is that you manipulate the rating agencys into better rating´s. The USA is a cardhouse with a influental radikal right wing party that even thinks that they shouldn´t even pay for the cards that still hold the hole thing up.
[/indignant]
I don't think that's what the author is saying at all ... He's pretty much acknowledging that its a global scenario, not us vs. you.
07-13-2013 , 07:05 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by JiggsCasey
They lost me when they suggested deflation wasn't bad because people wouldn't have to pay as much for things. A second grader must have made this video.
07-13-2013 , 07:12 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by JiggsCasey
Quote:
Originally Posted by LirvA
07-13-2013 , 07:34 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by LetsGambool
Thread needs more YouTube cat.
Thank you
07-13-2013 , 08:18 PM
07-14-2013 , 04:28 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by campfirewest
They lost me when they suggested deflation wasn't bad because people wouldn't have to pay as much for things. A second grader must have made this video.
not sure they were saying literally that... to me it's rather satirical ... perhaps not you.... but some nuance was required there, ... yet it allows some people a convenient escape hatch. Fun game.

a fundamental question still remains, and trolls trolling doesn't seem to cover it for this segment:

where would we be today without TARP, QEx, and a bond-buying program to the uninterrupted tune of $85 billion per month?
07-14-2013 , 04:37 AM
They always take about European countries going under, what about the states in the US that are going under?
07-14-2013 , 04:39 AM
Price deflation isn't necessarily a bad thing.

Think about computers or TV's that keep going down in price. Nobody is getting hurt by that.

Monetary deflation can be problematic.
07-14-2013 , 04:45 AM
I saw this linked on zerohedge the other day. If accurate, it really contrasts with the 'no inflation' narrative.

07-14-2013 , 04:52 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by JimAfternoon
Price deflation isn't necessarily a bad thing.

Think about computers or TV's that keep going down in price. Nobody is getting hurt by that.

Monetary deflation can be problematic.
Deflation/inflation isn't one or two goods having lower/higher prices.

And your boy Hayek didn't care for it either.

It may increase your purchasing power. But it also increases the value of debt you may have.
07-14-2013 , 04:56 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by JimAfternoon
I saw this linked on zerohedge the other day. If accurate, it really contrasts with the 'no inflation' narrative.

I don't think there's a 'no inflation' narrative.

And that chart is foul in terms of some of the commodities being measured as inflationary.
07-14-2013 , 04:56 AM
We had this debate in another thread not long ago.

I think the strongest point made was that the US averaged ~3% deflation during the 19th century and still had tremendous growth.
07-14-2013 , 05:05 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by JimAfternoon
We had this debate in another thread not long ago.

I think the strongest point made was that the US averaged ~3% deflation during the 19th century and still had tremendous growth.
Yes. But that's moderate deflation. I don't think moderate deflation or inflation is going to disincentivize firms and investors too much and slow growth.
07-14-2013 , 05:06 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Paul D
Deflation/inflation isn't one or two goods having lower/higher prices.

And your boy Hayek didn't care for it either.

It may increase your purchasing power. But it also increases the value of debt you may have.
I'm not an advocate of deflation. I was just throwing my .02 in because I don't think it ruins the point of that xtranormal, which is pretty funny.
07-14-2013 , 05:17 AM
Watched that video. I really hope people aren't getting their economics lessons from those.
07-14-2013 , 05:20 AM
http://unctad.org/en/PublicationsLib...iscDP01_en.pdf

Quote:
1 Introduction
Since 2000, Commodity Dependent Developing Countries (CDDCs) have faced
multiple global food, energy and climate crises, compounded by the recent financial
and economic crises which have increased their vulnerability to excessive price
volatility3 in commodity markets. Moreover, structural vulnerabilities in most
CDDCs render their economies more vulnerable to increased commodity market
turbulence than developed countries, given their comparatively lower income and
high dependence on commodity exports. The World Bank estimates that 119 million
more people have been pushed into hunger as a result of the 2008 food crisis. There
are now an estimated 1.02 billion malnourished people worldwide (World Bank
2009).

Meanwhile, the FAO estimates that more than 75 million people were driven into
hunger between 2006 and 2010 (FAO 2011). LDCs and CDDCs were particularly
harmed by this crisis. Indeed, in most of the LDCs, consumed food is not processed
or at least, less than in the developed countries. Therefore, following the 2007-2008
food prices crisis, the affordability of food products became more worrying in
developing countries than in the developed ones. Another reason why the LDCs
were particularly affected by the food crisis is because they spend a larger share of
their income on food. Some low income countries spend up to 70-80 per cent of
their income on food (UNCTAD 2009).

Although supply and demand fundamentals played a significant role in the food
crisis outbreak, many other factors contributed to the economic turmoil. For
example, large increases in oil prices contributed to rising production costs and
drove food prices higher.
... (cont.)
wait for it...

Quote:
Policy recommendations and conclusions.

This paper investigates causality links between the crude oil price and, both coffees
and cocoa prices in the long-run. It appears that variations in coffee and cocoa prices
follow oil price variations with, respectively 4 and 3-year intervals. Nevertheless,
the hypothesis of a long-run equilibrium relationship only holds between oil and
cocoa prices meaning that, structural changes in the oil price will be directly
reflected in cocoa prices. ...

In summary, oil price developments have no significant effect on coffee price variability in the shortrun. On the other hand, policy-makers should closely monitor oil price surges as
they appear to strongly influence cocoa prices and their volatility in both the short
and long-run.

Last edited by JiggsCasey; 07-14-2013 at 05:45 AM.
07-14-2013 , 05:30 AM
I just watched it again, it's been years since I've seen it. Still think it's pretty funny.

The main issue i have with it is the criticism of buying treasuries in the secondary market.

      
m